We’ve been hearing a lot the last few years about how residential construction has largely turned toward the rental variety, and no more so than in the urban areas. I have tried to document the level of activity in the city in my development page, but it doesn’t quite show what’s going on in the city overall. I did a little research and found some surprising realities that fully support the rental boom. The residential construction trends of Columbus have changed significantly in recent years.
Here is a graph of annual housing construction permits from 2004-2013 broken down by multi-family and single-family types. The chart above is based on the # of units, not the number of overall projects.
So what do the numbers say? Well, it raises some interesting questions. First, was the amount of single-family home construction on the decline before 2004 given the downward trend from that year through 2005? And was multi-family construction on the rise during the same period? Did the recession merely interrupt a trend that began more than a decade ago and resurfaced strongly in recent years? It’s hard to say for sure as I don’t have information before 2004, but regardless, it is clear that multi-family construction is the preferred residential preference right now by builders. Single-family home construction, however, has remained steady and well below its previous peak of the last decade.
This continued low level of single-family construction has likely contributed to the fact that area sales in that market have been down for several months now due to a lack of inventory. Prices, however, have risen.
Unfortunately, I have been unable to update this site for about a month, but I am back now and have quite a bit to add. First, I have the numbers for the local Housing Market Update February 2014. Due to changes in the way the numbers were gotten, January’s were not available. I still do them for 21 major areas of Franklin County, however, and here they are. As always, the data is from Columbus Realtors.
I hear all the time how Columbus is extremely suburban (low density) in its development. But where does it actually rank with its peers? One metric is looking at exurbia, the far outer suburban areas that are largely made up of sprawl. How does exurbia in the Columbus metro compare to other places?
I looked at metros of similar size to Columbus (1.5-2.5 million).
Metro Population Living in Exurbia, 2000 1. Nashville, TN: 23.1% 2. Austin, TX: 21.8% 3. Charlotte, NC: 16.7% 4. Orlando, FL: 14.7% 5. San Antonio, TX: 12.6% 6. Indianapolis, IN: 10.5% 7. Kansas City, KS: 9.0% 8. Cincinnati: 6.7% 9. Virginia Beach: 6.0% 10. Portland, OR: 5.8% 11. Columbus: 4.9% 12. Sacramento, CA: 4.1% 13. Las Vegas, NV: 3.1% 14. Providence, RI: 2.9% 15. Milwaukee, WI: 2.8% 16. San Jose, CA: 1.1% 17. Cleveland: 1.0% 18. Pittsburgh, PA: 0.8%
Metro Population Living in Exurbia, 2010 1. Austin, TX: 32.3% 2. Nashville, TN: 27.9% 3. Charlotte, NC: 22.7% 4. Orlando, FL: 21.7% 5. San Antonio, TX: 20.3% 6. Indianapolis: 15.8% 7. Kansas City, KS: 14.4% 8. Las Vegas, NV: 10.6% 9. Cincinnati: 8.8% 10. Columbus: 7.7% 11. Sacramento, CA: 7.7% 12. Virginia Beach, VA: 7.4% 13. Portland, OR: 6.7% 14. Milwaukee, WI: 3.3% 15. Providence, RI: 3.2% 16. Cleveland: 1.7% 17. Pittsburgh, PA: 1.1% 18. San Jose, CA: 1.1%
Metro Population Living in Exurbia Total % Change 2000-2010 1. Las Vegas, NV: +389.9% 2. Sacramento, CA: +123.5% 3. Austin, TX: +103.8% 4. San Antonio, TX: +101.6% 5. Orlando, FL: +92.0% 6. Charlotte, NC: +82.5% 7. Columbus: +78.4% 8. Kansas City, KS: +75.6% 9. Indianapolis, IN: +72.9% 10. Cleveland: +58.3% 11. Nashville, TN: +46.4% 12. Cincinnati: +38.7% 13. Portland, OR: +33.5% 14. Virginia Beach, VA: +31.2% 15. Pittsburgh, PA: +28.0% 16. Milwaukee, WI: +20.8% 17. Providence, RI: +10.3% 18. San Jose, CA: +9.0%
So what these numbers show is that Columbus is actually in the bottom half of exurban population vs. its 17 peers, but is in the top half of growth in that population. As can be imagined, a large part of this growth came before the recession.
Metro Exurban Population Growth 2000-2007 1. Las Vegas, NV: +285.2% 2. Sacramento, CA: +104.2% 3. Orlando, FL: +78.3% 4. Austin, TX: +74.2% 5. Columbus: +62.0% 6. Charlotte, NC: +58.4% 7. San Antonio, TX: +56.2% 8. Kansas City, KS: +55.4% 9. Indianapolis, IN: +46.4% 10. Nashville, TN: +30.6% 11. Portland, OR: +29.1% 12. Cleveland: +27.0% 13. Cincinnati: +26.2% 14. Virginia Beach, VA: +25.7% 15. Pittsburgh, PA: +16.5% 16. Milwaukee, WI: +13.3% 17. Providence, RI: +10.9% 18. San Jose, CA: +5.9%
Metro Exurban Population Growth 2007-2010 1. San Antonio, TX: +29.1% 2. Las Vegas, NV: +27.2% 3. Cleveland: +24.7% 4. Indianapolis, IN: +18.0% 5. Austin, TX: +17.0% 6. Charlotte, NC: +15.3% 7. Kansas City, KS: +13.7% 8. Nashville, TN: +12.1% 9. Columbus: +10.1% 10. Cincinnati: +9.9% 11. Pittsburgh, PA: +9.8% 12. Sacramento, CA: +9.5% 13. Orlando, FL: +7.7% 14. Milwaukee, WI: +6.7% 15. Virginia Beach, VA: +4.3% 16. Portland, OR: +3.3% 17. San Jose, CA: +2.9% 18. Providence, RI: -0.6%
Average Annual Rate Change Between 2000-2007 and 2007-2010 1. Cleveland: +117.1% 2. Pittsburgh, PA: +45.5% 3. San Antonio, TX: +34.8% 4. San Jose, CA: +25.0% 5. Milwaukee, WI: +22.2% 6. Indianapolis, IN: +1.8% 7. Nashville, TN: +0.0% 8. Cincinnati: -5.9% 9. Charlotte, NC: -29.4% 10. Kansas City, KS: -32.3% 11. Austin, TX: -34.1% 12. Columbus: -53.5% 13. Virginia Beach, VA: -57.6% 14. Las Vegas, NV: -60.8% 15. Portland, OR: -70.3% 16. Orlando, FL: -70.9% 17. Sacramento, CA: -71.0% 18. Providence, RI: -113.3%
So there you have it. Columbus is definitely not anywhere near the sprawl king it’s often made out to be, even within its own peer group. Outside of it, there are dozens of metros with far more.
Back in November, I wrote about Ohio’s improving growth outlook. In that post, I examined domestic out-migration and domestic in-migration 2005-2012, and discovered that the net change had been improving. The state was losing fewer people over time domestically, and the difference had declined to under 2,000 people by 2012, a HUGE improvement from the start of the period.
Recently, the US Census released 2013 state population estimates, along with components of population change for the July 1st, 2012-July 1st, 2013 period. More positive news was to be found in those estimates.
First, Ohio’s population increased to 11,570,808, representing an annual increase of 17,777. While the increase is not particularly great, especially in comparison to states nationally, there are some positive nuggets with that number. The state held on to its position as the 7th most populous state, and the increase was the highest since pre-recession. The state moved up 18 spots in the total annual growth rankings 2012-2013 vs. 2011-2012. This was the best increase of all 50 states. It was also the best growth for the state since 2007. Did the state bottom out in 2012? Perhaps, but way too early to tell. Still, a very good improvement that halted a general decline.
The components of change are also interesting.
The migration patterns show a few things. First, 2013 had the 2nd highest rate since 2000 of in-international migration. It was also one of the best years (since 1996) for domestic in-migration.
The question is, can Ohio keep improving or is this just a temporary blip? Time will tell.
