Millennials- those born roughly between 1981 and 2001- are big news these days. They are the largest generation ever in terms of total numbers (exceeding 76 million), and their choices are already having big impacts on everything from housing to the economy. I wanted to look at Columbus and its peers to see where it ranks in terms of attracting these young professionals.
For the comparison, I looked at metro areas of 1.5-2.5 million as well as major Midwest metros and then used their core cities to get the numbers. I used the age group of 25-34 specifically, as that is usually the number most often cited in the news.
Rank of Total Population Aged 25-34
2005_______________________2010___________________2014
1. Chicago: 463,236_______1. Chicago: 510,042_______1. Chicago: 525,381
2. San Antonio: 180,981_____2. San Antonio: 200,645____2. San Antonio: 226,711
3. Austin: 137,523_________3. Austin: 162,247_________3. Austin: 199,838
4. San Jose, CA: 133,144___4. Columbus: 147,584______4. Columbus: 170,759
5. Columbus: 131,641______5. San Jose, CA: 142,551___5. San Jose, CA: 153,690
6. Indianapolis: 114,532_____6. Indianapolis: 133,088____6. Charlotte, NC: 141,869
7. Detroit: 110,759_________7. Charlotte, NC: 127,539___7. Indianapolis: 140,491
8. Charlotte, NC: 100,025____8. Portland, OR: 113,210___8. Portland, OR: 116,109
9. Portland, OR: 90,023_____9. Milwaukee: 97,359______9. Milwaukee: 100,205
10. Las Vegas: 84,418______10. Detroit: 85,023________10. Minneapolis: 90,662
11. Milwaukee: 82,060______11. Minneapolis: 81,532____11. Las Vegas: 90,441
12. Sacramento, CA: 75,497___12. Las Vegas: 81,212____12. Detroit: 89,843
13. Minneapolis: 74,208___13. Sacramento, CA: 78,527__13. Sacramento, CA: 84,013
14. Kansas City, MO: 68,060__14. Kansas City: 73,872__14. Kansas City, MO: 79,262
15. Virginia Beach: 60,749__15. Virginia Beach: 67,614__15. Virginia Beach: 75,543
16. Omaha, NE: 56,248____16. Omaha, NE: 62,396_____16. Omaha, NE: 71,040
17. Wichita, KS: 52,426____17. St. Louis: 57,627_______17. Pittsburgh: 62,473
18. Cleveland: 50,558_____18. Wichita, KS: 56,737_____18. St. Louis: 61,718
19. St. Louis: 48,137______19. Cleveland: 54,428______19. Wichita, KS: 58,334
20. Cincinnati: 44,945_____20. Pittsburgh: 51,109______20. Cleveland: 56,134
21. Toledo: 43,134_______21. St. Paul, MN: 50,107_____21. St. Paul, MN: 54,464
22. Orlando: 40,846______22. Cincinnati: 49,067_______22. Orlando: 54,395
23. St. Paul, MN: 39,676__23. Orlando: 48,102________23. Cincinnati: 54,247
24. Lincoln, NE: 38,893___24. Madison, WI: 44,662_____24. Madison, WI: 44,835
25. Madison, WI: 38,826___25. Lincoln, NE: 42,034_____25. Toledo: 43,661
26. Pittsburgh: 38,744____26. Toledo: 41,580_________26. Lincoln, NE: 40,071
27. Grand Rapids: 35,287__27. Fort Wayne, IN: 35,193__27: Grand Rapids: 38,922
28. Des Moines: 32,640__28. Providence, RI: 31,044__28. Fort Wayne, IN: 37,741
29. Fort Wayne, IN: 31,738__29. Grand Rapids: 30,963__29. Des Moines: 33,857
30. Akron: 30,436_______30. Des Moines: 30,376_____30. Providence, RI: 31,902
31. Providence, RI: 29,307__31. Akron: 27,446________31. Akron: 28,207
32. Dayton: 18,591_______32. Dayton: 20,278________32. Dayton: 21,096
33. Youngstown: 8,505____33. Youngstown: 8,484_____33. Youngstown: 8,468
So Columbus ranks highly among total population in the 25-34 age group. But what about growth?
Total Growth Rank in 25-34 Population 2005-2014
1. Austin, TX: 62,315
2. Chicago: 62,145
3. San Antonio, TX: 45,730
4. Charlotte, NC: 41,844
5. Columbus: 39,118
6. Portland, OR: 26,086
7. Indianapolis: 25,959
8. Pittsburgh: 23,729
9. San Jose, CA: 20,546
10. Milwaukee, WI: 18,145
11. Minneapolis, MN: 16,454
12. Virginia Beach, VA: 14,794
13. St. Paul, MN: 14,788
14. Omaha, NE: 14,612
15. St. Louis, MO: 13,581
16. Orlando, FL: 13,549
17. Kansas City, MO: 11,202
18. Cincinnati: 9,302
19. Sacramento, CA: 8,516
20. Las Vegas, NV: 6,023
21. Madison, WI: 6,009
22. Fort Wayne, IN: 6,003
23. Wichita, KS: 5,908
24. Cleveland: 5,576
25. Grand Rapids, MI: 3,635
26. Providence, RI: 2,595
27. Dayton: 2,505
28. Des Moines, IA: 1,217
29. Lincoln, NE: 1,178
30. Toledo: 527
31. Youngstown: -37
32. Akron: -2,229
33. Detroit: -20,736
Again, Columbus ranks near the top during this period. What about more recently, since 2010?
Total Growth Rank of 25-34 Population 2010-2014
1. Austin: 37,591
2. San Antonio: 26,066
3. Columbus: 23,175
4. Chicago: 15,339
5. Charlotte: 14,330
6. Pittsburgh: 11,364
7. San Jose: 11,139
8. Las Vegas: 9,229
9. Minneapolis: 9,130
10. Omaha: 8,644
11. Grand Rapids: 7,959
12. Virginia Beach: 7,929
13. Indianapolis: 7,403
14. Orlando: 6,293
15. Sacramento: 5,486
16. Kansas City: 5,390
17. Cincinnati: 5,180
18. Detroit: 4,820
19. St. Paul: 4,357
20. St. Louis: 4,091
21. Des Moines: 3,481
22. Portland: 2,899
23. Milwaukee: 2,846
24. Fort Wayne: 2,548
25. Toledo: 2,081
26. Cleveland: 1,706
27. Wichita: 1,597
28. Providence: 858
29. Dayton: 818
30. Akron: 761
31. Madison: 173
32. Youngstown: -16
33. Lincoln: -1,963
So Columbus is doing even better since 2010 than it did in the earlier period and attracts significantly more Millennials in the 25-34 age group than cities often cited for this very metric.
Next, let’s look at percentage growth, as city size can affect this.
Total Percent Growth 2005-2014 in 25-34 Population
1. Pittsburgh: +61.25%
2. Austin: +45.31%
3. Charlotte: +41.83%
4. St. Paul: +37.27%
5. Orlando: +33.17%
6. Columbus: +29.72%
7. Portland: +28.98%
8. St. Louis: +28.21%
9. Omaha: +25.89%
10. San Antonio: +25.27%
11. Virginia Beach: +24.35%
12. Indianapolis: +22.67%
13. Minneapolis: +22.17%
14. Milwaukee: +22.11%
15. Cincinnati: +20.70%
16. Fort Wayne: +18.91%
17. Kansas City: +16.46%
18. Madison: +15.48%
19. San Jose: +15.43%
20. Dayton: +13.47%
21. Chicago: +13.42%
22. Sacramento: +11.28%
23. Wichita: +11.27%
24. Cleveland: +11.03%
25. Grand Rapids: +10.30%
26. Providence: +8.85%
27. Las Vegas: +7.13%
28. Des Moines: +3.73%
29. Lincoln: +3.03%
30. Toledo: +1.22%
31. Youngstown: -0.44%
32. Akron: -7.32%
33. Detroit: -18.75%
So Columbus again performs well in percentage growth, despite having one of the largest populations in the age group. It performs even better in the period since 2010, coming in at 3rd place.
Finally, now that we know the totals and the growth, what is the % of total city population that the 25-34 age group makes up?
25-34 % of Total City Population 2014
1. Minneapolis: 22.27%
2. Austin: 21.89%
3. Orlando: 20.73%
4. Pittsburgh: 20.45%
5. Columbus: 20.42%
6. Grand Rapids: 20.08%
7. St. Louis: 19.44%
8. Chicago: 19.30%
9. Portland: 18.74%
10. St. Paul: 18.30%
11. Madison: 18.25%
12. Cincinnati: 18.19%
13. Providence: 17.81%
14. Charlotte: 17.52%
15. Sacramento: 17.32%
16. Kansas City: 16.84%
17. Virginia Beach: 16.75%
18. Milwaukee: 16.71%
19. Indianapolis: 16.50%
20. Des Moines: 16.19%
21. Omaha: 15.91%
22. San Antonio: 15.78%
23. Toledo: 15.54%
24. San Jose: 15.13%
25. Wichita: 15.02%
26. Dayton: 14.96%
27. Fort Wayne: 14.74%
28. Las Vegas: 14.74%
29. Lincoln: 14.68%
30. Cleveland: 14.41%
31. Akron: 14.26%
32. Detroit: 13.21%
33. Youngstown: 13.02%
And here’s a simple % of population projection for just 4 years from now, 2018, provided the 25-34 population grows the same between 2014-2018 as it did 2010-2014.
1. Pittsburgh: 24.18%
2. Grand Rapids: 23.71%
3. Austin: 23.38%
4. Minneapolis: 23.27%
5. Columbus: 22.16%
6. Orlando: 21.34%
7. St. Louis: 20.82%
8. Cincinnati: 19.85%
9. Chicago: 19.70%
10. St. Paul: 19.05%
11. Providence: 18.20%
12. Portland: 18.14%
13. Virginia Beach: 18.1%
14. Sacramento: 17.84%
15. Charlotte: 17.67%
16. Kansas City: 17.64%
17. Des Moines: 17.50%
18. Madison: 17.40%
19. Milwaukee: 17.07%
20. Indianapolis: 16.85%
21. Omaha: 16.61%
22. Toledo: 16.59%
23. San Antonio: 16.52%
24. Fort Wayne: 15.61%
25. Las Vegas: 15.59%
26. Dayton: 15.27%
27. San Jose: 15.24%
28. Wichita: 15.23%
29. Cleveland: 15.08%
30. Akron: 14.73%
31. Detroit: 14.48%
32. Youngstown: 13.35%
33. Lincoln: 13.13%
Columbus has an existing large population of the 25-34 age demographic, and looks to be one of the strongest performers into the near future.
Some would ask why that would be considering that Columbus transit is woefully lacking and has a reputation (very undeservedly, in my opinion) of being suburban- characteristics that Millennials supposedly almost universally reject. Perhaps the bottom line is that economics trump all other desires. Cost of living and employment tend to be higher up the list than rail lines, and Columbus has both a strong economy and relatively low COL. Whatever the case may be, Columbus seems to be doing something right. Continue this look at this population in Part 2.
