The US Census recently released updated estimates for 2016 for smaller-area designations like tracts and blocks. Looking at them, I wanted to see where racial groups were growing the fastest at that level. The first map is based on the % change from 2010 to 2016. What’s interesting about this map is that it is such a hodgepodge. No single part of the county is dominated by growth in any specific racial group. However, a few things can be generally determined. For example, almost all of the tracts where the White population is growing the fastest are within I-270, and the majority of those within the eastern half of the Columbus in what have long been dominated by Black majority populations. These areas include parts of Linden, the Near South and Near East sides. That said, the White population was growing the fastest in just 30 census tracts by % change. This compared to 53 for the Black population, 83 for the Asian population and 107 for the Hispanic population.
The next map takes a slightly different approach, measuring the TOTAL change in population, rather than by %. Again, a hodgepodge, but much less so than before. Instead of being the fastest-growing in just 30 tracts, the White population rockets up to 108 tracts. This shows that, while Asian and Hispanic populations have respectable % growth, this is largely based on comparatively small population bases. Still, non-White populations are clearly making inroads throughout Franklin County.
The Census released updated 2013 census tract estimates, and they showed some interesting things. There are 285 census tracts that make up Franklin County.
First, let’s take a look at the Franklin County trends 2000-2013.
In regards to the above map, it’s a mix of both the 2013 official estimates and some that I did. For example, the official estimates had the Downtown tracts 30 and 40 losing population, as well as most of the Short North. That’s rather absurd considering the level of residential construction in these areas, as well as population estimates the city has done in the last few years for Downtown. In fact, the 2013 official estimates have Downtown tract population BELOW 2010. That’s just not the reality. So I looked over the tracts and adjusted them according to their long-term growth/decline trends. Most of them I left alone, but some adjustments had to be made. However, I was very conservative with any changes, and several tracts that the official estimates showed gains, I actually had losses.
Here are all the tracts that grew by at least 300 people between 2010 and 2013 in Franklin County, as well as their locations. Blacklick #7395: +1,609 Dublin #6230: +1,214 Columbus-West Side #7951: +1,002 Columbus-Northwest #6372: +966 Columbus Northeast #6931: +963 Hilliard #7921: +955 Columbus-East Side #9361: +952 Columbus-West Side #8350: +951 Columbus-Northwest: #6384: +949 Dublin #6220: +933 Columbus-West Side #8141: +921 Columbus-Easton #7551: +793 Columbus-Southeast #9373: +749 Hilliard #7933: +688 Minerva Park #7112: +675 Columbus-South Side #8340: +652 Hilliard #7954: +643 Columbus North Side #7044: +636 Columbus Northeast #7132: +615 Columbus Northwest #6396: +557 Dublin #6386: +549 Columbus North Side #6921: +540 Columbus Northwest #6393: +492 Columbus-West Side: +489 Gahanna #7492: +473 New Albany #7209: +472 Columbus-Hilltop #8321: +466 Columbus-Southeast #9374: +455 Grove City #9740: +441 Columbus Northeast #6945: +438 Hillard #7931: +432 Columbus-West Side #7812: +427 Columbus-South Side #9590: +411 Columbus-South Side #8710: +407 Hilliard #10602: +407 Columbus-South Side #8822: +403 Whitehall #9230: +398 Columbus-West Side #8163: +397 Columbus-East Side #9362: +389 Columbus-Downtown #30: +387 Hilliard #7953: +382 Columbus-West Side #6330: +371 Columbus-Northwest #6387: +361 Columbus-East Side #9322: +352 Columbus-South Side #8825: +349 Columbus-Southwest #8161: +346 West Side-Marble Cliff #43: +345 Columbus-Southwest #8370: +340 Grandview #85: +332 Columbus-Downtown #40: +321 Hilliard #7922: +320 Dublin #6371: +312 Grove City #9751: +304 Columbus-Campus Area #13: +303
As far as the core of the city, the 1950 boundaries, here are the results.
There are 78 tracts that make up the original 1950 city boundary. Using the official estimates, 38 of the 78 tracts grew between 2010-2013, yet had a total loss of 3,229. However, again, it had all the Downtown and adjacent tracts inexplicably losing population, yet the opposite is occurring in these areas. For Downtown, the combined loss was about 370, and for the Short North, it had the loss at more than 700.
Using my adjusted estimates, 35 tracts are growing, adding 1,166 people 2010-2013. Most of the gains were made in the Downtown and adjacent tracts, and some of the losses were simply not as steep. For example, the official estimates had tract #10, in the Campus area, losing nearly 1,300 people since 2010, which is a ridiculous loss, especially considering it grew by almost 8% 2000-2010. In fact, most of the largest losses from the official estimates were around Campus and the Short North. Nonsense.
