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Metro Population by Distance from Downtown

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Metro population by distance from downtown

One of the more interesting things the Census measures is the population from “City Hall”, or basically the metro population by distance from downtown. The metric measure population at every mile out from the center of each city’s downtown area. Since city boundaries come in all different sizes, this is a good way to compare urban populations.

I looked at the 15 largest Midwest metros for these numbers.

First, here is a breakdown of aggregate population at each mile marker in 2010. Aggregate means that with each mile added, the population within all previous miles are added together.

Mile 0
1. Chicago: 63,120
2. Minneapolis: 31,036
3. Milwaukee: 21,587
4. Cincinnati: 17,681
5. St. Louis: 17,359
6. Grand Rapids: 16,099
7. Omaha: 15,582
8. Indianapolis: 14,058
9. Kansas City: 13,709
10. Akron: 12,479
11. Cleveland: 9,471
12. Dayton: 9,182
13. Detroit: 8,709
14. Toledo: 8,304
15. Columbus: 7,416

This is a pretty bad showing in this list. In 2010, Columbus had the lowest downtown population, or population at Mile 0, of any of the largest 15 Midwest metros.

Mile 1
1. Chicago: 181,714
2. Minneapolis: 123,526
3. Milwaukee: 86,261
4. Grand Rapids: 75,613
5. Cincinnati: 65,264
6. Omaha: 56,244
7. Toledo: 55,739
8. Akron: 53,715
9. Columbus: 49,667
10. Indianapolis: 45,079
11. Dayton: 41,053
12. St. Louis: 40,184
13. Kansas City: 32,900
14. Detroit: 32,810
15. Cleveland: 32,193

By Mile 1, Columbus starts to move up rapidly, however.

Mile 2
1. Chicago: 318,522
2. Minneapolis: 228,927
3. Milwaukee: 208,776
4. Cincinnati: 138,235
5. Columbus: 134,826
6. Grand Rapids: 127,535
7. Akron: 122,395
8. Omaha: 113,044
9. Indianapolis: 102,412
10. Dayton: 101,817
11. Toledo: 94,058
12. St. Louis: 94,038
13. Kansas City: 77,388
14. Cleveland: 64,721
15. Detroit: 64,046

Mile 3
1. Chicago: 508,949
2. Minneapolis: 325,198
3. Milwaukee: 319,111
4. Columbus: 221,466
5. Cincinnati: 205,624
6. Grand Rapids: 184,887
7. Akron: 177,674
8. Omaha: 168,724
9. Toledo: 166,569
10. Indianapolis: 166,266
11. St. Louis: 160,117
12. Kansas City: 155,802
13. Dayton: 152,789
14. Cleveland: 139,945
15. Detroit: 109,104

Mile 4
1. Chicago: 764,400
2. Minneapolis: 448,499
3. Milwaukee: 438,629
4. Cincinnati: 315,665
5. Columbus: 314,557
6. Omaha: 253,723
7. St. Louis: 251,432
8. Grand Rapids: 247,473
9. Indianapolis: 240,970
10. Akron: 227,825
11. Cleveland: 227,309
12. Kansas City: 216,483
13. Dayton: 214,614
14. Toledo: 213,529
15. Detroit: 198,341

Mile 5
1. Chicago: 1,067,434
2. Minneapolis: 585,588
3. Milwaukee: 552,064
4. Columbus: 404,642
5. Cincinnati: 400,254
6. Cleveland: 361,475
7. St. Louis: 336,573
8. Indianapolis: 320,919
9. Omaha: 311,189
10. Grand Rapids: 305,307
11. Akron: 296,787
12. Detroit: 282,986
13. Toledo: 271,187
14. Kansas City: 269,936
15. Dayton: 262,069

So while Columbus’ downtown is down at the bottom in this list to start, it ends up being a top 5 within just a few miles. Clearly, though, the city needs to do better at getting people in the center.

What about further out? Let’s keep going.

Mile 10
1. Chicago: 2,763,025
2. Minneapolis: 1,312,640
3. Detroit: 1,053,920
4. Columbus: 993,957
5. Milwaukee: 944,415
6. Cleveland: 918,511
7. Indianapolis: 871,050
8. St. Louis: 864,336
9. Cincinnati: 862,932
10. Kansas City: 797,442
11. Omaha: 588,484
12. Dayton: 586,178
13. Akron: 502,710
14. Grand Rapids: 482,599
15. Toledo: 454,859

Mile 20
1. Chicago: 4,738,903
2. Detroit: 2,663,489
3. Minneapolis: 2,542,565
4. St. Louis: 1,878,365
5. Kansas City: 1,618,823
6. Cincinnati: 1,592,905
7. Cleveland: 1,549,799
8. Indianapolis: 1,511,675
9. Columbus: 1,432,067
10. Milwaukee: 1,317,062
11. Omaha: 788,498
12. Dayton: 757,623
13. Akron: 673,654
14. Grand Rapids: 602,220
15. Toledo: 558,219

Columbus seems to hold its own from Mile 2 through about Mile 15 or 16, and then begins to fall back as full metro populations begin to take shape.

So now we know the exact populations by distance, but what about how those are changing over time? Here are the same miles and their total change from 2000 to 2010.

Aggregate Change 2000-2010
By Mile 1
1. Chicago: 48,288
2. Minneapolis: 7,969
3. St. Louis: 5,881
4. Cleveland: 3,174
5. Milwaukee: 2,250
6. Kansas City: 1,009
7. Omaha: -53
8. Columbus: -1,049
9. Detroit: -3,601
10. Indianapolis: -4,739
11. Grand Rapids: -5,236
12. Cincinnati: -6,112
13. Akron: -8,916
14. Toledo: -10,118
15. Dayton: -10,165

By Mile 2
1. Chicago: 31,824
2. Minneapolis: 3,462
3. Omaha: 408
4. St. Louis: -1,523
5. Milwaukee: -2,399
6. Cleveland: -3,388
7. Kansas City: -4,807
8. Columbus: -6,004
9. Grand Rapids: -9,279
10. Detroit: -11,019
11. Indianapolis: -15,532
12. Cincinnati: -15,749
13. Akron: -15,874
14. Toledo: -16,771
15. Dayton: -20,826

By Mile 3
1. Chicago: 13,414
2. Minneapolis: 257
3. Omaha: -28
4. Milwaukee: -4,550
5. Columbus: -8,509
6. Grand Rapids: -8,818
7. St. Louis: -12,153
8. Kansas City: -14,528
9. Akron: -18,107
10. Toledo: -21,469
11. Cleveland: -23,287
12. Indianapolis: -23,973
13. Cincinnati: -24,548
14. Dayton: -27,652
15. Detroit: -29,905

By Mile 4
1. Minneapolis: 2,381
2. Omaha: 1,376
3. Milwaukee: -4,943
4. Grand Rapids: -8,612
5. Columbus: -9,650
6. Chicago: -12,130
7. Kansas City: -17,813
8. Akron: -18,533
9. Toledo: -22,039
10. St. Louis: -22,415
11. Indianapolis: -27,912
12. Dayton: -31,173
13. Cincinnati: -32,342
14. Cleveland: -41,948
15. Detroit: -61,209

By Mile 5
1. Omaha: 1,800
2. Minneapolis: 1,798
3. Milwaukee: -4,090
4. Columbus: -7,924
5. Grand Rapids: -8,112
6. Akron: -19,405
7. Kansas City: -21,986
8. Toledo: -26,094
9. Indianapolis: -28,401
10. Dayton: -33,066
11. St. Louis: 35,038
12. Cincinnati: -38,698
13. Chicago: -48,898
14. Cleveland: -70,067
15. Detroit: -89,973

By Mile 10
1. Columbus: 59,873
2. Indianapolis: 37,721
3. Omaha: 25,330
4. Grand Rapids: 10,284
5. Minneapolis: -1,544
6. Milwaukee: -2,369
7. Akron: -6,207
8. Dayton: -17,223
9. Kansas City: -19,048
10. Toledo: -21,636
11. Cincinnati: -39,767
12. St. Louis: -58,549
13. Cleveland: -120,862
14. Chicago: -172,571
15. Detroit: -239,616

By Mile 20
1. Indianapolis: 213,270
2. Columbus: 183,014
3. Kansas City: 144,634
4. Minneapolis: 141,652
5. Omaha: 97,813
6. Cincinnati: 46,813
7. Milwaukee: 27,876
8. Grand Rapids: 24,505
9. Akron: 8,625
10. Dayton: -7,484
11. Toledo: -9,112
12. St. Louis: -21,917
13. Cleveland: -88,522
14. Chicago: -215,802
15. Detroit: -291,258

Metro Area Demographics provides a greater picture of the Columbus metro’s population and demographic data.



2013 Ohio Metro Area Population Estimates

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2013 Ohio metro area population estimates

The US Census released the latest population estimates for metropolitan/micropolitan areas as well as counties for the year July 1, 2012 to July 1, 2013. Here is what they found for Columbus and Ohio metros.

2013 Metro Population, Highest to Lowest
1. Cincinnati: 2,137,406
2. Cleveland: 2,064,725
3. Columbus: 1,967,066
4. Dayton: 802,489
5. Akron: 705,686
6. Toledo: 608,145
7. Youngstown: 555,506
8. Canton: 403,707
9. Springfield: 136,167
10. Mansfield: 121,773
11. Lima: 105,298

2012-2013 Total Population Change, Highest to Lowest
1. Columbus: +22,129
2. Cincinnati: +8,097
3. Akron: +729
4. Canton: +28
5. Cleveland: -14
6. Lima: -31
7. Springfield: -268
8. Toledo: -336
9. Dayton: -696
10. Mansfield: -812
11. Youngstown: -2,989

Columbus leads the pack, and by a lot. Some interesting notes about these numbers is that half of the 8 major metros are growing. Also of significance is that Cleveland barely lost at all, which may indicate that the losses there are slowing down.

Now let’s take a look at where the population changes for these metros are coming from.

Total Metro Births, 2012-2013, Highest to Lowest
1. Cincinnati: +27,366
2. Columbus: +26,464
3. Cleveland: +23,204
4. Dayton: +9,407
5. Akron: +7,548
6. Toledo: +7,198
7. Youngstown: +5,459
8. Canton: +4,349
9. Springfield: +1,577
10. Mansfield: +1,362
11. Lima: +1,245

Total Metro Deaths, 2012-2013, Highest to Lowest
1. Cleveland: -20,326
2. Cincinnati: -18,365
3. Columbus: -14,765
4. Dayton: -7,812
5. Akron: -6,784
6. Youngstown: -6,781
7. Toledo: -5,700
8. Canton: -4,119
9. Springfield: -1,612
10. Mansfield: -1,289
11. Lima: -1,045

Total Metro Natural Growth (Births vs. Deaths), 2012-2013, Highest to Lowest
1. Columbus: +11,699
2. Cincinnati: +9,001
3. Cleveland: +2,878
4. Dayton: +1,595
5. Toledo: +1,498
6. Akron: +764
7. Canton: +230
8. Lima: +200
9. Mansfield: +73
10. Springfield: -35
11. Youngstown: -1,322

Natural growth is a vital part of the growth picture for any place. For Columbus, it is roughly 50% of it’s total annual growth. For places like Youngstown, with more deaths than births, it just contributes to overall decline.

Total Metro Domestic Migration, 2012-2013, Highest to Lowest
1. Columbus: +5,749
2. Canton: -275
3. Lima: -308
4. Springfield: -343
5. Mansfield: -943
6. Akron: -1,011
7. Youngstown: -1,691
8. Toledo: -2,575
9. Dayton: -3,415
10. Cincinnati: -3,894
11. Cleveland: -5,581

Total Metro International Migration, 2012-2013, Highest to Lowest
1. Columbus: +4,689
2. Cleveland: +3,698
3. Cincinnati: +3,326
4. Dayton: +1,148
5. Akron: +1,051
6. Toledo: +674
7. Canton: +261
8. Youngstown: +185
9. Springfield: +78
10. Lima: +75
11. Mansfield: +23

Total Metro Migration, 2012-2013, Highest to Lowest
1. Columbus: +10,438
2. Akron: +40
3. Canton: -14
4. Lima: -233
5. Springfield: -265
6. Cincinnati: -568
7. Mansfield: -920
8. Youngstown: -1,506
9. Cleveland: -1,883
10. Toledo: -1,901
11. Dayton: -2,267

The 2nd most important part of the growth rate, migration, is also pretty bad for most metros. Only Columbus is seeing a decent rate of growth, particularly domestically.

One final question is… how are these metro growth rates changing over time? That’s a bit harder to answer, as metro boundaries change so often that it’s more difficult to determine comparable rates decade to decade. However, this is what I came up with.

Average Annual Metro Growth By Decade
Akron
1970s: -1,891
1980s: -275
1990s: +3,739
2000s: +824
2010s: +622
Cincinnati
1970s: +6,119
1980s: +9,111
1990s: +16,474
2000s: +12,052
2010s: +7,609
Cleveland
1970s: -15,108
1980s: -8,090
1990s: +4,624
2000s: -7,090
2010s: -4,172
Columbus
1970s: +9,953
1980s: +13,487
1990s: +20,752
2000s: +22,384
2010s: +21,697
Dayton
1970s: -2,246
1980s: +1,377
1990s: +432
2000s: -665
2010s: +1,089
Lima
1970s: +110
1980s: -249
1990s: -128
2000s: -214
2010s: -337
Mansfield
1970s: +121
1980s: -509
1990s: -272
2000s: -438
2010s: -901
Springfield
1970s: -688
1980s: -270
1990s: -280
2000s: -641
2010s: -722
Toledo
1970s: +1,350
1980s: -278
1990s: +503
2000s: -776
2010s: -619
Youngstown
1970s: -470
1980s: -4,605
1990s: -1,064
2000s: -3,719
2010s: -3,422

Some improved, especially the larger metros. Smaller ones tended to do worse over time.

For more information, click on the below links:
Metro Area Demographics
Columbus vs. Other Places
US Census