Ever wonder how Columbus got so big in area? Its city limits stretch into parts of other counties and include about a third of Franklin County. Today, it has a reputation for annexing its way to growth, but how true is this?
Well, 50 years ago, it was more or less true. Today, not so much. Aggressive annexation began in Columbus in 1953, when Mayor Maynard “Jack” Sensenbrenner began his policy of requiring annexation into the city if communities wanted city water service. Between 1953 and 1960, the area size of the city more than doubled, and that rate continued through the 1960s and 1970s, even after Sensenbrenner was no longer mayor. After 1980, annexation rates gradually began to decline. As the chart above shows, you can see the rapid rate of growth during the 1950s-1970s and the decline in more recent decades. Through the first 5 years of the 2010s, Columbus is on pace to add fewer than 3 square miles by 2020. Despite that fact, the city’s annual population growth since 2010 is exceeding the average annual growth of any decade during the mass annexation years. This strongly supports that the dynamic, and indeed, the story of Columbus’ growth is no longer about “fake” growth through the addition of existing land and population, but rather though the influx of new residents from outside of the city limits altogether. This is helping to gradually raise the city’s population density, which exceeded Cincinnati’s last year, as the chart below shows, along with a few other Columbus peers.
Millennials- those born roughly between 1981 and 2001- are big news these days. They are the largest generation ever in terms of total numbers (exceeding 76 million), and their choices are already having big impacts on everything from housing to the economy. I wanted to look at Columbus and its peers to see where it ranks in terms of attracting these young professionals.
For the comparison, I looked at metro areas of 1.5-2.5 million as well as major Midwest metros and then used their core cities to get the numbers. I used the age group of 25-34 specifically, as that is usually the number most often cited in the news.
Rank of Total Population Aged 25-34 2005_______________________2010___________________2014 1. Chicago: 463,236_______1. Chicago: 510,042_______1. Chicago: 525,381 2. San Antonio: 180,981_____2. San Antonio: 200,645____2. San Antonio: 226,711 3. Austin: 137,523_________3. Austin: 162,247_________3. Austin: 199,838 4. San Jose, CA: 133,144___4. Columbus: 147,584______4. Columbus: 170,759 5. Columbus: 131,641______5. San Jose, CA: 142,551___5. San Jose, CA: 153,690 6. Indianapolis: 114,532_____6. Indianapolis: 133,088____6. Charlotte, NC: 141,869 7. Detroit: 110,759_________7. Charlotte, NC: 127,539___7. Indianapolis: 140,491 8. Charlotte, NC: 100,025____8. Portland, OR: 113,210___8. Portland, OR: 116,109 9. Portland, OR: 90,023_____9. Milwaukee: 97,359______9. Milwaukee: 100,205 10. Las Vegas: 84,418______10. Detroit: 85,023________10. Minneapolis: 90,662 11. Milwaukee: 82,060______11. Minneapolis: 81,532____11. Las Vegas: 90,441 12. Sacramento, CA: 75,497___12. Las Vegas: 81,212____12. Detroit: 89,843 13. Minneapolis: 74,208___13. Sacramento, CA: 78,527__13. Sacramento, CA: 84,013 14. Kansas City, MO: 68,060__14. Kansas City: 73,872__14. Kansas City, MO: 79,262 15. Virginia Beach: 60,749__15. Virginia Beach: 67,614__15. Virginia Beach: 75,543 16. Omaha, NE: 56,248____16. Omaha, NE: 62,396_____16. Omaha, NE: 71,040 17. Wichita, KS: 52,426____17. St. Louis: 57,627_______17. Pittsburgh: 62,473 18. Cleveland: 50,558_____18. Wichita, KS: 56,737_____18. St. Louis: 61,718 19. St. Louis: 48,137______19. Cleveland: 54,428______19. Wichita, KS: 58,334 20. Cincinnati: 44,945_____20. Pittsburgh: 51,109______20. Cleveland: 56,134 21. Toledo: 43,134_______21. St. Paul, MN: 50,107_____21. St. Paul, MN: 54,464 22. Orlando: 40,846______22. Cincinnati: 49,067_______22. Orlando: 54,395 23. St. Paul, MN: 39,676__23. Orlando: 48,102________23. Cincinnati: 54,247 24. Lincoln, NE: 38,893___24. Madison, WI: 44,662_____24. Madison, WI: 44,835 25. Madison, WI: 38,826___25. Lincoln, NE: 42,034_____25. Toledo: 43,661 26. Pittsburgh: 38,744____26. Toledo: 41,580_________26. Lincoln, NE: 40,071 27. Grand Rapids: 35,287__27. Fort Wayne, IN: 35,193__27: Grand Rapids: 38,922 28. Des Moines: 32,640__28. Providence, RI: 31,044__28. Fort Wayne, IN: 37,741 29. Fort Wayne, IN: 31,738__29. Grand Rapids: 30,963__29. Des Moines: 33,857 30. Akron: 30,436_______30. Des Moines: 30,376_____30. Providence, RI: 31,902 31. Providence, RI: 29,307__31. Akron: 27,446________31. Akron: 28,207 32. Dayton: 18,591_______32. Dayton: 20,278________32. Dayton: 21,096 33. Youngstown: 8,505____33. Youngstown: 8,484_____33. Youngstown: 8,468
So Columbus ranks highly among total population in the 25-34 age group. But what about growth?
Total Growth Rank in 25-34 Population 2005-2014 1. Austin, TX: 62,315 2. Chicago: 62,145 3. San Antonio, TX: 45,730 4. Charlotte, NC: 41,844 5. Columbus: 39,118 6. Portland, OR: 26,086 7. Indianapolis: 25,959 8. Pittsburgh: 23,729 9. San Jose, CA: 20,546 10. Milwaukee, WI: 18,145 11. Minneapolis, MN: 16,454 12. Virginia Beach, VA: 14,794 13. St. Paul, MN: 14,788 14. Omaha, NE: 14,612 15. St. Louis, MO: 13,581 16. Orlando, FL: 13,549 17. Kansas City, MO: 11,202 18. Cincinnati: 9,302 19. Sacramento, CA: 8,516 20. Las Vegas, NV: 6,023 21. Madison, WI: 6,009 22. Fort Wayne, IN: 6,003 23. Wichita, KS: 5,908 24. Cleveland: 5,576 25. Grand Rapids, MI: 3,635 26. Providence, RI: 2,595 27. Dayton: 2,505 28. Des Moines, IA: 1,217 29. Lincoln, NE: 1,178 30. Toledo: 527 31. Youngstown: -37 32. Akron: -2,229 33. Detroit: -20,736
Again, Columbus ranks near the top during this period. What about more recently, since 2010?
Total Growth Rank of 25-34 Population 2010-2014 1. Austin: 37,591 2. San Antonio: 26,066 3. Columbus: 23,175 4. Chicago: 15,339 5. Charlotte: 14,330 6. Pittsburgh: 11,364 7. San Jose: 11,139 8. Las Vegas: 9,229 9. Minneapolis: 9,130 10. Omaha: 8,644 11. Grand Rapids: 7,959 12. Virginia Beach: 7,929 13. Indianapolis: 7,403 14. Orlando: 6,293 15. Sacramento: 5,486 16. Kansas City: 5,390 17. Cincinnati: 5,180 18. Detroit: 4,820 19. St. Paul: 4,357 20. St. Louis: 4,091 21. Des Moines: 3,481 22. Portland: 2,899 23. Milwaukee: 2,846 24. Fort Wayne: 2,548 25. Toledo: 2,081 26. Cleveland: 1,706 27. Wichita: 1,597 28. Providence: 858 29. Dayton: 818 30. Akron: 761 31. Madison: 173 32. Youngstown: -16 33. Lincoln: -1,963
So Columbus is doing even better since 2010 than it did in the earlier period and attracts significantly more Millennials in the 25-34 age group than cities often cited for this very metric.
Next, let’s look at percentage growth, as city size can affect this.
Total Percent Growth 2005-2014 in 25-34 Population 1. Pittsburgh: +61.25% 2. Austin: +45.31% 3. Charlotte: +41.83% 4. St. Paul: +37.27% 5. Orlando: +33.17% 6. Columbus: +29.72% 7. Portland: +28.98% 8. St. Louis: +28.21% 9. Omaha: +25.89% 10. San Antonio: +25.27% 11. Virginia Beach: +24.35% 12. Indianapolis: +22.67% 13. Minneapolis: +22.17% 14. Milwaukee: +22.11% 15. Cincinnati: +20.70% 16. Fort Wayne: +18.91% 17. Kansas City: +16.46% 18. Madison: +15.48% 19. San Jose: +15.43% 20. Dayton: +13.47% 21. Chicago: +13.42% 22. Sacramento: +11.28% 23. Wichita: +11.27% 24. Cleveland: +11.03% 25. Grand Rapids: +10.30% 26. Providence: +8.85% 27. Las Vegas: +7.13% 28. Des Moines: +3.73% 29. Lincoln: +3.03% 30. Toledo: +1.22% 31. Youngstown: -0.44% 32. Akron: -7.32% 33. Detroit: -18.75%
So Columbus again performs well in percentage growth, despite having one of the largest populations in the age group. It performs even better in the period since 2010, coming in at 3rd place.
Finally, now that we know the totals and the growth, what is the % of total city population that the 25-34 age group makes up?
25-34 % of Total City Population 2014 1. Minneapolis: 22.27% 2. Austin: 21.89% 3. Orlando: 20.73% 4. Pittsburgh: 20.45% 5. Columbus: 20.42% 6. Grand Rapids: 20.08% 7. St. Louis: 19.44% 8. Chicago: 19.30% 9. Portland: 18.74% 10. St. Paul: 18.30% 11. Madison: 18.25% 12. Cincinnati: 18.19% 13. Providence: 17.81% 14. Charlotte: 17.52% 15. Sacramento: 17.32% 16. Kansas City: 16.84% 17. Virginia Beach: 16.75% 18. Milwaukee: 16.71% 19. Indianapolis: 16.50% 20. Des Moines: 16.19% 21. Omaha: 15.91% 22. San Antonio: 15.78% 23. Toledo: 15.54% 24. San Jose: 15.13% 25. Wichita: 15.02% 26. Dayton: 14.96% 27. Fort Wayne: 14.74% 28. Las Vegas: 14.74% 29. Lincoln: 14.68% 30. Cleveland: 14.41% 31. Akron: 14.26% 32. Detroit: 13.21% 33. Youngstown: 13.02%
And here’s a simple % of population projection for just 4 years from now, 2018, provided the 25-34 population grows the same between 2014-2018 as it did 2010-2014. 1. Pittsburgh: 24.18% 2. Grand Rapids: 23.71% 3. Austin: 23.38% 4. Minneapolis: 23.27% 5. Columbus: 22.16% 6. Orlando: 21.34% 7. St. Louis: 20.82% 8. Cincinnati: 19.85% 9. Chicago: 19.70% 10. St. Paul: 19.05% 11. Providence: 18.20% 12. Portland: 18.14% 13. Virginia Beach: 18.1% 14. Sacramento: 17.84% 15. Charlotte: 17.67% 16. Kansas City: 17.64% 17. Des Moines: 17.50% 18. Madison: 17.40% 19. Milwaukee: 17.07% 20. Indianapolis: 16.85% 21. Omaha: 16.61% 22. Toledo: 16.59% 23. San Antonio: 16.52% 24. Fort Wayne: 15.61% 25. Las Vegas: 15.59% 26. Dayton: 15.27% 27. San Jose: 15.24% 28. Wichita: 15.23% 29. Cleveland: 15.08% 30. Akron: 14.73% 31. Detroit: 14.48% 32. Youngstown: 13.35% 33. Lincoln: 13.13%
Columbus has an existing large population of the 25-34 age demographic, and looks to be one of the strongest performers into the near future. Some would ask why that would be considering that Columbus transit is woefully lacking and has a reputation (very undeservedly, in my opinion) of being suburban- characteristics that Millennials supposedly almost universally reject. Perhaps the bottom line is that economics trump all other desires. Cost of living and employment tend to be higher up the list than rail lines, and Columbus has both a strong economy and relatively low COL. Whatever the case may be, Columbus seems to be doing something right. Continue this look at this population in Part 2.
