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Metro Population by Distance from Downtown

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Metro population by distance from downtown

One of the more interesting things the Census measures is the population from “City Hall”, or basically the metro population by distance from downtown. The metric measure population at every mile out from the center of each city’s downtown area. Since city boundaries come in all different sizes, this is a good way to compare urban populations.

I looked at the 15 largest Midwest metros for these numbers.

First, here is a breakdown of aggregate population at each mile marker in 2010. Aggregate means that with each mile added, the population within all previous miles are added together.

Mile 0
1. Chicago: 63,120
2. Minneapolis: 31,036
3. Milwaukee: 21,587
4. Cincinnati: 17,681
5. St. Louis: 17,359
6. Grand Rapids: 16,099
7. Omaha: 15,582
8. Indianapolis: 14,058
9. Kansas City: 13,709
10. Akron: 12,479
11. Cleveland: 9,471
12. Dayton: 9,182
13. Detroit: 8,709
14. Toledo: 8,304
15. Columbus: 7,416

This is a pretty bad showing in this list. In 2010, Columbus had the lowest downtown population, or population at Mile 0, of any of the largest 15 Midwest metros.

Mile 1
1. Chicago: 181,714
2. Minneapolis: 123,526
3. Milwaukee: 86,261
4. Grand Rapids: 75,613
5. Cincinnati: 65,264
6. Omaha: 56,244
7. Toledo: 55,739
8. Akron: 53,715
9. Columbus: 49,667
10. Indianapolis: 45,079
11. Dayton: 41,053
12. St. Louis: 40,184
13. Kansas City: 32,900
14. Detroit: 32,810
15. Cleveland: 32,193

By Mile 1, Columbus starts to move up rapidly, however.

Mile 2
1. Chicago: 318,522
2. Minneapolis: 228,927
3. Milwaukee: 208,776
4. Cincinnati: 138,235
5. Columbus: 134,826
6. Grand Rapids: 127,535
7. Akron: 122,395
8. Omaha: 113,044
9. Indianapolis: 102,412
10. Dayton: 101,817
11. Toledo: 94,058
12. St. Louis: 94,038
13. Kansas City: 77,388
14. Cleveland: 64,721
15. Detroit: 64,046

Mile 3
1. Chicago: 508,949
2. Minneapolis: 325,198
3. Milwaukee: 319,111
4. Columbus: 221,466
5. Cincinnati: 205,624
6. Grand Rapids: 184,887
7. Akron: 177,674
8. Omaha: 168,724
9. Toledo: 166,569
10. Indianapolis: 166,266
11. St. Louis: 160,117
12. Kansas City: 155,802
13. Dayton: 152,789
14. Cleveland: 139,945
15. Detroit: 109,104

Mile 4
1. Chicago: 764,400
2. Minneapolis: 448,499
3. Milwaukee: 438,629
4. Cincinnati: 315,665
5. Columbus: 314,557
6. Omaha: 253,723
7. St. Louis: 251,432
8. Grand Rapids: 247,473
9. Indianapolis: 240,970
10. Akron: 227,825
11. Cleveland: 227,309
12. Kansas City: 216,483
13. Dayton: 214,614
14. Toledo: 213,529
15. Detroit: 198,341

Mile 5
1. Chicago: 1,067,434
2. Minneapolis: 585,588
3. Milwaukee: 552,064
4. Columbus: 404,642
5. Cincinnati: 400,254
6. Cleveland: 361,475
7. St. Louis: 336,573
8. Indianapolis: 320,919
9. Omaha: 311,189
10. Grand Rapids: 305,307
11. Akron: 296,787
12. Detroit: 282,986
13. Toledo: 271,187
14. Kansas City: 269,936
15. Dayton: 262,069

So while Columbus’ downtown is down at the bottom in this list to start, it ends up being a top 5 within just a few miles. Clearly, though, the city needs to do better at getting people in the center.

What about further out? Let’s keep going.

Mile 10
1. Chicago: 2,763,025
2. Minneapolis: 1,312,640
3. Detroit: 1,053,920
4. Columbus: 993,957
5. Milwaukee: 944,415
6. Cleveland: 918,511
7. Indianapolis: 871,050
8. St. Louis: 864,336
9. Cincinnati: 862,932
10. Kansas City: 797,442
11. Omaha: 588,484
12. Dayton: 586,178
13. Akron: 502,710
14. Grand Rapids: 482,599
15. Toledo: 454,859

Mile 20
1. Chicago: 4,738,903
2. Detroit: 2,663,489
3. Minneapolis: 2,542,565
4. St. Louis: 1,878,365
5. Kansas City: 1,618,823
6. Cincinnati: 1,592,905
7. Cleveland: 1,549,799
8. Indianapolis: 1,511,675
9. Columbus: 1,432,067
10. Milwaukee: 1,317,062
11. Omaha: 788,498
12. Dayton: 757,623
13. Akron: 673,654
14. Grand Rapids: 602,220
15. Toledo: 558,219

Columbus seems to hold its own from Mile 2 through about Mile 15 or 16, and then begins to fall back as full metro populations begin to take shape.

So now we know the exact populations by distance, but what about how those are changing over time? Here are the same miles and their total change from 2000 to 2010.

Aggregate Change 2000-2010
By Mile 1
1. Chicago: 48,288
2. Minneapolis: 7,969
3. St. Louis: 5,881
4. Cleveland: 3,174
5. Milwaukee: 2,250
6. Kansas City: 1,009
7. Omaha: -53
8. Columbus: -1,049
9. Detroit: -3,601
10. Indianapolis: -4,739
11. Grand Rapids: -5,236
12. Cincinnati: -6,112
13. Akron: -8,916
14. Toledo: -10,118
15. Dayton: -10,165

By Mile 2
1. Chicago: 31,824
2. Minneapolis: 3,462
3. Omaha: 408
4. St. Louis: -1,523
5. Milwaukee: -2,399
6. Cleveland: -3,388
7. Kansas City: -4,807
8. Columbus: -6,004
9. Grand Rapids: -9,279
10. Detroit: -11,019
11. Indianapolis: -15,532
12. Cincinnati: -15,749
13. Akron: -15,874
14. Toledo: -16,771
15. Dayton: -20,826

By Mile 3
1. Chicago: 13,414
2. Minneapolis: 257
3. Omaha: -28
4. Milwaukee: -4,550
5. Columbus: -8,509
6. Grand Rapids: -8,818
7. St. Louis: -12,153
8. Kansas City: -14,528
9. Akron: -18,107
10. Toledo: -21,469
11. Cleveland: -23,287
12. Indianapolis: -23,973
13. Cincinnati: -24,548
14. Dayton: -27,652
15. Detroit: -29,905

By Mile 4
1. Minneapolis: 2,381
2. Omaha: 1,376
3. Milwaukee: -4,943
4. Grand Rapids: -8,612
5. Columbus: -9,650
6. Chicago: -12,130
7. Kansas City: -17,813
8. Akron: -18,533
9. Toledo: -22,039
10. St. Louis: -22,415
11. Indianapolis: -27,912
12. Dayton: -31,173
13. Cincinnati: -32,342
14. Cleveland: -41,948
15. Detroit: -61,209

By Mile 5
1. Omaha: 1,800
2. Minneapolis: 1,798
3. Milwaukee: -4,090
4. Columbus: -7,924
5. Grand Rapids: -8,112
6. Akron: -19,405
7. Kansas City: -21,986
8. Toledo: -26,094
9. Indianapolis: -28,401
10. Dayton: -33,066
11. St. Louis: 35,038
12. Cincinnati: -38,698
13. Chicago: -48,898
14. Cleveland: -70,067
15. Detroit: -89,973

By Mile 10
1. Columbus: 59,873
2. Indianapolis: 37,721
3. Omaha: 25,330
4. Grand Rapids: 10,284
5. Minneapolis: -1,544
6. Milwaukee: -2,369
7. Akron: -6,207
8. Dayton: -17,223
9. Kansas City: -19,048
10. Toledo: -21,636
11. Cincinnati: -39,767
12. St. Louis: -58,549
13. Cleveland: -120,862
14. Chicago: -172,571
15. Detroit: -239,616

By Mile 20
1. Indianapolis: 213,270
2. Columbus: 183,014
3. Kansas City: 144,634
4. Minneapolis: 141,652
5. Omaha: 97,813
6. Cincinnati: 46,813
7. Milwaukee: 27,876
8. Grand Rapids: 24,505
9. Akron: 8,625
10. Dayton: -7,484
11. Toledo: -9,112
12. St. Louis: -21,917
13. Cleveland: -88,522
14. Chicago: -215,802
15. Detroit: -291,258

Metro Area Demographics provides a greater picture of the Columbus metro’s population and demographic data.



2012 Urban and Suburban Population Trends

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2012 urban and suburban population trends

I posted the 2012 city estimates from the US Census yesterday. Within them may be an interesting trend that has long-term implications for Columbus and other cities, so today we’re going to go over 2012 urban and suburban population trends, and see how they compare.

A lot of the talk in the news in recent years has been how urban core cities are seeing a comeback of sorts. I’ve made mention of it several times, myself, with hard data located on the Demographics and Population part of this site. However, there is some disagreement between urban proponents and suburban proponents about what’s really going on, and that disagreement seems to focus mostly around if the city is growing faster than the suburbs, and if so, if that trend can be sustained.

Looking over the estimates, I noticed something that may support the urban back-to-the-city argument, at least in Columbus. What I noticed was that those villages/towns/cities that were growing tended to be clustered closer to the urban core of the metro than those that were losing population.

I first gathered the data on the Columbus metro area’s 99 incorporated places, ranging in population from 36 on up to Columbus’ 809,798. I then measured the distance between Columbus’ Downtown center and the center of all 99 places. I then broke them up into increments of about 5 miles each. Here is some of what I found.

Average Total Population Growth by Place 2010-2012 by Distance from Columbus’ Center
0-4.9 Miles: 3,962.8
5-9.9 Miles: 438.4
10-14.9 Miles: 342.8
15-19.9 Miles: 26.5
20-24.9 Miles: 148.9
25+ Miles: 10.5

What this says, is that for the most part, the closer a place is to the center, the more total average growth it’s had since 2010. While the 0-4.9 mile distance is somewhat skewed because it includes Columbus’ growth, there is also a significant drop-off beyond 15 miles from the center.

Next, I looked at all the places that saw either 0 population change or a loss during the 2010-2012 period. Again, it was separated by the distance from Columbus’ center.

0-4.9 Miles: 0 of 6, or 0.0%
5-9.9 Miles: 0 of 12, or 0.0%
10-14.9 Miles: 1 of 12, or 8.3%
15-19.9 Miles: 2 of 8, or 25.0%
20-24.9 Miles: 2 of 10, or 20.0%
25+ Miles: 21 of 51, or 41.2%

What this shows is that the further the distance away from the center, in general, the more places there were that were stagnant or lost population since 2010.

Finally, I looked at the top 15 total population increases of all places from 2010-2012, as well as their distance from Columbus’ center.
1. Columbus (obviously): +22,765- 0 Miles
2. Hilliard: +2,129- 9.9 Miles
3. Grove City: +1,257- 7.4 Miles
4. Delaware: +1,172- 23.6 Miles
5. Dublin: +1,155- 11.3 Miles
6. Westerville: +953- 12.0 Miles
7. New Albany: +783- 13.0 Miles
8. Gahanna: +580- 7.5 Miles
9. Powell: +460- 14.2 Miles
10. Reynoldsburg: +454- 9.9 Miles
11. Upper Arlington: +432- 4.1 Miles
12. Pickerington: +401- 14.1 Miles
13. Grandview Heights: +374- 2.6 Miles
14. Whitehall: +341- 6.0 Miles
15. Canal Winchester: +292- 12.7 Miles

12 of the 15 are within Franklin County. Another 2 (Pickerington and Powell) are near the Franklin County border. Only Delaware is beyond 15 miles from Columbus’ center.

So do these numbers show a real trend? Maybe. Some of the questions are: Do 2 years of data support a real trend or just a blip? Is this really an urban movement or a rural decline… or both? Is this a new/recent trend or have the numbers been changing? Those questions and others need to be answered before making a definitive statement, but if nothing else, they are a positive indication that Columbus and it’s immediate surroundings remain the metro’s (and Ohio’s) strongest population draw.