2015 County Population Estimates Report

The US Census has released its population estimates for both counties and metros for the year ending July 1, 2015. Here is a detailed look at Ohio’s counties.

Ohio’s Top 25 Largest Counties

2010……………………………….2014………………………………..2015
1. Cuyahoga: 1,280,109….1. Cuyahoga: 1,263,796……1. Cuyahoga: 1,255,921
2. Franklin: 1,163,545……..2. Franklin: 1,234,126………2. Franklin: 1,251,722
3. Hamilton: 802,270……….3. Hamilton: 806,332……….3. Hamilton: 807,598
4. Summit: 541,671………..4. Summit: 542,600………….4. Summit: 541,968
5. Montgomery: 536,216….5. Montgomery: 532,515…..5. Montgomery: 532,258
6. Lucas: 441,575…………..6. Lucas: 434,615…………….6. Lucas: 433,689
7. Stark: 375,461…………….7. Stark: 375,638…………….7. Butler: 376,353
8. Butler: 369,064…………..8. Butler: 373,948…………….8. Stark: 375,165
9. Lorain: 301,471…………..9. Lorain: 304,187……………9. Lorain:305,147
10. Mahoning: 238,398……10. Mahoning: 233,398…….10. Mahoning: 231,900
11. Lake: 230,004…………..11. Lake: 229,220……………11. Lake: 229,245
12. Warren: 213,524………..12. Warren: 221,816………..12. Warren: 224,469
13. Trumbull: 209,854………13. Trumbull: 205,255……..13. Trumbull: 203,751
14. Clermont: 197,795……..14. Clermont: 201,375……..14. Clermont: 201,973
15. Delaware: 175,146……..15. Delaware: 189,237…….15. Delaware: 193,0134
16. Medina: 172,542………..16. Medina: 175,963………..16. Medina: 176,395
17. Licking: 166,480…………17. Licking: 169,407………..17. Licking: 170,570
18. Greene: 161,608………..18. Greene: 164,660………..18. Greene: 164,427
19. Portage: 161,448……….19. Portage: 162,235………..19. Porage: 162,275
20. Fairfield: 146,385……….20. Fairfield: 150,432………..20. Fairfield: 151,408
21. Clark: 148,246…………..21. Clark: 136,482……………21. Clark: 135,959
22. Wood: 125,940………….22. Wood: 129,575…………..22. Wood: 129,730
23. Richland: 124,173……..23. Richland: 121,914……….23. Richland: 121,707
24. Wayne: 114,439………..24. Wayne: 115,572………….24. Wayne: 116,063
25. Columbiana: 107,863…25. Columbiana: 105,597…..25. Columbiana: 104,806

From the numbers above, Columbus’ Franklin County was just below Cuyahoga last year. It is likely that, given each county’s growth rates, Franklin has now passed up Cuyahoga to become Ohio’s most populated county.

Top 25 Total Growth Counties 2010-2015

1. Franklin: +88,177
2. Delaware: +18,824
3. Warren: +11,601
4. Butler: +8,223
5. Fairfield: +5,256
6. Hamilton: +5,224
7. Clermont: +4,610
8. Wood: +4,242
9. Licking: +4,090
10. Medina: +4,062
11. Lorain: +3,791
12. Greene: +2,858
13. Union: +2,010
14. Miami: +1,718
15. Wayne: +1,549
16. Holmes: +1,543
17. Pickaway: +1,300
18. Athens: +1,113
19. Portage: +854
20. Hancock: +791
21. Geauga: +692
22. Madison: +664
23. Tuscarawas: +334
24. Morrow: +247
25. Muskingum: +216



Components of County Population Change

Top 25 Counties for Natural Growth (Births vs. Deaths) 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +50,736
2. Hamilton: +17,256
3. Butler: +7,785
4. Cuyahoga: +7,409
5. Lucas: +7,053
6. Delaware: +6,260
7. Montgomery: +5,007
8. Warren: +4,688
9. Clermont: +3,987
10. Summit: +3,194
11. Fairfield: +2,676
12. Lorain: +2,630
13. Holmes: +2,613
14. Wayne: +2,554
15. Licking: +2,482
16. Greene: +2,309
17. Medina: +2,040
18. Wood: +1,824
19. Union: +1,475
20. Hancock: +1,196
21. Allen: +1,115
22. Shelby: +1,038
23. Miami: +902
24. Putnam: +849
25. Huron: +815

Franklin County’s natural growth rate destroys every other county in the state. It gains almost 7x that of Cuyahoga County, despite Cuyahoga having a larger population during this period, and nearly 3x that of Hamilton County.

Top 25 Counties for Domestic Migration 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +11,715
2. Delaware: +10,532
3. Warren: +4,496
4. Fairfield: +1,691
5. Licking: +1,249
6. Medina: +1,234
7. Wood: +1,120
8. Pickaway: +711
9. Miami: +475
10. Union: +249
11. Madison: +246
12. Ottawa: +5
13. Clermont: -39
14. Morrow: -159
15. Morgan: -162
16. Monroe: -167
17. Washington: -177
18. Harrison: -198
19. Belmont: -221
20. Geauga: -320
21. Vinton: -361
22. Meigs: -401
23. Noble: -421
24. Van Wert: -431
25. Perry: -464

Again, Franklin County leads the pack, with Columbus metro counties performing the best statewide, as shown in the map below.

Top 25 Counties for International Migration 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +26,977
2. Cuyahoga: +16,926
3. Hamilton: +9,016
4. Montgomery: +5,380
5. Summit: +5,307
6. Butler: +4,066
7. Greene: +2,400
8. Lorain: +2,303
9. Warren: +2,198
10. Lucas: +2,194
11. Portage: +1,991
12. Delaware: +1,610
13. Athens: +1,586
14. Mahoning: +1,383
15. Wood: +1,026
16. Stark: +881
17. Lake: +729
18. Fairfield: +658
19. Clermont: +612
20. Medina: +578
21. Tuscarawas: +468
22. Wayne: +408
23. Licking: +404
24. Allen: +375
25. Miami: +359

Most Ohio counties saw increases in international migration, but once again, none came close to Franklin County’s total.

So there you have it, the updated numbers for Ohio’s counties.

State GDP 2014

New state-level GDP figures were recently released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Where does Ohio stand?

First, let’s look at the top 20 states for total GDP in 2014

2014 Total, in Millions
1. California: 2,311,616
2. Texas: 1,648,036
3. New York: 1,404,518
4. Florida: 839,944
5. Illinois: 745,875
6. Pennsylvania: 662,890
7. Ohio: 583,261
8. New Jersey: 549,099
9. North Carolina: 483,126
10. Georgia: 476,483
11. Virginia: 463,613
12. Massachusetts: 459,937
13. Michigan: 451,516
14. Washington: 427,052
15. Maryland: 348,631
16. Indiana: 317,840
17. Minnesota: 316,204
18. Colorado: 306,663
19. Tennessee: 300,604
20. Wisconsin: 292,891

Ohio maintained its 7th-place position through 2014.
Now let’s look at the 20 states that had the biggest increases.

Total GDP Growth in Millions 2013-2014
1. California: +98,625
2. Texas: +90,843
3. New York: +62,927
4. Florida: +39,247
5. Pennsylvania: +22,596
6. Illinois: +21,080
7. Ohio: +20,416
8. Georgia: +20,000
9. Washington: +19,892
10. Massachusetts: +18,470
11. Colorado: +18,325
12. Michigan: +16,842
13. North Carolina: +16,051
14. New Jersey: +11,703
15. Oregon: +10,810
16. Tennessee: +10,479
17. Arizona: +9,422
18. Maryland: +9,222
19. Minnesota: +8,934
20. Virginia: +8,629

So Ohio is growing at the same position as its overall ranking. No states below it are set to pass it anytime in the near future. In fact, the gap is widening from its nearest threats.

What about per-capita GDP, which is a measure of the state’s total GDP divided by its population?

Per-Capita GDP, in Dollars 2014
1. Alaska: 66,160
2. North Dakota: 65,225
3. New York: 64,818
4. Connecticut: 64,676
5. Wyoming: 64,309
6. Massachusetts: 63,005
7. Delaware: 60,551
8. New Jersey: 56,405
9. Washington: 55,298
10. California: 54,462
11. Texas: 54,433
12. Maryland: 53,759
13. Illinois: 52,827
14. Minnesota: 52,801
15. Nebraska: 52,724
16. Colorado: 52,214
17. Virginia: 51,338
18. Oregon: 51,329
19. New Hampshire: 49,951
20. Hawaii: 49,686

27. Ohio: 45,887

Ohio is in the bottom half. Not great, as it indicates that it’s actually underperforming in GDP given its population.

So there you have it, a quick 2014 GDP update. To find out more, check out the BEA site at http://www.bea.gov/index.htm It has tons of economic information for states and metro areas.

Ohio’s Improving Growth Outlook

Back in November, I wrote about Ohio’s improving domestic growth picture. In that post, I examined domestic out-migration and domestic in-migration 2005-2012, and discovered that the net change had been improving. The state was losing fewer people over time domestically, and the difference had declined to under 2,000 people by 2012, a HUGE improvement from the start of the period.

Recently, the US Census released 2013 state population estimates, along with components of population change for the July 1st, 2012-July 1st, 2013 period. More positive news was to be found in those estimates.

First, Ohio’s population increased to 11,570,808, representing an annual increase of 17,777. While the increase is not particularly great, especially in comparison to states nationally, there are some positive nuggets with that number. The state held on to its position as the 7th most populous state, and the increase was the highest since pre-recession. The state moved up 18 spots in the total annual growth rankings 2012-2013 vs. 2011-2012. This was the best increase of all 50 states. It was also the best growth for the state since 2007.

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Did the state bottom out in 2012? Perhaps, but way too early to tell. Still, a very good improvement that halted a general decline.

The components of change are also interesting.

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The migration patterns show a few things. First, 2013 had the 2nd highest rate since 2000 of in-international migration. It was also one of the best years (since 1996) for domestic in-migration.

The question is, can Ohio keep improving or is this just a temporary blip? Time will tell.

Ohio Domestic Migration 2005-2012

Ohio has been growing fairly slowly for several decades now. In fact, if it was not for Columbus’ population growth and international migration, the state would’ve been losing population in recent years. But is the picture really that bad? Are things changing? I decided to find out.

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The first chart above shows the total population that moved to Ohio from all other 49 states plus Puerto Rico and DC by year. The drop during the recession is pretty obvious, as mobility greatly decreased during that time. 2012 had the 2nd highest total of the period, only slightly behind 2006.

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What the out-migration chart shows is that the total is gradually going down, meaning fewer people, on average, are leaving Ohio each year. So what is the overall difference of in vs. out migration to Ohio?

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As the chart shows, the trend has been improving over time, and 2012 barely registered a loss at all. Will the state begin seeing positive domestic in-migration in the very near future? Based on this chart, the answer seems to be yes. A lot can still happen, but it does appear that Ohio is finally shaking off its long-term population issues.

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Independence Day Columbus Weather History

In honor of the 4th, here are Independence Day’s extreme events.

Normals
High: 85
Low: 65
Precipitation: 0.15″

# of July 4ths Where the Maximum was…
100 or Above: 3
90 or Above: 34
80 and Above: 104
79 and Below: 31
69 and Below: 2

# of July 4ths Where the Minimum was…
70 or Above: 26
60 or Above: 95
59 or Below: 40
49 or Below: 2

Top 5 Warmest Highs
1. 1911: 104
2. 1897: 102
3. 2012: 100
4. 1919: 97
5. 1900, 1921, 1949, 2002: 96

Top 5 Coldest Highs
1. 1882, 1922: 69
2. 1924, 1967, 1978, 2008: 71
3. 1909, 1927, 1972, 1979: 72
4. 1920: 73
5. 1937, 1989: 74

Top 5 Warmest Lows
1. 1911: 79
2. 1897, 1900, 1999: 75
3. 1879, 1921: 74
4. 1883, 1902, 2012: 73
5. 1899, 1919, 1991, 2004: 72

Top 5 Coldest Lows
1. 1968: 47
2. 1963: 49
3. 1996: 50
4. 1986: 51
5. 1927, 1940: 52

# of July 4ths where Precipitation was…
0: 65
Trace: 18
0.01-0.24: 32
0.25-0.49: 8
0.50-0.74: 8
0.75-0.99: 2
1.00 and Above: 2

Top 10 Wettest
1. 1984: 1.38″
2. 1935: 1.04″
3. 1915: 0.86″
4. 1932: 0.84″
5. 1957: 0.66″
6. 2008: 0.61″
7. 1939: 0.60″
8. 2003: 0.59″
9. 1926: 0.58″
10. 2006: 0.56″

Ohio’s most infamous July 4th weather event, occurred in 1969. Severe thunderstorms developed over southeastern Michigan and moved southeastward into the Ohio lakeshore communities around 7:30PM on July 4th. Every lakeshore community from Toledo to Cleveland was affected, as well as areas further inland. The storms continuously trained over the same areas from Lucas to Wayne counties for several hours, dropping torrential rains, tornadoes, high winds, hail and lightning. Rainfall in a 100-mile stretch from just southeast of Toledo into Wayne County totaled 6″-14″. These rains caused record local flooding. All told, the storms of July 4th-5th, 1969 caused $65 million in damage, damaged or destroyed 10,000 homes, 7,000 cars, 104 businesses, 300 mobile homes and more than 700 boats. 41 people were killed and 559 were injured, mostly from flooding. This was the 3rd most damaging flood in Ohio history, behind January 1959 and March 1913. Columbus was too far south to see any of the storms and received just 0.03″ of rain for the period.