In today’s cool link edition, we have a new study by the site Demographia that offers a housing affordability comparison for more than 90 markets across 8 different countries/places around the world. What is different about this study is that the comparison is done including a housing cost to income ratio, meaning that it takes into account local incomes versus housing prices. That makes it much more accurate in terms of an overall market comparison.
Columbus ranks fairly well, overall, along with Ohio’s other 2 main markets in Cincinnati and Cleveland. Despite all the local complaints about housing becoming unaffordable, relative to just about everywhere else in the US, Ohio markets are actually inexpensive. That doesn’t mean that housing costs aren’t rising quickly or that more and more people aren’t being priced out of buying and owning a home, because that’s definitely happening and certainly an increasing problem. It just means that the problem isn’t quite as bad locally as it is in most other places.
A few years back, I wrote about the outcomes of Columbus Landmarks’ historic buildings under threat from development or demolition. A few of the buildings had already been lost, a few had been saved, but several had no resolution. Since then, however, the list has seen more historic building preservation results arrive. Additionally, other buildings that were not on the Columbus Landmarks list of endangered buildings have recently come under threat.
Columbus Landmarks List Buildings
Indianola Junior High School Address: 420 E. 19th Avenue Built: 1929 Status as of April 2022: Existing, with a Renovation Plan
Indianola in 2015.
Some good news for the very first Junior High building in the United States. An independent STEM school chain, Metro Schools, announced in May of last year that they will be renovating the old school for grades 6-12. Through April of this year, renovation does not appear to have started, however.
Bellows Avenue Elementary Address: 725 Bellows Avenue Built: 1905 Status as of April 2022: Existing, with a Renovation Plan In November of 2021, Columbus City Council approved redevelopment plans that would renovate the school into a mix of office space and apartments. Additionally, the remaining school site land would be filled with new townhomes. Work has yet to begin on this project, however.
Near East Trolley Barn Complex Address: 1600 Oak Street Built: 1880-1900 Status as of April 2022: Renovated
The main trolley barn and grounds in 2019.
The old trolley barn as of April 2022.
A renovation to turn the trolley barn into East Market has more or less been completed, and the surrounding grounds have also been rebuilt.
Kessler’s Corner Grocery Address: 553-555 W. Town Street Built: 1884 Status as of April 2022: Existing, but to be Demolished
Kessler’s in 2019.
The building had been vacant for more than 30 years, with a slew of owners not spending a dime on maintaining the structure- and apparently the city doing nothing about it. Ironically, the current owner has some history with restoring buildings like this, but claim the building is too far gone to save. The reality, however, is that only very rarely can a building not be saved. It largely comes down to the cost-return analysis, meaning that restoring this building would likely cost more than the return the owner wants to get out of it. They will say it’s beyond saving, but really it’s just beyond what they want to spend. And so, another piece of Columbus history is lost.
The Main Bar Address: 16 W. Main Street Built: 1880s Status as of April 2022: Demolished
The Main Bar building in 2016.
This one really irks me. The Main Bar building was a small, historic building that was in great condition. It was demolished in 2021 not because of a proposed development project or because it was unsafe or in poor condition. Nope, it was torn down… for parking. The Downtown Commission allowed the demolition despite the fact that their own development standards forbid demolition without a replacement project planned, and also forbids it solely for surface parking space. Yet it happened, anyway. Why? At this point, who knows. Downtown development standards are rarely enforced by the Downtown Commission. Half the recently-built projects along High Street shouldn’t have been allowed as built, so the fact that they weren’t followed here, either, is no surprise. The owner promised that there would eventually be a development proposal for the site, but they didn’t have one at the time of demolition and still don’t.
Macon Hotel Building Address: 366 N. 20th Street Built: 1888 Status as of April 2022: Existing, with a Renovation Plan
The Macon in 2019.
This old building, famous for its jazz history, has been vacant for decades. Various redevelopment and renovations proposals have come and gone. A new one from the summer of 2021, and hopefully one that we see finally come to fruition, wants to renovate the structure back into a hotel with first-floor retail and restaurant space. No movement, however, has occurred on this project.
Kroger Bakery Building Address: 457 Cleveland Avenue Built: 1914 Status as of April 2022: Existing, with a Renovation Plan A proposal from last spring seeks to renovate the structures into a mix of uses with apartments and retail, with more apartment buildings proposed around the historic bakery buildings. This project has been approved, but work has yet to begin.
Threatened Buildings Not on the Columbus Landmarks List
South Dormitory Address: 240 Parsons Avenue Built: 1935 Status as of April 2022: Existing, likely to be Saved
The South Dormitory in 2021.
This building was one of the dormitory buildings that were part of the old Institution for the Blind building that is now used by the City of Columbus. The City had been using it for offices, but claimed that it no longer functioned well for their purposes, so they proposed tearing it down for expanded parking space. Ironically, the complex already has a very large parking lot and garage that could be expanded upwards without requiring any demolition. Because the building itself is in good condition and because of the reason for the proposed demolition, there was immediate and heavy criticism of the plan. So much so that funding was pulled. While a new parking proposal hasn’t been released publicly, given the outcry, it seems unlikely that the City will move forward with the demolition itself.
South Side Learning Center Address: 255 Reeb Avenue Built: 1927 Status as of April 2022: Existing, but with Demolition Plan
255 Reeb in 2019.
The former South Side Learning Center is being proposed to be demolished as part of Nationwide Realty’s Healthy Homes affordable housing company. The existing building is in good condition, but Healthy Homes says that it can be best renovated only into 1 bedroom units and efficiencies, but they prefer to build 2-3 bedroom units. That’s it… that’s the reasoning. So as with the Main Bar, there is nothing really wrong with the historic building other than that it can’t accommodate the specific desired unit size. If Healthy Homes only owned this specific lot, I could see how that may be an issue. However, they also own the few vacant lots to the west along Reeb and the land back to the rear alley. The overall site is more than large enough to build 3-4 multi-unit new buildings each with 2-3 bedroom units in addition to renovating the existing structure into 1-bedroom units, creating a dense pocket of necessary housing for all potential parties. In fact, such a proposal could potentially more than double the units actually proposed. Yet for some inexplicable reason, Healthy Homes doesn’t want to do that despite the claim that they need more housing.
Jersey Farm Bakery Building Address: 1826 E. Livingston Avenue Built: 1949 Status as of April 2022: Existing, but with Demolition Plan
The bakery building in 2021.
While not as old as some of the other buildings on this list, this large art-deco style factory building still has some architectural interest and history attached. Woda Companies initially planned to renovate the building into residences, but now want to tear it down and replace it with a 4-story affordable housing complex with some retail space. Unfortunately, the latest proposal is fairly generic and somewhat garish with the choice of colors. A project that would’ve at least incorporated the Livingston-facing part of the building would’ve gone a long way to make this project more interesting. The overall site is very large at nearly 3.3 acres, so there was plenty of space to do something unique here. This seems like a huge missed opportunity.
Columbus and the greater region are set to change significantly in the coming years, with its trajectory of population growth only meaning greater pressure to build. But as those projects come, more and more old buildings could be lost if forward thinking fails.
To explore other proposals around Columbus, the best place is here.
In today’s edition of the series, we have a Cool Link for the 1950 Census. 1950 census data was already available on different websites, but it was general population and demographic data only. The National Archives and Record Administration, or NARA, has now released complete records. Many of these records were unavailable to the general public prior to this release because the data fell under what’s called the “72 Year Rule”, in which the US government will not release any personally identifiable information until 72 years has passed after the date of data collection. With the 1950 Census, that time has come.
You can search the records by place, record type or even by a person’s name. This is great not only for historic population and demographic data, but also for genealogical research into family histories.
The Columbus economy in February 2022 continued its slow recovery from the Covid pandemic crash of 2020. Let’s break it down.
Overall Metro Area February 2022 and Change from February 2021 Labor Force: 1,126,967 +9,435 Employed: 1,085,393 +27,948 Unemployed: 41,574 -18,513 Unemployment Rate: 3.7% -1.7 Total Non-Farm Jobs: 1,102,000 +25,400
Overall Metro Area February 2022 and Change from February 2020 (Pre-Pandemic) Labor Force: 1,126,967 +10,719 Employed: 1,085,393 +13,820 Unemployed: 41,574 -3,101 Unemployment Rate: 3.7% -0.3 Total Non-Farm Jobs: 1,102,000 -9,400 In most categories, the metro area overall has fully recovered to levels just before the pandemic crash- and has improved upon most metrics. Non-farm jobs is the only area that has not yet fully recovered.
Now let’s view the results by industry.
Mining/Logging/Construction 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 42,500————41,000———44,400 The construction industry (Columbus doesn’t have a significant mining or logging industry) has surpassed pre-Covid levels.
Manufacturing 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 73,000———–71,700———-72,600 Manufacturing hasn’t fully recovered, but appears likely to within the next few months.
Trade/Transportation/Utilities 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 215,600———-222,800———234,900 This industry has gone well past pre-pandemic levels is one of the strongest performing in the metro area.
Information 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 16,500———–15,200———-16,500 Information has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but only just. It remains to be seen how much further it will improve as the industry had been losing jobs steadily since the end of 2018.
Financial Activities 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 85,900———–85,000———-84,600 Unlike other industries, financial activities did not drop significantly during the crash. It did fully recover all lost jobs by November of 2021, but has slid some since.
Professional and Business Services 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 178,800———-176,500———175,400 As with the Financial Activities sector, this industry did fully recover by the fall of 2021, but is now lagging a bit.
Education and Health Services 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 165,100———-158,500———159,700 Although recovering slowly and ahead of last year, this industry has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Part of the reason for this may have been the mass resignations within the health industry due to burnout from stress.
Leisure and Hospitality 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 106,800———-87,200———-96,500 This industry was arguably hit the hardest of any during the pandemic crash (jobs fell by nearly 50%), and in many cases has struggled to fill existing jobs as the economy has improved. Still, trends suggest that the industry will be fully recovered by this summer.
Other Services 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 41,900———–38,800———-40,400 Another industry that will likely be fully recovered by summer or early fall.
Government 2/2020———–2/2021———-2/2022 185,300———-179,900———177,000 As the state capital, Columbus has always been heavy in this industry. However, for whatever reason, government jobs just haven’t been coming back as much and may not recover fully until sometime next year.
While the overall metro has largely recovered, several industries have not. However, most are trending towards passing pre-pandemic levels by this summer- barring any other economic problems from Covid or global events.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the source of this data, is useful for local employment data for any metro area in the United States.
I largely avoid politics here because it’s a much more subjective topic that is far less data-focused in nature than what I try to provide here, so the most political I’ve gotten was to provide past election results and county voting trends with no political commentary. This post will attempt to maintain that line between data and opinion, but I understand that the topic of politics and Covid-19 is already a very controversial mix, and simply sticking to the data won’t necessarily be perceived as unbiased by all who read this. With that in mind, I can only say that this post is based on existing, straightforward data, and I have made no attempts to add any personal biases to the results one way or another. With all that said, I was curious whether there was any correlation between voting patterns and Covid cases/deaths locally, specifically with Ohio’s 88 counties. There has been some suggestion in the media that Red- or Republican-voting places- have generally had worse outcomes than Blue- or Democratic-voting counties. So we will look at the following factors to see if that holds true locally: 1. Total Cases 2. Total Cases Per Capita 3. Total Deaths 4. Total Deaths Per Capita
But we first must establish what the Red vs. Blue counties are. Ohio doesn’t register voters by party affiliation, so instead, I used county voting results for the past 6 presidential elections, or since 2000. Based on the % of voters voting for either Republican or Democrat, I created 5 different levels of political bias. Deep Blue: Counties where Democratic voters beat Republican voters by 25 points or more. Light Blue: Counties where Democratic voters beat Republican voters by 5-24 points. Neutral: Counties where Democratic/Republican voter advantage falls under 5 points. Light Red: Counties where Republican voters beat Democratic voters by 5-24 points. Deep Red: Counties where Republican voters beat Democratic voters by 25 points or more. The point system is taken from the average of the past 6 elections, so keep in mind that some counties may be more Red or Blue currently than the average suggests.
So based on that criteria, which Ohio counties are Red vs. Blue vs. Neutral? Well, Ohio’s overwhelming rural counties are mostly in the Deep Red category (39 of 88), followed by Light Red (34 of 88), Neutral (7 of 88), Light Blue (7 of 88) and just 1 Deep Blue county in the state. The map below breaks the counties down and gives the average voting bias across the last 6 elections.
Now we need to take those established voting biases and compare them to how the counties performed during Covid-19. Case Numbers Through 3/31/2022 Total All Red Counties: 1,230,285 Total All Neutral Counties: 498,375 Total All Blue Counties: 944,141 Average Total Cases by County Group Deep Red Counties: 15,138.8 Light Red Counties: 18,819.8 Neutral Counties: 71,196.4 Light Blue Counties: 96,563.6 Deep Blue County: 268,196 On first glance, it would seem that Red counties did much better on average despite having more cases overall, but the problem is that those counties have much lower populations and literally cannot have the same average totals of more populated ones. That’s why we instead have to look at per-capita cases. Total Cases Per 100K People All Red Counties: 23.9 All Neutral Counties: 22.8 All Blue Counties: 21.9 Deep Red Only: 23.7 Light Red Only: 24.0 Neutral Only: 22.8 Light Blue Only: 22.0 Deep Blue Only: 21.7 With per-capita, the story is exactly the opposite, with Red counties having more cases by population. If you’re wondering why the Deep Red counties had a slightly lower per-capita rate than Light Red, the answer is Holmes County. Perhaps due to its heavy Amish population that tends to avoid modern medicine and technology- and largely keep to themselves in the process- reported per-capita cases there were the lowest in the state by far, and single-handedly lowered the entire Deep Red county grouping below Light Red counties. Regardless, the outcome was still the same- Red did worse. Top 10 Highest Per-Capita Case Rate 1. Marion: 30.5 2. Lawrence, Scioto: 30.0 3. Pickaway: 29.9 4. Muskingum: 29.3 5. Jackson: 27.4 6. Fayette: 27.3 7. Guernsey: 26.9 8. Allen, Defiance, Pike: 26.8 9. Union: 26.4 10. Clark, Erie: 26.1 Top 10 Lowest Per-Capita Case Rate 1. Holmes: 11.6 2. Geauga: 17.1 3. Carroll: 19.5 4. Wayne: 20.0 5. Meigs: 20.1 6. Ashtabula: 20.3 7. Washington: 20.6 8. Summit: 20.7 9. Ottawa: 20.9 10. Trumbull: 21 Of course, one of the caveats with this data is that many, many cases went unreported, and those cases were more likely to be in rural areas with lower access to testing and medical facilities. There’s also the issue that Covid doesn’t always present with symptoms. So, it’s possible that the per-capita discrepancy was even larger. Deaths, however, are more concrete. Not all of them have been counted either, obviously, but it’s a lot harder to hide a death than it is a symptomless case. Total Deaths Through 3/31/2022 All Red Counties: 18,295 All Neutral Counties: 7,219 All Blue Counties: 12,523 Average Total Deaths by County Group Deep Red: 227.6 Light Red: 277.0 Neutral: 1,031.3 Light Blue: 1,253.3 Deep Blue: 3,750.0 Again, on the surface, the average looks bad for Blue counties despite having the lower overall total, but the truth again rests with the per-capita figures. Total Deaths Per Capita by County Group Deep Red: 394.4 Light Red: 390.4 Neutral: 345.4 Light Blue: 328.6 Deep Blue: 304.0 On a per-capita basis, Blue counties lost 76 fewer people per 100K than did Red counties. That’s a lot of lives.
So what can be concluded from all this? The first is that the results in Ohio were not isolated. Across almost all states, Blue-leaning states had better outcomes per-capita than Red. Speculation as to why that is runs the gamut, from better overall local policies to differing views on science to even education levels and access to harmful media sources that disseminate misinformation. Whatever the case may be, the United States has lost more people than any other nation in the world, at now over 1 million. It is by far the worst pandemic and the worst natural disaster in American history. With so much bad news these days, we can only hope that something valuable has been learned in all this terrible mess.
