Election 2016

I’m not going to get into any debate on the candidates themselves or what I personally thought/think of them. That’s not the point of this post, and frankly, there’s already plenty of opinions all over the internet on this.

First, here is a map of total Democratic votes within Ohio’s counties.

As is typical, Democratic votes were most concentrated in counties with large cities.

Here are the metro areas that provided the most Democratic votes.
1. Cleveland: 561,368
2. Columbus: 450,146
3. Cincinnati: 339,159
4. Akron: 166,653
5. Dayton: 164,079
6. Toledo: 152,505
7. Youngstown: 100,395

And the top 10 counties with the most Democratic votes.
1. Cuyahoga: 398,271
2. Franklin: 351,198
3. Hamilton: 215,719
4. Summit: 134,256
5. Montgomery: 122,016
6. Lucas: 110,833
7. Stark: 68,146
8. Lorain: 66,949
9. Butler: 58,642
10. Mahoning: 57,381

Here is how Democratic votes changed by county between 2012 and 2016.

As you can see, only a handful of counties saw Democratic votes increase in 2016 over 2012, Franklin County being one of them. Some of the biggest losses were in traditionally blue areas like Northeast Ohio.

And the map for total Republican votes.

Republican votes by metro area.
1. Cincinnati: 440,375
2. Columbus: 429,930
3. Cleveland: 400,321
4. Dayton: 210,807
5. Akron: 151,997
6. Toledo: 134,558
7. Youngstown: 102,640

Top 10 counties for Republican votes.
1. Franklin: 199,331
2. Cuyahoga: 184,211
3. Hamilton: 173,665
4. Montgomery: 123,909
5. Summit: 112,026
6. Butler: 106,976
7. Stark: 98,388
8. Warren: 77,643
9. Lucas: 75,698
10. Clermont: 67,518

And here is the change of Republican votes in 2016 vs. 2012.

Most of Ohio’s counties saw increased Republican turnout, though again, Franklin County bucked the trend and actually saw declines.

Finally, a map of the net % change for each county and whether it trended more Republican or more Democratic vs. the net of the 2012 election.

Almost all counties saw a net decrease of Democratic votes/increase in Republican votes. Only 3 counties of 88- Franklin, Delaware and Hamilton- trended more Democratic in 2016 over 2012. All the other 85 trended Republican.

An Examination of Franklin County Voting History

**Added data for the 2016 election.

With the presidential election just a few months ago, I thought it might be interesting to look at how Franklin County has voted over time. I went back to the presidential election of 1976 as that is the earliest I could find individual county totals.

First, let’s look at the total number of votes that were for the Democratic candidates vs the total number of votes for the Republican candidate.

As the graph above shows, the number of Democratic votes has gradually been rising, and first surpassed Republican votes in the 1996 election. Meanwhile, Republican votes have more or less held steady, seeing no appreciable gains or declines over the course of the period of record.

What about votes as a %? For this, I was able to go back a bit further in the records.

This graph shows a very similar story, only a bit more stark, with Republicans clearly losing its share of the vote over the period with Democrats gaining.

Not only are the voting habits of the county changing, but Franklin County’s share of the statewide vote is also growing. In the graph below, Franklin County is compared to Cincinnati’s Hamilton County and Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County showing the % share of total statewide votes for each. Franklin County’s has been steadily rising over time, while both other counties have lost some share over the period.

And it is also becoming a bigger player in the statewide % of Democratic votes.

If these trends continue, Columbus’ Franklin County may end up passing Cuyahoga County not only as the most “Blue” county in the state, but the most influential county as well.