Category Archives: Columbus Events

The Blizzard of 1996

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The first two weeks of January 1996 proved to be a very wintry period, culminating in the severe Blizzard of 1996. Although this storm was made famous for its effects on the Eastern Seaboard, it also had a significant impact on areas to the west of the Appalachians, and was one of the worst winter storms the state had seen in nearly 20 years.

This storm developed in the Gulf of Mexico on January 6th and moved up along the East Coast through the 7th. Forecasts for Ohio were not especially indicative of an impending major storm. A weak low pressure moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys was supposed to die out as the main storm on the Coast took over. Therefore, Ohio was not forecast to be hit especially hard from this storm, as the Area Forecast Discussion goes into on the after of January 5th.
FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
243 PM EST FRI JAN 5 1996
AGAIN HVG TRBL GETTING GRIDDED DATA. CLDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING AGAIN OVRNITE. SCT SW– AFT 00Z AS S/W APPCHS FROM
WEST…SEEMS TO BE RIGHT OUT AHD OF NOSE OF S/W. THEN FOR SAT…
SFC TROF SETS UP ON WEST SIDE OF APALACHIANS…WAITING FOR STRONG VORT TO SWING AROUND BASE OF 500 TROF. AFT COORD W/ CLE WILL FOLLOW ETA…WHICH BRINGS MOIST AND RAIN BIT FARTHER NORTH. SFC LO FAR SOUTH…WITH 500 /700 LO TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR REGION. RH FIELD SHWS NRN EDGE OF 90% MVNG OVR NRN KY/SRN OH ON DURING THE DAY SAT. MOIST HOLDS THRU SUN W/ 700/850 LO/S TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION. ETA QPF SHWG ABT .10 TO .25 INCH ACROSS SRN PART OF REGION…AFT COORD W/ CLE/IND/SDF ALL THINKING ABT SAME. NRN KY 4-5″ TOTAL THRU SUN…SRN OH 2-4″ AND 2-3″ SE INDIANA. FROM DAY TO CMH NORTH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. IND HAS SNOW ENDING LATE SAT NITE…W/ ENZDING SPREADING EAST ON SUNDAY.

As the highlighted section shows, the Wilmington office was thinking 1″ or less for the I-70 corridor and points north, including Columbus, with only 2″-4″ in far Southern Ohio.
The first weather advisories for the storm went up at 5:20AM on Saturday, January 6th. For Ohio, this only included a Winter Storm Watch for far Southeast and far South-Central parts of the state, where 4″-6″ were predicted. No advisories were issued for the Columbus area until 4:10PM on the 6th.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 PM EST SAT JAN 6 1996
…WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
…SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA FOR
TONIGHT AND FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY…
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH RANGE OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PORTSMOUTH AREA AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO COVINGTON AND DRY RIDGE.
VERSAILLES…CINCINNATI…HILLSBORO AND CHILLICOTHE SHOULD SEE 3 TO 5
INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS RICHMOND…DAYTON…LONDON AND
COLUMBUS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO…SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT WHEN HEAVIER SNOW BEGINS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO BECAUSE OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

The Snow Advisory was only for 1″-3″ for Columbus even as the storm approached from the south. Later forecast updates at 5:55PM and 9:35PM on the 6th, and 12:35AM on the 7th still called for 1″-3″ for Columbus. Snowfall would begin in Columbus around 8PM on the 6th.

I have very vivid memories of seeing the afternoon and evening news on the 6th and being disappointed that the forecasts called for the storm to pass us well to the south and east. However, by the morning of the 7th, it was clear that the forecast had gone very wrong. Heavy snow and strong winds affected mainly the southern 2/3rds of the state, and the I-70 corridor was already reporting 3″-5″ by 6AM. By 11AM, Columbus had 4″-7″. Curiously, Wilmington wouldn’t add the I-70 corridor to a Winter Storm Warning until that time, after more than half of the snow had already fallen.

Blizzard conditions, however, raged across central, west-central and northwestern sections of the state, where winds gusted over 55mph in places. Blowing and drifting snowfall piled drifts several feet deep, and travel across the state was made impassible, particularly on country roads. For many, this was one of the greatest January snowstorms ever, and in some cases, the worst storm since the Great Blizzard of 1978. 8-10″ was common in the southern 2/3rds of the state, but there was as much as 15″ in parts of the Ohio River communities, as well as areas in west-central Ohio.

Some snowfall totals around Ohio:
Cincinnati: 14.4″
Circleville: 9.0″
Columbus: 9.8″
Dayton: 8.0″
Delaware: 7.0″
Mansfield: 8.0″
Westerville: 8.0″
Zanesville: 7.9″

So why had the forecast gone so wrong? The weak low pressure that was supposed to die off as the larger system wound up along the East Coast did not die out as expected. Instead, it moved into the lower Ohio Valley and essentially stalled as it slowly spun itself down. This low helped suck moisture over the mountains and into Ohio. Temperatures were cold enough for this moisture to fall as all snow, and a tight gradient brought with it strong winds. The result was a paralyzing winter storm and one of the all-time forecast busts.



The 1901 Mega Cold Front

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1901 mega cold front

The 1901 mega cold front was a massive wake-up call after a relatively tranquil, if not cool, fall. Temperatures through November and early December 1901 had been persistently below normal. 24 days in November had been below normal, and but for a few days very early in December, this pattern continued. However, beginning on December 11th, temperatures began to rise ahead of an approaching weather system. By the 13th, temperatures reached record highs in Columbus when they spiked at 65 degrees. The following day started equally warm with a record high of 65. However, a change was coming.

To the northwest of Ohio, temperatures were plunging rapidly as a deep, cold high pressure system was being pulled south. Dispatch headlines warned of the record-breaking cold.

A powerful cold front would move through late on the 14th, and temperatures began to plummet. By midnight, the temperature had dropped all the way down to just 14 degrees, a single day drop of 51 degrees! A driving rain accompanied the frontal passage, but quickly changed over to heavy snow that accumulated 3″-5″ across the area.

On the 15th, the temperature continued to fall, albeit more slowly, and by midnight the reading was -4. This mega-cold front had produced a 69-degree total drop in Columbus, which made it one of the strongest cold fronts ever to move through the Ohio region.

The weather map on December 14, 1901, as the front began pushing through Ohio.

The front would bring a major pattern change. Every day from the 15th-21st featured highs in the teens, which set many daily low maximum records, some of which still stand more than 100 years later.

The winter of 1901-02 was generally cold and snowy in the Ohio Valley, but no future front that winter would come close to December 14-15th of 1901.

To view more local and current weather, visit: Wilmington National Weather Service
And for more historic December records, check out: December Weather Records



Columbus Murders by Census Tract 2008-2012

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A few days ago, I posted maps for murders by zip code. Because zip codes encompass such large areas, they aren’t as accurate in showing where murders are taking place within them. To help show this more, I broke the maps down into Columbus murders by census tract. While the tracts can include large areas also, they are much smaller than zip codes and allow us to see more at the neighborhood level.

So here they are.




The same forces spreading murder further out into the suburbs in the zip codes seems to be at play in tracts as well.
Here are the totals for the entire period.

The High Street corridor from Merion Village up through Worthington has very low or non-existent murder rates. This is also true for most of Whitehall, surprisingly, Bexley, most of the Northwest Side and much of the North Side, apart from the Tamarack Circle area.

Columbus Crime Statistics provide additional maps and data for local crime back to 1985.



Columbus Murders by Zip Code 2008-2012

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I have been wanting to do these maps for awhile now, as there have been several searches on the site for them and they weren’t available. The maps look at Columbus murders by zip code 2008-2012, highlighting which zip codes have seen the most murders by year and across the period as a whole.

2008
Columbus murders by zip code
In 2008, almost all murders were contained within the I-270 boundaries. The East and South Sides were the worst areas.

2009

In 2009, there began to be a bit of diffusion on where murder was taking place. While parts of the urban core remained the worst areas, suburban areas also saw the occasional murder.

2010

The diffusion continued in 2010.

2011

And in 2011.

2012

2012 was the most diffuse of all the years, with no heavily concentrated areas, even in the urban core as much. Meanwhile, most of the suburban zip codes within Franklin County saw at least 1 murder.

The question is, what do we make of this? This is only a 5-year data set, but it may be supporting evidence for current urban trends. The first trend being that the urban core is rapidly gentrifying in many areas. The second being that poverty is, through economic and development trends, is spreading further out from the core. Concentrated poverty and crime go hand in hand, so while the suburbs may see a bit of increase in crime, the urban core is starting to see less. Something to watch over time to see if such trends continue.

2008-2012

What strikes me about the 5-year map is that Grandview/Upper Arlington have been entirely murder free while every zip around them have had at least one. Also, Downtown is also relatively murder free, as is Bexley and the Clintonville areas.

Of course, zip codes include large areas. What are the neighborhoods that are actually seeing murders and which ones are not? To find out, we’ll have to go down to the tract level. Over the next few days, I’ll post those maps.

More local crime statistics back to 1985 can be found here: Columbus Crime Statistics
The https://www.columbus.gov/police/ site provides annual reports, crime descriptions and other local department information.



Independence Day Climatology

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Independence Day climatology Columbus, Ohio

In honor of the 4th, here is the history of Independence Day climatology and extreme weather events.

Normals
High: 85
Low: 65
Mean: 75
Precipitation: 0.15″

# of July 4ths Where the Maximum was…
100 or Above: 3
90 or Above: 34
80 and Above: 104
79 and Below: 31
69 and Below: 2

# of July 4ths Where the Minimum was…
70 or Above: 26
60 or Above: 95
59 or Below: 40
49 or Below: 2

Top 5 Warmest Highs
1. 1911: 104
2. 1897: 102
3. 2012: 100
4. 1919: 97
5. 1900, 1921, 1949, 2002: 96

Top 5 Coldest Highs
1. 1882, 1922: 69
2. 1924, 1967, 1978, 2008: 71
3. 1909, 1927, 1972, 1979: 72
4. 1920: 73
5. 1937, 1989: 74

Top 5 Warmest Lows
1. 1911: 79
2. 1897, 1900, 1999: 75
3. 1879, 1921: 74
4. 1883, 1902, 2012: 73
5. 1899, 1919, 1991, 2004: 72

Top 5 Coldest Lows
1. 1968: 47
2. 1963: 49
3. 1996: 50
4. 1986: 51
5. 1927, 1940: 52

# of July 4ths where Precipitation was…
0: 65
Trace: 18
0.01-0.24: 32
0.25-0.49: 8
0.50-0.74: 8
0.75-0.99: 2
1.00 and Above: 2

Top 10 Wettest
1. 1984: 1.38″
2. 1935: 1.04″
3. 1915: 0.86″
4. 1932: 0.84″
5. 1957: 0.66″
6. 2008: 0.61″
7. 1939: 0.60″
8. 2003: 0.59″
9. 1926: 0.58″
10. 2006: 0.56″

Ohio’s most infamous July 4th weather event, occurred in 1969. Severe thunderstorms developed over southeastern Michigan and moved southeastward into the Ohio lakeshore communities around 7:30PM on July 4th. Every lakeshore community from Toledo to Cleveland was affected, as well as areas further inland. The storms continuously trained over the same areas from Lucas to Wayne counties for several hours, dropping torrential rains, tornadoes, high winds, hail and lightning. Rainfall in a 100-mile stretch from just southeast of Toledo into Wayne County totaled 6″-14″. These rains caused record local flooding. All told, the storms of July 4th-5th, 1969 caused $65 million in damage, damaged or destroyed 10,000 homes, 7,000 cars, 104 businesses, 300 mobile homes and more than 700 boats. 41 people were killed and 559 were injured, mostly from flooding. This was the 3rd most damaging flood in Ohio history, behind January 1959 and March 1913. Columbus was too far south to see any of the storms and received just 0.03″ of rain for the period.