With temperatures predicted to fall to near freezing for the first time this week for the fall season, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the incidence of early season cold, and the average on when it tends to arrive.
Here are the earliest dates on record for the following:
Average Date of First Under-40 Temp By Decade (1878-2014) 2010s: October 11th 2000s: October 8th 1990s: October 2nd 1980s: September 30th 1970s: October 1st 1960s: September 25th 1950s: September 25th 1940s: September 30th 1930s: October 11th 1920s: October 2nd 1910s: October 9th 1900s: October 5th 1890s: October 1st 1880s: October 2nd 1870s: October 1st
Average Date of First 32 or Below High By Decade 2010s: December 4th 2000s: December 2nd 1990s: December 7th 1980s: November 28th 1970s: November 29th 1960s: November 23rd 1950s: November 26th 1940s: December 2nd 1930s: November 27th 1920s: November 28th 1910s: November 22nd 1900s: November 30th 1890s: November 25th 1880s: November 30th 1870s: December 4th
Average Date of First 32 or Below Low By Decade 2010s: October 24th 2000s: October 26th 1990s: October 22nd 1980s: October 17th 1970s: October 17th 1960s: October 8th 1950s: October 22nd 1940s: November 3rd 1930s: October 24th 1920s: October 28th 1910s: October 31st 1900s: October 24th 1890s: October 20th 1880s: October 20th 1870s: October 26th
As summer slowly approaches its inevitable end, thoughts of winter have started to creep into our minds. The last two winters seemed particularly harsh, and questions were often asked as to their historic status as well as whether another bad winter was on the way. Ask any older person in Ohio, and the winters between 1976 and 1979 will often come up. But do they really deserve their reputations? To find out, I came up with a ranking system for meteorological winter only- December through February0- to rank the worst winters of all time. Here was the criteria:
Temperature: # of 32 or Below Highs, # of 32 or Below Lows, # of 0 or Below Highs, # of 0 or Below Lows: Each earned the winter a point for each day that featured these conditions. # of 60 or Above Highs and # of 50 or Above Lows meant a point was removed for each occurrence.
Precipitation: # of Days with Measurable Snowfall, # of 1″+ Snow Days, # of 2.5″+ Snow Days, # of 5″+ Snow Days, # of 10″+ Snow Days as well as # of Measurable Precipitation Days all counted as 1 point for each occurrence.
I then added the temperature and precipitation points together to come up with a ranking for how miserable each winter really was.
Do any of these surprise you? Both 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 are in the top 30 worst, but only 2013-2014 is in the top 10. In fact, other recent winters like 2000-2001, 2002-2003, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 are all ranked worse than last winter. There have been a surprising number of recent winters in the top 30, however. There have been 8 total since 2000. No other similar time frame has produced as many.
Look how many of the warmest/least snowy occur between 1920 and 1945. Historically, this period had the fewest number of cold and/or snowy winters on record of any such 25-year period.
And what about winter 2015-2016? Well, that remains to be seen. However, the developing strong El Nino suggests a warmer than average winter. However, factors such as its position (west or east-based) as well as the PDO could throw some wrenches into that standard El Nino forecast. Either way, it will likely not be a top 30 worst.
The mid-November 2014 cold wave that kickstarted a historic winter.
The Winter 2014-2015 Review details the historic season, with its bouts of extreme cold and heavy snowfall occurring in all months except December.
Temperature and snowfall ranking data goes back to the winter of 1878-1879. Snow depth ranking data goes back to 1940.
December-February Only Average High: 34.8 19th Coldest Average Low: 19.3 14th Coldest Mean: 27.1 15th Coldest Precipitation: 7.27″ 57th Driest Snowfall: 23.9″ 33rd Snowiest Average Daily Snow Depth: 0.9″ 15th Highest Largest Snowstorm: 6.8″ on February 21st 32 or Below Highs: 36 14th Most 32 or Below Lows: 76 13th Most Measurable Precipitation Days: 36 12th Fewest Measurable Snowfall Days: 15 11th Fewest Deepest Snow Depth: 6″ on February 21st Days with 1″+ Snow Depth: 30 16th Most
Entire Cold Season: October-April Average High: 46.6 14th Coldest Average Low: 29.4 14th Coldest Mean: 38.0 14th Coldest Precipitation: 19.51″ 67th Wettest Snowfall: 33.4″ 28th Snowiest Average Snow Depth: 0.6″ 7th Lowest Largest Snowstorm: 6.8″ on February 21st 32 or Below Highs: 43 12th Most 32 or Below Lows: 116 17th Most Measurable Precipitation Days: 89 16th Most Measurable Snowfall Days: 22 13th Fewest Deepest Snow Depth: 6″ on February 21st Days with 1″+ Snow Depth: 45 8th Most
Average High By Month October 2014: 63.4 32nd Coldest November 2014: 45.7 9th Coldest December 2014: 42.1 33rd Warmest January 2015: 33.8 32nd Coldest February 2015: 28.6 5th Coldest March 2015: 47.6 37th Coldest April 2015: 63.5 34th Warmest
Average Low By Month October 2014: 45.4 37th Warmest November 2014: 30.0 6th Coldest December 2014: 29.9 19th Warmest January 2015: 18.1 33rd Coldest February 2015: 10.0 3rd Coldest March 2015: 28.1 22nd Coldest April 2015: 42.9 28th Warmest
Mean By Month October 2014: 54.4 35th Coldest November 2014: 37.9 7th Coldest December 2014: 36.0 27th Warmest January 2015: 26.0 31st Coldest February 2015: 19.3 2nd Coldest March 2015: 37.9 33rd Coldest April 2015: 53.2 28th Warmest
Precipitation By Month October 2014: 2.77″ 42nd Wettest November 2014: 1.46″ 22nd Driest December 2014: 2.70″ 63rd Driest January 2015: 2.87″ 51st Wettest February 2015: 1.70″ 45th Driest March 2015: 3.92″ 45th Wettest April 2015: 4.09″ 37th Wettest
Snowfall By Month October 2014: Trace 2nd Least Snowy November 2014: 4.1″ 15th Snowiest December 2014: Trace 2nd Least Snowy January 2015: 8.4″ 48th Snowiest February 2015: 15.5″ 8th Snowiest March 2015: 5.4″ 23rd Snowiest April 2015: 0.0″ 1st Least Snowy
Average Snow Depth By Month October 2014: 0″ November 2014: 0.4″ December 2014: 0″ January 2015: 0.8″ February 2015: 3.3″ March 2015: 1.1″ April 2015: 0″
Maximum High By Month October 2014: 86 on the 2nd November 2014: 69 on the 11th December 2014: 61 on the 1st January 2015: 59 on the 3rd February 2015: 56 on the 8th March 2015: 69 on the 16th April 2015: 79 on the 13th and 18th
Minimum High By Month October 2014: 49 on the 31st November 2014: 19 on the 18th December 2014: 26 on the 31st January 2015: 13 on the 7th February 2015: 8 on the 15th and 19th March 2015: 23 on the 5th and 6th April 2015: 50 on the 23rd
Minimum High Records -The 33 on November 14th was a record for the day, beating the old record of 34 set in 1900, 1908, 1911 and 1916. -The 19 on November 18th tied the record for the day set in 1904. -The 8 on February 15th was a record for the day, beating the old record of 12 set in 1920. -The 10 on February 16th was a record for the day, beating the old record of -The 8 on February 19th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 10 set in 1885. -The 18 on February 27th tied the record for the date set in 1888 and 1934. -The 25 on February 28th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 26 set in 1986.
Maximum Low By Month October 2014: 58 on the 13th and 14th November 2014: 47 on the 4th December 2014: 44 on the 23rd January 2015: 34 on the 18th and 21st February 2015: 41 on the 8th March 2015: 43 on the 16th April 2015: 57 on the 19th
Maximum Low Records -The 54 on November 30th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 53 set in 1998 and 2006.
Minimum Low By Month October 2014: 38 on the 4th, 26th and 31st November 2014: 12 on the 18th December 2014: 15 on the 15th January 2015: -6 on the 8th February 2015: -11 on the 24th March 2015: 4 on the 6th April 2015: 28 on the 24th
Minimum Low Records -The -11 on February 24th was a record for the date, beating the old record of -1 set in 1914. -The 0 on February 28th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 2 set in 1934. -The 28 on April 24th tied the record for the date set in 1930.
Highest Daily Precipitation By Month October 2014: 0.57″ on the 6th November 2014: 0.39″ on the 17th December 2014: 0.82″ on the 6th January 2015: 1.46″ on the 3rd February 2015: 0.55″ on the 1st March 2015: 0.63″ on the 14th April 2015: 0.66″ on the 2nd
Highest Daily Snowfall By Month October 2014: Trace on the 4th November 2014: 3.8″ on the 17th December 2014: Trace on the 10th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th and 31st January 2015: 3.7″ on the 6th February 2015: 6.8″ on the 21st March 2015: 3.6″ on the 1st April 2015: 0.0″
Snowfall Records -The 6.8″ on February 21st was a record for the day, beating the old record of 5.8″ set in 1893. -The 3.6″ on March 1st was a record for the date, beating the old record of 3.5″ set in 1954.
Deepest Snow Depth By Month October 2014: 0″ November 2014: 3″ on the 18th and 19th December 2014: 0″ January 2015: 3″ on the 6th, 7th and 9th February 2015: 6″ on the 21st March 2015: 6″ on the 1st and 2nd April 2015: 0″
After a generally cold December, the January 1879 arctic outbreak would begin the new year, leading to Columbus’ 2nd coldest temperature ever officially recorded. The outbreak began on January 2nd, when a strong cold front moved in from the northwest in the early afternoon hours. The temperature fell rapidly during the evening, reaching a low of -13 on the 2nd for a total drop that day of 42 degrees. The core of the cold air moved across Ohio during the day of the 3rd, so temperatures warmed very little. Highs across the state were in the single digits south to below zero across the norther 2/3rds. Columbus had a rare below zero high of -4, which is the 2nd coldest January high on record and the 3rd coldest high of any month. The low on the 3rd was a frigid -20. This low stood as the coldest temperature in Columbus for 115 years, only being surpassed during the great arctic outbreak of January 1994, during which the temperature fell to -22.
The strong front was very moisture starved, and only a few tenths to an inch to an inch of snow fell with its passage.
Temperatures remained in the single digits for two more days before a gradual warming commenced. By the 8th temperatures went above freezing. The rest of January 1879 was fairly tame. 16 days after the 8th had highs of 35 or greater.
Of note is that the temperature of -20 occurred two more times before the end of the 19th century, in January 1884 and February 1899.
The first two weeks of January 1996 proved to be a very wintry period, culminating in the severe Blizzard of 1996. Although this storm was made famous for its effects on the Eastern Seaboard, it also had a significant impact on areas to the west of the Appalachians, and was one of the worst winter storms the state had seen in nearly 20 years.
This storm developed in the Gulf of Mexico on January 6th and moved up along the East Coast through the 7th. Forecasts for Ohio were not especially indicative of an impending major storm. A weak low pressure moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys was supposed to die out as the main storm on the Coast took over. Therefore, Ohio was not forecast to be hit especially hard from this storm, as the Area Forecast Discussion goes into on the after of January 5th. FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 243 PM EST FRI JAN 5 1996 AGAIN HVG TRBL GETTING GRIDDED DATA. CLDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING AGAIN OVRNITE. SCT SW– AFT 00Z AS S/W APPCHS FROM WEST…SEEMS TO BE RIGHT OUT AHD OF NOSE OF S/W. THEN FOR SAT… SFC TROF SETS UP ON WEST SIDE OF APALACHIANS…WAITING FOR STRONG VORT TO SWING AROUND BASE OF 500 TROF. AFT COORD W/ CLE WILL FOLLOW ETA…WHICH BRINGS MOIST AND RAIN BIT FARTHER NORTH. SFC LO FAR SOUTH…WITH 500 /700 LO TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR REGION. RH FIELD SHWS NRN EDGE OF 90% MVNG OVR NRN KY/SRN OH ON DURING THE DAY SAT. MOIST HOLDS THRU SUN W/ 700/850 LO/S TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION. ETA QPF SHWG ABT .10 TO .25 INCH ACROSS SRN PART OF REGION…AFT COORD W/ CLE/IND/SDF ALL THINKING ABT SAME. NRN KY 4-5″ TOTAL THRU SUN…SRN OH 2-4″ AND 2-3″ SE INDIANA. FROM DAY TO CMH NORTH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. IND HAS SNOW ENDING LATE SAT NITE…W/ ENZDING SPREADING EAST ON SUNDAY.
As the highlighted section shows, the Wilmington office was thinking 1″ or less for the I-70 corridor and points north, including Columbus, with only 2″-4″ in far Southern Ohio. The first weather advisories for the storm went up at 5:20AM on Saturday, January 6th. For Ohio, this only included a Winter Storm Watch for far Southeast and far South-Central parts of the state, where 4″-6″ were predicted. No advisories were issued for the Columbus area until 4:10PM on the 6th.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 410 PM EST SAT JAN 6 1996 …WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY… …SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA FOR TONIGHT AND FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY… TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH RANGE OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PORTSMOUTH AREA AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO COVINGTON AND DRY RIDGE. VERSAILLES…CINCINNATI…HILLSBORO AND CHILLICOTHE SHOULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION. ACROSS RICHMOND…DAYTON…LONDON AND COLUMBUS 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO…SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT WHEN HEAVIER SNOW BEGINS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO BECAUSE OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
The Snow Advisory was only for 1″-3″ for Columbus even as the storm approached from the south. Later forecast updates at 5:55PM and 9:35PM on the 6th, and 12:35AM on the 7th still called for 1″-3″ for Columbus. Snowfall would begin in Columbus around 8PM on the 6th.
I have very vivid memories of seeing the afternoon and evening news on the 6th and being disappointed that the forecasts called for the storm to pass us well to the south and east. However, by the morning of the 7th, it was clear that the forecast had gone very wrong. Heavy snow and strong winds affected mainly the southern 2/3rds of the state, and the I-70 corridor was already reporting 3″-5″ by 6AM. By 11AM, Columbus had 4″-7″. Curiously, Wilmington wouldn’t add the I-70 corridor to a Winter Storm Warning until that time, after more than half of the snow had already fallen.
Blizzard conditions, however, raged across central, west-central and northwestern sections of the state, where winds gusted over 55mph in places. Blowing and drifting snowfall piled drifts several feet deep, and travel across the state was made impassible, particularly on country roads. For many, this was one of the greatest January snowstorms ever, and in some cases, the worst storm since the Great Blizzard of 1978. 8-10″ was common in the southern 2/3rds of the state, but there was as much as 15″ in parts of the Ohio River communities, as well as areas in west-central Ohio.
So why had the forecast gone so wrong? The weak low pressure that was supposed to die off as the larger system wound up along the East Coast did not die out as expected. Instead, it moved into the lower Ohio Valley and essentially stalled as it slowly spun itself down. This low helped suck moisture over the mountains and into Ohio. Temperatures were cold enough for this moisture to fall as all snow, and a tight gradient brought with it strong winds. The result was a paralyzing winter storm and one of the all-time forecast busts.
