One of the big factors in determining both relocations and local quality of life is crime rates by city. These rates give people an idea, or at least the perception, of which cities are safe and which are not. In this first part of a series, we take a look at violent and property crime rates for all US cities with populations at or above 250,000.

To make the comparison, I used the FBI’s Uniform Crime data, which generally goes back to the 1980s. I won’t be going back quite that far, but I will compare 3 different more recent years for each city and rank them.

Some caveats with the data: UCI collects voluntary data, so cities provide the data themselves to the FBI rather than the FBI collecting it directly.  This means that cities can potentially fudge the data if they want to by reporting fewer crimes than actually occurred.  Cities, especially those in high tourism states, have some incentive to do this given perceived safety is extremely important to economic outcomes.  That said, it’s not exactly a free-for-all reporting system, either.  There are certain standards that have to be met for data to be accepted, and reported numbers are occasionally rejected and not included in the UCI data.

In any case, this is going to be a big post, so bear with me!

City Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 People By Year
2000————————————-2010———————————2020
1. Atlanta: 2781.2———————1. Detroit: 2377.9——————–1. Memphis: 2418.2
2. Baltimore: 2457.6——————2. Las Vegas: 2166.7————–2. Detroit: 2248.4
3. Detroit: 2324.5———————-3. St. Louis: 1943.4—————-3. St. Louis: 1995.2
4. St. Louis: 2279.2——————-4. Memphis: 1607.8—————-4. Cleveland: 1689.1
5. Miami: 2173.1———————–5. Oakland: 1603.9—————-5. Milwaukee: 1629.7
6. Orlando: 2111.3———————6. Baltimore: 1500.3————–6. Kansas City: 1558.6
7. Tampa: 2102.8———————-7. Cleveland: 1393.3————–7. Baltimore: 1460.1
8. Nashville: 1645.8——————-8. Stockton: 1382.6—————8. Las Vegas: 1391.8
9. Kansas City, MO: 1626.3———9. Buffalo: 1377.3—————-9. New Orleans: 1358.1
10. St. Petersburg: 1623.1———10. Atlanta: 1368.8————–10. Albuquerque: 1337.7
11. Chicago: 1606.4——————11. Washington DC: 1241.1—11. Oakland: 1282.9
12. Washington DC: 1507.2——–12. Kansas City: 1227.3——–12. Houston: 1278.9
13. Philadelphia: 1503.2————13. Miami: 1221.4—————–13. Stockton: 1254
14. Newark, NJ: 1495.9————-14. Cincinnati: 1217.4———–14. Wichita: 1225.6
15. Memphis: 1479.2—————-15. Philadelphia: 1214.6——–15. Anchorage: 1192.1
16. Charlotte: 1389.7—————-16. Indianapolis: 1175.7———16. Minneapolis: 1168.7
17. Los Angeles: 1359.8————17. Nashville: 1131.4————-17. Nashville: 1153.2
18. Dallas: 1349.7——————–18. St. Petersburg: 1126.8——18. Lubbock: 1109.1
19. Las Vegas: 1327—————–19. Tulsa: 1098.2——————19. Tulsa: 1102.7
20. Cleveland: 1262.7—————20. Orlando: 1080.2—————20. Toledo: 1007.5
21. Oakland, CA: 1261.1———–21. Houston: 1071.3———-21. Washington DC: 990.2
22. Lubbock, TX: 1256.7———–22. Milwaukee: 1065.2————22. Chicago: 967.9
23. Buffalo: 1249.6——————23. Minneapolis: 1062.3———–23. Buffalo: 931.2
24. Boston: 1242.8——————24. Chicago: 1053.6—————-24. Charlotte: 916.4
25. Stockton, CA: 1219.2———-25. Newark: 1041——————-25. Greensboro: 904.2
26. Jersey City: 1189.7————-26. Toledo: 993.7——————–26. Louisville: 901.5
27. Minneapolis: 1151————–27. Boston: 942.2——————–27. Aurora: 899.1
28. Albuquerque: 1144.9———-28. Pittsburgh: 919.2—————-28. Denver: 884.5
29. Tulsa: 1122.3——————-29. Oklahoma City: 914.5———-29. Dallas: 882.7
30. Jacksonville, FL: 1115.8—–30. Sacramento: 881.5————–30. Cincinnati: 881
31. Houston: 1100.1—————31. Lubbock: 871.6——————31. Indianapolis: 873.7
32. Portland, OR: 1076.9——–32. N. Las Vegas: 847.2———-32. Corpus Christi: 872.1
33. New Orleans: 1063.6——–33. Anchorage: 833.4—————-33. Durham: 863.1
34. N. Las Vegas: 1036.5——-34. Wichita: 794.5———————34. Phoenix: 848.6
35. Durham, NC: 987————35. Albuquerque: 786.1—————35. Orlando: 820.6
36. Pittsburgh: 976.5————-36. Dallas: 764.8——————–36. San Antonio: 806.4
37. Milwaukee: 956.7————37. Honolulu: 755.5——————37. St. Paul: 744.7
38. New York: 945.2————–38. New Orleans: 754.2————38. Los Angeles: 740.8
39. Tucson: 933.2—————–39. St. Paul: 740.9——————-39. Tucson: 708.2
40. Fresno, CA: 898.6———–40. Jersey City: 739.1————-40. Oklahoma City: 707.4
41. Indianapolis: 875.1———–41. San Francisco: 713.7———-41. Honolulu: 686.7
42. Greensboro, NC: 845.1—–42. Durham: 706.9——————42. St. Petersburg: 686
43. Columbus: 843—————-43. Columbus: 695.3————–43. Jacksonville: 676.5
44. Cincinnati: 840.1————–44. Corpus Christi: 677.6——–44. Sacramento: 675.7
45. San Francisco: 836.7——–45. Charlotte: 668.7—————45. Fresno: 656.7
46. St. Paul: 833.4—————–46. Jacksonville: 665.5———–46. Seattle: 655.6
47. Omaha: 811.3——————47. Tampa: 646.4——————-47. Boston: 644.4
48. Riverside, CA: 786.2———48. Tucson: 640.4——————48. Omaha: 623.8
49. Oklahoma City: 780.6——–49. San Antonio: 635.4——-49. Colorado Springs: 604.6
50. El Paso: 779.9—————–50. Louisville: 625.1—————50. Miami: 598.1
51. Seattle: 769.1——————51. Fresno: 613.3——————51. Columbus: 559.2
52. Sacramento: 765.8———–52. Bakersfield: 605.5————-52. Reno: 552.7
53. Toledo: 758.9—————–53. New York: 593.1—————-53. Tampa: 550.4
54. Corpus Christi: 758.3——-54. Long Beach: 588.4———–54. San Francisco: 548.8
55. Raleigh, NC: 742.1———-55. Lexington: 582.8—————-55. Fort Worth: 547.3
56. Phoenix: 738.4—————56. Fort Worth: 580.3—————56. New York: 544.7
57. Lexington, KY: 724.7——–57. Seattle: 577.5——————-57. Arlington: 543.3
58. Fort Worth: 713.7————58. Los Angeles: 566.5————58. Portland: 531
59. Long Beach, CA: 696.8—-59. Denver: 564.4——————-59. N. Las Vegas: 509.3
60. San Antonio: 690.9———-60. Greensboro: 560.7————-60. Long Beach: 502
61. Arlington, TX: 647.8———62. Omaha: 556———————-61. Bakersfield: 497.5
62. Honolulu: 619.4————–62. Phoenix: 553.5——————-62. Austin: 485.6
63. Wichita: 604.4—————-63. Arlington: 526.8——————63. Newark: 478.9
64. Mesa, AZ: 603.7————-64. Portland: 522.6——————-64. Pittsburgh: 478.3
65. Anchorage: 585.5———–65. Reno: 493.4———————–65. Riverside: 473.3
66. San Diego: 585.3———–66. Lincoln: 486.9———————66. Santa Ana: 460.6
67. San Jose: 550.6————67. Laredo: 483.7———————-67. San Jose: 431.8
68. Laredo, TX: 550.5———-68. Austin: 479.5———————–68. Fort Wayne: 425.9
69. Aurora, CO: 547.4———–69. Riverside: 476.5—————–69. Raleigh: 404.3
70. Santa Ana, CA: 541.2——-70. Colorado Springs: 470.9——70. Jersey City: 399
71. Lincoln, NE: 532.4———–71. Santa Ana: 465.3—————-71. Mesa: 388.7
72. Denver: 520.2—————–72. Aurora: 445.7———————72. San Diego: 382.4
73. Chula Vista, CA: 487.5——73. El Paso: 440.7——————-73. Philadelphia: 363.4
74. Austin: 471.9——————-74. Raleigh: 430.8——————-74. Anaheim: 357.8
75. Colorado Springs: 455——-75. San Diego: 429.6—————75. Lincoln: 344.2
76. Reno, NV: 454.4—————76. Mesa: 407.7———————76. Chula Vista: 332.5
77. Anaheim, CA: 430.8———–77. Madison: 402.6—————-77. Laredo: 325.8
78. Irving, TX: 409.2—————78. Anaheim: 345.3—————–78. Lexington: 323.3
79. Fort Wayne, IN: 398.6——–79. San Jose: 339.9—————-79. El Paso: 319.2
80. Madison, WI: 327.3————80. Fort Wayne: 294.1————-80. Madison: 312
81. Bakersfield, CA: 289.8———81. Chandler: 292.6—————81. Irving: 303.7
82. Plano, TX: 280.3—————-82. Chula Vista: 271.8————-82. Atlanta: 269.5
83. Henderson, NV: 265.1———83. Irving: 244.6———————83. Henderson: 214.7
84. Chandler, AZ: 252————–84. Henderson: 210.7————–84. Chandler: 196.7
85. Virginia Beach, VA: 221.7—-85. Virginia Beach: 189.7———-85. Plano: 158.3
86. Irvine, CA: 154.5—————86. Plano: 186.3———————-86. Gilbert: 106
87. Gilbert, AZ: 112.4————–87. Gilbert: 98.8———————87.Virginia Beach: 96.9
88. Louisville, KY: N/A————-88. Irvine: 56.5————————88. Irvine: 49.4

In the above ranking, red cities were those that saw their violent crime rankings worsen vs. the previous decade, while blue cities have seen their rankings improve vs. the previous decade. Black cities are those that saw no ranking change. Keep in mind that although rankings may have changed for the better or worse, their actual violent crime rates may have moved in the opposite direction.

Top 25 Best Violent Crime Rate Changes By Period
2000-2010————————-2010-2020————————-2000-2020
1. Tampa: -1456.4—————–1. Atlanta: -1099.3—————–1. Atlanta: -2511.7
2. Atlanta: -1412.40—————2. Philadelphia: -851.2————2. Miami: -1575
3. Orlando: -1031.1—————3. Las Vegas: -774.9————–3. Tampa: -1552.4
4. Baltimore: -957.3—————4. Miami: -623.3——————–4. Orlando: -1290.7
5. Miami: -951.7——————–5. Newark: -562.1——————5. Philadelphia: -1139.8
6. Los Angeles: -793.3————6. Buffalo: -446.1——————-6. Baltimore: -997.5
7. Charlotte: -721——————7. Pittsburgh: -440.9—————7. St. Petersburg: -937.1
8. Dallas: -584.9——————–8. St. Petersburg: -440.8——–8. Jersey City: -790.7
9. Portland: -554.3—————–9. Jersey City: -340.1————-9. Chicago: -638.5
10. Chicago: -552.8————–10. N. Las Vegas: -337.9———10. Los Angeles: -619
11. Nashville: -514.4————-11. Cincinnati: -336.4————–11. Boston: -598.4
12. St. Petersburg: -496.3——12. Oakland: -321——————12. Portland: -545.9
13. Newark: -454.9—————13. Indianapolis: -302————-13. N. Las Vegas: -527.2
14. Jersey City: -450.6———-14. Boston: -297.8——————14. Washington DC: -517
15. Jacksonville: -450.3———15. Orlando: -259.6—————–15. Pittsburgh: -498.2
16. Kansas City: -399————16. Lexington: -259.5————–16. Nashville: -492.6
17. Lubbock: -385.1————–17. Washington DC: -250.9——17. Charlotte: -473.3
18. Albuquerque: -358.8——–18. Oklahoma City: -207.1——–18. Dallas: -467
19. New York: -352.1————19. Sacramento: -205.8————19. El Paso: -460.7
20. El Paso: -339.2————–20. San Francisco: -164.9———-20. Jacksonville: -439.3
21. St. Louis: -335.8————-21. Laredo: -157.9——————-21. Lexington: -401.4
22. Raleigh: -311.3—————22. Lincoln: -142.7——————22. New York: -400.5
23. Riverside: -309.7————23. Columbus: -136.1————–23. Raleigh: -337.8
24. New Orleans: -309.4——-24. Detroit: -129.5——————-24. Buffalo: -318.4
25. Boston: -300.6—————25. Stockton: -128.6—————-25. Riverside: -312.9

Top 25 Worst Violent Crime Rate Changes By Period
2000-2010—————————2010-2020—————————-2000-2020
1. Las Vegas: +839.7————1. Memphis: +810.4—————-1. Memphis: +939
2. Cincinnati: +377.3————-2. New Orleans: +603.9———–2. Milwaukee: +673
3. Oakland: +342.8—————3. Milwaukee: +564.5————–3. Wichita: +621.2
4. Bakersfield: 315.7————-4. Albuquerque: +551.6———–4. Anchorage: +606.6
5. Indianapolis: +300.6———-5. Aurora: +453.4——————-5. Cleveland: +426.4
6. Anchorage: +247.9————6. Wichita: +431.1—————–6. Denver: +364.3
7. Toledo: +234.8—————–7. Anchorage: +358.7————-7. Aurora: +351.7
8. Wichita: +190.1—————-8. Greensboro: +343.5————8. New Orleans: +294.5
9. Stockton: +163.4————–9. Kansas City: +331.3————9. Toledo: +248.6
10. Honolulu: +136.1———–10. Denver: +320.1—————–10. Bakersfield: +207.7
11. Oklahoma City: +133.9—11. Cleveland: +295.8————–11. Albuquerque: +192.8
12. Cleveland: +130.6———12. Phoenix: +295.1—————–12. Houston: +178.8
13. Memphis: +128.6———-13. Louisville: +276.1———–13. Colorado Springs: +149.6
14. Buffalo: +127.7————-14. Charlotte: +247.7—————-14. San Antonio: +115.5
15. Sacramento: +115.7——15. Lubbock: +237.5—————-15. Corpus Christi: +113.8
16. Milwaukee: +108.5——–16. Houston: +207.6—————-16. Phoenix: +110.2
17. Madison: +75.3————-17. Corpus Christi: +194.5———17. Reno: +98.3
18. Detroit: +53.4—————18. Los Angeles: +174.3————18. Honolulu: +67.3
19. Denver: +44.2————–19. San Antonio: +171—————19. Las Vegas: +64.8
20. Chandler: +40.6———–20. Durham: +156.2——————-20. Greensboro: +59.1
21. Reno: +39——————–21. Colorado Springs: +133.7—–21. Cincinnati: +40.9
22. Colorado Springs: +15.9–22. Fort Wayne: +131.8————22. Stockton: +34.8
23. Austin: +7.6——————23. Dallas: +117.9——————–23. Fort Wayne: +27.3
24. Gilbert: -13.6—————-24. Minneapolis: +106.4————24. Oakland: +21.8
25. Tulsa: -24.1—————–25. San Jose: +91.9——————25. Minneapolis: +17.7

It’s somewhat surprising just how dangerous many Sun Belt cities were in the early 2000s- and still are in some cases- despite never earning nearly any negative reputation that cities like Chicago, New York, Philly and others had. Even today, cities like Chicago are constantly mentioned for being a violent city, but yet Las Vegas, Miami, Houston, Orlando, Indianapolis and many other cites all have higher violent crime rates. It’s a classic example of both how perception is often not supported by the evidence, and how media can push skewed narratives.
Looking at Ohio cities, specifically, the picture overall is not great.  Both Cleveland and Toledo are in the top 25 cities with the highest violent crime rates, and both rates increasing.  Cincinnati was somewhat all over the place, with its rate skyrocketing 2000-2010, but then plummeting 2010-2020 to fall out of the top 25.  Columbus, meanwhile, has been in a consistent- if not slower- decline that put it outside of the top 50 by 2020.

Overall, the majority of cities saw their violent crime rates fall between 2000-2020. This, again, goes contrary to the existing narrative that cities are becoming more dangerous. The pandemic and its economic effects have caused some spikes in some places, but long-term, it remains to be seen if these trends continue or abate.

In upcoming posts, we will examine cities by both homicide rates and property crime rates. Stay tuned!