Tag Archives: 2010 census tract population

2011 Census Tract Estimates

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2011 census tract estimates Columbus, Ohio

While I wouldn’t normally make a post on the 2011 census tract estimates- or any other estimates for them- because I really don’t know what their reliability is, I thought it might be an interesting exercise.

I only looked at those tracts that made up the original 1950 boundaries as well as some of the adjacent areas. I won’t go into too much detail, but…

In 2010, only 20 of the 78 tracts I looked at were growing. Well, specifically, only 20 grew during the 2000-2010 period, not just in 2010 alone. So several more could’ve been starting to recover in 2010, but since it measured the whole decade, it might still show up as a loss. In any case, the 2011 estimates are interesting just because they show a much different picture.

If I use the exact estimate used, 34 of the 78 tracts were growing in 2011, a significant improvement. However, some of the estimates were hard to understand where they came from. For example, they had Downtown tracts, which have had rapid growth the last decade, as declining in population for 2011, even while more and more residential units are built and more people move into the area. Also, they showed some tracts gaining population when the long-term trend is for significant loss and no reason to see that reversing.

So using the margin of error as a guide, I went back over them and did my own estimates. Of the 78 tracts, I only did my own for 14, as they were the only ones I felt didn’t match the reality on the ground or the long-term trends. With those changes, 38 of the 78 were growing, a slight increase of the official 34.

If we use the official estimates, the total population for the 78 tracts was 232,297, a loss of 2,285 since 2010. If we use my estimates, the population would be 237,806, or an increase of 3,224. So what’s the real story? Well, new 2012 tract estimates will be coming out soon. When they do, I will compare and see what, if any, updates should be made. The only real way to know, however, is to wait until 2020 with the next census. Still, until that time, it’s fun to look at the numbers- or maps– and see if the urban core is recovering in the same way that cities and towns are in and around Franklin County.



Tract Demographic Changes Mapped

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One of the most interesting things about the last census- at least to me- was the data on what demographic groups were moving where in Columbus. The following series of maps show the central core of Columbus and how the 4 major racial/ethnic groups have been changing in the area, both in 2000 and 2010.

While I can’t directly post images, the best way to look at the following map series is to open the 2000 and 2010 versions and do a side by side comparison.

White Demographic
2000
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,0,1,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
In the 2000 map above, you could almost count the number of urban tracts with a growing White population on one hand. Even as far out as the I-270 corridor, there was a distinct lack of tracts where this group was growing. The vast majority of the growth in this demographic was in the far suburbs.
2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,0,2,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
By 2010, there had been some interesting changes. First, the ring of strong suburban growth seems to have lessened some, or at the very least, spread out more. Meanwhile, the tracts that were losing the White demographic pushed further out as well into some of these suburban areas. In the city’s urban core, the White population has clearly also been on the rise. While there were just a few positive tracts in 2000, just about every tract between Merion Village and Clintonville was growing in White population by 2010, as well as strong growth in the Near East Side, the Easton area and Downtown. Even a few tracts in the southern portions of Linden saw increases.

The question is, how will the map look in 2020? If the trends continue, the urban core should continue to expand its growth in this demographic. Sort of a reverse donut hole growth pattern.

Black Demographic
2000
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,1,1,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
In 2000, much of the urban core of Columbus was losing the Black demographic. While not nearly as stark as the 2000 map for Whites, the suburbs were once again the easy winner for this demographic’s best growth.
2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,1,2,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
The 2010 map does show improvement, with more urban tracts gaining. The area of losses are almost exclusively concentrated on the Near East Side and Southeast Side. These same areas have historically been largely African American neighborhoods, so it may just be a case of majority population shift.

Asian Demographic
2000
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,3,1,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
In 2000, Asian growth was fairly widespread, even in the urban core. There were weak spots, but not nearly as bad as the ones above.
2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,3,2,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
By 2010, though, there were some big changes. Out of the 4 demographic groups looked at, Asians were the only group which looks to have left the urban core more in the 2000s than they did in the 1990s. While other groups are increasing their presence in the city, Asians are doing just the opposite. There are still strong pockets of growth, and it’s still not as bad as Whites, but clearly there is a different dynamic to their moving patterns than with the other 3.

Hispanic Demographic
2000
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,2,1,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
Hispanics had the best overall growth map in 2000, with widespread, strong growth across most areas of the city. The inner West Side did the worst and the suburbs did the best, but overall it’s not bad.
2010
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/?custommap=1,2,2,0,40.00535,-83.0034,11
2010 showed an even stronger growth by Hispanics across the city. There were only about 15 tracts total between Downtown and the suburbs that did not see growth in this demographic, out of more than 200.

It seems clear from these maps that the urban areas of Columbus are starting to become more attractive, or at least were the previous decade. Recent years have only seemed to strengthen this trend.

To see census tract data for Columbus going back to 1930, visit here: Census Tract Maps