The Midwest vs. South in Regional Domestic Migration in 2016




regional domestic migration in 2016

For years, if not decades, we’ve been hearing a familiar tale- that anyone and everyone is moving from the Midwest and Northeast to the South and West. This trend began during and after the collapse of Northern manufacturing, and as higher cost of living began to make the lower-cost South more attractive in particular. However, a lot of the South’s growth over the years- indeed a majority- never had anything to do with region-to-region migration. Instead, it was due largely to natural growth (births vs. deaths) and international migration, particularly from Central America. What received all the attention, though, was the belief that people were packing up and moving to the South from places like Ohio and other struggling Northern states. While that may have been true for a while, that is increasingly looking like it is no longer the case.

The Midwest, especially, has been derided as the region no one wants to live in. Despite its growing population approaching 66 million people, the common refrain was that its colder winters, flailing economies and questionable demographic future meant that it was simply a region being left behind by the booming Southern states.

Recently, the US Census released estimates for 2015-2016 geographic mobility, and they tell a very different story altogether. Regional domestic migration in 2016 may have actually bucked the trends.

First, let’s look at the total domestic migration moving to the Midwest from other regions.
South to Midwest: +309,000
West to Midwest: +72,000
Northeast to Midwest: +61,000
Total to Midwest: +442,000

And then compare that to the total that the Midwest sends to other regions.
Midwest to South: -254,000
Midwest to West: -224,000
Midwest to Northeast: -34,000
Total from Midwest: -512,000

Net difference by region.
Midwest vs. South: +55,000
Midwest vs. West: -152,000
Midwest vs. Northeast: +27,000
Total Net: -70,000

So while the Midwest is seeing an overall net domestic migration loss, it is entirely to the Western states.

This could just be an off year, as almost all recent years showed losses to the South, but then again, maybe not. The South has been in a boom for several decades now, and in that time, the region still lags the other 3 in almost every quality of life metric used. All booms end eventually, and the South’s 2 biggest perceived advantages, low cost of living and business-friendly climate, have been gradually eroding over time. As Census surveys show, people don’t actually move for a change in weather, so it’s the economic factors that are going to make the biggest impacts long-term. The Midwest now has many cities and several states that are doing well economically, including Columbus, and perhaps they are becoming more attractive than they have in many years. Time will tell, but last year, the narrative of an unattractive Midwest vs. South was at least temporarily shelved.

Metro Population by Distance from Downtown




Metro population by distance from downtown

One of the more interesting things the Census measures is the population from “City Hall”, or basically the metro population by distance from downtown. The metric measure population at every mile out from the center of each city’s downtown area. Since city boundaries come in all different sizes, this is a good way to compare urban populations.

I looked at the 15 largest Midwest metros for these numbers.

First, here is a breakdown of aggregate population at each mile marker in 2010. Aggregate means that with each mile added, the population within all previous miles are added together.

Mile 0
1. Chicago: 63,120
2. Minneapolis: 31,036
3. Milwaukee: 21,587
4. Cincinnati: 17,681
5. St. Louis: 17,359
6. Grand Rapids: 16,099
7. Omaha: 15,582
8. Indianapolis: 14,058
9. Kansas City: 13,709
10. Akron: 12,479
11. Cleveland: 9,471
12. Dayton: 9,182
13. Detroit: 8,709
14. Toledo: 8,304
15. Columbus: 7,416

This is a pretty bad showing in this list. In 2010, Columbus had the lowest downtown population, or population at Mile 0, of any of the largest 15 Midwest metros.

Mile 1
1. Chicago: 181,714
2. Minneapolis: 123,526
3. Milwaukee: 86,261
4. Grand Rapids: 75,613
5. Cincinnati: 65,264
6. Omaha: 56,244
7. Toledo: 55,739
8. Akron: 53,715
9. Columbus: 49,667
10. Indianapolis: 45,079
11. Dayton: 41,053
12. St. Louis: 40,184
13. Kansas City: 32,900
14. Detroit: 32,810
15. Cleveland: 32,193

By Mile 1, Columbus starts to move up rapidly, however.

Mile 2
1. Chicago: 318,522
2. Minneapolis: 228,927
3. Milwaukee: 208,776
4. Cincinnati: 138,235
5. Columbus: 134,826
6. Grand Rapids: 127,535
7. Akron: 122,395
8. Omaha: 113,044
9. Indianapolis: 102,412
10. Dayton: 101,817
11. Toledo: 94,058
12. St. Louis: 94,038
13. Kansas City: 77,388
14. Cleveland: 64,721
15. Detroit: 64,046

Mile 3
1. Chicago: 508,949
2. Minneapolis: 325,198
3. Milwaukee: 319,111
4. Columbus: 221,466
5. Cincinnati: 205,624
6. Grand Rapids: 184,887
7. Akron: 177,674
8. Omaha: 168,724
9. Toledo: 166,569
10. Indianapolis: 166,266
11. St. Louis: 160,117
12. Kansas City: 155,802
13. Dayton: 152,789
14. Cleveland: 139,945
15. Detroit: 109,104

Mile 4
1. Chicago: 764,400
2. Minneapolis: 448,499
3. Milwaukee: 438,629
4. Cincinnati: 315,665
5. Columbus: 314,557
6. Omaha: 253,723
7. St. Louis: 251,432
8. Grand Rapids: 247,473
9. Indianapolis: 240,970
10. Akron: 227,825
11. Cleveland: 227,309
12. Kansas City: 216,483
13. Dayton: 214,614
14. Toledo: 213,529
15. Detroit: 198,341

Mile 5
1. Chicago: 1,067,434
2. Minneapolis: 585,588
3. Milwaukee: 552,064
4. Columbus: 404,642
5. Cincinnati: 400,254
6. Cleveland: 361,475
7. St. Louis: 336,573
8. Indianapolis: 320,919
9. Omaha: 311,189
10. Grand Rapids: 305,307
11. Akron: 296,787
12. Detroit: 282,986
13. Toledo: 271,187
14. Kansas City: 269,936
15. Dayton: 262,069

So while Columbus’ downtown is down at the bottom in this list to start, it ends up being a top 5 within just a few miles. Clearly, though, the city needs to do better at getting people in the center.

What about further out? Let’s keep going.

Mile 10
1. Chicago: 2,763,025
2. Minneapolis: 1,312,640
3. Detroit: 1,053,920
4. Columbus: 993,957
5. Milwaukee: 944,415
6. Cleveland: 918,511
7. Indianapolis: 871,050
8. St. Louis: 864,336
9. Cincinnati: 862,932
10. Kansas City: 797,442
11. Omaha: 588,484
12. Dayton: 586,178
13. Akron: 502,710
14. Grand Rapids: 482,599
15. Toledo: 454,859

Mile 20
1. Chicago: 4,738,903
2. Detroit: 2,663,489
3. Minneapolis: 2,542,565
4. St. Louis: 1,878,365
5. Kansas City: 1,618,823
6. Cincinnati: 1,592,905
7. Cleveland: 1,549,799
8. Indianapolis: 1,511,675
9. Columbus: 1,432,067
10. Milwaukee: 1,317,062
11. Omaha: 788,498
12. Dayton: 757,623
13. Akron: 673,654
14. Grand Rapids: 602,220
15. Toledo: 558,219

Columbus seems to hold its own from Mile 2 through about Mile 15 or 16, and then begins to fall back as full metro populations begin to take shape.

So now we know the exact populations by distance, but what about how those are changing over time? Here are the same miles and their total change from 2000 to 2010.

Aggregate Change 2000-2010
By Mile 1

1. Chicago: 48,288
2. Minneapolis: 7,969
3. St. Louis: 5,881
4. Cleveland: 3,174
5. Milwaukee: 2,250
6. Kansas City: 1,009
7. Omaha: -53
8. Columbus: -1,049
9. Detroit: -3,601
10. Indianapolis: -4,739
11. Grand Rapids: -5,236
12. Cincinnati: -6,112
13. Akron: -8,916
14. Toledo: -10,118
15. Dayton: -10,165

By Mile 2
1. Chicago: 31,824
2. Minneapolis: 3,462
3. Omaha: 408
4. St. Louis: -1,523
5. Milwaukee: -2,399
6. Cleveland: -3,388
7. Kansas City: -4,807
8. Columbus: -6,004
9. Grand Rapids: -9,279
10. Detroit: -11,019
11. Indianapolis: -15,532
12. Cincinnati: -15,749
13. Akron: -15,874
14. Toledo: -16,771
15. Dayton: -20,826

By Mile 3
1. Chicago: 13,414
2. Minneapolis: 257
3. Omaha: -28
4. Milwaukee: -4,550
5. Columbus: -8,509
6. Grand Rapids: -8,818
7. St. Louis: -12,153
8. Kansas City: -14,528
9. Akron: -18,107
10. Toledo: -21,469
11. Cleveland: -23,287
12. Indianapolis: -23,973
13. Cincinnati: -24,548
14. Dayton: -27,652
15. Detroit: -29,905

By Mile 4
1. Minneapolis: 2,381
2. Omaha: 1,376
3. Milwaukee: -4,943
4. Grand Rapids: -8,612
5. Columbus: -9,650
6. Chicago: -12,130
7. Kansas City: -17,813
8. Akron: -18,533
9. Toledo: -22,039
10. St. Louis: -22,415
11. Indianapolis: -27,912
12. Dayton: -31,173
13. Cincinnati: -32,342
14. Cleveland: -41,948
15. Detroit: -61,209

By Mile 5
1. Omaha: 1,800
2. Minneapolis: 1,798
3. Milwaukee: -4,090
4. Columbus: -7,924
5. Grand Rapids: -8,112
6. Akron: -19,405
7. Kansas City: -21,986
8. Toledo: -26,094
9. Indianapolis: -28,401
10. Dayton: -33,066
11. St. Louis: 35,038
12. Cincinnati: -38,698
13. Chicago: -48,898
14. Cleveland: -70,067
15. Detroit: -89,973

By Mile 10
1. Columbus: 59,873
2. Indianapolis: 37,721
3. Omaha: 25,330
4. Grand Rapids: 10,284
5. Minneapolis: -1,544
6. Milwaukee: -2,369
7. Akron: -6,207
8. Dayton: -17,223
9. Kansas City: -19,048
10. Toledo: -21,636
11. Cincinnati: -39,767
12. St. Louis: -58,549
13. Cleveland: -120,862
14. Chicago: -172,571
15. Detroit: -239,616

By Mile 20
1. Indianapolis: 213,270
2. Columbus: 183,014
3. Kansas City: 144,634
4. Minneapolis: 141,652
5. Omaha: 97,813
6. Cincinnati: 46,813
7. Milwaukee: 27,876
8. Grand Rapids: 24,505
9. Akron: 8,625
10. Dayton: -7,484
11. Toledo: -9,112
12. St. Louis: -21,917
13. Cleveland: -88,522
14. Chicago: -215,802
15. Detroit: -291,258

Metro Area Demographics provides a greater picture of the Columbus metro’s population and demographic data.