Politics and Ohio’s Economic Performance

Politics and Ohio's economic performance

For this post, I want to focus on politics and Ohio’s economic performance in relation to the party in power. There’s been much said over whether the economy does better under Republicans or Democrats at the national level, and I wanted to see if national politics played any role in the economic performance of Columbus and Ohio overall. Now, to put it simply, I really just looked at Bureau of Labor Statistics to see how the economy performed under different administrations. It’s not necessarily going to be a very deep analysis beyond that. In recent surveys, many user responses chose political content as something I should contribute to the site more often. While I do not want to make the site overtly political, I think there can be a balance by using a data-driven approach. This is what I used in past posts relating to politics, from Covid numbers to voting totals.

In any case, we have to determine what administrations we’re going to look at. First, the criteria is that they have to be completed adminisrations, as we will look at entire 4-year periods. The data for the BLS for Ohio goes back to 1976, but only to 1990 for Columbus itself. Therefore, for the state we will use Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush II, Obama and Trump for the state numbers, and Clinton, Bush II, Obama and Trump for city numbers. Will the state numbers follow the same patterns as the city, or not?

For this post, it’s all about Ohio.

Let’s look at the overall stats of each president. These will be Labor Force (people within the job market), Employment (people in the labor force with jobs), Unemployment (people in the labor force without jobs), and Unemployment Rate (percent of the labor force without jobs).

State of Ohio

Labor Force Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

% Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

4,781,086

5,085,673

+304,587

+6.37

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

5,085,673

5,088,875

+3,202

+0.06

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

5,088,875

5,316,349

+227,474

+4.47

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

5,316,349

5,478,918

+162,569

+3.06

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

5,478,918

5,684,684

+205,766

+3.76

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

5,684,684

5,802,000

+117,316

+2.06

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

5,802,000

5,851,991

+49,991

+0.86

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

5,851,991

5,960,636

+108,645

+1.86

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

5,960,636

5,705,642

-254,994

-4.28

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

5,705,642

5,791,153

+85,511

+1.50

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

5,791,153

5,720,805

-70,348

-1.21

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

5,720,805

5,922,243

+201,438

+3.52


Total Labor Force Change by Entire Presidency
1. Bill Clinton: +323,082
2. Jimmy Carter: +304,587
3. Ronald Reagan: +232,676
4. Joe Biden: +201,438
5. George H.W. Bush: +162,569
6. George W. Bush: +158,636
7. Donald Trump: -70,348
8. Barack Obama: -169,483
Total by Party
Democratic: +659,624
Republican: +483,533

Next up, Employment.

State of Ohio

Employment Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

% Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

4,423,538

4,629,708

+206,170

+4.66

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

4,629,708

4,633,809

4,101

+0.09

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

4,633,809

5,032,921

+399,112

+8.61

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

5,032,921

5,092,311

+59,390

+1.18

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

5,092,311

5,396,922

+304,611

+5.98

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

5,396,922

5,577,863

+180,941

+3.35

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

5,577,863

5,484,332

-93,531

-1.68

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

5,484,332

5,437,168

-47,164

-0.86

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

5,437,168

5,279,345

-157,823

-2.90

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

5,279,345

5,489,730

+210,385

+3.99

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

5,489,730

5,370,247

-119,483

-2.18

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

5,370,247

5,651,168

+280,921

+5.23


Total Employment Change by Entire Presidency
1. Bill Clinton: +485,552
2. Ronald Reagan: +403,213
3. Joe Biden: +280,921
4. Jimmy Carter: +206,170
5. George H.W. Bush: +59,390
6. Barack Obama: +52,562
7. Donald Trump: -119,483
8. George W. Bush: -140,695
Total by Party
Democratic: +1,025,205
Republican: +202,425

Now Unemployment.

State of Ohio

Unemployment Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

% Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

357,548

455,965

+98,417

+27.53

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

455,965

455,066

-899

-0.2

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

455,066

283,428

-171,638

-37.72

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

283,428

386,607

+103,179

+36.40

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

386,607

287,762

-98,845

-25.57

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

287,762

224,137

-63,625

-22.11

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

224,137

367,659

+143,522

+64.03

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

367,659

523,468

+155,809

+42.38

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

523,468

426,297

-97,171

-18.56

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

426,297

301,423

-124,874

-29.29

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

301,423

350,558

+49,135

+16.30

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

350,558

271,075

-79,483

-22.67


Total Unemployment Change by Entire Presidency
1. Barack Obama: -222,045
2. Ronald Reagan: -172,537
3. Bill Clinton: -162,470
4. Joe Biden: -79,483
5. Donald Trump: +49,135
6. Jimmy Carter: +98,417
7. George H.W. Bush: +103,179
8. George W. Bush: +299,331
Total by Party
Democratic: -365,581
Republican: +279,108

And finally, the Unemployment Rate

State of Ohio

Unemployment Rate Data

President

Figure at Term Beginning

Figure at Term End

Net Change

Jimmy Carter (D)

1/1977-1/1981

7.5

9.0

+1.5

Ronald Reagan (R)

1st Term

1/1981-1/1985

9.0

8.9

-0.1

Ronald Reagan (R)

2nd Term

1/1985-1/1989

8.9

5.3

-3.6

George H.W. Bush (R)

1/1989-1/1993

5.3

7.1

+1.8

Bill Clinton (D)

1st Term

1/1993-1/1997

7.1

5.1

-2.0

Bill Clinton (D)

2nd Term

1/1997-1/2001

5.1

3.9

-1.2

George W. Bush (R)

1st Term

1/2001-1/2005

3.9

6.3

+2.4

George W. Bush (R)

2nd Term

1/2005-1/2009

6.3

8.8

+2.5

Barack Obama (D)

1st Term

1/2009-1/2013

8.8

7.5

-1.3

Barack Obama (D)

2nd Term

1/2013-1/2017

7.5

5.2

-2.3

Donald Trump (R)

1st Term

1/2017-1/2021

5.2

6.1

+0.9

Joe Biden (D)

1/2021-1/2025

6.1

4.6

-1.5


Total Unemployment Rate Change by Entire Presidency
1. Ronald Reagan: -3.7
2. Barack Obama: -3.6
3. Bill Clinton: -3.2
4. Joe Biden: -1.5
5. Donald Trump: +0.9
6. Jimmy Carter: +1.5
7. George H.W. Bush: +1.8
8. George W. Bush: +4.9
Total by Party
Democratic: -6.8
Republican: +3.9

Presidents Ranked by Ohio Performance Overall Per Average Rank Position
1. Bill Clinton/Ronald Reagan: 2.0
2. Joe Biden: 3.75
3. Barack Obama: 4.25
4. Jimmy Carter: 4.5
5. Donald Trump: 6.0
6. George H.W. Bush: 7.0
7. George W. Bush: 7.5

It seems pretty clear based on this that Ohio does significantly better when Democrats are in the Oval Office. They produced 5x the number of jobs and moved the unemployment rate down by an average of -1.7 points, while Republicans moved it up by an average of almost 1 point. Every single metric measured by the BLS did better under Democrats. Only Reagan really stood out for Republicans while even Carter- regularly derided as a terrible president- did better than all 3 other Republicans on the list. In regards to the two most recent presidents from both parties, Biden clearly had much more favorable numbers than Trump did in his first term.

Now, does this trend translate to the more local level? In an upcoming post, I will examine how the Columbus Metro performed

Strange Columbus- 1955 Nuclear Test Fallout

From 1945 until an atmospheric test moratorium in July, 1962, atomic bomb testing in Nevada was so common that Las Vegas tourists would hold parties just to watch the tests from their hotel rooms. Little was known, at least in the beginning, about the effects of nuclear fallout, or just how far it could actually spread.

On April 18, 1955, during what was known as Operation Teapot, the Columbus Dispatch reported that radiation from the testing site had reached Columbus.

1955 nuclear fallout

1955 nuclear fallout

The radiation had come from the MET test which occurred on April 15, 1955. The bomb was 22 kilotons in size. The video above is from the MET test itself.

Events like this happened several times as the jet stream carried radioactive fallout across the country, and the 1955 nuclear test fallout wouldn’t be the last. It’s unclear whether this fallout had any substantial health impacts long-term, locally or otherwise, but today we understand that even relatively low doses of radiation increase one’s risk for developing cancers down the road. Luckily, these increased levels tended to last a day or two only.

Worst Columbus Droughts

Worst Columbus droughts

This drought map is for September 10th, 2024.

The Columbus area saw very little rain over the summer, and that trend has continued this September. This severe drought is affecting other parts of the state as well. How does the current dry period compare to the worst Columbus droughts historically, though?

Top 10 Longest Periods with No Measurable Precipitation, in Total Days
1. 9/13/1963-10/30/1963: 48
2. 9/2/1908-9/27/1908, 8/23/1964-9/17/1964: 26
3. 10/6/1924-10/30/1924: 25
4. 10/30/1917-11/22/1917: 24
5. 9/18/1897-10/10/1897, 9/23/1957-10/15/1957, 8/31/1985-9/22/1985: 23
6. 10/11/1952-11/11/1952, 8/24/2002-9/14/2002: 22
7. 5/1/1903-5/21/1903, 9/30/1934-10/20/1934, 5/21/2023-6/10/2023: 21
8. 8/21/1925-9/9/1925, 9/23/1938-10/12/1938, 9/11/1941-9/30/1941, 8/7/1951-8/26/1951, 11/1/1976-11/20/1976, 3/11/1999-3/30/1999, 9/15/2017-10/4/2017: 20
9. 7/5/1884-7/23/1884, 8/23/1887-9/10/1887, 10/16/1903-11/3/1903, 3/1/1910-3/19/1910, 9/8/1917-9/26/1917, 10/13/1927-10/31/1927, 8/22/1938-9/9/1938, 4/21/1980-5/9/1980: 19
10. 11/5/1884-11/22/1884, 9/15/1885-10/2/1885, 10/1/1920-10/18/1920, 8/6/1928-8/23/1928, 6/24/1944-7/11/1944, 5/18/1948-6/4/1948, 10/6/1953-10/23/1953, 8/23/1955-9/9/1955, 6/2/1994-6/19/1994, 6/25/1996-7/12/1996, 9/12/2014-9/29/2014, 9/2/2019-9/19/2019: 18

2024’s longest period without measurable precipitation was 17 days, from 6/6/2024 to 6/22/2024.

However, having no precipitation at all for a significant period of time is relatively rare, and the formation of a drought usually occurs just because of low precipitation, not just no precipitation. And that’s certainly the case for 2024.

Top 10 Longest Periods with the Most Consecutive Days with 0.1″ or Less
1. 9/13/1963-10/30/1963: 48
2. 10/26/1904-12/9/1904: 45
3. 9/30/1924-11/12/1924: 44
4. 2/9/1969-3/23/1969: 43
5. 8/18/1908-9/27/1908, 6/12/1936-7/22/1936: 41
6. 10/1/1887-11/9/1887: 40
7. 7/17/1910-8/24/1910, 8/19/2024-9/26/2024: 39
8. 12/3/1955-1/9/1956: 38
9. 1/6/1944-2/10/1944, 9/29/1944-11/3/1944: 36
10. 12/14/1985-1/16/1986: 34

2024 produced the 9th longest period where daily rainfall failed to surpass 0.1″ for 39 consecutive days. Only 2 days during that period saw any measurable rainfall whatsoever.

The Summer of 2024 produced the 3rd lowest precipitation amount since reliable records began in 1879, with only the Dust Bowl years of 1930 and 1933 having slightly less. The 5.07″ that fell between June and August is extremely low. June’s precipitation was 6th lowest, July’s was a bit better at 16th lowest, and August’s was better still at 29th lowest. No month, though, saw 2″ or more, and the summer precipitation deficit was 7.68″ below normal, or less than 40% of normal.
September is starting off dry as well. It’s already more than an inch below normal through the 11th, and there hasn’t been a single day with 0.1″ or more since August 18th. The forecast doesn’t show much hope, either. No rain- not even a small chance of it- is currently predicted through September 18th. If this pattern continues long enough, reservoirs may become dangerously low.

For Franklin County specifically, as of September 10th, 100% of the county is in the classification of Severe Drought, and 66.4% is classified as being in Extreme Drought.

Strange Columbus July 31, 1949 UFO




From the files of Project Blue Book, this event had quite a few witnesses, particularly on the East Side of Columbus. The witnesses included local police, and the object was described as “unconventional aircraft”. It was reported by at least two media outlets at the time. Despite the witness accounts, the report concluded it was merely a conventional aircraft.
Strange Columbus July 31, 1949 UFO




To view more incidents around the world, visit this link.
UFO Database



2023 Population Estimates of Columbus Metro Places


2023 population estimates

New 2023 population estimates of Columbus metro places were just released by the US Census. In general, they showed that most places are now recovering from the pandemic population decline blip.

First, the full list of all available population estimates for Columbus metro area incorporated places. This list does not include Census Designated Places, as estimates for those are only done once per decade. Red places have moved down in the rankings, green have moved up.


Out of Ohio’s 925 incorporated communities, 660 showed a population loss between 2020-2023, or 71.35%. 27 saw no population change, and 238- or 25.73%- saw population growth.
In the Columbus metro, however, 60% of its communities saw growth, with 6% seeing no change and 34% seeing a loss. The Columbus metro places represented just 5.15% of the total communities seeing loss within the state, but 25.73% of all the communities seeing growth. This shows just how poorly most of the state is doing in comparison to the Columbus area.