The Housing Market Update September 2022 data from Columbus Realtors continued to support that the local housing shortage is as bad as ever, with low supplies and rising prices.
Note: LSD= Local School District, CSD= City School District. In both cases, school district boundaries differ from city boundaries.
The least populated counties saw some of the largest swings either positively or negatively, which is typically the case given that prices can be determined by a much smaller number of home sales.
Overall Market Median Sales Price in September 2022: $316,812 Based on the 10 Columbus Metro Area counties, the metro price saw about a $10,000 increase over August 2022 and a more than $42,000 increase versus September 2021. Overall Market Median Sales Price % Change in September 2022 versus September 2021: +15.4%
Now let’s take a look at individual neighborhoods and places within the metro area.
New Albany and some of the other expected suburbs continued to top the charts, but with prices not quite as high as over the summer.
Just 4 local markets out of more than 50 remained below the $200K market in September. Columbus itself was in it usual spot closer to the *relatively* more affordable bottom.
Total Metro New Listings in September 2022: 2,725 Total Metro New Listings Change from September 2021 to September 2022: -500 Year-over-year, new listings were down significantly across the metro area, but especially in Franklin County.
Average # of Days Homes Remain on the Market Before Sale for the Metro Overall in September 2022: 19.9 # of Days Homes Remain on the Market Before Sale for the Metro September 2021 vs. September 2022: -0.3 Homes across the market sold slightly faster than a year ago, but largely due to significant drops in a few rural counties. Most counties saw small increases.
The vast majority of local markets saw substantial increases in the number of days before sale, which is pretty much the only measurement indicating the seller’s market may finally be showing some signs of weakness.
In Random Columbus Photos 10, we look toward the East Side.
Photo Location: James Road, looking north from Livingston Avenue. Photo Date: August 16, 1950 Photo History: This photo of a very primitive James Road was taken by the City in preparation for installing a sewer system in the area. There were very few homes and other buildings on James at the time, and the area was still mostly farmland. The homes on the left side of the photo had only just been completed, and were the first of large-scale, small-home subdivisions that now dominate this part of the city and neighboring Whitehall. By 1953, the entire area seen in the photo would be fully developed and unrecognizable. The same view today:
Thousands of historic before and after photos from across the city can be found on the Historic Building Database.
For the Housing Market Update August 2022, data from Columbus Realtors shows that the overall market saw a decrease in home sales and units on the market versus a year ago, a situation that contributed to the continuation of rising prices. So far, it doesn’t appear there has been any sustained impact yet from increasing interest rates. More data was added to this update than usual, including some county-level information.
Note: LSD= Local School District, CSD= City School District. In both cases, school district boundaries differ from city boundaries.
Median Sales Price By Columbus Metro County in August 2022 and Total Change vs. August 2021 1. Delaware: $448,000 +$34,000 2. Union: $420,000 +$83,500 3. Fairfield: $308,950 +$13,950 4. Hocking: $306,000 +$135,550 5. Pickaway: $295,000 +$42,000 6. Franklin: $285,700 +$15,700 7. Licking: $285,500 +$10,600 8. Madison: $272,000 +$9,500 9. Morrow: $230,000 +$50,000 10. Perry: $216,000 -$4,000
Median Sales Price % Change August 2022 vs. August 2021 1. Hocking: +79.5% 2. Morrow: +27.8% 3. Union: +24.8% 4. Pickaway: +16.6% 5. Delaware: +8.2% 6. Franklin: +5.8% 7. Fairfield: +4.7% 8. Licking: +3.9% 9. Madison: +3.6% 10. Perry: -1.8% Licking County saw relatively low growth in its home prices the past year, but that is almost certainly to change in the near future. Franklin County median home prices are still in the bottom half for total and growth.
Overall Market Median Sales Price in August: $306,715 Based on the 10 Columbus Metro Area counties. This price was a bit lower than in July, but almost $40,000 higher than August, 2021.
Top 15 Most Expensive Locations By Median Sales Price in August 2022 1. New Albany: $750,000 2. Grandview Heights: $685,000 3. New Albany Plain LSD: $575,500 4. Bexley: $575,000 5. Powell: $563,000 6. German Village: $554,500 7. Dublin: $552,500 8. Upper Arlington CSD: $540,000 9. Olentangy LSD: $500,000 10. Dublin CSD: $485,000 11. Short North: $465,000 12. Jonathan Alder LSD: $443,900 13. Granville CSD: $426,500 14. Northridge LSD: 417,340 15. Big Walnut LSD: $414,000 Median prices were generally lower in August than July, but still up versus August 2021.
Top 15 Least Expensive Metro Locations by Median Sales Price in August 2022 1. Circleville CSD: $150,000 2. Whitehall: $171,600 3. Valleyview: $184,900 4. Hamilton LSD: $187,500 5. Miami Trace LSD: $203,000 6. Lancaster CSD: $210,000 7. Jefferson LSD: $219,750 8. Newark CSD: $220,000 9. Columbus CSD: $234,900 10. Groveport Madison LSD: $250,000 11. Columbus: $256,000 12. South Western CSD: $273,700 13. Reynoldsburg CSD: $276,450 14. London CSD: $276,750 15. Minerva Park: $284,950
Top 15 Metro Locations with the Highest Median Sales Price % Growth Between August 2021 and August 2022 1. Bexley: +70.4% 2. Newark CSD: +29.4% 3. Obetz: +28.8% 4. London CSD: +25.8% 5. Grove City: +20.7% 6. Valleyview: +19.3% 7. Teays Valley LSD: +19.2% 8. Grandview Heights: +19.1% 9. Marysville CSD: +18.4% 10. Hilliard: +17.9% 11. Beechwold/Clintonville: +17.0% 12. Gahanna: +17.0% 13. Powell: +16.7% 14. New Albany: +16.3% 15. New Albany Plain LSD: +15.8% 16. Blacklick: +15.7%
Top 15 Locations with the Lowest Median Sales Price % Growth Between August 2021 and August 2022 1. Circleville CSD: -20.6% 2. Minerva Park: -9.3% 3. Granville CSD: -6.3% 4. Hamilton LSD: -3.8% 5. Jefferson LSD: -3.2% 6. Lancaster CSD: -2.8% 7. Big Walnut LSD: -0.4% 8. Buckeye Valley LSD: +0.9% 9. Downtown: +1.0% 10. Sunbury: +1.1% 11. Westerville: +2.2% 12. Johnstown-Monroe LSD: +3.2% 13. Columbus: +3.6% 14. Canal Winchester CSD: +4.3% 15. Westerville CSD: +4.5%
Overall Market Median Sales Price % Change August 2022 vs. August 2021:+14.6%
New Listings by Metro County in August 2022 and Change From August 2021 1. Franklin: 1,837 -361 2. Delaware: 314 -46 3. Licking: 255 -56 4. Fairfield: 230 -61 5. Pickaway: 91 +2 6. Union: 90 -19 7. Madison: 44 -4 8. Morrow: 40 -23 9. Hocking: 35 -9 10. Perry: 35 +7
Total Metro New Listings in August 2022: 2,971 Total Metro New Listings Change from August 2021 to August 2022: -570
% Change of New Listings by Metro County August 2021-August 2022 1. Morrow: -36.5% 2. Fairfield: -21.0% 3. Hocking: -20.5% 4. Licking: -18.0% 5. Union: -17.4% 6. Franklin: -16.4% 7. Delaware: -12.8% 8. Madison: -8.3% 9. Pickaway: +2.2% 10. Perry: +25.0%
% Change of Metro New Listings August 2021 to August 2022: -16.1% New listings continued year-over-year declines. Until the supply really starts to grow- or demand falls- prices will continue to rise.
Top 10 Locations with the Most New Listings in August 2022 1. Columbus: 1,224 2. Columbus CSD: 856 3. South Western CSD: 192 4. Olentangy LSD: 155 5. Hilliard CSD: 135 6. Westerville CSD: 122 7. Dublin CSD: 111 8. Pickerington LSD: 87 9. Upper Arlington CSD: 81 10. Grove City: 71
Top 10 Locations with the Fewest New Listings in August 2022 1. Valleyview: 1 2. Minerva Park: 3 3. Lithopolis: 6 4. Obetz: 6 5. Jefferson LSD: 8 6. Granville CSD: 9 7. Sunbury: 11 8. New Albany: 12 9. Grandview Heights: 13 10. Northridge LSD: 14 11. Miami Trace LSD: 14 12. German Village: 16 13. Bexley: 16
Metro Counties by # of Days Homes Remain on the Market Before Sale in August 2022 1. Fairfield: 12 2. Franklin: 13 3. Licking: 13 4. Union: 14 5. Delaware: 16 6. Perry: 16 7. Madison: 18 8. Hocking: 22 9. Pickaway: 26 10. Morrow: 36
Average # of Days Homes Remain on the Market Before Sale for the Metro Overall in August 2022: 18.6 # of Days Homes Remain on the Market Before Sale for the Metro August 2021 vs. August 2022: +7.0 In one of the few signs of a potential slowdown, homes took a week more on average to sell than they did during the same period last year.
Top 10 Fastest-Selling Locations by # of Days Homes Remain on the Market Before Sale in August 2022 1. Valleyview: 4 2. Blacklick: 6 3. Lithopolis: 6 4. Gahanna: 7 5. Gahanna Jefferson CSD: 8 6. Pickerington: 8 7. Pickerington LSD: 8 8. Granville CSD: 9 9. Newark CSD: 9 10. Powell: 9 11. Reynoldsburg CSD: 9 12. Buckeye Valley LSD: 10 13. Dublin: 10 14. Hilliard: 10 15. Hilliard CSD: 10 16. Marysville CSD: 10 17. Westerville CSD: 10 18. Canal Winchester CSD: 11 19. German Village: 11 20. Johnstown-Monroe LSD: 11 21. Northridge LSD: 11 22. Sunbury: 11 23. Westerville: 11 24. Worthington CSD: 11 25. Circleville CSD: 12 26. Delaware CSD: 12 27. Grandview Heights: 12 28. Groveport Madison LSD: 12 29. Worthington: 12 30. Columbus: 13 31. Dublin CSD: 13 32. South Western CSD: 13 33. Hamilton LSD: 14 34. Lancaster CSD: 14 35. Whitehall: 14
Top 10 Slowest-Selling Locations by # of Days Homes Remain on the Market Before Sale in August 2022 1. Downtown: 47 2. Obetz: 33 3. Teays Valley LSD: 32 4. Miami Trace LSD: 28 5. Short North: 26 6. Minerva Park: 22 7. Pataskala: 22 8. Big Walnut LSD: 20 9. New Albany: 20 10. New Albany Plain LSD: 19 11. Upper Arlington CSD: 18 12. Olentangy LSD: 17
Top 10 Locations with the Greatest % Decline of # of Days on the Market Before Sale August 2022 vs. August 2021 1. Valleyview: -69.2% 2. Powell: -52.6% 3. Sunbury: -50.0% 4. Grandview Heights: -45.5% 5. German Village: -35.3% 6. Downtown: -29.9% 7. Gahanna Jefferson CSD: -27.3% 8. New Albany: -25.9% 9. Bexley: -20.0% 10. Short North: -7.1%
Top 10 Locations with the Lowest % Decline of # of Days on the Market Before Sale August 2022 vs. August 2021 1. Teays Valley LSD: +300.0% 2. Miami Trace LSD: +211.1% 3. Delaware CSD: +200.0% 4. Groveport Madison LSD: +200.0% 5. Whitehall: +180.0% 6. Minerva Park: +175.0% 7. Pataskala: +175.0% 8. Northridge LSD: +120.0% 9. Obetz: +120.0% 10. Lithopolis: +100.0% 11. Pickerington: +80.0% 12. London CSD: +77.8% 13. Circleville CSD: +71.4%
Intel’s big project northeast of New Albany is now well-known. People are both excited and cynical about all the potential impacts that will come with it. But what is not discussed nearly as much- and is arguably just as important long-term- is what happens to all the land around it. Rumors are already flying about developers scrambling to snatch up as much land as they can for housing, and that is no doubt true. The land is largely a blank slate, so what happens to it from this point is entirely up to the cities, towns and townships that the land sits within. Without a coordinated effort and plan, the area will almost certainly become a nightmarish cluster**** of low-density sprawl and endless traffic, which would be to the detriment of all.
So what can be done? How we should develop around Intel is not really the open question some might think. The answer, it seems, is pretty obvious once you get into the details of what types of development provide the most economic and social benefits.
The Area Today The main Intel site is bounded by Green Chapel Road, Mink Street, Miller Road and Clover Valley Road, encompassing about 1,000 acres, but a larger expansion area is about 3x that size, as shown by the map below. This area is largely rural and almost entirely made up of farms. There is very little organized development between New Albany and Johnstown, which this site sits between. 2-lane Rt. 62, otherwise known as Johnstown-Utica Road, is the main connection between the two and runs just north of the Intel site.
How Rt. 62 looks today.
Clover Valley Road adjacent to the Intel site.
Planned/Ongoing Infrastructure Changes 2022-2023 -Jug Street between Beech Road and Clover Valley Road is being widened to 3 lanes. -Jug Street between Clover Valley Road and Mink Street will be widened, but still be 2 lanes. -Green Chapel Road between Rt. 62 and Clover Valley Road will be widened to 3 lanes. -Green Chapel Road between Clover Valley Road and Mink Street will be widened to 5 lanes. -Mink Street between 161 and Green Chapel Road will be widened to 5 lanes. 2024-2025 -Harrison Road between Clover Valley Road and Mink Street will be widened to 3 lanes and will be extended between Clover Valley Road and Jug Street. -Clover Valley Road will be widened to 3 lanes between Jug Street and Green Chapel Road. -Beech Road between Innovation Corridor Way and Jug Street will be widened to 5 lanes. -Beech Road between Jug Street and Rt. 62 will be widened to 3 lanes. -Miller Road between Beech Road and Clover Valley Road will be widened to 3 lanes.
Beyond these road changes, little of anything else is planned. Where Intel has made a presence in other communities in other states, unregulated sprawl seemed to be what mainly happened, but that doesn’t have to happen here. Here is a general outline of what could be.
Map Highlights -Rt. 62 becomes a mixed-use commercial, retail, restaurant and residential corridor along a tree-line boulevard capable of handling either bike or transit lanes (or both). Several other roads around the area also become boulevards. A “town center” of sorts could be created at the 4-way intersection in red, with mixed-use corridors in all 4 directions. South of 62, medium to high-density residential on a street grid would be the best use, while north of 62 would be more of a mixed-density residential development on a street grid. In both cases, the residential areas would be dotted with parks and playgrounds, corner shops, cafes and other amenities. The Intel site and surrounding area itself is already basically spoken for, with several areas of planned expansion, while further to the south, New Albany’s business park could see gradual expansion as well.
Now, none of this is more than a thought experiment. There is likely to be heavy NIMBY opposition by locals to any major development, let alone what would be considered a more urban and dense style. However, development is going to happen with or without local approval. The demand will be incredible and far too strong for it to be killed off entirely. All that opposition is likely to accomplish is to create all of the problems they think they’re trying to prevent. There are reasons to go with density and grids over not. Here are just a few of the advantages of a street-grid-based higher density plan:
1. Higher land values. Gridded street layouts tend to haver higher land values than sprawl. 2. Taxes. Gridded streets allow for the creation of higher densities, and as mentioned, higher land values. Cities and towns therefore get a much greater tax return than they would with sprawl. 3. Lower traffic. Gridded streets allow more connectivity between one street and another, and therefore provide more routes to choose from when attempting to avoid traffic. This allows for more traffic dispersal across the board. 4. Lower infrastructure costs. Higher densities allow infrastructure costs to be divided among a greater population, creating a lower general financial burden for residents, as well as local and state entities. 5. More adaptability. It is much easier and cheaper to rebuild along gridded streets than it is the winding streets in the average sprawled neighborhood. The infrastructure doesn’t need to be rebuilt to change development patterns. So low-density housing can be built on a grid initially and then gradually replaced with higher density residential or mixed-use depending on demand. 6. Better transit access. It is very difficult to build transit systems within a sprawled area. Winding roads prevent higher travel speeds for transit, making them inefficient and slow. These systems are also rarely, if ever, built during the initial creation of sprawled neighborhoods. Sprawl is not very adaptable to adding them later if the population density becomes significant enough in the future to support them. 7. Safer for pedestrians. Because gridded streets do such a better job at traffic dispersal, they can be narrower than say, your typical American stroad. As such, narrower streets tend to slow down traffic, lowering the risk of harm to pedestrians and bikers.
So the benefits are pretty clear, but will anyone see them? Johnstown’s government is currently a hot mess, New Albany- which at least has a bit of a track record in planning- doesn’t own any of the land, and neither have hinted whatsoever that they’d even be interested in coming up with a plan. Few, if any, of the developers buying up property have any sort of track record outside of sprawl. Enormous changes are coming for this area, and for Central Ohio as a whole. It’s going to take forward-thinking leadership to step up- and soon- before it’s too late.
For the Columbus economy July 2022 report, we find several local industries in record high territory, but with a metro labor force that is barely growing. The data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Overall Metro Area July 2022 and Change from July 2021 Labor Force: 1,136,345 +1,050 Employed: 1,093,966 +13,074 Unemployed: 42,379 -12,024 Unemployment Rate: 3.7% -1.1 Total Non-Farm Jobs: 1,126,200 +16,400 Numbers continued the trend of improvement year-over-year, but labor force growth remained relatively slow.
Overall Metro Area July 2022 and Change from February 2020 (Pre-Pandemic) Labor Force: 1,136,345 +15,541 Employed: 1,093,966 +17,126 Unemployed: 42,379 -1,585 Unemployment Rate: 3.7% -0.2 Total Non-Farm Jobs: 1,126,200 +14,800 The overall metro area remained better in July than the last month prior to the pandemic.
Now let’s view the results by industry.
Mining/Logging/Construction 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 45,200————46,800———48,200 These industries remain near their all-time highs for total metro jobs. Mining/Logging/Construction Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020————7/2021———7/2022 4.3——————4.2————–4.3
Manufacturing 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 70,100———–72,700———-72,900 Manufacturing has largely recovered from pandemic losses, but remains well below historic highs achieved decades ago. Manufacturing Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020————7/2021———-7/2022 6.7——————6.6—————6.5
Trade/Transportation/Utilities 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 215,000———-225,400———240,200 These industries are at historic highs. Trade/Transportation/Utilities Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020————7/2021———7/2022 20.4—————–20.3———–21.3
Information 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 15,300———–16,000———-17,000 While nowhere near previous highs of the late 1990s-early 2000s “Dot.com” boom, this industry has been steadily growing since it hit a pandemic bottom in late 2020, and has returned to levels last seen in 2019. Information Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020————7/2021———-7/2022 1.5——————1.4—————1.5
Financial Activities 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 85,200———–85,900———-85,600 Financial jobs initially recovered from the pandemic recession, but then in late 2021 through part of 2022 plummeted to their lowest levels in 6 years. However, since May, they have been shooting back up and are once again close to historic highs. Financial Activities Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020————7/2021———-7/2022 8.1——————7.7—————7.6
Professional and Business Services 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 172,800———-183,800———181,200 These industries have been hovering around their highs since about 2015, so it seems like these jobs have not been changing much in recent years. Professional and Business Services Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 16.4—————-16.6————–16.1
Education and Health Services 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 152,100———-159,800———161,800 While these industries have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, they are relatively close to doing so. Education and Health Services Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 14.4—————-14.4————-14.4
Leisure and Hospitality 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 90,600———–105,600————108,000 This industry should be near historic highs by the holiday season, despite being hit the hardest during the recent recession. Leisure and Hospitality Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020————7/2021————7/2022 8.6——————9.5——————9.6
Other Services 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 37,400———–41,100———-41,900 This industry is near historic highs. Other Services Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 3.5—————–3.7—————-3.7
Government 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 170,100———-172,700———169,400 Government jobs have been in a slow decline since the pandemic recession. Government Jobs as a % of Total Metro Jobs 7/2020———–7/2021———-7/2022 16.1—————15.6————–15.0
