Columbus Housing Market July 2013




Columbus housing market July 2013

In this edition of the Columbus Housing Market July 2013, we see from Columbus Realtorsthat the housing market has been pretty white hot, and metro area sales set monthly records in July with an increase over 28%. July also featured the 3rd highest sales of any month on record.

I looked at the 21 major areas of Franklin County (11 urban, 10 suburban). Here is what the July market looked like.

Top 10 July Sales Totals
1. Columbus: 1,055
2. Dublin: 95
3. Upper Arlington: 91
4. Clintonville: 85
5. Westerville: 68
6. Grove City: 66
7. Hilliard: 60
8. Reynoldsburg: 46
9. Gahanna: 42
10. Pickerington: 38

Top 10 July Sales Increases Over July 2012
1. Minerva Park: +300.0%
2. German Village: +154.5%
3. Grove City: +83.3%
4. Reynoldsburg: +70.4%
5. Canal Winchester: +60.0%
6. Whitehall: +55.6%
7. Pataskala: +41.2%
8. Clintonville: +37.1%
9. Columbus: +35.8%
10. New Albany: +32.0%

Top 10 Total YTD Sales Through July
1. Columbus: 6,072
2. Dublin: 480
3. Upper Arlington: 447
4. Clintonville: 423
5. Westerville: 375
6. Grove City: 363
7. Hilliard: 338
8. Gahanna: 315
9. Reynoldsburg: 310
10. Pickerington: 203

Top 10 YTD Sales Increases Through over July 2012
1. Whitehall: +42.7%
2. Hilliard: +42.0%
3. Bexley: +38.7%
4. Reynoldsburg: +36.6%
5. Pataskala: +35.9%
6. German Village: +34.7%
7. Pickerington: +34.4%
8. Minerva Park: +31.3%
9. Clintonville: +31.0%
10. Westerville: +29.8%

Average Sales July 2013
Urban: 124.7
Suburban: 50.4
Urban without Columbus: 31.7

Average % Change July 2013 vs. July 2012
Urban: +48.3%
Suburban: +35.0%
Urban without Columbus: +54.0%

Average Sales YTD Through July
Urban: 699.1
Suburban: 283.4
Urban without Columbus: 161.8

Average % Change YTD vs. YTD 2012 (Through July)
Urban: +19.7%
Suburban: +28.2%
Urban without Columbus: +18.8%

Top 10 Average Sales Price
1. New Albany: $563,891
2. Upper Arlington: $389,264
3. Bexley: $370,056
4. Dublin: $350,545
5. Downtown: $329,266
6. German Village: $325,721
7. Worthington: $272,706
8. Grandview Heights: $254,470
9. Hilliard: $240,506
10. Westerville: $209,706

Top 10 Average Sales Price % Increases vs. July 2012
1. Upper Arlington: +22.3%
2. Hilliard: +18.7%
3. Grandview Heights: +13.1%
4. Downtown: +12.5%
5. Pickerington: +12.4%
6. Pataskala: +11.6%
7. Canal Winchester: +11.3%
8. Worthington: +7.5%
9. Dublin: +6.7%
10. Columbus: +6.5%

Top 10 Average Sales Price YTD
1. New Albany: $545,545
2. Upper Arlington: $355,993
3. Bexley: $347,920
4. Dublin: $333,285
5. German Village: $310,179
6. Downtown: $285,807
7. Worthington: $243,009
8. Grandview Heights: $219,100
9. Hilliard: $218,104
10. Gahanna: $202,527

Top 10 Average YTD Sales Price % Change vs. YTD 2012
1. Whitehall: +33.5%
2. Downtown: +18.6%
3. Gahanna: +13.8%
4. Minerva Park: +13.0%
5. Upper Arlington: +12.4%
6. Reynoldsburg: +9.9%
7. New Albany: +9.1%
8. Hilliard: +5.5%
9. Gahanna: 5.0%
10. Canal Winchester: +4.9%

Average Price July 2013
Urban: $230,605
Suburban: $236,871
Urban without Columbus: $239,388

Average Price % Change vs. July 2012
Urban: +1.8%
Suburban: +6.3%
Urban without Columbus: +1.3%

Average Price YTD
Urban: $214,207
Suburban: $223,511
Urban without Columbus: $223,053

Average Price % Change YTD vs. YTD 2012
Urban: +6.3%
Suburban: +5.0%
Urban without Columbus: +6.6%

Top 10 Fastest Selling Markets July 2013 (based on # of Days listings sell)
1. Grandview Heights: 9
2. Obetz: 9
3. Hilliard: 25
4. Worthington: 26
5. Upper Arlington: 29
6. Bexley: 31
7. Westerville: 38
8. Reynoldsburg: 40
9. New Albany: 42
10. Clintonville: 44

Top 10 Fastest Selling Markets YTD
1. Worthington: 36
2. Grandview Heights: 47
3. Upper Arlington: 47
4. Clintonville: 56
5. Westerville: 56
6. Hilliard: 58
7. Dublin: 59
8. New Albany: 60
9. Gahanna: 62
10. Pataskala: 62

Average # of Days before Sale, July 2013
Urban: 49.8
Suburban: 48.7
Urban without Columbus: 48.8

Average # of Days before Sale, YTD
Urban: 64.6
Suburban: 62.3
Urban without Columbus: 64.4

Top 10 Lowest Housing Supplies (based on # of months to sell all listings), July 2013
1. Worthington: 1.9
2. Grandview Heights: 2.4
3. Upper Arlington: 2.4
4. Clintonville: 2.5
5. Hilliard: 2.7
6. Westerville: 2.8
7. Dublin: 3.1
8. Bexley: 3.2
9. Gahanna: 3.6
10. Downtown: 4.0

Average # of Months to Sell All Listings
Urban: 3.7
Suburban: 4.2
Urban without Columbus: 3.6

Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales, July 2013 vs. July 2012
Urban: +55.0%
Suburban: +33.4%
Urban without Columbus: +58.0%

Average % Change of Condo Sales, July 2013 vs. July 2012
Urban: +78.4%
Suburban: +89.0%
Urban without Columbus: +82.3%

Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales YTD vs. YTD 2012
Urban: +14.4%
Suburban: +28.5%
Urban without Columbus: +13.0%

Average % Change of Condo Sales YTD vs. YTD 2012
Urban: +42.8%
Suburban: +32.7%
Urban without Columbus: +44.0%

Seems like most areas are doing fairly well, including the urban core. Of course, these number do not measure rentals, which is what is really booming right now in the residential scene.



The Scioto Peninsula Reborn




The Scioto Peninsula reborn

The Scioto Peninsula looking east.

The history of the Scioto Peninsula is much the same as the Franklinton neighborhood it resides in. Since Franklinton’s founding in 1797 (Columbus’ oldest neighborhood and predates Columbus itself by 15 years), it did not take long to figure out the area’s one major flaw: Floods. Essentially built upon a river flood plain, Franklinton flooded several times during the 19th century, but the most devastating came in 1913 and 1959. The 1913 flood, Ohio’s deadliest and most widespread natural disaster, inundated Franklinton with up to 20 feet of water in places, and the neighborhood flooded all the way back to where present-day I-70 cuts through the far western border. Franklinton suffered massive damage, and over 100 people died along the Scioto in Columbus. The flood in 1959 was less severe, thanks to flood protections put into place after 1913, but one consequence of this flood was that new construction and most renovation was all but prohibited due to the flood risk. This helped to stagnate the entire neighborhood, and combined with the urban decline for the next several decades, Franklinton gradually fell into disrepair. The Scioto Peninsula, the far eastern section of the neighborhood just across from Downtown, was always the hardest hit by flooding. As such, the 56-acre peninsula gradually became a manufacturing and warehouse site, although a few thousand people did live there in low-income housing projects. Central High School also helped to maintain a residential presence.

As manufacturing declined and more people left the urban core, the warehouses and businesses closed shop. Many were bulldozed into vacant lots. Central High was closed as a school in the early 1980s. By the mid-1990s, the area was largely empty except for Veteran’s Memorial and a handful of housing developments and businesses. Plans were in the works to help bring Franklinton back, however, and construction of the Franklinton Floodwall began at this time. This construction helped encourage COSI to move into Central High, renovating and expanding the old building in exhibit and museum space. Most of the rest of the peninsula became surface parking. In 2004, with the completion of the floodwall, building restrictions were finally lifted, but for several years, little happened. The stigma of a neighborhood in decline kept development interests away.

In 2010, Columbus came out with a list of 12 projects it wanted to accomplish in the downtown area. Some of them have come to pass, such as the renovation of the riverfront with Scioto Mile and the redevelopment of City Center into Columbus Commons. Another one of these projects was the redevelopment of the Scioto Peninsula. The city saw an opportunity in so much empty land so close to Downtown, especially coinciding with the emerging back-to-the-city movement. This prime real estate was ripe. The city began planning of this project early in 2012, as East Franklinton itself began to emerge as an artist destination. The Short North has, more or less, reached the final stage of gentrification. It’s become upscale, attracting high end retail and residential, as the number of art galleries has gradually declined due to rising rents. Franklinton has proven to be an attractive alternative, with such live-work projects as 400 Rich, which grew rapidly in its first year. Residential projects are now in the works, as well as more artist space, warehouse conversions and new bars and restaurants.

General plan for the Peninsula.

A few months back, details of the Peninsula’s redevelopment plan began to trickle out, but the official announcement finally came yesterday. Here is what we now know of the plan:

1. Veterans Memorial, built in 1955 and expanded/renovated a few times over the years, will be torn down and replaced with a new Vets. This new Vets will be of modern design, spiral in shape with glass walls and a rooftop, outdoor amphitheater. Inside will be an Ohio military museum, along with meeting and event space. Estimated costs run around $50 million.
Old Vets Memorial


New Veterans Memorial



2. Southwest of COSI, the Columbus Zoo will build a $50+ million, 50,000 square foot zoo extension. The building will include an aquarium, rainforest, outdoor zoo-themed playground and other exhibits.

3. Where the current COSI parking lots are, a large underground parking garage will be constructed to serve the 3 attractions. Once complete, the garage will be covered by a large central park.
4. While not yet designed and weren’t talked about yesterday, previous details have included elevated walkways connecting all 3 buildings across the peninsula.
5. Between Bell Street and the railroad tracts that run along the western border of the peninsula, a mix of low, mid and high-rise mixed-use buildings will go in. Ground floor retail will line streets while upper floors will be mostly residential. Between 1,000 and 1,200 residential units are planned, but private interests could easily include more given the very high demand for urban residential and the fantastic location with views of Downtown and the river. Estimated costs exceed $100 million.
6. Not included specifically in the peninsula plan, but surely also impacting it, will be the Scioto River itself. Another one of the 12 projects is the removal of low-head dams through Downtown. This will lower the river level through Downtown, creating 33 acres of new land that will be landscaped into park space. Bike paths and walkways will also be constructed on this new land. The river itself will run faster, cleaner and open up more potential recreational uses. This project is set to begin this fall and complete in 2015. Estimated costs for the project are around $25 million.

The Riverfront after reconstruction.

The Riverfront now.

7. After the completion of the river restoration project, another one of the 12 ideas should begin. That will be the construction of a signature pedestrian bridge connecting North Bank Park in the Arena District with the Scioto Peninsula near the new Vets. There are no cost estimates at this time.

So given all this, the Scioto River and the Scioto Peninsula are looking at several hundred million in investment and development over the next several years. This will radically change the riverfront, and has the potential to jumpstart Franklinton, especially eastern parts, in ways not seen in many decades.

Much more about local development can be found here:
Development Under Construction
Proposed Development



Columbus Murders by Census Tract 2008-2012



A few days ago, I posted maps for murders by zip code. Because zip codes encompass such large areas, they aren’t as accurate in showing where murders are taking place within them. To help show this more, I broke the maps down into Columbus murders by census tract. While the tracts can include large areas also, they are much smaller than zip codes and allow us to see more at the neighborhood level.

So here they are.




The same forces spreading murder further out into the suburbs in the zip codes seems to be at play in tracts as well.
Here are the totals for the entire period.

The High Street corridor from Merion Village up through Worthington has very low or non-existent murder rates. This is also true for most of Whitehall, surprisingly, Bexley, most of the Northwest Side and much of the North Side, apart from the Tamarack Circle area.

Columbus Crime Statistics provide additional maps and data for local crime back to 1985.



Columbus Murders by Zip Code 2008-2012




I have been wanting to do these maps for awhile now, as there have been several searches on the site for them and they weren’t available. The maps look at Columbus murders by zip code 2008-2012, highlighting which zip codes have seen the most murders by year and across the period as a whole.

2008
Columbus murders by zip code
In 2008, almost all murders were contained within the I-270 boundaries. The East and South Sides were the worst areas.

2009

In 2009, there began to be a bit of diffusion on where murder was taking place. While parts of the urban core remained the worst areas, suburban areas also saw the occasional murder.

2010

The diffusion continued in 2010.

2011

And in 2011.

2012

2012 was the most diffuse of all the years, with no heavily concentrated areas, even in the urban core as much. Meanwhile, most of the suburban zip codes within Franklin County saw at least 1 murder.

The question is, what do we make of this? This is only a 5-year data set, but it may be supporting evidence for current urban trends. The first trend being that the urban core is rapidly gentrifying in many areas. The second being that poverty is, through economic and development trends, is spreading further out from the core. Concentrated poverty and crime go hand in hand, so while the suburbs may see a bit of increase in crime, the urban core is starting to see less. Something to watch over time to see if such trends continue.

2008-2012

What strikes me about the 5-year map is that Grandview/Upper Arlington have been entirely murder free while every zip around them have had at least one. Also, Downtown is also relatively murder free, as is Bexley and the Clintonville areas.

Of course, zip codes include large areas. What are the neighborhoods that are actually seeing murders and which ones are not? To find out, we’ll have to go down to the tract level. Over the next few days, I’ll post those maps.

More local crime statistics back to 1985 can be found here: Columbus Crime Statistics
The https://www.columbus.gov/police/ site provides annual reports, crime descriptions and other local department information.



Columbus Poverty vs. Ohio Cities



Columbus poverty

Columbus poverty, like poverty everywhere else, is not exactly a positive metric. But how does its own rate compare to that of other Ohio cities? The following numbers are based off the American Community Survey. They are estimates, not physical counts like the population census, so there is a definite fudge factor involved with them as to their overall accuracy. 2011 is the latest year available for the ACS estimates.

2011 % of City Population Living in Poverty, Lowest to Highest
1. Columbus: 23.2%
2. Akron: 28.9%
3. Cincinnati: 29.5%
4. Toledo: 30.1%
5. Youngstown: 33.2%
6. Cleveland: 34.3%
7. Dayton: 35.7%

Change from 2010-2011
Cincinnati: -3.6%
Akron: -1.7%
Cleveland: +0.9%
Columbus: +2.7%
Dayton: +3.5%
Youngstown: +4.4%
Toledo: +16.7%
Change from 2007-2011
Youngstown: +1.8%
Columbus: +10.5%
Cleveland: +16.3%
Dayton: +18.2%
Akron: +22.5%
Cincinnati: +25.5%
Toledo: +33.2%

Change from 2000-2011
1. Cleveland: +30.4%
2. Youngstown: +33.9%
3. Cincinnati: +34.7%
4. Dayton: +55.2%
5. Columbus: +56.8%
6. Akron: +65.1%
7. Toledo: +68.2%

2011 % of Metro Population Living in Poverty, Lowest to Highest
1. Cincinnati: 14.3%
2. Columbus: 15.4%
3. Cleveland: 16.0%
4. Youngstown: 16.1%
5. Akron: 16.6%
6. Dayton: 17.6%
7. Toledo: 20.2%

Change from 2010-2011
1. Youngstown: -5.8%
2. Columbus: -1.9%
3. Cincinnati: +2.1%
4. Cleveland: +6.0%
5. Akron: +7.1%
6. Dayton: +8.0%
7. Toledo: +16.1%

Change from 2007-2011
1. Youngstown: +8.8%
2. Columbus: +14.9%
3. Akron: +23.9%
4. Cleveland: +26.0%
5. Cincinnati: +28.8%
6. Toledo: +36.5%
7. Dayton: +37.5%

Change from 2000-2011
1. Youngstown: +40.0%
2. Cleveland: +48.1%
3. Cincinnati: +50.5%
4. Columbus: +55.5%
5. Toledo: +66.9%
6. Akron: +69.4%
7. Dayton: +76.0%