Does Fall Weather Correlate to Winter Severity?



winter severity

Republished with data through the 2019-2020 winter.

As we go into the winter season, it’s time to talk about how this one might end up. There’s a belief that fall weather is a good sign of how cold or warm winter will be. Let’s see if that holds true.

First, let’s just look at October temperatures.
The October normal mean temperature for Columbus is 55 degrees.

Between 1878 and 2019, there have been 47 Octobers that featured a mean temperature of 53.9 degrees or lower, what we’re considering a Cold October for the purposes of this comparison.
Of those 47 Octobers, 27 of the 47 had following winters that were colder than normal, or 57.4%, 13 had average temperature winters, or 27.7%, and the remaining 7 were warmer than normal, or 14.9%.
Interestingly, this category contains both the warmest winter on record- 1889-1890 and the coldest on record- 1976-1977- as shown by the chart below.

Next, we look at Normal Octobers, which are +/- 1 degree of the 1981-2010 Average of 55 degrees.
Between 1878 and 2019, there were 45 normal Octobers. Of those, 21 had colder than normal following winters, or 46.7%. 11 were followed by normal winters, or 24.4%, and 13 had warmer than normal winters, or 28.9%.

Finally, let’s look at warm Octobers, which are those with means of 56.1 degrees or higher. There were 49 Octobers with warmer than normal means since 1878. Of those, 18 featured following winters that were colder than normal, or 36.7%. Another 19, or 38.8%, were followed by average winters. The final 12 winters, or 24.5%, were warmer than normal. Here’s the graph.

So just based on the October mean temperature, Octobers that are colder than normal are almost twice as likely as normal Octobers and almost 4x as likely as warm Octobers to be followed by a cold winter. But what about Novembers? It is closer to winter itself, so does its weather matter even more?

Colder than normal Novembers- 43.3 degrees or lower- included 80 Novembers since 1878. Of those, 38 or 47.5% had colder than normal winters. 22 (27.5%) had normal winters and 19, or 23.8%, had warmer than normal winters.

With the 39 normal Novembers, 43.4 to 45.4 degrees, there were 18 that had colder than normal winters, or 46.2%, with 12 normal winters (30.8%) and 9 warmer than normal winters (23.1%).

Finally, there were 24 warmer than normal Novembers since 1878- 45.5 degrees or higher. Only 6, or 25%, were followed by cold winters. An additional 9 (37.5%) were normal, while the last 9 (37.5%) were warmer than normal.

To reiterate, here are the ranked percentages of cold winters by the preceding October or November.
1. Cold Octobers: 57.4%
2. Cold Novembers: 47.5%
3. Normal Octobers: 46.7%
4. Normal Novembers: 46.2%
5. Warm Octobers: 36.7%
6. Warm Novembers: 25.0%

It should be no surprise that cold Octobers and Novembers have a stronger correlation to the following winters also being colder, with colder winters becoming increasingly unlikely as those months warm. What is surprising is that October weather, across the board, was more predictive of cold winters than Novembers were.

Going further, though, what about bi-monthly combinations?

Rank of Bi-Monthly Combinations and the percentage of colder than normal following winters, along with total years in sample:
Normal October/Normal November: 87.5% 8 Years
Cold October/Warm November: 57.1% 7 Years
Cold October/Cold November: 53.8% 26 Years
Normal October/Cold November: 48.1% 27 Years
Warm October/Cold November: 40.7% 27 Years
Cold October/Normal November: 38.5% 13 Years
Warm October/Warm November: 28.6% 7 Years
Warm October/Normal November: 25.0% 16 Years
Normal October/Warm November: 0.0% 8 Years

So a normal fall is clearly the best, but the sample size is not particularly high. Normal to Warm is unanimously warm, but again, it has a small sample size.

So does fall weather ultimately have a correlation to winter severity? To some degree yes, as patterns established in the fall tend to appear in the winter as well, but October, rather than November, has a clear higher correlation. But as with everything, there are many other factors involved.

October 2020 looks to at least begin with below normal temperatures, but it remains to be seen how it ends up.

To see records for Columbus falls and winters going back to 1878, visit the following links.
Autumn Weather Records
Winter Season Records

And to see current local weather and forecasts, visit: Wilmington National Weather Service



Winter 2019-2020 Review



Winter 2019-2020 Review Columbus, Ohio

The Winter 2019-2020 Review has arrived! Aside some a few instances, winter was largely absent in Ohio for the 2019-2020 season. The season was bookended by periods of cold while the heart of winter was one of the warmest on record. Along with the warmth, precipitation was high throughout the season, but that didn’t translate into much snow.

Temperature and snowfall ranking data goes back to the winter of 1878-1879. Snow depth ranking data goes back to 1940.

December-February Only
Average High: 43.5 11th Warmest
Average Low: 28.3 9th Warmest
Mean: 35.9 10th Warmest
Precipitation: 9.69″ 29th Wettest
Snowfall: 8.3″ 16th Least Snowiest
Average Daily Snow Depth: 0.1″ 2nd Lowest
Largest Snowstorm: 2.2″ December 15th-16th
32 or Below Highs: 12 6th Fewest
32 or Below Lows: 65 13th Fewest
Measurable Precipitation Days: 34 10th Fewest
Measurable Snowfall Days: 13 9th Fewest
Deepest Snow Depth: 2″ on February 9th
Days with 1″+ Snow Depth: 5 3rd Fewest

Entire Cold Season- October-April
Average High: 51.9 10th Warmest
Average Low: 34.1 17th Warmest
Mean: 43.0 11th Warmest
Precipitation: 27.60″ 6th Wettest
Snowfall: 11.7″ 18th Least Snowiest
Average Snow Depth: 0.1″ 2nd Lowest
Largest Snowstorm: 2.8″ November 11th-12th
32 or Below Highs: 14 4th Fewest
32 or Below Lows: 98 17th Fewest
Measurable Precipitation Days: 87 18th Most
Measurable Snowfall Days: 16 7th Fewest
Deepest Snow Depth: 2″ on February 9th
Days with 1″+ Snow Depth: 8 5th Fewest

Average High By Month
October 2019: 69.8 13th Warmest
November 2019: 47.3 21st Coldest
December 2019: 45.9 12th Warmest
January 2020: 43.3 16th Warmest
February 2020: 41.2 35th Warmest
March 2020: 55.4 18th Warmest
April 2020: 59.6 21st Coldest

Average Low By Month
October 2019: 47.0 26th Warmest
November 2019: 30.3 9th Coldest
December 2019: 28.8 28th Warmest
January 2020: 30.1 8th Warmest
February 2020: 25.9 35th Warmest
March 2020: 37.6 13th Warmest
April 2020: 38.7 16th Coldest

Mean By Month
October 2019: 58.4 18th Warmest
November 2019: 38.8 12th Coldest
December 2019: 37.4 18th Warmest
January 2020: 36.7 13th Warmest
February 2020: 33.6 38th Warmest
March 2020: 46.5 13th Warmest
April 2020: 49.2 23rd Coldest

The 2019-2020 winter months were full of extremes, and most months ended up in either the top 20 coldest or warmest ever recorded.



Precipitation By Month
October 2019: 4.05″ 19th Wettest
November 2019: 1.48″ 24th Driest
December 2019: 2.76″ 62nd Wettest
January 2020: 4.37″ 25th Wettest
February 2020: 2.56″ 54th Wettest
March 2020: 8.16″ 2nd Wettest
April 2020: 4.22″ 32nd Wettest

Snowfall By Month
October 2019: Trace 2nd Least Snowiest
November 2019: 2.8″ 22nd Snowiest
December 2019: 2.3″ 23rd Least Snowiest
January 2020: 0.3″ 3rd Least Snowiest
February 2020: 5.7″ 47th Snowiest
March 2020: 0.6″ 5th Least Snowiest
April 2020: Trace 2nd Least Snowiest

As with temperature, precipitation and snowfall varied wildly as well, but generally most months were wetter than normal and less snowy than normal.

Average Snow Depth By Month
October 2019: 0.0″
November 2019: 0.2″
December 2019: 0.1″
January 2020: Trace
February 2020: 0.2″
March 2020: Trace
April 2020: 0.0″

Maximum High By Month
October: 94 on the 1st and 2nd
November: 59 on the 27th
December: 62 on the 27th
January: 71 on the 11th
February: 63 on the 3rd
March: 76 on the 28th
April: 77 on the 7th

Maximum High Records
-The 94 on October 1st was a record for the date, beating the old record of 89 set in 1952. This is also the warmest October temperature ever recorded, beating the old October record of 91 set in 2007.
-The 94 on October 2nd was a record for the date, beating the old record of 88 set in 1919. This also ties for the warmest October temperature ever, set on October 1st, 2019, the previous day.
-The 93 on October 3rd was a record for the date, beating the old record of 89 set in 1898 and 1953.
-The 71 on January 11th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 66 set in 1886 and 1890.
-The 63 on February 3rd tied the old record set in 1890.

Minimum High By Month
October: 55 on the 12th
November: 28 on the 12th and 13th
December: 29 on the 18th
January: 28 on the 20th
February: 24 on the 14th
March: 38 on the 21st
April: 45 on the 10th

Minimum High Records
-The 28 on the 12th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 30 set in 1920.

Maximum Low By Month
October: 68 on the 2nd
November: 39 on the 21st and 27th
December: 47 on the 9th and 29th
January: 53 on the 11th
February: 39 on the 25th
March: 55 on the 29th
April: 53 on the 8th

Maximum Low Records
-The 45 on January 10th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 43 set in 1960.

Minimum Low By Month
October: 35 on the 31st
November: 11 on the 13th
December: 13 on the 19th
January: 12 on the 20th
February: 13 on the 15th and 21st
March: 19 on the 1st
April: 26 on the 16th

Minimum Low Records
-The 15 on November 12th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 16 set in 1911.
-The 11 on November 13th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 14 set in 1911.

Highest Daily Precipitation By Month
October: 1.51″ on the 31st
November: 0.33″ on the 27th
December: 1.20″ on the 29th
January: 1.13″ on the 18th
February: 0.57″ on the 12th
March: 2.89″ on the 20th
April: 0.66″ on the 7th

Precipitation Records
-The 1.51″ on October 31st was a record for the date, beating the old record of 1.44″ set in 1932.
-The 1.20″ on December 29th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 1.13″ set in 1915.
-The 1.13″ on January 18th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 0.79″ set in 1927.
-The 1.31″ on March 4th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 0.74″ set in 1951.
-The 2.89″ that fell on March 20th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 1.60″ set in 1984.

Highest Daily Snowfall By Month
October: Trace on the 31st
November: 2.1″ on the 12th
December: 1.5″ on the 15th
January: 0.2″ on the 25th
February: 1.8″ on the 8th
March: 0.6″ on the 14th
April: Trace on the 15th and 17th

Snowfall Records
-The 2.1″ on November 11th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 0.5″ set in 1983.

Deepest Snow Depth By Month
October: 0″
November: 3″ on the 12th
December: 2″ on the 16th
January: Trace on the 19th and 20th
February: 2″ on the 29th
March: Trace on the 15th
April: 0″

For more winter records and local weather information, visit the following links.
Winter Season Records
Wilmington National Weather Service

Other Recent Winter Season Reviews
Winter 2018-2019
Winter 2017-2018
Winter 2016-2017