A small snow event should affect the Columbus area today into tomorrow morning, with forecasts calling for up to 2″ of snow when all’s said and done. While by no means a significant event, it could end up being one of the largest snowfalls of the entire 2023-2024 winter season. The reason- El Niño.
El Niño winters in Ohio tend to be much warmer than normal with much below normal snowfall. This is especially true when the El Niño is moderate to strong, as it is now. Let’s take a look back at how different ENSO states (or El Nino Southern Oscillation) produced different results in Columbus winter history.
ENSO conditions come in 3 different forms- El Niño, which is when the Equatorial Pacific is warmer than normal, Neutral, when the waters are neither cold nor warm, and La Niña, which features colder than normal Equatorial Pacific waters.
Since the 1950-1951 season, there have been 24 Neutral seasons, 25 La Niña seasons and 25 El Niño seasons, so the breakdown has been very even. Because there is a lag because Pacific water temperatures and atmospheric response, the conditions that affect winter weather can typically be traced back to Fall water temperatures rather than winter. To see how 2023-2024 might shape up, we have to look at the September-October-November Pacific water temperature anomalies. During that time, the anomaly was +1.8. Which seasons had an anomaly of +1.5 to +2 during September-October-November? As it turns out, not very many- only 1965, 1972, 1982 and 1987.
How were those 4 subsequent winters in terms of temperature and snowfall?
Mean Temperature
1965-1966: 29.4
1972-1973: 32.8
1982-1983: 34.7
1987-1988: 30.5
Avg: 31.9
Temperatures overall were somewhat split, with 2 winters being slightly below normal and 2 winters with well-above normal temperatures, with the average of the 4 being slightly above.
Snowfall
1965-1966: 17.5″
1972-1973: 24.5″
1982-1983: 11.5″
1987-1988: 23.9″
Avg: 19.4″
Snowfall was well below normal in all 4 seasons, with an average of about 8″ below normal.
The snowfall that did fall typically came in 1-2 moderate events with very little otherwise.
1965-1966
5.9″ 1/22/66
3.7″ 2/1/66
1.2″ 1/29/66
1965-1966 had a few moderate events, but the 3 days here were the only 3 days during the entire winter that featured an inch or more of daily snowfall. This winter also occurred during a generally snowier, colder decade.
1972-1973
6.3″ 4/12/1973
4.0″ 11/30/1972
2.1″ 3/17/1973
1972-1973 again featured a few moderate events as well that contained the bulk of the season’s snow. The interesting thing about this winter is that those events occurred outside of the main December-January-February heart of winter.
1982-1983
1.9″ 2/6/1983, 3/11/1983
1.1″ 1/15/1983
1.0″ 12/10/1982
1982-1983 ended up being what’s called a Super ENSO event, with a very strong El Niño. Temperatures were very warm the entire winter, and snowfall was less than 50% of normal.
1987-1988
4.7″ 1/25/1988
1.8″ 12/3/1987
1.6″ 2/11/1988
1987-1988 only had a single moderate event, with most other snowfalls during the season amounting to a few tenths.
Bottom line: Don’t expect major snowfalls this winter.
Now, these are just 4 seasons. Other slightly stronger or weaker El Niño seasons produced very different results. Furthermore, the orientation of where the warmest water is in the Pacific can have very different outcomes. For example, if the warmer water is hugging the coast of South America, winters tend to be warmer and snowless, but if that warmer water is centered further west in the Pacific, winters can be very cold and snowy. For example, both the winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were west-based El Niño seasons, and they were historically snowy and cold winters. 2023-2024 is decidedly an east-based Niño, however, so it’s unlikely we will see anything but a rather boring winter with warmer than normal temperatures and below average snowfall. Obviously, depending on your viewpoint, that could be a very good thing.
