2019 Ohio City Population Estimates



The Census has just released estimates for cities, towns and villages for July 1, 2019.

Ohio Top 30 Largest Cities by Rank
Census 2010————————————–July 1, 2019
1. Columbus: 787,033————————1. Columbus: 898,553
2. Cleveland: 396,815————————2. Cleveland: 381,009
3. Cincinnati: 296,943——————-—–3. Cincinnati: 303,940
4. Toledo: 287,208———————-——4. Toledo: 272,779
5. Akron: 199,110————————-—–5. Akron: 197,597
6. Dayton: 141,527—————————-6. Dayton: 140,407
7. Parma: 81,601—————————––7. Parma: 78,103
8. Canton: 73,007———————–——-8. Canton: 70,447
9. Youngstown: 66,982————————9. Youngstown: 65,469
10. Lorain: 64,097——————–———10. Lorain: 63,855
11. Hamilton: 62,477——————–——11. Hamilton: 62,082
12. Springfield: 60,608————————12. Springfield: 58,877
13. Kettering: 56,163————————-–13. Kettering: 54,855
14. Elyria: 54,533—————————-—14. Elyria: 53,757
15. Lakewood: 52,131———————––15. Newark: 50,315
16. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,652——————16. Lakewood: 49,678
17. Euclid: 48,920————————–—–17. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,106
18. Middletown: 48,694————————18. Dublin: 49,037
19. Mansfield: 47,821———————-—–19. Middletown: 48,807
20. Newark: 47,573————————–—-20. Beavercreek: 47,741
21. Mentor: 47,159—————————––21. Mentor: 47,262
22. Cleveland Heights: 46,121—————-22. Mansfield: 46,599
23. Beavercreek: 45,193——————–—-23. Euclid: 46,550
24. Strongsville: 44,750————————–24. Strongsville: 44,660
25. Fairfield: 42,510——————————25. Cleveland Heights: 43,992
26. Dublin: 41,751———————————26. Fairfield: 42,558
27. Warren: 41,557—————————-—-27. Grove City: 41,820
28. Findlay 41,202—————————–—-28. Delaware: 41,283
29. Lancaster: 38,780—————————–29. Findlay: 41,225
30. Lima: 38,771———————————–30. Westerville: 41,103

In 2010, 4 Columbus Metro communities were in the top 30.  By last year, 6 were, with more poised to enter the list in the coming years.

Top 30 Ohio Cities with the Highest Total Growth Census 2010 to July 1, 2019
1. Columbus: +111,520
2. Hilliard: +8,099
3. Dublin: +7,286
4. Cincinnati: +6,997
5. Delaware: +6,530
6. Grove City: +6,245
7. Westerville: +4,983
8. North Ridgeville: +4,927
9. Pickerington: +3,867
10. New Albany: +3,209
11. Mason: +3,158
12. Newark: +2,742
13. Marysville: +2,573
14. Beavercreek: +2,548
15. Wadsworth: +2,479
16. Reynoldsburg: +2,434
17. Gahanna: +2,235
18. Avon: +2,206
19. Harrison: +1,999
20. Sunbury: +1,978
21. Avon Lake: +1,923
22. Powell: +1,875
23. Grandview Heights: +1,797
24. Oxford: +1,739
25. Lancaster: +1,725
26. Canal Winchester: +1,717
27. Upper Arlington: +1,595
28. Monroe: +1,573
29. Fairborn: +1,524
30. Springboro: +1,522

The Columbus Metro had 18 of the top 10, including 8 of the top 10.

Top 30 Ohio Cites with the Highest Total Growth July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019
1. Columbus: +7,684
2. Cincinnati: +1,663
3. Delaware: +1,356
4. Pickerington: +932
5. Westerville: +771
6. Youngstown: +609
7. North Ridgeville: +580
8. Sunbury: +483
9. Marysville: +471
10. Dublin: +443
11. Beavercreek: +415
12. Warren: +381
13. Newark: +314
14. Wadsworth: +291
15. Mason: +290
16. Harrison: +274
17. Grove City: +247
18. Oxford: +239
19. Miamisburg: +231
20. Troy: +229
21. Canal Winchester: +220
22. Xenia: +219
23. Cedarville: +209
24. Hilliard: +201
25. Fairborn: +182
26. Piqua: +182
27. Avon: +170
28. Plain City: +168
29. Aurora: +157
30. Springboro: +157

2018 to 2019, Columbus had 12 cities in the top 30. This is not necessarily indicating a slowdown in growth within the metro. The final year before a decennial census, population estimates tend to be used for final adjustments. This means that if a city is thought to have been estimated too high or too low through the decade, the final estimate year is adjusted accordingly and not necessarily according to true growth. The point of estimates is to get a snapshot of the population at the time of the estimate, but they are constantly being changed every time a new estimate comes out. This usually leaves the final estimate year as showing the slowest growth. This was true for 2008-2009 as well.

Finally, here is every Columbus Metro community ranked and the population change 2010-2019.
1. Columbus: 898,533 +111,520
2. Newark: 50,315 +2,742
3. Dublin: 49,037 +7,286
4. Grove City: 41,820 +6,245
5. Delaware: 41,283 +6,530
6. Westerville: 41,103 +4,983
7. Lancaster: 40,505 +1,725
8. Reynoldsburg: 38,327 +2,434
9. Hilliard: 36,534 +8,099
10. Gahanna: 35,483 +2,235
11. Upper Arlington: 35,366 +1,595
12. Marysville: 24,667 +2,573
13. Pickerington: 22,158 +3,867
14. Whitehall: 18,926 +864
15. Pataskala: 15,883 +921
16. Worthington: 14,692 +1,117
17. Circleville: 14,050 +736
18. Bexley: 13,770 +713
19. Powell: 13,375 +1,875
20. New Albany: 10,933 +3,209
21. Heath: 10,942 +632
22. London: 10,328 +424
23. Canal Winchester: 8,818 +1,717
24. Grandview Heights: 8,333 +1,797
25. Logan: 7,020 -132
26. Sunbury: 6,367 +1,978
27. Granville: 5,916 +270
28. Groveport: 5,621 +258
29. Obetz: 5,196 +664
30. Johnstown: 5,098 +466
31. New Lexington: 4,671 -60
32. Plain City: 4,586 +361
33. West Jefferson: 4,431 +209
34. Ashville: 4,385 +288
35. Baltimore: 3,004 +38
36. Buckeye Lake: 2,871 +125
37. Crooksville: 2,482 -52
38. Richwood: 2,480 +251
39. Hebron: 2,477 +141
40. Utica: 2,260 +128
41. Cardington: 2,071 +24
42. South Bloomfield: 1,979 +235
43. Roseville: 1,839 -13
44. Lithopolis: 1,796 +690
45. Mount Sterling: 1,793 +11
46. Commercial Point: 1,679 +97
47. Ashley: 1,608 +278
48. Somerset: 1,455 -26
49. Bremen: 1,452 +27
50. Minerva Park: 1,321 +49
51. Hanover: 1,204 +283
52. Millersport: 1,074 +30
53. Williamsport: 1,074 +51
54. Thornville: 1,008 +17
55. Urbancrest: 993 +33
56. Pleasantville: 959 -1
57. Milford Center: 902 +110
58. New Holland: 851 +50
59. Shawnee Hills: 820 +139
60. Junction City: 805 -14
61. Ostrander: 749 +106
62. Galena: 742 +89
63. Amanda: 738 +1
64. Marble Cliff: 732 +159
65. New Straitsville: 710 -12
66. Shawnee: 642 -13
67. Valleyview: 638 +18
68. Thurston: 604 +0
69. Corning: 568 -15
70. Buchtel: 567 +9
71. Carroll: 566 +42
72. Riverlea: 565 +20
73. Stoutsvlle: 565: +5
74. Kirkersville: 552 +27
75. Alexandria: 542 +25
76. Laurelville: 503 -24
77. Edison: 443 +6
78. Murray City: 435 -14
79. Sugar Grove: 426 +0
80. Hartford: 410 +13
81. St. Louisville: 386 +13
82. South Solon: 364 +9
83. Harrisburg: 341 +21
84. Marengo: 341 -1
85. Midway: 328 +1
86. Rushville: 309 +7
87. Magnetic Springs: 298 +30
88. Tarlton: 290 +8
89. Orient: 277 -1
90. Fulton: 255 -3
91. Lockbourne: 249 +12
92. Chesterville: 232 +4
93. Darbyville: 229 +7
94. Unionville Center: 229 -4
95. Gratiot: 220 -1
96. Glenford: 169 -4
97. Sparta: 160 -1
98. Hemlock: 152 -3
99. West Rushville: 143 +9
100. Brice: 120 +6
101. Rendville: 36 +0



2011 Census Tract Estimates



While I wouldn’t normally post census tract estimates because I really don’t know what their reliability is, I thought it might be an interesting exercise.

I only looked at those tracts that made up the original 1950 boundaries as well as some of the adjacent areas. I won’t go into too much detail, but…

In 2010, only 20 of the 78 tracts I looked at were growing. Well, specifically, only 20 grew during the 2000-2010 period, not just in 2010 alone. So several more could’ve been starting to recover in 2010, but since it measured the whole decade, it might still show up as a loss. In any case, the 2011 estimates are interesting just because they show a much different picture.

If I use the exact estimate used, 34 of the 78 tracts were growing in 2011, a significant improvement. However, some of the estimates were hard to understand where they came from. For example, they had Downtown tracts, which have had rapid growth the last decade, as declining in population for 2011, even while more and more residential units are built and more people move into the area. Also, they showed some tracts gaining population when the long-term trend is for significant loss and no reason to see that reversing.

So using the margin of error as a guide, I went back over them and did my own estimates. Of the 78 tracts, I only did my own for 14, as they were the only ones I felt didn’t match the reality on the ground or the long-term trends. With those changes, 38 of the 78 were growing, a slight increase of the official 34.

If we use the official estimates, the total population for the 78 tracts was 232,297, a loss of 2,285 since 2010. If we use my estimates, the population would be 237,806, or an increase of 3,224. So what’s the real story? Well, new 2012 tract estimates will be coming out soon. When they do, I will compare and see what, if any, updates should be made. The only real way to know, however, is to wait until 2020 with the next census. Still, until that time, it’s fun to look at the numbers and see if the urban core is recovering in the same way that cities and towns are in and around Franklin County.

2012 City Population Estimates and Urban vs. Suburban Trends



I posted the 2012 city estimates yesterday, and within them may be an interesting trend that has long-term implications for Columbus.

A lot of the talk in the news in recent years has been how urban core cities are seeing a comeback of sorts. I’ve made mention of it several times, myself. However, there is some disagreement between urban proponents and suburban proponents about what’s really going on, and that disagreement seems to focus mostly around if the city is growing faster than the suburbs, and if so, if that trend can be sustained.

Looking over the estimates, I noticed something that may support the urban back-to-the-city argument, at least in Columbus. What I noticed was that those villages/towns/cities that were growing tended to be clustered closer to the urban core of the metro than those that were losing population.

I first gathered the data on the Columbus metro area’s 99 incorporated places, ranging in population from 36 on up to Columbus’ 809,798. I then measured the distance between Columbus’ Downtown center and the center of all 99 places. I then broke them up into increments of about 5 miles each. Here is some of what I found.

Average Total Population Growth by Place 2010-2012 by Distance from Columbus’ Center
0-4.9 Miles: 3,962.8
5-9.9 Miles: 438.4
10-14.9 Miles: 342.8
15-19.9 Miles: 26.5
20-24.9 Miles: 148.9
25+ Miles: 10.5

What this says, is that for the most part, the closer a place is to the center, the more total average growth it’s had since 2010. While the 0-4.9 mile distance is somewhat skewed because it includes Columbus’ growth, there is also a significant drop-off beyond 15 miles from the center.

Next, I looked at all the places that saw either 0 population change or a loss during the 2010-2012 period. Again, it was separated by the distance from Columbus’ center.

0-4.9 Miles: 0 of 6, or 0.0%
5-9.9 Miles: 0 of 12, or 0.0%
10-14.9 Miles: 1 of 12, or 8.3%
15-19.9 Miles: 2 of 8, or 25.0%
20-24.9 Miles: 2 of 10, or 20.0%
25+ Miles: 21 of 51, or 41.2%

What this shows is that the further the distance away from the center, in general, the more places there were that were stagnant or lost population since 2010.

Finally, I looked at the top 15 total population increases of all places from 2010-2012, as well as their distance from Columbus’ center.
1. Columbus (obviously): +22,765- 0 Miles
2. Hilliard: +2,129- 9.9 Miles
3. Grove City: +1,257- 7.4 Miles
4. Delaware: +1,172- 23.6 Miles
5. Dublin: +1,155- 11.3 Miles
6. Westerville: +953- 12.0 Miles
7. New Albany: +783- 13.0 Miles
8. Gahanna: +580- 7.5 Miles
9. Powell: +460- 14.2 Miles
10. Reynoldsburg: +454- 9.9 Miles
11. Upper Arlington: +432- 4.1 Miles
12. Pickerington: +401- 14.1 Miles
13. Grandview Heights: +374- 2.6 Miles
14. Whitehall: +341- 6.0 Miles
15. Canal Winchester: +292- 12.7 Miles

12 of the 15 are within Franklin County. Another 2 (Pickerington and Powell) are near the Franklin County border. Only Delaware is beyond 15 miles from Columbus’ center.

So do these numbers show a real trend? Maybe. Some of the questions are: Do 2 years of data support a real trend or just a blip? Is this really an urban movement or a rural decline… or both? Is this a new/recent trend or have the numbers been changing? Those questions and others need to be answered before making a definitive statement, but if nothing else, they are a positive indication that Columbus and it’s immediate surroundings remain the metro’s (and Ohio’s) strongest population draw.