Cool Link of the Day: Spatial Mismatch in Local Employment

The Urban Institute released a study on San Francisco and Columbus metro areas and how the number of listed jobs match the number of job seekers. Take a look at it with the link here: Too Far From Jobs

Where Columbus’ Foreign-Born Population Originates

Columbus has a growing and diversifying foreign-born population these days. As of 2017, they made up 12% of the city’s population, the highest in more than 100 years. I’ve looked at such numbers before, but I wanted to update for the most recent available numbers.

Top 25 Origin Nations for the Existing Foreign-Born Population
1. Mexico: 13620———————1. Mexico: 12214
2. India: 7790————————–2. India: 10095
3. Somalia: 6799———————3. Somalia: 8143
4. China: 3881————————-4. China: 6475
5. Ghana: 2381————————5. Ghana: 5229
6. Korea: 2246————————-6. Ethiopia: 2428
7. El Salvador: 1542—————–7. Kenya: 2131
8. Japan: 1518————————8. El Salvador: 2057
9. Vietnam: 1496———————-9. Vietnam: 1992
10. Ethiopia: 1457——————-10. Nepal: 1914
11. Kenya: 1391———————-11. Korea: 1564
12. Sierra Leone: 1222————-12. Iraq: 1407
13. Haiti: 1091————————13. Sierra Leone: 1399
14. Canada: 1086——————–14. Dominican Republic: 1292
15. Philippines: 1054—————-15. Japan: 1292
16. Germany: 1017——————-16. Cambodia: 1165
17. United Kingdom: 970———–17. Russia: 1142
18. Cambodia: 962——————-18. Philippines: 1135
19. Taiwan: 940———————–19. Morocco: 1134
20. Liberia: 852———————–20. Nigeria: 1029
21. Guatemala: 832——————21. Cameroon: 1018
22. Dominican Republic: 804——22. Taiwan: 982
23. Russia: 800———————–23. United Kingdom: 951
24. Ukraine: 716———————-24. Ukraine: 868
25. Nigeria: 701———————–25. Pakistan: 861

Since 2010, there has been somewhat of a shift away from Europe and Latin America, and more and more into Asia and Africa.

Here were the 10 biggest gainers and losers 2010-2017
1. Ghana: 2848———————-1. Mexico: -1406
2. China: 2594———————–2. Korea: -682
3. India: 2105————————3. Haiti: -647
4. Nepal: 1766———————–4. Germany: -280
5. Somalia: 1344——————–5. Liberia: -268
6. Iraq: 1108————————–6. Belarus: -228
7. Ethiopia: 971———————-7. Canada: -247
8. Morocco: 873———————8. Japan: -226
9. Cameroon: 819——————9. Bosnia/Herzegovina: -215
10. Kenya: 740———————-10. Guatemala: -210

Keep in mind that these are just estimates and can therefore have wide margins of error.

The Recovery of Downtown vs Cleveland and Cincinnati Part #1- Update

**Updated and reposted from last year.

Columbus’ downtown has seen many many changes, especially over the last decade. Developments like the Arena District, Columbus Commons, the Scioto Mile and more have brought new life to the area. Dozens of new restaurants and shops have opened in recent years, with more on the way. Larger developments coming up include the redevelopment of the Scioto Peninsula, Confluence Village- complete with a new Crew Stadium- and at least 3 new mixed-use towers. All of this has led to rising population, with estimates population by the city near 9,000. So the question I was wondering is how has population been changing not only in Columbus’ downtown, but in comparison to Cleveland and Cincinnati. Both of those cities have also seen major projects in their downtown cores and are seeing an uptick in their downtown populations.

First, I examined the 1950 city limits for all three cities. This was the last census year before sprawl really took hold and changed the city dynamics and growth patterns. 1950 is also when most cities in Ohio reached their peak urban population, so I thought it would be interesting to see how those old boundaries had changed over the years. I went to the US census website and began to look up all the census tracts that existed in each city in 1950. Those would represent my base area that I would use to see the changes in the city core. All of the 3-Cs have grown beyond those 1950 boundaries, especially Columbus, but these areas were the hardest hit when the urban decline came the last 50-60 years as the suburbs grew. Looking at how these areas changed is both sobering and perhaps hopeful as well.

All 3-Cs saw population decline between 1950 and 2010. Columbus’ decline which much less severe than the other 2, but it followed the same general trends. Since 2010, both Cincinnati and Columbus have seen growth within the 1950 boundary.

1950 Boundary Population Change 1950-2017
Cincinnati: -223,097
Cleveland: -539,907
Columbus: -134,562

1950 Boundary Population Change 2010-2017
Cincinnati: +2,392
Cleveland: -6,000
Columbus: +6,566

1950 Boundary Population % Change 1950-2017
Cincinnati: -44.3%
Cleveland: -59.0%
Columbus: -35.8%

1950 Boundary Population % Change 2010-2017
Cincinnati: +0.9%
Cleveland: -1.6%
Columbus: +2.8%

In Cleveland, the rate of loss had gradually been slowing down since the 1970s, but suddenly skyrocketed again in the 2000s. I’m not sure what exactly caused this. The double recessions made it more difficult for people to move, so if anything, the losses should’ve not accelerated. Cleveland lost over 90,000 people in its urban core from 2000-2010, the highest lost by % and total of any Ohio city, and one of the highest in the country.
In Cincinnati, population loss had peaked in the 1970s and the rate of loss fell substantially the following decade. However, the past 2 decades have actually seen a gradual acceleration of losses. The 2000-2010 period saw the second biggest total loss for the urban core, but there has been a significant turnaround (if estimates are correct) and the city is seeing growth now.
For Columbus, it’s been the opposite picture. Like the other 2-Cs, losses peaked in the 1970s. Since then, the urban core losses have been in gradual decline. The 2000-2010 period had the smallest rate and total loss of any decade the past 65+ years, and since 2010, there has been net growth.

So interesting results, but these numbers don’t show any trends of what’s going on inside the 1950 boundaries, especially not the relatively small part that would be the downtowns. So let’s break the numbers down a little more to the tract level.

# of Tracts in 1950*
Cincinnat: 107
Cleveland: 201
Columbus: 48

*The number of tracts changed from 1950 on as some were split or consolidated. This made it more complicated, but luckily the Census gives lists on how tracts changed over time, so one can figure out what tract became what and reasonably keep up with the same boundaries that existed in 1950.

So with this breakdown, we can see more of the trends within the 1950 boundaries. In Cincinnati, a long decline was followed by a recovery in 1990, only to have the next 20 years show an increasing decline. The 2010 census showed the fewest number of tracts growing on record. This is the worst performance of the 3-Cs. Cleveland also had a steep decline followed by a recovery, but it too declined more at the last census, but not nearly to the low point it reached in the 1970s and 1980s.

Meanwhile, Columbus also faced an initial steep decline and barely had any tracts growing during the 1970s. Since then, the trend has been up. The 16 growing tracts in 2010 were the highest since the 1940s. This is the best performance of the 3-Cs, and Columbus had the highest % of growing tracts in its core. Still, those 16 represent less than 1/3rd of the total tracts within the 1950 boundaries. However, in the case of all 3 cities, the 2010-2017 has greatly increased the number of growing tracts. This suggest that the urban core of every city has been improving this decade. The more than 68% of all 1950 area tracts growing in 2017 is by far the highest of the 3 cities.
In Part 2, we will look only at the specific downtown areas.

Cool Link of the Day: Election Patterns Mapped

In light of the upcoming Midterms, here’s a great site that maps congressional districts since 1840. You can see how the districts have changed in size and shape, and how those districts have voted in each election.

The Week in Review #2

So last week, the FBI finally released the full crime numbers for 2017 for all cities. How did Columbus fare? Well, it was a decidedly mixed bag. Total murders were their highest ever, at 143, but the rate fell quite short of the record set back in 1991. So far for 2018, murder is behind 2017’s rate by about 22%, so it’s a good improvement, but still not even close to where it should be.

Other violent crime figures 2016 to 2017
-Rape continued its multi-year rise in the city, reaching 919 incidents. This was a 6% increase over 2016.
-Assaults were up 4% over 2016, but in the context of still being one of the lowest totals in the past 30 years.
-Robberies were down almost 8.5% over 2016.
-Despite the rises in most types of violent crime, the drop in robberies meant overall violent crime dropped by about 0.5%.
Property crime figures 2016 to 2017
-Burglaries were down more than 8%.
-Larceny thefts were down about 2.9%
-Motor vehicle thefts were up 17.6%, so not a good trend, but still less than half the rate it was 15-20 years ago.
-Overall property crime was down about 2% versus 2016.

And if you think this year’s been particularly wet, you are right! Through October 1st, Columbus is having its 3rd wettest year on record. Only 1882 and 1890 are ahead of 2018 at this point, and by barely 1″. 2018 at this point is running almost 14″ above normal.
Top 10 Wettest Years Through October 1st
1. 1882: 44.55″
2. 1890: 43.56″
3. 2018: 43.31″
4. 1979: 42.17″
5. 2003: 41.58″
6. 2011: 41.12″
7. 1990: 39.10″
8. 1949: 38.54″
9. 2004: 38.46″
10. 1996: 37.46″
It is surprising how many recent years are on this list. Still with 3 months to go, the pattern could break, but it’s very unlikely that 2018 doesn’t end up in the top 10. Here are the top 10 wettest full years.
1. 2011: 54.96″
2. 1990: 53.16″
3. 1882: 51.30″
4. 1890: 50.73″
5. 2004: 49.27″
6. 1979: 49.17″
7. 2003: 49.03″
8. 1883: 48.88″
9. 1881: 46.99″
10. 2017: 46.61″

Guess it could always be worse.