Tag Archives: 2015

Young Adults Prefer Density in Franklin County

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I’ve seen several articles across the internet lately questioning the idea that Millennials and young adults prefer density and urban areas. I decided to see how this played out in Franklin County overall. I first looked at the total population aged 20-34 in the year 2000 and the year 2015 by Census Tract.
Here were the maps for those years.
young adults prefer density

After looking at the numbers for both years, I came up with this map for how that age group had changed in the 2000-2015 period.

Unfortunately, some tracts, particularly in the eastern suburban areas, did not exist in 2000, and so I was not able to figure out the change for them during the period. The rest of the map, however, shows that the strongest growth in this age group was not only inside 270, but closest to Downtown and central corridors along Broad and High Streets.
These maps don’t tell us about the relationship between those changes and the population density of the census tracts. So I went further and broke the tracts into increments of density to see where the strongest growth was occurring.

With a few exceptions, there appears to be a correlation between average 20-34 aged population growth and the density of the census tracts it occurs in. This suggests that this age group, at least in Franklin County, prefers areas with moderate to high density, which typically translates to urban living.

2016 Population Estimates for Counties and Metros

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The 2016 population estimates came out this morning from the Census. Nationally, it seems that overall growth rates slowed down from where they were the year prior, and there were some surprising results in a few cases.

First, let’s take a look at the core counties for Columbus and its peer/Midwest counterparts nationally. The core city is in parenthesis.
2010—————————————————2015———————————2016
1. Cook (Chicago): 5,194,675————-1. Cook: 5,224,823————-1. Cook: 5,203,499
2. Clark (Las Vegas): 1,951,269———-2. Clark: 2,109,289————-2. Clark: 2,155,664
3. Wayne (Detroit): 1,820,584————-3. Santa Clara: 1,910,105—-3. Bexar: 1,928,680
4. Santa Clara (San Jose): 1,781,642—4. Bexar: 1,895,482—4. Santa Clara: 1,919,402
5. Bexar (San Antonio): 1,714,773——-5. Wayne: 1,757,062———5. Wayne: 1,749,366
6. Sacramento (Sac.): 1,418,788–6. Sacramento: 1,496,664–6. Sacramento: 1,414,460
7. Cuyahoga (Cleveland): 1,280,122—7. Orange: 1,284,864——–7. Orange: 1,314,367
8. Allegheny (Pittsburgh): 1,223,348—8. Cuyahoga: 1,255,025—-8. Franklin: 1,264,518
9. Franklin (Columbus): 1,163,414—–9. Franklin: 1,250,269—–9. Cuyahoga: 1,249,352
10. Hennepin (Minn.): 1,152,425—10. Allegheny: 1,229,298—-10. Hennepin: 1,232,483
11. Orange (Orlando): 1,145,951—11. Hennepin: 1,220,459—-11. Allegheny: 1,225,365
12. Travis (Austin): 1,024,266——12. Travis: 1,174,818——12. Travis: 1,199,323
13. Milwaukee (Mil): 947,735–13. Mecklenburg: 1,033,466–13. Mecklenburg: 1,054,835
14. Mecklenburg (Charl.): 919,628–14. Milwaukee: 956,314—14. Milwaukee: 951,448
15. Marion (Indianapolis): 903,393—15. Marion: 938,058———–15. Marion: 941,229
16. Hamilton (Cincinnati): 802,374—16. Hamilton: 807,748——–16. Hamilton: 809,099
17. Multnomah (Portland): 735,334–17. Multnomah: 789,125—17. Multnomah: 799,766
18. Jackson (Kansas City): 674,158–18. Jackson: 686,373——-18. Jackson: 691,801
19. Davidson (Nashville): 626,667—19. Davidson: 678,323——-19. Davidson: 684,410
20. Providence (Providence): 626,671–20. Kent: 636,095———20. Kent: 642,173
21. Kent (Grand Rapids): 602,622–21. Providence: 632,488—-21. Providence: 633,673
22. Summit (Akron): 541,781———22. Douglas: 549,168——–22. Douglas: 554,995
23. Montgomery (Dayton): 535,153–23. Summit: 541,316——–23. Summit: 540,300
24. Douglas (Omaha): 517,110–24. Montgomery: 531,567——24. Dane: 531,273
25. Sedgwick (Wichita): 498,365–25. Dane: 522,878———–25. Montgomery: 531,239
26. Dane (Madison): 488,073——-26. Sedgwick: 510,360——26. Sedgwick: 511,995
27. Lucas (Toledo): 441,815——–27. Polk: 466,688————–27. Polk: 474,045
28. Virginia Beach (VB): 437,994–28. Virginia Beach: 451,854–28. Vir. Beach: 452,602
29. Polk (Des Moines): 430,640—-29. Lucas: 433,496————-29. Lucas: 432,488
30. Allen (Fort Wayne): 355,359—30. Allen: 368,040————-30. Allen: 370,404
31. St. Louis (St. Louis): 319,294–31. St. Louis: 314,875———31. St. Louis: 311,404
32. Lancaster (Lincoln): 285,407—32. Lancaster: 305,705——-32. Lancaster: 309,637
33. Mahoning (Youngstown): 238,823–33. Mahoning: 231,767–33. Mahoning: 230,008

Franklin County moved up one spot to 8th most populated core county of the group.

Total Core County Growth of the 33 Cities Census July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016
1. Clark-Las Vegas: +46,375
2. Bexar-San Antonio: +33,198
3. Orange-Orlando: +29,503
4. Travis-Austin: +24,505
5. Mecklenburg-Charlotte: +21,369
6. Sacramento-Sacramento: +17,816
7. Franklin-Columbus: +14,249
8. Hennepin-Minneapolis: +12,024
9. Multnomah-Portland: +10,641
10. Santa Clara-San Jose: +9,297
11. Dane-Madison: +8,395
12. Polk-Des Moines: +7,357
13. Davidson-Nashville: +6,087
14. Kent-Grand Rapids: +6,078
15. Douglas-Omaha: +5,827
16. Jackson-Kansas City: +5,428
17. Lancaster-Lincoln: +3,932
18. Marion-Indianapolis: +3,171
19. Allen-Fort Wayne: +2,364
20. Sedgwick-Wichita: +1,635
21. Hamilton-Cincinnati: +1,351
22. Providence-Providence: +1,185
23. Virginia Beach-Virginia Beach: +748
24. Montgomery-Dayton: -328
25. Lucas-Toledo: -1,008
26. Summit-Akron: -1,016
27. Mahoning-Youngstown: -1,759
28. St. Louis-St. Louis: -3,471
29. Allegheny-Pittsburgh: -3,933
30. Milwaukee-Milwaukee: -4,866
31. Cuyahoga-Cleveland: -5,673
32. Wayne-Detroit: -7,696
33. Cook-Chicago: -21,324

And Total Core County Population Change Census 2010 to July 1, 2016 for the 33
1. Bexar: +213,907
2. Clark: +204,395
3. Travis: +175,057
4. Orange: +168,416
5. Santa Clara: +137,760
6. Mecklenburg: +135,207
7. Franklin: +101,104
8. Sacramento: +95,672
9. Hennepin: +80,058
10. Multnomah: +64,432
11. Davidson: +57,729
12. Polk: +43,405
13. Dane: +43,200
14. Kent: +39,551
15. Douglas: +37,885
16. Marion: +37,836
17. Lancaster: +24,230
18. Jackson: +17,643
19. Allen: +15,075
20. Virginia Beach: +14,608
21. Sedgwick: +13,630
22. Cook: +8,824
23. Providence: +7,006
24. Hamilton: +6,725
25. Milwaukee: +3,713
26. Allegheny: +2,017
27. Summit: -1,481
28. Montgomery: 3,914
29. St. Louis: -7,890
30. Mahoning: -8,815
31. Lucas: -9,327
32. Cuyahoga: -30,770
33. Wayne: -71,218

Here are the metro populations for the above 33 cities.
2010—————————————————————————–2016
1. Chicago: 9,461,105———————————————–1. Chicago: 9,512,999
2. Detroit: 4,296,250————————————————-2. Detroit: 4,297,617
3. Minneapolis: 3,348,859——————————————3. Minneapolis: 3,551,036
4. St. Louis: 2,787,701———————————————-4. St. Louis: 2,807,002
5. Pittsburgh: 2,356,285——————————————–5. Charlotte: 2,474,314
6. Portland: 2,226,009———————————————–6. Orlando: 2,441,257
7. Charlotte: 2,217,012———————————————-7. San Antonio: 2,429,609
8. Sacramento: 2,149,127——————————————8. Portland: 2,424,955
9. San Antonio: 2,142,508——————————————9. Pittsburgh: 2,342,299
10. Orlando: 2,134,411———————————————-10. Sacramento: 2,296,418
11. Cincinnati: 2,114,580——————————————–11. Cincinnati: 2,165,139
12. Cleveland: 2,077,240——————————————–12. Las Vegas: 2,155,664
13. Kansas City: 2,009,342——————————————13. Kansas City: 2,104,509
14. Las Vegas: 1,951,269——————————————-14. Austin: 2,056,405
15. Columbus: 1,901,974——————————————–15. Cleveland: 2,055,612
16. Indianapolis: 1,887,877——————————————16. Columbus: 2,041,520
17. San Jose: 1,836,911———————————————-17. Indianapolis: 2,004,230
18. Austin: 1,716,289————————————————–18. San Jose: 1,978,816
19. Virginia Beach: 1,676,822—————————————19. Nashville: 1,865,298
20. Nashville: 1,670,890———————————————20. Virginia Beach: 1,726,907
21. Providence: 1,600,852——————————————21. Providence: 1,614,750
22. Milwaukee: 1,555,908——————————————-22. Milwaukee: 1,572,482
23. Grand Rapids: 988,938—————————————–23. Grand Rapids: 1,047,099
24. Omaha: 865,350————————————————-24. Omaha: 924,129
25. Dayton: 799,232————————————————-25. Dayton: 800,683
26. Akron: 703,200—————————————————26. Akron: 702,221
27. Wichita: 630,919————————————————-27. Madison: 648,929
28. Toledo: 610,001————————————————–28. Wichita: 644,672
29. Madison: 605,435————————————————29. Des Moines: 634,725
30. Des Moines: 569,633——————————————-30. Toledo: 605,221
31. Youngstown: 565,773——————————————31. Youngstown: 544,746
32. Fort Wayne: 416,257——————————————-32. Fort Wayne: 431,802
33. Lincoln: 302,157————————————————-33. Lincoln: 326,921

The Columbus metro fell one spot in this list, but should recover it next year.

Total Metro Area Population Change July 1,2015 to July 1, 2016 for the 33
1. Orlando: +59,125
2. Austin: +58,301
3. Charlotte: +49,671
4. San Antonio: +47,906
5. Las Vegas: +46,375
6. Portland: +40,148
7. Nashville: +36,337
8. Minneapolis: +32,784
9. Sacramento: +28,830
10. Columbus: +21,376
11. Kansas City: +20,045
12. Indianapolis: +17,688
13. Des Moines: +12,145
14. San Jose: +10,238
15. Omaha: +9,861
16. Cincinnati: +9,747
17. Grand Rapids: +8,762
18. Madison: +8,315
19. Lincoln: +4,094
20. Virginia Beach: +3,439
21. Fort Wayne: +2,430
22. Providence: +2,176
23. Wichita: +1,656
24. Dayton: +883
25. Detroit: +79
26. Toledo: -358
27. Akron: -1,137
28. St. Louis: -1,328
29. Milwaukee: -1,867
32. Cleveland: -4,317
31. Youngstown: -4,644
32. Pittsburgh: -8,972
33. Chicago: -19,570

And the Total Metro Area Population Change Census 2010 to July 1, 2016
1. Austin: +340,085
2. Orlando: +306,858
3. San Antonio: +287,093
4. Charlotte: +257,340
5. Las Vegas: +204,395
6. Minneapolis: +202,177
7. Portland: +198,943
8. Nashville: +194,415
9. Sacramento: +147,274
10. San Jose: +141,875
11. Columbus: +139,517
12. Indianapolis: +116,148
13. Kansas City: +95,171
14. Des Moines: +65,092
15. Omaha: +58,773
16. Grand Rapids: +58,159
17. Chicago: +51,449
18. Cincinnati: +50,388
19. Virginia Beach: +50,090
20. Madison: +43,492
21. Lincoln: +24,764
22. St. Louis: +19,243
23. Milwaukee: +16,528
24. Fort Wayne: +15,548
25. Wichita: +13,753
26. Providence: +13,550
27. Dayton: +1,464
28. Detroit: +1,304
29. Akron: -982
30. Toledo: -4,780
31. Pittsburgh: -13,992
32. Youngstown: -21,053
33. Cleveland: -21,646

Now let’s take a closer look at Ohio only.
2016 population estimates

Top 20 Most-Populated Ohio Counties
2010————————————————-2016
1. Cuyahoga: 1,280,122—————-1. Franklin: 1,264,518
2. Franklin: 1,163,414——————-2. Cuyahoga: 1,249,352
3. Hamilton: 802,374——————–3. Hamilton: 809,099
4. Summit: 541,781———————-4. Summit: 540,300
5. Montgomery: 535,153—————5. Montgomery: 531,239
6. Lucas: 441,815————————6. Lucas: 432,488
7. Stark: 375,586————————-7. Butler: 377,537
8. Butler: 368,130————————8. Stark: 373,612
9. Lorain: 301,356———————–9. Lorain: 306,365
10. Mahoning: 238,823—————-10. Mahoning: 230,008
11. Lake: 230,041———————–11. Lake: 228,614
12. Warren: 212,693——————–12. Warren: 227,063
13. Trumbull: 210,312——————13. Clermont: 203,022
14. Clermont: 197,363——————14. Trumbull: 201,825
15. Delaware: 174,214—————–15. Delaware: 196,463
16. Medina: 172,332——————–16. Medina: 177,221
17. Licking: 166,492———————17. Licking: 172,198
18. Greene: 161,573———————18. Greene: 164,765
19. Portage: 161,419——————–19. Portage: 161,921
20. Fairfield: 146,156——————–20. Fairfield: 152,597

Top 10 Fastest-Growing Counties July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016
1. Franklin: +14,249
2. Delaware: +3,579
3. Warren: +2,624
4. Butler: +2,078
5. Licking: +1,439
6. Hamilton: +1,351
7. Fairfield: +1,271
8. Clermont: +1,231
9. Lorain: +1,152
10. Union: +1,142

Top 10 Fastest-Declining Counties July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016
1. Cuyahoga: -5,673
2. Trumbull: -1,806
3. Mahoning: -1,759
4. Stark: -1,253
5. Clark: -1,029
6. Summit: -1,016
7. Lucas: -1,008
8. Columbiana: -998
9. Madison: -684
10. Scioto: -664

Top 10 Fastest-Growing Counties Census 2010 to July 1, 2016
1. Franklin: +100,989
2. Delaware: +22,274
3. Warren: +14,195
4. Butler: +9,402
5. Hamilton: +6,731
6. Fairfield: +6,420
7. Licking: +5,706
8. Clermont: +5,659
9. Lorain: +5,009
10. Medina: +4,888

Top 10 Fastest-Declining Counties Census 2010 to July 1, 2016
1. Cuyahoga: -30,757
2. Lucas: -9,327
3. Mahoning: -8,799
4. Trumbull: -8,493
5. Columbiana: -4,156
6. Montgomery: -3,897
7. Clark: -3,547
8. Scioto: -3,411
9. Richland: -3,368
10. Ashtabula: -3,257