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Suburban vs. Urban Growth in US Metros

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Now that we have the full set of 2017 population estimates, I wanted to examine a popular claim a little more closely. The claim is that suburban growth far exceeds that of core cities/counties, and it’s often repeated in media throughout the country. One of the things that always bothered me about this was the constant use of basing this claim largely on % change. This has a major flaw, one that I will go into more below.

For this little study, I will look at the top 50 largest metro areas.

First, let’s look at the total change in the whole metro area, the core county and the core city between the 2010 Census and July 1, 2017. They will be ranked here by total metro change.
1. Dallas, TX: +973,431
2. Houston, TX: +971,941
3. New York, NY: +754,396
4. Atlanta, GA: +597,993
5. Miami, FL: +592,525
6. Washington, DC: +580,228
7. Phoenix, AZ: +544,141
8. Los Angeles, CA: +524,946
9. Seattle, WA: +427,240
10. Austin, TX: +399,507
11. San Francisco, Ca: +391,784
12. Orlando, FL: +375,432
13. Riverside, CA: +355,705
14. Denver, CO: +344,635
15. San Antonio, TX: +331,458
16. Charlotte, NC: +308,313
17. Tampa, FL: +307,930
18. Boston, MA: +283,935
19. Las Vegas, NV: +252,810
20. Minneapolis, MN: +251,760
21. San Diego, CA: +242,343
22. Nashville, TN: +232,162
23. Portland, OR: +227,167
24. Raleigh, NC: +204,590
25. Columbus: +176,724
26. Sacramento, CA: +175,740
27. San Jose, CA: +161,523
28. Jacksonville, FL: +159,382
29. Indianapolis, IN: +140,524
30. Oklahoma City, OK: +130,746
31. Philadelphia, PA: +130,427
32. Kansas City, MO: +119,574
33. Salt Lake City, UT: +115,297
34. Baltimore, MD: +97,572
35. Richmond, VA: +86,117
36. New Orleans, LA: +85,903
37. Chicago: +71,499
38. Cincinnati: +64,396
39. Louisville, KY: +58,247
40. Virginia Beach, VA: +48,429
41. Memphis, TN: +23,433
42. Birmingham, AL: +21,751
43. Milwaukee, WI: +20,282
44. Providence, RI: +19,912
45. St. Louis, MO: +19,575
46. Detroit: +16,685
47. Buffalo, NY: +1,239
48. Hartford, CT: -2,139
49. Cleveland: -18,427
50. Pittsburgh, PA: -22,924

Now that we have the total growth, let’s break it down a bit more.

How much of the total metro change occurred in the core county of each metro? This will be ranked by the highest to lowest % occurring in the core county.

Core County Change—————-Core County % of Total Metro
1. Las Vegas: +252,810———————-100.00%
2. San Diego: +242,343———————-100.00%
3. San Jose: +161,523**———————100.00%
4. Buffalo: +6,488——————————100.00%
5. Salt Lake City: +105,994——————91.93%
6. Phoenix: +489,916————————–90.03%
7. Raleigh: +171,210————————–83.68%
8. San Antonio: +243,805——————–73.56%
9. Columbus: +128,567———————–72.75%
10. Los Angeles: +344,902——————65.70%
11. Sacramento: +111,827——————63.63%
12. Seattle: +257,400————————-60.25%
13. New York: +447,565*——————–59.33%
14. Tampa: +179,340————————-58.24%
15. Houston: +560,521———————–57.67%
16. New Orleans: +49,463——————-57.58%
17. Jacksonville: +88,902——————–55.78%
18. Riverside: +198,100———————-55.69%
19. Providence: +10,870———————54.59%
20. Orlando: +203,019————————54.08%
21. Oklahoma City: +69,325—————-53.02%
22. Louisville: +30,052———————–51.59%
23. Charlotte: +157,209———————50.99%
24. Austin: +202,432————————-50.67%
25. Miami: +255,361————————-43.10%
26. Memphis: +9,317————————39.76%
27. Minneapolis: +99,599——————-39.56%
28. Indianapolis: +46,689——————33.22%
29. Philadelphia: +41,866——————32.10%
30. Portland: +72,221———————–31.79%
31. Denver: +104,463**———————30.31%
32. Nashville: +64,663———————-27.85%
33. Boston: +75,916————————-26.74%
34. Richmond: +22,818**——————26.50%
35. Virginia Beach: +12,441**————25.69%
36. Dallas: +250,009————————25.68%
37. Chicago: +16,588———————–23.20%
38. Milwaukee: +4,350———————21.45%
39. Kansas City: +24,737—————–20.69%
40. Atlanta: +120,843———————-20.21%
41. San Francisco: +79,128**————20.20%
42. Cincinnati: +11,448——————–17.78%
43. Washington, DC: +92,249**———15.90%
44. Birmingham: +731———————-3.36%
45. Hartford: +1,374————————-0.0%
46. Baltimore: -9,313**———————-0.0%
47. St. Louis: -10,668**———————0.0%
48. Detroit: -66,968————————–0.0%
49. Pittsburgh: -300———————– -1.31%
50. Cleveland: -31,608——————- -100.00%

*New York includes all 5 main boroughs, so it is different than core county, but still represents the urban center of the metro area.
**Core County and City are consolidated, or city exists as separate entity.

Going down even further, let’s compare the core city to the total metro, again ranked by %.

Core City Change————————Core City % of Total Metro
1. New York: +447,565————————-59.33%
2. New Orleans: +49,463———————–57.58%
3. San Antonio: +184,539———————-55.67%
4. San Jose: +89,375—————————55.33%
5. Columbus: +92,137————————–52.14%
6. Oklahoma City: +63,649——————–48.68%
7. San Diego: +112,114————————46.26%
8. Jacksonville: +70,278———————–44.09%
9. Philadelphia: +54,857———————–42.06%
10. Charlotte: +127,611————————41.39%
11. Louisville: +24,012————————-41.22%
12. Austin: +160,325—————————40.13%
13. Los Angeles: +207,138——————-39.46%
14. Las Vegas: +64,468———————–36.68%
15. Phoenix: +180,446————————-33.16%
16. Raleigh: +65,098—————————31.82%
17. Denver: +104,463————————–30.31%
18. Indianapolis: +42,557———————30.28%
19. Chicago: +20,852————————–29.16%
20. Portland: +64,029————————–28.19%
21. Nashville: +64,562————————-27.81%
22. Seattle: +116,085————————–27.17%
23. Richmond: +22,818**———————26.50%
24. Virginia Beach: +12,441**—————25.69%
25. Kansas City: +29,156———————24.38%
26. Boston: +67,500—————————23.77%
27. Memphis: +5,347————————–22.82%
28. Houston: +212,454————————21.86%
29. San Francisco**: +79,128—————20.20%
30. Sacramento: +35,413———————20.15%
31. Minneapolis: +41,412———————16.45%
32. Tampa: +49,721—————————-16.15%
33. Washington, DC: +92,249**————-15.90%
34. Dallas: +143,259—————————14.72%
35. Salt Lake City: +14,104——————-12.23%
36. Providence: +2,351————————11.81%
37. Orlando: +41,957—————————11.18%
38. Atlanta: +66,287—————————-11.08%
39. Miami: +54,122——————————9.13%
40. Cincinnati: +4,356————————–6.76%
41. Riverside: +23,857————————-6.71%
42. Milwaukee: +518—————————2.55%
43. Birmingham: -1,527———————–0.0%
44. Buffalo: -5,218——————————0.0%
45. Baltimore: -9,313**————————0.0%
46. St. Louis: -10,668**———————–0.0%
47. Detroit: -40,673—————————-0.0%
48. Pittsburgh: -3,297———————– -14.38%
49. Cleveland: -10,889——————— -59.09%
50. Hartford: -1,375————————- -64.28%

*Again, I used the 5 boroughs of New York here, so the numbers don’t change.
**See above.

Finally, because core counties and cities can be absolutely huge, like in Phoenix, I wanted to take see the ratio of people moving vs. the area size. To do this, I divided the growth by the land area of each core county and city.

So basically, how many people moved there per each square mile.

Core County Ratio——————————-Core City Ratio
1. San Francisco: 1,687.52————————-1,687.52
2. Washington, DC: 1,511.04———————-1,511.04
3. New York: 1,475.51——————————-1,475.51
4. Boston: 1,308.90———————————–1,394.05
5. Denver: 681.30————————————–681.30
6. Richmond: 379.67———————————-379.67
7. Houston: 329.14————————————354.33
8. Philadelphia: 312.43——————————-408.83
9. Charlotte: 300.02———————————–428.66
10. New Orleans: 291.95—————————-291.95
11. Dallas: 286.38————————————-420.73
12. Columbus: 241.67——————————-424.26
13. Atlanta: 229.30———————————–497.65
14. Orlando: 224.83———————————-398.75
15. Raleigh: 205.04———————————-455.87
16. Austin: 204.48————————————538.18
17. San Antonio: 196.62—————————-400.36
18. Minneapolis: 179.78—————————–754.32
19. Tampa: 175.82————————————438.38
20. Portland: 167.57———————————-481.42
21. Salt Lake City: 142.85—————————129.28
22. Miami: 134.54————————————-1,503.81
23. Nashville: 128.30———————————128.01
24. San Jose: 125.21———————————503.49
25. Seattle: 121.64————————————1,384.11
26. Indianapolis: 117.81——————————117.72
27. Jacksonville: 116.67——————————94.02
28. Sacramento: 115.88——————————361.65
29. Oklahoma City: 97.78—————————-105.89
30. Los Angeles: 84.99——————————-441.90
31. Louisville: 79.08———————————–63.11
32. San Diego: 57.84———————————344.76
33. Phoenix: 53.25————————————348.59
34. Virginia Beach: 49.96—————————-49.96
35. Kansas City: 40.96——————————-92.57
36. Las Vegas: 32.04———————————474.73
37. Cincinnati: 28.20———————————-55.89
38. Riverside: 27.49———————————–293.70
39. Providence: 26.51——————————–127.08
40. Milwaukee: 18.05———————————5.39
41. Chicago: 17.5————————————–91.72
42. Memphis: 12.21———————————–16.97
43. Buffalo: 6.22————————————– -128.52
44. Harford: 1.87————————————- -79.02
45. Birmingham: 0.66——————————- -10.46
46. Pittsburgh: -0.41——————————— -59.53
47. Cleveland: -69.16——————————- -140.14
48. Detroit: -109.42———————————- -293.14
49. Baltimore: -115.12—————————— -115.12
50. St. Louis: -172.34——————————- -172.34

So what’s all this mean? Columbus performs particularly well here. Franklin County attracts a high percentage of the total metro population, and Columbus itself is one of only 5 cities with more than 50% of the metro growth entering the city limits. Even accounting for area size, Columbus does fairly well. This suggests that urban growth there is stronger than in most cities.



2015 City Population Estimates

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The latest city estimates came out today, so let’s take a look at them.

First of all, let’s look at the top 25 cities in Ohio on July 1, 2015, and the population change from July 1, 2014.
1. Columbus: 850,106 +12,175
2. Cleveland: 388,072 -1,788
3. Cincinnati: 298,550 +509
4. Toledo: 279,789 -803
5. Akron: 197,542 -557
6. Dayton: 140,599 -235
7. Parma: 79,937 -119
8. Canton: 71,885 -395
9. Youngstown: 64,628 -438
10. Lorain: 63,647 -104
11. Hamilton: 62,407 -44
12. Springfield: 59,680 -246
13. Kettering: 55,525 -117
14. Elyria: 53,775 -179
15. Lakewood: 50,656 -297
16. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,146 -123
17. Middletown: 48,760 -6
18. Newark: 47,986 +140
19. Euclid: 47,676 -242
20. Mentor: 46,901 +35
21. Mansfield: 46,830 -5
22. Beavercreek: 46,227 +217
23. Dublin: 45,098 +794
24. Cleveland Heights: 44,962 -243
25. Strongsville: 44,668 -9

Only a handful of the top 25 saw growth.

Now let’s look at the Columbus metro overall, and the change since July 1, 2014.
1. Columbus: 850,106
2. Newark (Licking): 47,986
3. Dublin: 45,098
4. Lancaster (Fairfield): 39,766
5. Grove City: 39,388
6. Westerville: 38,384
7. Delaware (Delaware): 37,995
8. Reynoldsburg: 37,158
9. Upper Arlington: 34,907
10. Gahanna: 34,590
11. Hilliard: 33,649
12. Marysville (Union): 22,817
13. Pickerington (Fairfield): 19,745
14. Whitehall: 18,694
15. Pataskala (Licking): 15,245
16. Worthington: 14,498
17. Bexley: 13,654
18. Circleville (Pickaway): 13,857
19. Powell (Delaware): 12,927
20. Heath (Licking): 10,489
21. London (Madison): 10,060
22. New Albany: 9,879
23. Canal Winchester: 7,818
24. Grandview Heights: 7,328
25. Logan (Hocking): 7,117
26. Granville (Licking): 5,747
27. Groveport: 5,737
28. Sunbury (Delaware): 5,097
29. Johnstown (Licking): 4,918
30. Obetz: 4,761
31. New Lexington (Perry): 4,727
32. Plain City (Madison): 4,302
33. West Jefferson (Madison): 4,279
34. Ashville (Pickaway): 4,190
35. Mount Gilead (Morrow): 3,653
36. Baltimore (Fairfield): 2,970
37. Buckeye Lake (Licking): 2,760
38. Crooksville (Perry): 2,498
39. Hebron (Licking): 2,409
40. Richwood (Union): 2,281
41. Utica (Licking): 2,196
42. Cardington (Morrow): 2,047
43. South Bloomfield (Pickaway): 1,851
44. Mount Sterling (Madison): 1,745
45. Commercial Point (Pickaway): 1,611
46. Somerset (Perry): 1,464
47. Bremen (Fairfield): 1,437
48. Ashley (Delaware): 1,361
49. Lithopolis (Fairfield) 1,351
50. Minerva Park: 1,318
51. Hanover (Licking): 1,131
52. Williamsport (Pickaway): 1,051
53. Millersport (Fairfield): 1,049
54. Urbancrest: 1,033
55. Thornville (Perry): 997
56. Pleasantville (Fairfield): 958
57. New Holland (Pickaway): 836
58. Milford Center (Union): 823
59. Junction City (Perry): 810
60. Amanda (Fairfield): 747
61. Shawnee Hills (Delaware): 735
62. New Straitsville (Perry): 715
63. Ostrander (Delaware): 688
64. Galena (Delaware): 684
65. Shawnee (Perry): 646
66. Valleyview: 636
67. Thurston (Fairfield): 610
68. Marble Cliff: 584
69. Corning (Perry): 573
70. Riverlea: 569
71. Stoutsville (Fairfield): 566
72. Kirkersville (Licking): 541
73. Carroll (Fairfield): 520
74. Laurelville (Hocking): 517
75. Alexandria (Licking): 523
76. Murray City (Hocking): 435
77. Edison (Morrow): 435
78. Sugar Grove (Fairfield): 431
79. Hartford (Licking): 402
80. St. Louisville (Licking): 376
81. South Solon (Madison): 361
82. Marengo (Morrow): 346
83. Harrisburg: 334
84. Midway (Madison): 327
85. Rushville (Fairfield): 305
86. Tarlton (Pickaway): 290
87. Orient (Pickaway): 275
88. Magnetic Springs (Union): 276
89. Fulton (Morrow): 261
90. Lockbourne: 247
91. Unionville Center (Union): 239
92. Chesterville (Morrow): 230
93. Darbyville (Pickaway): 229
94. Gratiot (Licking): 224
95. Glenford (Perry): 177
96. Sparta (Morrow): 163
97. Hemlock (Perry): 156
98. West Rushville (Fairfield): 135
99. Brice: 120
100. Rendville (Perry): 36

Finally, let’s take a look at population growth ranking between Census 2010 and July 1, 2015.
1. Columbus: +63,073
2. Hilliard: +5,214
3. Grove City: +3,813
4. Dublin: +3,347
5. Delaware: +3,242
6. Westeville: +2,264
7. New Albany: +2,155
8. Powell: +1,472
9. Pickerington: +1,454
10. Gahanna: +1,342
11. Reynoldsburg: +1,265
12. Upper Arlington: +1,136
13. Lancaster: +986
14. Worthington: +923
15 Grandview Heights: +792
16. Marysville: +723
17. Canal Winchester: +717
18. Sunbury: +708
19. Whitehall: +632
20. Bexley: +597
21. Circleville: +543
22. Newark: +413
23. Groveport: +374
24. Johnstown: +286
25. Pataskala: +283
26. Lithopolis: +245
27. Obetz: +229
28. Hanover: +210
29. Heath: +179
30. London: +156
31. South Bloomfield: +107
32. Granville: +101
33. Ashville: +93
34. Plain City: +77
35. Urbancrest: +73
36. Hebron: +73
37. Utica: +64
38. West Jefferson: +57
39. Shawnee Hills: +54
40. Richwood: +52
41. Minverva Park: +46
42. Galena: +45
43. Ostrander: +45
44. New Holland: +35
45. Milford Center: +31
46. Ashley: +31
47. Commercial Point: +29
48. Williamsport: +28
49. Riverlea: +24
50. Kirkersville: +16
51. Valleyview: +16
52. Buckeye Lake: +14
53. Harrisburg: +14
54. Bremen: +12
55. Marble Cliff: +11
56. Amanda: +10
57. Lockbourne: +10
58. Tarlton: +8
59. Magnetic Springs: +8
60. Darbyville: +7
61. Brice: +7
62. Thurston: +6
63. Alexandria: +6
64. Stoutsville: +6
65. Unionville Center: +6
66. Thornville: +6
67. Millersport: +5
68. Orient: +5
69. Sugar Grove: +5
70. Hartford: +5
71. South Solon: +5
72. Somerset: +5
73. Midway: +5
74. Marengo: +4
75. Baltimore: +4
76. Glenford: +4
77. Fulton: +3
78. Gratiot: +3
79. St. Louisville: +3
80. Rushville: +3
81. Chesterville: +2
82. Sparta: +2
83. West Rushville: +1
84. Hemlock: +1
85. Cardington: 0
86. Rendville: 0
87. Pleasantville: -2
88. Edison: -2
89. Carroll: -4
90. New Lexington: -4
91. Mount Gilead: -7
92. New Straitsville: -7
93. Junction City: -9
94. Shawnee: -9
95. Corning: -10
96. Laurelville: -10
97. Murray City: -14
98. Logan: -35
99. Mount Sterling: -37
100. Crooksville: -37

So 86 of the metro’s 100 places have either grown or held steady in population since 2010. That is an increase from 70 places during the 2000s.