I hear all the time how Columbus is extremely suburban (low density) in its development. But where does it actually rank with its peers? One metric is looking at exurbia, the far outer suburban areas that are largely made up of sprawl. How does exurbia in the Columbus metro compare to other places?
I looked at metros of similar size to Columbus (1.5-2.5 million).
Metro Population Living in Exurbia, 2000 1. Nashville, TN: 23.1% 2. Austin, TX: 21.8% 3. Charlotte, NC: 16.7% 4. Orlando, FL: 14.7% 5. San Antonio, TX: 12.6% 6. Indianapolis, IN: 10.5% 7. Kansas City, KS: 9.0% 8. Cincinnati: 6.7% 9. Virginia Beach: 6.0% 10. Portland, OR: 5.8% 11. Columbus: 4.9% 12. Sacramento, CA: 4.1% 13. Las Vegas, NV: 3.1% 14. Providence, RI: 2.9% 15. Milwaukee, WI: 2.8% 16. San Jose, CA: 1.1% 17. Cleveland: 1.0% 18. Pittsburgh, PA: 0.8%
Metro Population Living in Exurbia, 2010 1. Austin, TX: 32.3% 2. Nashville, TN: 27.9% 3. Charlotte, NC: 22.7% 4. Orlando, FL: 21.7% 5. San Antonio, TX: 20.3% 6. Indianapolis: 15.8% 7. Kansas City, KS: 14.4% 8. Las Vegas, NV: 10.6% 9. Cincinnati: 8.8% 10. Columbus: 7.7% 11. Sacramento, CA: 7.7% 12. Virginia Beach, VA: 7.4% 13. Portland, OR: 6.7% 14. Milwaukee, WI: 3.3% 15. Providence, RI: 3.2% 16. Cleveland: 1.7% 17. Pittsburgh, PA: 1.1% 18. San Jose, CA: 1.1%
Metro Population Living in Exurbia Total % Change 2000-2010 1. Las Vegas, NV: +389.9% 2. Sacramento, CA: +123.5% 3. Austin, TX: +103.8% 4. San Antonio, TX: +101.6% 5. Orlando, FL: +92.0% 6. Charlotte, NC: +82.5% 7. Columbus: +78.4% 8. Kansas City, KS: +75.6% 9. Indianapolis, IN: +72.9% 10. Cleveland: +58.3% 11. Nashville, TN: +46.4% 12. Cincinnati: +38.7% 13. Portland, OR: +33.5% 14. Virginia Beach, VA: +31.2% 15. Pittsburgh, PA: +28.0% 16. Milwaukee, WI: +20.8% 17. Providence, RI: +10.3% 18. San Jose, CA: +9.0%
So what these numbers show is that Columbus is actually in the bottom half of exurban population vs. its 17 peers, but is in the top half of growth in that population. As can be imagined, a large part of this growth came before the recession.
Metro Exurban Population Growth 2000-2007 1. Las Vegas, NV: +285.2% 2. Sacramento, CA: +104.2% 3. Orlando, FL: +78.3% 4. Austin, TX: +74.2% 5. Columbus: +62.0% 6. Charlotte, NC: +58.4% 7. San Antonio, TX: +56.2% 8. Kansas City, KS: +55.4% 9. Indianapolis, IN: +46.4% 10. Nashville, TN: +30.6% 11. Portland, OR: +29.1% 12. Cleveland: +27.0% 13. Cincinnati: +26.2% 14. Virginia Beach, VA: +25.7% 15. Pittsburgh, PA: +16.5% 16. Milwaukee, WI: +13.3% 17. Providence, RI: +10.9% 18. San Jose, CA: +5.9%
Metro Exurban Population Growth 2007-2010 1. San Antonio, TX: +29.1% 2. Las Vegas, NV: +27.2% 3. Cleveland: +24.7% 4. Indianapolis, IN: +18.0% 5. Austin, TX: +17.0% 6. Charlotte, NC: +15.3% 7. Kansas City, KS: +13.7% 8. Nashville, TN: +12.1% 9. Columbus: +10.1% 10. Cincinnati: +9.9% 11. Pittsburgh, PA: +9.8% 12. Sacramento, CA: +9.5% 13. Orlando, FL: +7.7% 14. Milwaukee, WI: +6.7% 15. Virginia Beach, VA: +4.3% 16. Portland, OR: +3.3% 17. San Jose, CA: +2.9% 18. Providence, RI: -0.6%
Average Annual Rate Change Between 2000-2007 and 2007-2010 1. Cleveland: +117.1% 2. Pittsburgh, PA: +45.5% 3. San Antonio, TX: +34.8% 4. San Jose, CA: +25.0% 5. Milwaukee, WI: +22.2% 6. Indianapolis, IN: +1.8% 7. Nashville, TN: +0.0% 8. Cincinnati: -5.9% 9. Charlotte, NC: -29.4% 10. Kansas City, KS: -32.3% 11. Austin, TX: -34.1% 12. Columbus: -53.5% 13. Virginia Beach, VA: -57.6% 14. Las Vegas, NV: -60.8% 15. Portland, OR: -70.3% 16. Orlando, FL: -70.9% 17. Sacramento, CA: -71.0% 18. Providence, RI: -113.3%
So there you have it. Columbus is definitely not anywhere near the sprawl king it’s often made out to be, even within its own peer group. Outside of it, there are dozens of metros with far more.
Back in November, I wrote about Ohio’s improving growth outlook. In that post, I examined domestic out-migration and domestic in-migration 2005-2012, and discovered that the net change had been improving. The state was losing fewer people over time domestically, and the difference had declined to under 2,000 people by 2012, a HUGE improvement from the start of the period.
Recently, the US Census released 2013 state population estimates, along with components of population change for the July 1st, 2012-July 1st, 2013 period. More positive news was to be found in those estimates.
First, Ohio’s population increased to 11,570,808, representing an annual increase of 17,777. While the increase is not particularly great, especially in comparison to states nationally, there are some positive nuggets with that number. The state held on to its position as the 7th most populous state, and the increase was the highest since pre-recession. The state moved up 18 spots in the total annual growth rankings 2012-2013 vs. 2011-2012. This was the best increase of all 50 states. It was also the best growth for the state since 2007. Did the state bottom out in 2012? Perhaps, but way too early to tell. Still, a very good improvement that halted a general decline.
The components of change are also interesting.
The migration patterns show a few things. First, 2013 had the 2nd highest rate since 2000 of in-international migration. It was also one of the best years (since 1996) for domestic in-migration.
The question is, can Ohio keep improving or is this just a temporary blip? Time will tell.
December ended a 2-month decline in home sales for the area, with overall sales up 2.5% according to the Housing Market Update December 2013 data from Columbus Realtors.
Here are the stats for the 21 major areas of Franklin County that I look at housing stats for.
Top 10 December 2013 Sales Increases over December 2012 1. Minerva Park: +200.0% 2. Obetz: +200.0% 3. Reynoldsburg: +72.7% 4. Clintonville: +55.6% 5. Gahanna: +55.0% 6. Pataskala: +27.3% 7. Dublin: +15.4% 8. German Village: +10.0% 9. Worthington: +6.3% 10. Columbus: +3.8%
Top 10 Year-to-Date Sales Through December 2013 1. Columbus: 10,267 2. Dublin: 797 3. Upper Arlington: 719 4. Clintonville: 701 5. Westerville: 630 6. Grove City: 609 7. Hilliard: 556 8. Gahanna: 526 9. Reynoldsburg: 505 10. Pickerington: 312
Top 10 Year-to-Date Increases Through December 2013 Over 2012 1. Minerva Park: +51.9% 2. Gahanna: +31.8% 3. Pataskala: +31.0% 4. Reynoldsburg: +30.8% 5. Whitehall: +27.3% 6. Clintonville: +26.3% 7. Hilliard: +23.6% 8. Whitehall: +23.4% 9. Westerville: +21.9% 10. Bexley: +21.5%
Average Sales December 2013 Urban: 74.5 Suburban: 28.2 Urban without Columbus: 14.7
Average % Change December 2013 vs. December 2012 Urban: +40.5% Suburban: +6.4% Urban without Columbus: +44.2%
Average YTD Sales Through December 2013 Urban: 1,177.1 Suburban: 466.5 Urban without Columbus: 268.1
Average YTD % Change YTD Through December 2013 Urban: +15.7% Suburban: +19.4% Urban without Columbus: +15.3%
Top 10 Average Sales Price December 2013 1. New Albany: $563,187 2. Upper Arlington: $377,943 3. Bexley: $376,592 4. Dublin: $351,279 5. Downtown: $314,583 6. German Village: $303,136 7. German Village: $271,656 8. Hilliard: $249,811 9. Worthington: $232,741 10. Clintonville: $223,250
Top 10 Average Sales Price % Change December 2013 Over December 2012 1. Whitehall: +37.3% 2. New Albany: +32.8% 3. Pataskala: +29.6% 4. Reynoldsburg: +26.3% 5. Upper Arlington: +25.8% 6. Clintonville: +25.3% 7. Bexley: +23.7% 8. Hilliard: +21.9% 9. Gahanna: +19.6% 10. Dublin: +13.1%
Top 10 Average Sales Prices YTD Through December 2013 1. New Albany: $542,634 2. Upper Arlington: $365,143 3. Bexley: $352,214 4. Dublin: $336,048 5. German Village: $298,199 6. Downtown: $287,976 7. Worthington: $248,857 8. Grandview Heights: $223,185 9. Hilliard: $217,078 10. Gahanna: $199,546
Top 10 Average YTD Sales Price % Change Through December 2013 vs. 2012 1. Whitehall: +18.9% 2. Downtown: +14.0% 3. Minerva Park: +14.0% 4. Upper Arlington: +13.8% 5. Gahanna: +12.1% 6. New Albany: +9.8% 7. Reynoldsburg: +9.6% 8. Obetz: +9.0% 9. Worthington: +7.5% 10. Bexley: +5.8%
Average Sales Price December 2013 Urban: $218,764 Suburban: $233,048 Urban without Columbus: $227,832
Average Sales Price Change December 2012 vs. December 2012 Urban: -1.6% Suburban: +15.5% Urban without Columbus: -2.9%
Average Sales Price YTD Urban: $217,056 Suburban: $224,060 Urban without Columbus: $226,017
Average Sales Price % Change YTD Urban: +5.6% Suburban: +5.6% Urban without Columbus: +5.7%
Top 10 Fastest Selling Markets December 2013 (Based on Average # of Days for Listings to Sell) 1. Bexley: 26 2. Obetz: 42 3. New Albany: 47 4. Hilliard: 50 5. Clintonville: 51 6. Pataskala: 57 7. Gahanna: 58 8. Upper Arlington: 58 9. Reynoldsburg: 61 10. Grove City: 63
Average # of Days Before Sale, December 2013 Urban: 73.4 Suburban: 63.9 Urban without Columbus: 73.8
Average # of Days Before Sale YTD Urban: 61.3 Suburban: 62.9 Urban without Columbus: 60.9
Top 10 Lowest Market Housing Supplies (Based on # of Months to Sell all Listings) 1. Worthington: 1.2 2. Bexley: 1.8 3. Clintonville: 1.9 4. Hilliard: 1.9 5. Upper Arlington: 1.9 6. Grandview Heights: 2.1 7. Westerville: 2.1 8. Gahanna: 2.2 9. Minerva Park: 2.2 10. German Village: 2.3
A healthy housing supply is considered to be around 5 months. Anything less than 3 months is considered very low. All of the 21 areas I looked at were below 5 months, indicating a county-wide shortage. This shortage has only deepened over the last year, with December having the lowest number of available homes in nearly 15 years.
Average # of Months to Sell All Listings, December 2013 Urban: 2.7 Suburban: 3.2 Urban without Columbus: 2.6
Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales December 2013 vs. December 2012 Urban: +28.5% Suburban: +14.3% Urban without Columbus: +30.8%
Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales YTD vs. YTD 2012 Urban: +9.8% Suburban: +19.0% Urban without Columbus: +8.8%
Average % Change of Condo Sales December 2013 vs. December 2012 Urban: +20.5% Suburban: -4.2% Urban without Columbus: +20.5%
Average % Change of Condo Sales YTD vs. YTD 2012 Urban: +29.0% Suburban: +23.5% Urban without Columbus: +29.9%
2013 was a pretty significant year for Columbus, if only because it saw its busiest residential developmentyear in and around the urban core in many years. Here are the highlights of some of the biggest 2013 residential projects.
1. The South Campus High Rise and Addition Project # of New Units: 360 Project Cost: $171.6 Million Project Height: 7-8 Stories in Multiple Buildings Some might suggest that this isn’t strictly a residential project because it was student housing. However, I disagree with that. The projects added significant additions to already existing Park, Stradley, Steeb and Smith Halls by connecting the pairs together with what essentially amounted to a brand new building stuck in-between. It also involved significant renovations to other residential buildings in South Campus. This was the first part of a major renovation and expansion project for housing on OSU’s campus.
2. HighPoint at Columbus Commons # of New Units: 302 Project Cost: $50 Million Project Height: 6 Stories in 2 Buildings HighPoint was a rather unexpected surprise for Downtown. When Columbus Commons was being constructed, the plan called for residential buildings running along High Street on the west side of the park. Unfortunately, that plan was not supposed to happen for perhaps a decade or more, depending on development interests. Within a year of the completion of the park, however, HighPoint was being proposed. While not exactly the most inspired design or preferred height for such a prominent location Downtown, the projects potential 450+ residents will greatly help the neighborhood’s goal of increased vitality and 24-hour activity. In fact, it may not be too much to assume that this project has encouraged others, such as the 12-story 250 High Project and LC’s double 8-story tower project, both of which will begin construction soon just across the street from HighPoint and the park. Collectively, they will add, at minimum, over 650 new residents.
3. Liberty Place, Phase II Address: 250 Liberty Street # of New Units: 207 Project Cost: $25-$30 Million Project Height: 4 Stories Liberty Place, in the Brewery District, was completed in 2006, the last of a slew of development projects in the Brewery District beginning in the 1990s and came in the middle of a relative quiet period that began when the Arena District stole some of the neighborhoods momentum. That momentum has returned in recent years as urban living has gained significant traction in public opinion. Phase II of Liberty Place was supposed to have been built years ago, but the recession and the uncertainty regarding the exact layout of the rebuilt I-70/I-71 split which runs past the site put the project on hold. All told, Liberty Place now has 342 units.
4. Tribeca Address: 700 West Third Avenue # of New Units: 205 Project Cost: Unknown Project Height: 4 Stories Tribeca, from Edwards Communities, was built along Third Avenue in the 5thxNW neighborhood. While adding significant density to the area, the project is mostly known for its strange layout. Dubbed the “Fortress” or the “prison”, the project has a long, blank wall along Third Avenue with tower-like structures along it, resembling the fortifications of a prison. The ugly design and lack of interaction with Third because of this layout caused the project to receive a lot of criticism.
5. Lennox Flats Address: Kinnear Road, Lennox Town Center # of New Units: 194 Project Cost: Unknown Project Height: 3 Stories Lennox Flats was built over two phases, the first with 92 units and the second with 102. Built in a mostly vacant lot just to the west of Lennox Town Center (across the railroad tracks), these were built in modern-styles and were targeted at students from OSU.
6. 600 Goodale Address: 600 West Goodale Street # of New Units: 174 Project Cost: Unknown Project Height: 5 Stories 600 Goodale is likely the most strangely located new project of 2013. It was built on a small strip of land located north of Goodale Street across from White Castle’s HQ building. The location is strange because the land is bordered by the Olentangy River on the west and a highway exit ramp to the north and east sides. In fact, the site sits on a section of land between 315, 670 and major ramps for both to the north. The land is not directly connected to any major neighborhood. Despite the strange location, the modern building was, at last count, 96% leased.
So those were the top 6 largest projects from 2013. More than 2,200 total units were completed in the urban areas of Columbus.
But what’s coming for 2014? Here are the top 5.
1. Jeffrey Park Phase 1 Address: E. 1st Avenue and N. 4th Street, Italian Village # of New Units: 334 Project Cost: $180 Million+ For all phases. Project Height: 4 Stories The Jeffrey Manufacturing site has long been planned for redevelopment. It is, by far, the largest undeveloped site in Italian Village or anywhere in the Short North. Previous plans from the early-mid 2000s fell through, but were revived by a new developer in recent years. The first phase calls for the completion of a mix of townhomes and apartments in a mix of styles. A community center is also planned with a gym and pool. Although this project was supposed to start in the fall of 2013, calls are now for it to begin before winter is over. This may delay the finish for this project into 2015, but for now, it’s still the biggest project for 2014. The entire Jeffrey site will eventually have more than 1,300 new units.
2. Taylor House Address: 5005 Olentangy River Road # of New Units: 329 Project Cost: Unknown Project Height: 4 Stories This project along Bethel Road will go into the site of a former K-Mart. Construction began over the fall and should wrap up toward the end of the year.
3. View on 5th Address: 965 West 5th Avenue # of New Units: 285 Project Cost: $50 Million Project Height: 6 Stories The View on 5th, in 5thxNW, is a 2-building complex along 5th and Holly Avenues. The 6-story building along 5th will contain 153 apartments with ground-floor retail, while the Holly Avenue building would be 3-stories and contain 132 units. The project is scheduled for completion this coming summer.
4. Berkeley House Address: Bethel Road and Riverside Drive # of New Units: 256 Project Cost: Unknown Project Height: 4-5 Stories Berkeley House is being built by the same company as Taylor House, only on opposite ends of Bethel Road. This will be a mixed-use complex featuring apartments and offices. There was some controversy surrounding this project as it sought to demolish a small stone house from around 1808. Unfortunately, no one seemed to realize the historical significance or age of the structure until the project was set to begin construction. The lack of time made it impossible to raise the money to move the house, so it was demolished. The Upper Arlington Historical Society saved the stone from the house and plans to build some type of marker with it.
Unfortunately, I have not seen any renderings for this project yet, but it has begun construction.
5. Neighborhood Launch Address: East Long Street, Downtown # of New Units: 130 Project Cost: Unknown Project Height: 5 Stories Neighborhood Launch is an ongoing project Downtown. About 200 units have already been completed along and near the Gay Street Corridor. The project is continuing with the first of 2 buildings, each containing 130 units, along Long Street. The first of these 2 should be complete later this year, with the 2nd beginning construction over the summer.
The first two weeks of January 1996 proved to be a very wintry period, culminating in the severe Blizzard of 1996. Although this storm was made famous for its effects on the Eastern Seaboard, it also had a significant impact on areas to the west of the Appalachians, and was one of the worst winter storms the state had seen in nearly 20 years.
This storm developed in the Gulf of Mexico on January 6th and moved up along the East Coast through the 7th. Forecasts for Ohio were not especially indicative of an impending major storm. A weak low pressure moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys was supposed to die out as the main storm on the Coast took over. Therefore, Ohio was not forecast to be hit especially hard from this storm, as the Area Forecast Discussion goes into on the after of January 5th. FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 243 PM EST FRI JAN 5 1996 AGAIN HVG TRBL GETTING GRIDDED DATA. CLDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING AGAIN OVRNITE. SCT SW– AFT 00Z AS S/W APPCHS FROM WEST…SEEMS TO BE RIGHT OUT AHD OF NOSE OF S/W. THEN FOR SAT… SFC TROF SETS UP ON WEST SIDE OF APALACHIANS…WAITING FOR STRONG VORT TO SWING AROUND BASE OF 500 TROF. AFT COORD W/ CLE WILL FOLLOW ETA…WHICH BRINGS MOIST AND RAIN BIT FARTHER NORTH. SFC LO FAR SOUTH…WITH 500 /700 LO TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR REGION. RH FIELD SHWS NRN EDGE OF 90% MVNG OVR NRN KY/SRN OH ON DURING THE DAY SAT. MOIST HOLDS THRU SUN W/ 700/850 LO/S TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION. ETA QPF SHWG ABT .10 TO .25 INCH ACROSS SRN PART OF REGION…AFT COORD W/ CLE/IND/SDF ALL THINKING ABT SAME. NRN KY 4-5″ TOTAL THRU SUN…SRN OH 2-4″ AND 2-3″ SE INDIANA. FROM DAY TO CMH NORTH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. IND HAS SNOW ENDING LATE SAT NITE…W/ ENZDING SPREADING EAST ON SUNDAY.
As the highlighted section shows, the Wilmington office was thinking 1″ or less for the I-70 corridor and points north, including Columbus, with only 2″-4″ in far Southern Ohio. The first weather advisories for the storm went up at 5:20AM on Saturday, January 6th. For Ohio, this only included a Winter Storm Watch for far Southeast and far South-Central parts of the state, where 4″-6″ were predicted. No advisories were issued for the Columbus area until 4:10PM on the 6th.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 410 PM EST SAT JAN 6 1996 …WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY… …SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY… TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH RANGE OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PORTSMOUTH AREA AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO COVINGTON AND DRY RIDGE. VERSAILLES…CINCINNATI…HILLSBORO AND CHILLICOTHE SHOULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS RICHMOND…DAYTON…LONDON AND COLUMBUS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO…SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT WHEN HEAVIER SNOW BEGINS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO BECAUSE OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
The Snow Advisory was only for 1″-3″ for Columbus even as the storm approached from the south. Later forecast updates at 5:55PM and 9:35PM on the 6th, and 12:35AM on the 7th still called for 1″-3″ for Columbus. Snowfall would begin in Columbus around 8PM on the 6th.
I have very vivid memories of seeing the afternoon and evening news on the 6th and being disappointed that the forecasts called for the storm to pass us well to the south and east. However, by the morning of the 7th, it was clear that the forecast had gone very wrong. Heavy snow and strong winds affected mainly the southern 2/3rds of the state, and the I-70 corridor was already reporting 3″-5″ by 6AM. By 11AM, Columbus had 4″-7″. Curiously, Wilmington wouldn’t add the I-70 corridor to a Winter Storm Warning until that time, after more than half of the snow had already fallen.
Blizzard conditions, however, raged across central, west-central and northwestern sections of the state, where winds gusted over 55mph in places. Blowing and drifting snowfall piled drifts several feet deep, and travel across the state was made impassible, particularly on country roads. For many, this was one of the greatest January snowstorms ever, and in some cases, the worst storm since the Great Blizzard of 1978. 8-10″ was common in the southern 2/3rds of the state, but there was as much as 15″ in parts of the Ohio River communities, as well as areas in west-central Ohio.
So why had the forecast gone so wrong? The weak low pressure that was supposed to die off as the larger system wound up along the East Coast did not die out as expected. Instead, it moved into the lower Ohio Valley and essentially stalled as it slowly spun itself down. This low helped suck moisture over the mountains and into Ohio. Temperatures were cold enough for this moisture to fall as all snow, and a tight gradient brought with it strong winds. The result was a paralyzing winter storm and one of the all-time forecast busts.
