The Census just came out with 2015 demographic numbers for all places with at least 65,000 people. Given that half the decade is over, it’s a good point to look at where Columbus stands relative to its national/Midwest peers in a foreign-born comparison. A few days ago, I gave numbers for GDP. In the next few posts, I will look at the people that make up the populations of these places.
First up, let’s take a look at foreign-born populations. I have looked at this topic some in the past, but I have never done a full-scale comparison for this topic.
Total Foreign-Born Population Rank by City 2000, 2010 and 2015 2000—————————————-2010———————————-2015 1. Chicago, IL: 628,903———–1. Chicago: 557,674—————1. Chicago: 573,463 2. San Jose, CA: 329,750——–2. San Jose: 366,194————-2. San Jose: 401,493 3. San Antonio, TX: 133,675—-3. San Antonio: 192,741———-3. San Antonio: 208,046 4. Austin, TX: 109,006————4. Austin: 148,431——————4. Austin: 181,686 5. Las Vegas, NV: 90,656——-5. Las Vegas: 130,503————-5. Charlotte: 128,897 6. Sacramento, CA: 82,616—–6. Chalotte: 106,047—————6. Las Vegas: 127,609 7. Portland, OR: 68,976———7. Sacramento: 96,105————-7. Sacramento: 112,579 8. Charlotte, NC: 59,849——–8. Columbus: 86,663—————-8. Columbus: 101,129 9. Minneapolis, MN: 55,475—–9. Portland: 83,026—————–9. Nashville: 88,193 10. Columbus: 47,713———–10. Indianapolis: 74,407———–10. Portland: 86,041 11. Milwaukee, WI: 46,122—–11. Nashville: 73,327—————11. Indianapolis: 72,456 12. Detroit, MI: 45,541———–12. Minneapolis: 57,846———–12. Minneapolis: 70,769 13. Providence, RI: 43,947—–13. Milwaukee: 57,222————-13. Milwaukee: 58,321 14. Nashville, TN: 38,936——-14. Providence: 52,926————14. Providence: 53,532 15. Indianapolis, IN: 36,067—-15. Orlando: 43,747—————-15. Orlando: 50,558 16. Virginia Beach, VA: 28,276–16. Virginia Beach: 40,756—–16. Omaha: 48,263 17. Orlando, FL: 26,741———17. Omaha: 39,288—————–17. Detroit: 39,861 18. Omaha, NE: 25,687———18. Kansas City: 35,532———18. Virginia Beach: 38,360 19. Kansas City, MO: 25,632—19. Detroit: 34,307—————-19. Kansas City: 37,787 20. Cleveland: 21,372————20. St. Louis: 23,011————–20. Pittsburgh: 28,187 21. Grand Rapids, MI: 20,814–21. Pittsburgh: 18,698————21. St. Louis: 21,802 22. St Louis, MO: 19,542——-22. Cleveland: 17,739————-22. Grand Rapids: 19,176 23. Pittsburgh, PA: 18,874—–23. Grand Rapids: 16,615——–23. Cleveland: 18,830 24. Cincinnati: 12,461———–24. Cincinnati: 16,531————-24. Cincinnati: 16,896 25. Toledo: 9,475—————–25. Toledo: 11,559—————–25. Akron: 10,024 26. Akron: 6,911——————26. Akron: 8,524——————–26. Toledo: 9,257 27. Dayton: 3,245—————-27. Dayton: 5,102——————-27. Dayton: 7,381 28. Youngstown: 1,605———28. Youngstown: 3,695————28. Youngstown: 1,058
Here’s the 2000-2015 total change.
And the 2000-2015 change by %.
So Columbus has an above average total and growth compared to its peers nationally.
What the numbers suggest is that Columbus was performing at a middle-mediocre level in the first half of the 2001-2015 period, and has generally been performing significantly better in the latter half. In Ohio, Columbus is poised to become Ohio’s largest metro economy over the next few years.
Millennials- those born roughly between 1981 and 2001- are big news these days. They are the largest generation ever in terms of total numbers (exceeding 76 million), and their choices are already having big impacts on everything from housing to the economy. I wanted to look at Columbus and its peers to see where it ranks in terms of attracting these young professionals.
For the comparison, I looked at metro areas of 1.5-2.5 million as well as major Midwest metros and then used their core cities to get the numbers. I used the age group of 25-34 specifically, as that is usually the number most often cited in the news.
Rank of Total Population Aged 25-34 2005_______________________2010___________________2014 1. Chicago: 463,236_______1. Chicago: 510,042_______1. Chicago: 525,381 2. San Antonio: 180,981_____2. San Antonio: 200,645____2. San Antonio: 226,711 3. Austin: 137,523_________3. Austin: 162,247_________3. Austin: 199,838 4. San Jose, CA: 133,144___4. Columbus: 147,584______4. Columbus: 170,759 5. Columbus: 131,641______5. San Jose, CA: 142,551___5. San Jose, CA: 153,690 6. Indianapolis: 114,532_____6. Indianapolis: 133,088____6. Charlotte, NC: 141,869 7. Detroit: 110,759_________7. Charlotte, NC: 127,539___7. Indianapolis: 140,491 8. Charlotte, NC: 100,025____8. Portland, OR: 113,210___8. Portland, OR: 116,109 9. Portland, OR: 90,023_____9. Milwaukee: 97,359______9. Milwaukee: 100,205 10. Las Vegas: 84,418______10. Detroit: 85,023________10. Minneapolis: 90,662 11. Milwaukee: 82,060______11. Minneapolis: 81,532____11. Las Vegas: 90,441 12. Sacramento, CA: 75,497___12. Las Vegas: 81,212____12. Detroit: 89,843 13. Minneapolis: 74,208___13. Sacramento, CA: 78,527__13. Sacramento, CA: 84,013 14. Kansas City, MO: 68,060__14. Kansas City: 73,872__14. Kansas City, MO: 79,262 15. Virginia Beach: 60,749__15. Virginia Beach: 67,614__15. Virginia Beach: 75,543 16. Omaha, NE: 56,248____16. Omaha, NE: 62,396_____16. Omaha, NE: 71,040 17. Wichita, KS: 52,426____17. St. Louis: 57,627_______17. Pittsburgh: 62,473 18. Cleveland: 50,558_____18. Wichita, KS: 56,737_____18. St. Louis: 61,718 19. St. Louis: 48,137______19. Cleveland: 54,428______19. Wichita, KS: 58,334 20. Cincinnati: 44,945_____20. Pittsburgh: 51,109______20. Cleveland: 56,134 21. Toledo: 43,134_______21. St. Paul, MN: 50,107_____21. St. Paul, MN: 54,464 22. Orlando: 40,846______22. Cincinnati: 49,067_______22. Orlando: 54,395 23. St. Paul, MN: 39,676__23. Orlando: 48,102________23. Cincinnati: 54,247 24. Lincoln, NE: 38,893___24. Madison, WI: 44,662_____24. Madison, WI: 44,835 25. Madison, WI: 38,826___25. Lincoln, NE: 42,034_____25. Toledo: 43,661 26. Pittsburgh: 38,744____26. Toledo: 41,580_________26. Lincoln, NE: 40,071 27. Grand Rapids: 35,287__27. Fort Wayne, IN: 35,193__27: Grand Rapids: 38,922 28. Des Moines: 32,640__28. Providence, RI: 31,044__28. Fort Wayne, IN: 37,741 29. Fort Wayne, IN: 31,738__29. Grand Rapids: 30,963__29. Des Moines: 33,857 30. Akron: 30,436_______30. Des Moines: 30,376_____30. Providence, RI: 31,902 31. Providence, RI: 29,307__31. Akron: 27,446________31. Akron: 28,207 32. Dayton: 18,591_______32. Dayton: 20,278________32. Dayton: 21,096 33. Youngstown: 8,505____33. Youngstown: 8,484_____33. Youngstown: 8,468
So Columbus ranks highly among total population in the 25-34 age group. But what about growth?
Total Growth Rank in 25-34 Population 2005-2014 1. Austin, TX: 62,315 2. Chicago: 62,145 3. San Antonio, TX: 45,730 4. Charlotte, NC: 41,844 5. Columbus: 39,118 6. Portland, OR: 26,086 7. Indianapolis: 25,959 8. Pittsburgh: 23,729 9. San Jose, CA: 20,546 10. Milwaukee, WI: 18,145 11. Minneapolis, MN: 16,454 12. Virginia Beach, VA: 14,794 13. St. Paul, MN: 14,788 14. Omaha, NE: 14,612 15. St. Louis, MO: 13,581 16. Orlando, FL: 13,549 17. Kansas City, MO: 11,202 18. Cincinnati: 9,302 19. Sacramento, CA: 8,516 20. Las Vegas, NV: 6,023 21. Madison, WI: 6,009 22. Fort Wayne, IN: 6,003 23. Wichita, KS: 5,908 24. Cleveland: 5,576 25. Grand Rapids, MI: 3,635 26. Providence, RI: 2,595 27. Dayton: 2,505 28. Des Moines, IA: 1,217 29. Lincoln, NE: 1,178 30. Toledo: 527 31. Youngstown: -37 32. Akron: -2,229 33. Detroit: -20,736
Again, Columbus ranks near the top during this period. What about more recently, since 2010?
Total Growth Rank of 25-34 Population 2010-2014 1. Austin: 37,591 2. San Antonio: 26,066 3. Columbus: 23,175 4. Chicago: 15,339 5. Charlotte: 14,330 6. Pittsburgh: 11,364 7. San Jose: 11,139 8. Las Vegas: 9,229 9. Minneapolis: 9,130 10. Omaha: 8,644 11. Grand Rapids: 7,959 12. Virginia Beach: 7,929 13. Indianapolis: 7,403 14. Orlando: 6,293 15. Sacramento: 5,486 16. Kansas City: 5,390 17. Cincinnati: 5,180 18. Detroit: 4,820 19. St. Paul: 4,357 20. St. Louis: 4,091 21. Des Moines: 3,481 22. Portland: 2,899 23. Milwaukee: 2,846 24. Fort Wayne: 2,548 25. Toledo: 2,081 26. Cleveland: 1,706 27. Wichita: 1,597 28. Providence: 858 29. Dayton: 818 30. Akron: 761 31. Madison: 173 32. Youngstown: -16 33. Lincoln: -1,963
So Columbus is doing even better since 2010 than it did in the earlier period and attracts significantly more Millennials in the 25-34 age group than cities often cited for this very metric.
Next, let’s look at percentage growth, as city size can affect this.
Total Percent Growth 2005-2014 in 25-34 Population 1. Pittsburgh: +61.25% 2. Austin: +45.31% 3. Charlotte: +41.83% 4. St. Paul: +37.27% 5. Orlando: +33.17% 6. Columbus: +29.72% 7. Portland: +28.98% 8. St. Louis: +28.21% 9. Omaha: +25.89% 10. San Antonio: +25.27% 11. Virginia Beach: +24.35% 12. Indianapolis: +22.67% 13. Minneapolis: +22.17% 14. Milwaukee: +22.11% 15. Cincinnati: +20.70% 16. Fort Wayne: +18.91% 17. Kansas City: +16.46% 18. Madison: +15.48% 19. San Jose: +15.43% 20. Dayton: +13.47% 21. Chicago: +13.42% 22. Sacramento: +11.28% 23. Wichita: +11.27% 24. Cleveland: +11.03% 25. Grand Rapids: +10.30% 26. Providence: +8.85% 27. Las Vegas: +7.13% 28. Des Moines: +3.73% 29. Lincoln: +3.03% 30. Toledo: +1.22% 31. Youngstown: -0.44% 32. Akron: -7.32% 33. Detroit: -18.75%
So Columbus again performs well in percentage growth, despite having one of the largest populations in the age group. It performs even better in the period since 2010, coming in at 3rd place.
Finally, now that we know the totals and the growth, what is the % of total city population that the 25-34 age group makes up?
25-34 % of Total City Population 2014 1. Minneapolis: 22.27% 2. Austin: 21.89% 3. Orlando: 20.73% 4. Pittsburgh: 20.45% 5. Columbus: 20.42% 6. Grand Rapids: 20.08% 7. St. Louis: 19.44% 8. Chicago: 19.30% 9. Portland: 18.74% 10. St. Paul: 18.30% 11. Madison: 18.25% 12. Cincinnati: 18.19% 13. Providence: 17.81% 14. Charlotte: 17.52% 15. Sacramento: 17.32% 16. Kansas City: 16.84% 17. Virginia Beach: 16.75% 18. Milwaukee: 16.71% 19. Indianapolis: 16.50% 20. Des Moines: 16.19% 21. Omaha: 15.91% 22. San Antonio: 15.78% 23. Toledo: 15.54% 24. San Jose: 15.13% 25. Wichita: 15.02% 26. Dayton: 14.96% 27. Fort Wayne: 14.74% 28. Las Vegas: 14.74% 29. Lincoln: 14.68% 30. Cleveland: 14.41% 31. Akron: 14.26% 32. Detroit: 13.21% 33. Youngstown: 13.02%
And here’s a simple % of population projection for just 4 years from now, 2018, provided the 25-34 population grows the same between 2014-2018 as it did 2010-2014. 1. Pittsburgh: 24.18% 2. Grand Rapids: 23.71% 3. Austin: 23.38% 4. Minneapolis: 23.27% 5. Columbus: 22.16% 6. Orlando: 21.34% 7. St. Louis: 20.82% 8. Cincinnati: 19.85% 9. Chicago: 19.70% 10. St. Paul: 19.05% 11. Providence: 18.20% 12. Portland: 18.14% 13. Virginia Beach: 18.1% 14. Sacramento: 17.84% 15. Charlotte: 17.67% 16. Kansas City: 17.64% 17. Des Moines: 17.50% 18. Madison: 17.40% 19. Milwaukee: 17.07% 20. Indianapolis: 16.85% 21. Omaha: 16.61% 22. Toledo: 16.59% 23. San Antonio: 16.52% 24. Fort Wayne: 15.61% 25. Las Vegas: 15.59% 26. Dayton: 15.27% 27. San Jose: 15.24% 28. Wichita: 15.23% 29. Cleveland: 15.08% 30. Akron: 14.73% 31. Detroit: 14.48% 32. Youngstown: 13.35% 33. Lincoln: 13.13%
Columbus has an existing large population of the 25-34 age demographic, and looks to be one of the strongest performers into the near future. Some would ask why that would be considering that Columbus transit is woefully lacking and has a reputation (very undeservedly, in my opinion) of being suburban- characteristics that Millennials supposedly almost universally reject. Perhaps the bottom line is that economics trump all other desires. Cost of living and employment tend to be higher up the list than rail lines, and Columbus has both a strong economy and relatively low COL. Whatever the case may be, Columbus seems to be doing something right. Continue this look at this population in Part 2.
I’ve compared Columbus to peer cities nationally in terms of density and population, but I’ve never made a Midwest cities historic population and density comparison overall. For the following, I used the top 15 largest Midwest cities as of 2014.
Red indicates a fallen ranking while blue indicates a rise. Black is no change.
Historic Population Rankings 1840 1. Cincinnati: 46,338 2. St. Louis: 16,469 3. Detroit: 9,102 4. Cleveland: 6,071 5. Columbus: 6,048 6. Chicago: 4,470 7. Indianapolis: 2,695 8. Milwaukee: 1,700 9. Toledo: 1,222 10. Kansas City: Not incorporated. 11. Lincoln: Not incorporated. 12. Minneapolis: Not incorporated. 13. Omaha: Not incorporated. 14. St. Paul: Not incorporated. 15. Wichita: Not incorporated.
1850 1. Cincinnati: 115,435 2. St. Louis: 77,860 3. Chicago: 29,963 4. Detroit: 21,019 5. Milwaukee: 20,061 6. Columbus: 17,882 7. Cleveland: 17,034 8. Indianapolis: 8,091 9. Toledo: 3,829 10. St. Paul: 1,112 11. Kansas City: Not incorporated. 12. Lincoln: Not incorporated. 13. Minneapolis: Not incorporated. 14. Omaha: Not incorporated. 15. Wichita: Not incorporated.
Columbus seems poised to take the #2 spot from Indianapolis around or just after 2020. Also, 11 of 15 would’ve seen growth 2010-2020. Cleveland, Toledo, St. Louis and Detroit would be the only cities that still lost.
One of the more interesting things the Census measures is the population from “City Hall”, or basically the metro population by distance from downtown. The metric measure population at every mile out from the center of each city’s downtown area. Since city boundaries come in all different sizes, this is a good way to compare urban populations.
I looked at the 15 largest Midwest metros for these numbers.
First, here is a breakdown of aggregate population at each mile marker in 2010. Aggregate means that with each mile added, the population within all previous miles are added together.
This is a pretty bad showing in this list. In 2010, Columbus had the lowest downtown population, or population at Mile 0, of any of the largest 15 Midwest metros.
So while Columbus’ downtown is down at the bottom in this list to start, it ends up being a top 5 within just a few miles. Clearly, though, the city needs to do better at getting people in the center.
Columbus seems to hold its own from Mile 2 through about Mile 15 or 16, and then begins to fall back as full metro populations begin to take shape.
So now we know the exact populations by distance, but what about how those are changing over time? Here are the same miles and their total change from 2000 to 2010.