After a very long delay, the 2020 Census data has arrived! In this first series of related posts, we will compared Columbus to national peer and Midwest metro areas. Metros used here are those that were within 1.5-2.5 million in either 2010 or 2020, as well as Midwest metros of 500,000 or more in either 2010 or 2020, and all Ohio metros.
Total Population by Metro Area by Year Green metros moved up in the rankings 2010-2020 and red moved down.
Rank
2010
2020
1
Chicago: 9,461,105
Chicago: 9,618,502
2
Detroit: 4,296,250
Detroit: 4,392,041
3
Minneapolis: 3,346,859
Minneapolis: 3,690,261
4
St. Louis: 2,787,701
St. Louis: 2,820,253
5
Pittsburgh: 2,356,285
Orlando: 2,673,376
6
Charlotte: 2,243,960
Charlotte: 2,660,329
7
Portland: 2,226,009
San Antonio: 2,558,143
8
Sacramento: 2,149,127
Portland: 2,512,859
9
San Antonio: 2,142,508
Sacramento: 2,379,382
10
Cincinnati: 2,137,667
Pittsburgh: 2,370,930
11
Orlando: 2,134,411
Austin: 2,283,371
12
Cleveland: 2,077,240
Las Vegas: 2,265,461
13
Kansas City: 2,009,240
Cincinnati: 2,256,884
14
Las Vegas: 1,951,269
Kansas City: 2,192,035
15
Columbus: 1,901,974
Columbus: 2,138,926
16
Indianapolis: 1,887,877
Indianapolis: 2,111,040
17
San Jose: 1,836,911
Cleveland: 2,088,251
18
Austin: 1,716,289
San Jose: 2,000,251
19
Virginia Beach: 1,713,954
Nashville: 1,989,519
20
Nashville: 1,646,200
Virginia Beach: 1,799,674
21
Providence: 1,600,852
Providence: 1,676,579
22
Milwaukee: 1,555,908
Jacksonville: 1,605,848
23
Jacksonville: 1,345,596
Milwaukee: 1,574,731
24
Grand Rapids: 993,670
Grand Rapids: 1,087,592
25
Omaha: 865,350
Omaha: 967,604
26
Dayton: 799,232
Dayton: 809,248
27
Akron: 703,200
Des Moines: 707,915
28
Toledo: 651,429
Akron: 701,449
29
Wichita: 623,061
Madison: 670,447
30
Des Moines: 606,475
Wichita: 643,768
31
Madison: 605,435
Toledo: 641,549
32
Youngstown: 565,773
Lansing: 548,248
33
Lansing: 534,684
Youngstown: 531,420
34
Canton: 404,422
Canton: 396,669
Columbus largely held its own in the rankings this decade, but it poised to eventually pass a few of the metros currently ahead of it.
Columbus had the 2nd highest growth in the Midwest after Minneapolis, and is growing much faster than 3 metros currently ranked ahead of it- Cincinnati, Kansas City and Pittsburgh- which it will likely pass at some point in the future. For Cincinnati, for example, current growth rates would suggest Columbus will pass it sometime around 2027. In any event, Columbus’ metro growth was the highest in its history, and about 10,000 more than occurred during the 2000s.
Data related to metro components of growth, such as immigration and deaths vs. births, have yet to be released. Those should come out sometime next month, and will be posted here when they do.
The Columbus area housing market update January 2021 report is now available! Let’s be honest, the current housing market is extremely tough to navigate right now. This is true not so much for sellers, but rather buyers who are finding it nearly impossible to find a home they like at a good price in the neighborhood they want. There are relatively few homes available on the market, and those that are tend to get tangled in bidding wars that ultimately jack up the average sales price for the whole area.
The cause of this boils down to one critical problem- supply. There just aren’t enough existing homes to meet demand, nor are there nearly enough new homes being built. NIMBYism, local zoning and more issues are generally preventing increased home density in and around Columbus, keeping many potential homebuyers- and renters- struggling to find a place to live.
I haven’t done a breakdown of the Columbus real estate market in some time. Because of the current situation, I thought it would be a good time to take a fresh look.
The data below is from the January market report, the latest one available.
First, let’s look at those local areas that had the most homes for sale.
# of New Listings By County, January 2021 Franklin: 1,291 Delaware: 187 Licking: 157 Fairfield: 129 Union: 64 Pickaway: 47 Madison: 28 Morrow: 27 Perry: 20 Hocking: 16 Perhaps unsurprisingly, Franklin County has the most new listing by far.
Change of New Listings by County January 2020 vs. January 2021 Morrow: +8.0% Fairfield: -5.8% Licking: -6.5% Franklin: -6.6% Union: -7.2% Perry: -13.0% Madison: -20.0% Pickaway: -23.0% Delaware: -31.0% Hocking: -42.9% New listings were generally down across all but one metro county, a continuing story even before the pandemic.
Average Sales Price by County in January 2021 Delaware: $430,684 Union: $312,742 Fairfield: $265,821 Pickaway: $256,235 Franklin: $253,852 Licking: $234,116 Morrow: $232,393 Madison: $231,396 Perry: $219,053 Hocking: $208,231 All counties saw the average sale price of homes sold exceed the $200K mark, but Delaware County remains the most expensive place to buy a home in the metro.
Change in Average Sales Price by County January 2020 vs. January 2021 Perry: +53.7% Pickaway: +36.4% Fairfield: +25.9 Delaware: +23.5% Franklin: +13.4% Union: +12.0% Madison: +9.6% Licking: +9.0% Morrow: +8.9% Hocking: -7.6% All but Hocking County saw significant year-over-year sales price increases of homes sold.
Now let’s take a look at individual communities. Which ones were the hottest in January 2021?
Local Communities/Areas by New Listings in January 2021 1. Columbus (Overall): 850 2. Columbus City School District (CSD): 579 3. South-Western CSD: 173 4. Olentangy Local School District (LSD) (Delaware): 95 5. Hilliard CSD: 92 6. Westerville CSD: 86 7. Grove City: 77 8. Dublin CSD: 68 9. Pickerington LSD: 59 10. Groveport Madison LSD (Franklin): 56 11. Worthington CSD: 51 12. Gahanna Jefferson CSD: 50 13. Newark CSD: 42 14. Lancaster CSD: 41 15. Delaware CSD: 40 16. Upper Arlington CSD: 40 17. Pataskala: 37 18. Beechwold/Clintonville: 35 19. Gahanna: 35 20. Westerville: 35 21. Hilliard: 35 22. Blacklick: 34 23. Marysville School District: 33 24. Reynoldsburg CSD: 32 25. Dublin: 31 26. Teays Valley LSD (Pickaway): 30 27. Downtown Columbus: 29 28. Pickerington: 27 29. New Albany Plain LSD: 24 30. Short North: 24 31. Big Walnut LSD (Franklin): 22 32. Powell: 22 33. Canal Winchester CSD: 19 34. London CSD: 15 35. German Village: 15 36. New Albany: 14 37. Hamilton LSD (Franklin): 14 38. Buckeye Valley LSD (Delaware: 13 39. Bexley: 11 40. Worthington: 11 41. Granville CSD: 11 42. Obetz: 8 43. Johnstown-Monroe LSD (Licking): 8 44. Circleville CSD: 7 45. Grandview Heights: 7 46. Sunbury: 7 47. Whitehall: 6 48. Jonathan Alder LSD (Madison): 6 49. Jefferson LSD (Madison: 5 50. Minverva Park: 2 51. Valleyview: 1 52. Lithopolis: 0 It’s pretty clear that the number of new listings falls off dramatically outside of Columbus proper. Only a handful of suburban areas had more than 50.
Average Sales Price January 2021, # of Homes Sold and % Change vs. January 2020 1. New Albany: $788,943: 14: +8.4% 2. New Albany Plain LSD: $669,455: 20: +10.2% 3. German Village $637,550: 10: +2.3% 4. Olentangy LSD $494,911: 96: +23.0% 5. Powell: $493,087: 11: +19.2% 6. Granville CSD: $492,045: 6: +31.3% 7. Dublin: $468,902: 37: +17.5% 8. Upper Arlington CSD: $462,594: 26: -9.2% 9. Bexley: $438,288: 13: -17.6% 10. Grandview Heights: $437,010: 6: +8.5% 11. Buckeye Valley LSD: $403,616: 20: +40.9% 12. Downtown: $384,230: 22: -36.4% 13. Dublin CSD: $378,788: 78: +11.8% 14. Johnstown-Monroe LSD: $375,598: 12: +110.8% 15. Short North: $360,830: 10: -8.7% 16. Jonathan Alder LSD: $340,887: 15: +20.7% 17. Big Walnut LSD: $337,550: 14: -8.8% 18. Gahanna Jefferson CSD: $335,621: 34: +19.7% 19. Blacklick: $325,445: 32: +39.7% 20. Sunbury: $318,980: 5: +39.1% 21. Pickerington LSD: $318,093: 40: +28.6% 22. Worthington: $316,625: 8: +7.0% 23. Teays Valley LSD: $315,316: 21: +52.5% 24. Beechwold/Clintonville: $300,780: 43: +15.4% 25. Hilliard: $297,387: 25: +0.9% 26. Worthington CSD: $294,236: 40: +17.5% 27. Pickerington: $282,044: 18: +13.0% 28. Westerville: $279,126: $279,126: -0.9% 29. Hilliard CSD: $277,377: 92: +5.9% 30. Canal Winchester CSD: $276,299: 17: +21.7% 31. Grove City: $272,378: 47: +17.8% 32. Minerva Park: $269,580: 5: +21.2% 33. Westerville CSD: $265,781: 68: -3.3% 34. Obetz: $260,825: 6: +26.4% 35. Gahanna: $255,650: 16: -2.1% 36. Marysville CSD: $254,363: 32: +17.8% 37. Hamilton LSD: $245,750: 4: +85.8% 38. Delaware CSD: $245,526: 31: +21.8% 39. Pataskala: $237,293: 18: +26.8% 40. Lithopolis: $228,125: 4: -1.4% 41. South-Western CSD: $227,266: 131: +17.9% 42. Columbus: $222,124: 761: +17.0% 43. Columbus CSD: $215,256: 507: +20.2% 44. Jefferson LSD: $210,225: 4: -35.5% 45. Reynoldsburg CSD: $203,965: 34: +9.0% 46. Lancaster CSD: $203,095: 44: +37.5% 47. Groveport Madison LSD: $194,690: 43: +30.3% 48. London CSD: $190,733: 14: +43.8% 49. Circleville CSD: $183,546: 13: +5.3% 50. Whitehall: $165,361: 11: +68.6% 51. Newark CSD: $143,241: 51: +15.9% 52. Valleyview: $120,000: 1: N/A As stated above, most areas in the metro are priced above $200,000 for a house. Columbus overall is still one of the least expensive options. New Albany is really in a league all its own. It should be noted that many of these average price figures are based on relatively few sales. Because available inventory is so low, the average sales price is being pushed higher. However, it is certainly possible to find homes lower- and in some cases, much lower- than the average price. This is especially true in Columbus.
Finally, let’s look at how long for-sale homes actually stay on the market.
Average # of Days Listings Remain on the Market Until Sale, and % Change January 2020 to January 2021 1. Valleyview: 1: N/A No sales occurred in January 2020. 2. Gahanna: 9: -74.3% 3. Groveport Madison LSD: 9: -69.0% 4. Hamilton LSD: 9: -50.0% 5. Worthington: 9: -72.7% 6. Reynoldsburg CSD: 10: -68.8% 7. Obetz: 12: -71.4% 8. Hilliard: 13: -61.8% 9. Worthington CSD: 13: -56.7% 10. Circleville CSD: 14: -76.3% 11. Lithopolis: 14: -61.1% 12. Marysville CSD: 14: -63.2% 13. Minerva Park: 14: +133.3% 14. Pataskala: 14: -46.2% 15. New Albany: 15: -88.9% 16. New Albany Plain LSD: 15: -83.9% 17. Pickerington: 15: -71.7% 18. South-Western CSD: 15: -34.8% 19. Teays Valley LSD: 15: -58.3% 20. Canal Winchester CSD: 17: -73.0% 21. Whitehall: 17: -46.9% 22. Hilliard CSD: 18: -48.6% 23. Lancaster CSD: 18: -52.6% 24. Westerville CSD: 18: -47.1% 25. Delaware CSD: 19: -51.3% 26. Grove City: 19: -36.7% 27. Beechwold/Clintonville: 20: -53.5% 28. Columbus: 21: -30.0% 29. Westerville: 21: -27.6% 30. Newark CSD: 22: -31.3% 31. Pickerington LSD: 22: -45.0% 32. Dublin: 26: -55.9% 33. Buckeye Valley LSD: 27: -44.9% 34. Columbus CSD: 27: -18.2% 35. Dublin CSD: 27: -41.3% 36. Jefferson LSD: 27: -46.0% 37. London CSD: 27: -32.5% 38. Blacklick: 28: -12.5% 39. Grandview Heights: 28: -37.8% 40. Gahanna Jefferson CSD: 29: -23.7% 41. Johnstown Monroe LSD: 29: -12.1% 42. Sunbury: 29: +222.2% 43. Jonathan Alder LSD: 35: -10.3% 44. Short North: 35: -47.8% 45. Big Walnut LSD: 37: -54.3% 46. Bexley: 44: -18.5% 47. Upper Arlington CSD: 46: -17.9% 48. Olentangy LSD: 49: -16.9% 49. Powell: 52: -8.8% 50. Granville CSD: 54: -15.6% 51. German Village: 56: -38.5% 52. Downtown: 96: +242.9% Only 2 places in the metro saw an increase, with the big one being Downtown. This was most likely due to a few factors- last year’s protests and the pandemic reducing demand close to Downtown jobs. I would expect it to recover somewhat this year and certainly next year. Overall, though, most places saw significant drops in how long homes lasted on the market. Given that these are averages, we know that there were plenty of instances of homes flying off the market in just a few days.
Furthermore, the actual inventory on the market is 30 days or less. This means that if no more homes became available for sale, all the homes on the market would sell out in less than a month. In many cases, the supply would run out in just a few weeks.
Certainly, all these numbers indicate that Columbus itself is still one of the best options for home buying given its lower costs and greater supply, but even there, homes are selling in just a few weeks on average. There’s really been no better time to sell in a long time, but also no worse time to buy. Hopefully, this data provides at least a little insight into the local market and where one might fight the greatest advantages in finding a home. My recommendation is to use every available resource- from realtors to social media- to aid in the search.
