Tag Archives: Ohio economic data

Politics and Ohio’s Economic Performance

Posted on by
Reply

Politics and Ohio's economic performance

For this post, I want to focus on politics and Ohio’s economic performance in relation to the party in power. There’s been much said over whether the economy does better under Republicans or Democrats at the national level, and I wanted to see if national politics played any role in the economic performance of Columbus and Ohio overall. Now, to put it simply, I really just looked at Bureau of Labor Statistics to see how the economy performed under different administrations. It’s not necessarily going to be a very deep analysis beyond that. In recent surveys, many user responses chose political content as something I should contribute to the site more often. While I do not want to make the site overtly political, I think there can be a balance by using a data-driven approach. This is what I used in past posts relating to politics, from Covid numbers to voting totals.

In any case, we have to determine what administrations we’re going to look at. First, the criteria is that they have to be completed adminisrations, as we will look at entire 4-year periods. The data for the BLS for Ohio goes back to 1976, but only to 1990 for Columbus itself. Therefore, for the state we will use Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush II, Obama and Trump for the state numbers, and Clinton, Bush II, Obama and Trump for city numbers. Will the state numbers follow the same patterns as the city, or not?

For this post, it’s all about Ohio.

Let’s look at the overall stats of each president. These will be Labor Force (people within the job market), Employment (people in the labor force with jobs), Unemployment (people in the labor force without jobs), and Unemployment Rate (percent of the labor force without jobs).

State of Ohio

Labor Force Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

% Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

4,781,086

5,085,673

+304,587

+6.37

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

5,085,673

5,088,875

+3,202

+0.06

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

5,088,875

5,316,349

+227,474

+4.47

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

5,316,349

5,478,918

+162,569

+3.06

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

5,478,918

5,684,684

+205,766

+3.76

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

5,684,684

5,802,000

+117,316

+2.06

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

5,802,000

5,851,991

+49,991

+0.86

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

5,851,991

5,960,636

+108,645

+1.86

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

5,960,636

5,705,642

-254,994

-4.28

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

5,705,642

5,791,153

+85,511

+1.50

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

5,791,153

5,720,805

-70,348

-1.21

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

5,720,805

5,922,243

+201,438

+3.52


Total Labor Force Change by Entire Presidency
1. Bill Clinton: +323,082
2. Jimmy Carter: +304,587
3. Ronald Reagan: +232,676
4. Joe Biden: +201,438
5. George H.W. Bush: +162,569
6. George W. Bush: +158,636
7. Donald Trump: -70,348
8. Barack Obama: -169,483
Total by Party
Democratic: +659,624
Republican: +483,533

Next up, Employment.

State of Ohio

Employment Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

% Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

4,423,538

4,629,708

+206,170

+4.66

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

4,629,708

4,633,809

4,101

+0.09

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

4,633,809

5,032,921

+399,112

+8.61

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

5,032,921

5,092,311

+59,390

+1.18

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

5,092,311

5,396,922

+304,611

+5.98

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

5,396,922

5,577,863

+180,941

+3.35

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

5,577,863

5,484,332

-93,531

-1.68

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

5,484,332

5,437,168

-47,164

-0.86

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

5,437,168

5,279,345

-157,823

-2.90

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

5,279,345

5,489,730

+210,385

+3.99

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

5,489,730

5,370,247

-119,483

-2.18

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

5,370,247

5,651,168

+280,921

+5.23


Total Employment Change by Entire Presidency
1. Bill Clinton: +485,552
2. Ronald Reagan: +403,213
3. Joe Biden: +280,921
4. Jimmy Carter: +206,170
5. George H.W. Bush: +59,390
6. Barack Obama: +52,562
7. Donald Trump: -119,483
8. George W. Bush: -140,695
Total by Party
Democratic: +1,025,205
Republican: +202,425

Now Unemployment.

State of Ohio

Unemployment Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

% Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

357,548

455,965

+98,417

+27.53

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

455,965

455,066

-899

-0.2

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

455,066

283,428

-171,638

-37.72

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

283,428

386,607

+103,179

+36.40

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

386,607

287,762

-98,845

-25.57

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

287,762

224,137

-63,625

-22.11

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

224,137

367,659

+143,522

+64.03

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

367,659

523,468

+155,809

+42.38

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

523,468

426,297

-97,171

-18.56

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

426,297

301,423

-124,874

-29.29

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

301,423

350,558

+49,135

+16.30

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

350,558

271,075

-79,483

-22.67


Total Unemployment Change by Entire Presidency
1. Barack Obama: -222,045
2. Ronald Reagan: -172,537
3. Bill Clinton: -162,470
4. Joe Biden: -79,483
5. Donald Trump: +49,135
6. Jimmy Carter: +98,417
7. George H.W. Bush: +103,179
8. George W. Bush: +299,331
Total by Party
Democratic: -365,581
Republican: +279,108

And finally, the Unemployment Rate

State of Ohio

Unemployment Rate Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

7.5

9.0

+1.5

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

9.0

8.9

-0.1

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

8.9

5.3

-3.6

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

5.3

7.1

+1.8

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

7.1

5.1

-2.0

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

5.1

3.9

-1.2

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

3.9

6.3

+2.4

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

6.3

8.8

+2.5

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

8.8

7.5

-1.3

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

7.5

5.2

-2.3

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

5.2

6.1

+0.9

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

6.1

4.6

-1.5


Total Unemployment Rate Change by Entire Presidency
1. Ronald Reagan: -3.7
2. Barack Obama: -3.6
3. Bill Clinton: -3.2
4. Joe Biden: -1.5
5. Donald Trump: +0.9
6. Jimmy Carter: +1.5
7. George H.W. Bush: +1.8
8. George W. Bush: +4.9
Total by Party
Democratic: -6.8
Republican: +3.9

Presidents Ranked by Ohio Performance Overall Per Average Rank Position
1. Bill Clinton/Ronald Reagan: 2.0
2. Joe Biden: 3.75
3. Barack Obama: 4.25
4. Jimmy Carter: 4.5
5. Donald Trump: 6.0
6. George H.W. Bush: 7.0
7. George W. Bush: 7.5

It seems pretty clear based on this that Ohio does significantly better when Democrats are in the Oval Office. They produced 5x the number of jobs and moved the unemployment rate down by an average of -1.7 points, while Republicans moved it up by an average of almost 1 point. Every single metric measured by the BLS did better under Democrats. Only Reagan really stood out for Republicans while even Carter- regularly derided as a terrible president- did better than all 3 other Republicans on the list. In regards to the two most recent presidents from both parties, Biden clearly had much more favorable numbers than Trump did in his first term.

Now, does this trend translate to the more local level? In an upcoming post, I will examine how the Columbus Metro performed

May 2013 Jobs Data

Posted on by
Reply




May 2013 jobs data

The latest May 2013 jobs data is now out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Columbus City
Unemployment Rate: 6.0%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2012: +0
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2013: -0.8
Civilian Labor Force: 431,500
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2012: +3,600
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2013: +5,100
Employment: 405,500
Employment Change since May 2012: +3,400
Employment Change since January 2013: +8,200
Unemployment: 26,000
Unemployment Change since May 2012: +100
Unemployment Change since January 2013: -3,100

Franklin County
Unemployment Rate: 6.0%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2012: +0
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2013: -0.8
Civilian Labor Force: 631,000
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2012: +5,300
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2013: +7,300
Employment: 593,100
Employment Change since May 2012: +5,100
Employment Change since January 2013: +12,100
Unemployment: 37,900
Unemployment Change since May 2012: +200
Unemployment Change since January 2013: -4,700

Columbus Metro Area
Unemployment Rate: 6.0%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2012: +0.1
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2013: -1.0
Civilian Labor Force: 977,400
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2012: +8,600
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2013: +9,500
Employment: 919,100
Employment Change since May 2012: +7,800
Employment Change since January 2013: +18,600
Unemployment: 58,300
Unemployment Change since May 2012: +800
Unemployment Change since January 2013: -9,100

Ohio Overall
Unemployment Rate: 7.0%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2012: -0.3
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2013 : +0
Civilian Labor Force: 5,750,000
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2012: -5,000
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2013: +10,000
Employment: 5,345,000
Employment Change since May 2012: +9,000
Employment Change since January 2013: +4,000
Unemployment: 405,000
Unemployment Change since May 2012: -15,000
Unemployment Change since January 2013: +6,000

Metro Non-Farm Jobs
Total: 966,900
Change from May 2012: +12,200
Change from January 2013: +23,300

By Industry
Mining/Logging/Construction Total: 30,600
Change from May 2012: +500
Change from January 2013: +3,700

Manufacturing Total: 66,600
Change from May 2012: +600
Change from January 2013: +1,600

Trade/Transportation/Utilities Total: 180,700
Change from May 2012: -1,200
Change from January 2013: -2,500

Information Total: 16,400
Change from May 2012: -200
Change from January 2013: -100

Financial Activities Total: 71,300
Change from May 2012: -200
Change from January 2013: -400

Professional and Business Services Total: 161,000
Change from May 2012: +1,100
Change from January 2013: +5,400

Education and Health Services Total: 142,600
Change from May 2012: +4,500
Change from January 2013: +3,100

Leisure and Hospitality Total: 99,700
Change from May 2012: +4,900
Change from January 2013: +11,200

Other Services Total: 35,800
Change from May 2012: -600
Change from January 2013: -400

Government Total: 162,200
Change from May 2012: -200
Change from January 2013: +1,700



Cool Link Columbus Job Density

Posted on by
Reply



The Brookings Institute recently released a study on job density, or basically where jobs are most heavily concentrated within metro areas.

Here is how Columbus job density compared to other Ohio metros.

Total Jobs Located within 3 Miles of the Central Business District (Downtown) in 2010, Most to Least
1. Columbus: 157,193
2. Cincinnati: 151,956
3. Cleveland: 127,846
4. Dayton: 75,481
5. Akron: 66,247
6. Toledo: 59,552
7. Youngstown: 54,368

% of Total Metro Jobs Located within 3 Miles of the Central Business District (Downtown) in 2010, Highest to Lowest
1. Youngstown: 27.3%
2. Akron: 24.9%
3. Dayton: 24.5%
4. Toledo: 23.8%
5. Columbus: 21.2%
6. Cincinnati: 17.7%
7. Cleveland: 15.4%

So Columbus has the highest total number of jobs within 3 miles of the CBD, but is in the bottom half for % of total metro jobs in that area.

Jobs Change from 2000-2010 for all Jobs Located within 3 Miles of the CBD, Best to Worst
1. Toledo: -15,412
2. Akron: -16,700
3. Youngstown: -17,307
4. Columbus: -30,338
5. Cincinnati: -31,717
6. Dayton: -32,420
7. Cleveland: -54,134

% Jobs Change from 2000-2010 for all Jobs Located within 3 Miles of the CBD, Best to Worst
1. Cincinnati: -1.9%
2. Cleveland: -2.1%
3. Akron: -2.5%
4. Columbus: -2.5%
5. Toledo: -2.5%
6. Youngstown: -2.9%
7. Dayton: -3.9%

At first glance, this may seem like horrible news, and while it’s not necessarily good, almost all metros lost jobs in this area, even high growth cities like Charlotte, Atlanta, Dallas, etc. This has a lot to do with the suburbanization of the nation over the last several decades, including during most of the 2000s. Jobs left the central core to spread out into the suburban areas people were moving to.

Total Jobs Located Between 3 and 10 Miles from the CBD in 2010, Highest to Lowest
1. Columbus: 321,508
2. Cleveland: 317,128
3. Cincinnati: 252,789
4. Dayton: 164,453
5. Toledo: 137,339
6. Akron: 117,986
7. Youngstown: 89,711

% of Total Metro Jobs Located Between 3 and 10 Miles from the CBD in 2010, Highest to Lowest
1. Toledo: 54.8%
2. Dayton: 53.4%
3. Youngstown: 45.1%
4. Akron: 44.3%
5. Columbus: 43.4%
6. Cleveland: 38.1%
7. Cincinnati: 29.5%

% Jobs Change 2000-2010 for all Jobs Located Between 3 and 10 Miles from the CBD, Best to Worst
1. Dayton: +1.5%
2. Youngstown: +1.1%
3. Akron: +0.7%
4. Toledo: -0.1%
5. Cincinnati: -1.4%
6. Cleveland: -1.4%
7. Columbus: -2.4%

The positive % changes even while the area lost jobs has to do with how many the share of total metro jobs. While the area may have lost jobs, its share of the entire metro grew as other areas shrank faster.

Finally, the far suburbs…

Total Jobs Located between 10 and 35 Miles from the CBD in 2010, Highest to Lowest
1. Cincinnati: 452,895
2. Cleveland: 386,727
3. Columbus: 262,003
4. Akron: 82,260
5. Dayton: 67,838
6. Youngstown: 54,709
7. Toledo: 53,736

% of Total Metro Jobs Located Between 10 and 35 Miles from the CBD in 2010, Highest to Lowest
1. Cincinnati: 52.8%
2. Cleveland: 46.5%
3. Columbus: 35.4%
4. Akron: 30.9%
5. Youngstown: 27.5%
6. Dayton: 22.0%
7. Toledo: 21.4%

% Jobs Change 2000-2010 for all Jobs Located Between 10 and 35 Miles from the CBD, Best to Worst
1. Columbus: +5.0%
2. Cleveland: +3.5%
3. Cincinnati: +3.3%
4. Dayton: +2.5%
5. Toledo: +2.5%
6. Akron: +1.7%
7. Youngstown: +1.7%

So what do all these numbers show? Well, the larger the metro, the more spread out it seems to be as far as where jobs are located. Smaller metros like Akron and Dayton are more compact. Columbus is the most compact of the 3-Cs and has the most total jobs, by far, within 10 miles of its core of any metro, but not by %. None of the metros saw real jobs growth within 10 miles of their cores, which is to be expected. However, in recent years, urban development has exploded, and companies seem to be shifting jobs closer to the center. It remains to be seen if these are long term trends or just a blip.