Suburban vs. Urban Growth in U.S. Metros




Now that we have the full set of 2017 population estimates, I wanted to examine a popular claim a little more closely. The claim is that suburban growth far exceeds that of core cities/counties, and it’s often repeated in media throughout the country. One of the things that always bothered me about this was the constant use of basing this claim largely on % change. This has a major flaw, one that I will go into more below.

For this little study, I will look at the top 50 largest metro areas.

First, let’s look at the total change in the whole metro area, the core county and the core city between the 2010 Census and July 1, 2017. They will be ranked here by total metro change.
1. Dallas, TX: +973,431
2. Houston, TX: +971,941
3. New York, NY: +754,396
4. Atlanta, GA: +597,993
5. Miami, FL: +592,525
6. Washington, DC: +580,228
7. Phoenix, AZ: +544,141
8. Los Angeles, CA: +524,946
9. Seattle, WA: +427,240
10. Austin, TX: +399,507
11. San Francisco, Ca: +391,784
12. Orlando, FL: +375,432
13. Riverside, CA: +355,705
14. Denver, CO: +344,635
15. San Antonio, TX: +331,458
16. Charlotte, NC: +308,313
17. Tampa, FL: +307,930
18. Boston, MA: +283,935
19. Las Vegas, NV: +252,810
20. Minneapolis, MN: +251,760
21. San Diego, CA: +242,343
22. Nashville, TN: +232,162
23. Portland, OR: +227,167
24. Raleigh, NC: +204,590
25. Columbus: +176,724
26. Sacramento, CA: +175,740
27. San Jose, CA: +161,523
28. Jacksonville, FL: +159,382
29. Indianapolis, IN: +140,524
30. Oklahoma City, OK: +130,746
31. Philadelphia, PA: +130,427
32. Kansas City, MO: +119,574
33. Salt Lake City, UT: +115,297
34. Baltimore, MD: +97,572
35. Richmond, VA: +86,117
36. New Orleans, LA: +85,903
37. Chicago: +71,499
38. Cincinnati: +64,396
39. Louisville, KY: +58,247
40. Virginia Beach, VA: +48,429
41. Memphis, TN: +23,433
42. Birmingham, AL: +21,751
43. Milwaukee, WI: +20,282
44. Providence, RI: +19,912
45. St. Louis, MO: +19,575
46. Detroit: +16,685
47. Buffalo, NY: +1,239
48. Hartford, CT: -2,139
49. Cleveland: -18,427
50. Pittsburgh, PA: -22,924

Now that we have the total growth, let’s break it down a bit more.

How much of the total metro change occurred in the core county of each metro? This will be ranked by the highest to lowest % occurring in the core county.

Core County Change—————-Core County % of Total Metro
1. Las Vegas: +252,810———————-100.00%
2. San Diego: +242,343———————-100.00%
3. San Jose: +161,523**———————100.00%
4. Buffalo: +6,488——————————100.00%
5. Salt Lake City: +105,994——————91.93%
6. Phoenix: +489,916————————–90.03%
7. Raleigh: +171,210————————–83.68%
8. San Antonio: +243,805——————–73.56%
9. Columbus: +128,567———————–72.75%
10. Los Angeles: +344,902——————65.70%
11. Sacramento: +111,827——————63.63%
12. Seattle: +257,400————————-60.25%
13. New York: +447,565*——————–59.33%
14. Tampa: +179,340————————-58.24%
15. Houston: +560,521———————–57.67%
16. New Orleans: +49,463——————-57.58%
17. Jacksonville: +88,902——————–55.78%
18. Riverside: +198,100———————-55.69%
19. Providence: +10,870———————54.59%
20. Orlando: +203,019————————54.08%
21. Oklahoma City: +69,325—————-53.02%
22. Louisville: +30,052———————–51.59%
23. Charlotte: +157,209———————50.99%
24. Austin: +202,432————————-50.67%
25. Miami: +255,361————————-43.10%
26. Memphis: +9,317————————39.76%
27. Minneapolis: +99,599——————-39.56%
28. Indianapolis: +46,689——————33.22%
29. Philadelphia: +41,866——————32.10%
30. Portland: +72,221———————–31.79%
31. Denver: +104,463**———————30.31%
32. Nashville: +64,663———————-27.85%
33. Boston: +75,916————————-26.74%
34. Richmond: +22,818**——————26.50%
35. Virginia Beach: +12,441**————25.69%
36. Dallas: +250,009————————25.68%
37. Chicago: +16,588———————–23.20%
38. Milwaukee: +4,350———————21.45%
39. Kansas City: +24,737—————–20.69%
40. Atlanta: +120,843———————-20.21%
41. San Francisco: +79,128**————20.20%
42. Cincinnati: +11,448——————–17.78%
43. Washington, DC: +92,249**———15.90%
44. Birmingham: +731———————-3.36%
45. Hartford: +1,374————————-0.0%
46. Baltimore: -9,313**———————-0.0%
47. St. Louis: -10,668**———————0.0%
48. Detroit: -66,968————————–0.0%
49. Pittsburgh: -300———————– -1.31%
50. Cleveland: -31,608——————- -100.00%

*New York includes all 5 main boroughs, so it is different than core county, but still represents the urban center of the metro area.
**Core County and City are consolidated, or city exists as separate entity.

Going down even further, let’s compare the core city to the total metro, again ranked by %.

Core City Change————————Core City % of Total Metro
1. New York: +447,565————————-59.33%
2. New Orleans: +49,463———————–57.58%
3. San Antonio: +184,539———————-55.67%
4. San Jose: +89,375—————————55.33%
5. Columbus: +92,137————————–52.14%
6. Oklahoma City: +63,649——————–48.68%
7. San Diego: +112,114————————46.26%
8. Jacksonville: +70,278———————–44.09%
9. Philadelphia: +54,857———————–42.06%
10. Charlotte: +127,611————————41.39%
11. Louisville: +24,012————————-41.22%
12. Austin: +160,325—————————40.13%
13. Los Angeles: +207,138——————-39.46%
14. Las Vegas: +64,468———————–36.68%
15. Phoenix: +180,446————————-33.16%
16. Raleigh: +65,098—————————31.82%
17. Denver: +104,463————————–30.31%
18. Indianapolis: +42,557———————30.28%
19. Chicago: +20,852————————–29.16%
20. Portland: +64,029————————–28.19%
21. Nashville: +64,562————————-27.81%
22. Seattle: +116,085————————–27.17%
23. Richmond: +22,818**———————26.50%
24. Virginia Beach: +12,441**—————25.69%
25. Kansas City: +29,156———————24.38%
26. Boston: +67,500—————————23.77%
27. Memphis: +5,347————————–22.82%
28. Houston: +212,454————————21.86%
29. San Francisco**: +79,128—————20.20%
30. Sacramento: +35,413———————20.15%
31. Minneapolis: +41,412———————16.45%
32. Tampa: +49,721—————————-16.15%
33. Washington, DC: +92,249**————-15.90%
34. Dallas: +143,259—————————14.72%
35. Salt Lake City: +14,104——————-12.23%
36. Providence: +2,351————————11.81%
37. Orlando: +41,957—————————11.18%
38. Atlanta: +66,287—————————-11.08%
39. Miami: +54,122——————————9.13%
40. Cincinnati: +4,356————————–6.76%
41. Riverside: +23,857————————-6.71%
42. Milwaukee: +518—————————2.55%
43. Birmingham: -1,527———————–0.0%
44. Buffalo: -5,218——————————0.0%
45. Baltimore: -9,313**————————0.0%
46. St. Louis: -10,668**———————–0.0%
47. Detroit: -40,673—————————-0.0%
48. Pittsburgh: -3,297———————– -14.38%
49. Cleveland: -10,889——————— -59.09%
50. Hartford: -1,375————————- -64.28%

*Again, I used the 5 boroughs of New York here, so the numbers don’t change.
**See above.

Finally, because core counties and cities can be absolutely huge, like in Phoenix, I wanted to take see the ratio of people moving vs. the area size. To do this, I divided the growth by the land area of each core county and city.

So basically, how many people moved there per each square mile.

Core County Ratio——————————-Core City Ratio
1. San Francisco: 1,687.52————————-1,687.52
2. Washington, DC: 1,511.04———————-1,511.04
3. New York: 1,475.51——————————-1,475.51
4. Boston: 1,308.90———————————–1,394.05
5. Denver: 681.30————————————–681.30
6. Richmond: 379.67———————————-379.67
7. Houston: 329.14————————————354.33
8. Philadelphia: 312.43——————————-408.83
9. Charlotte: 300.02———————————–428.66
10. New Orleans: 291.95—————————-291.95
11. Dallas: 286.38————————————-420.73
12. Columbus: 241.67——————————-424.26
13. Atlanta: 229.30———————————–497.65
14. Orlando: 224.83———————————-398.75
15. Raleigh: 205.04———————————-455.87
16. Austin: 204.48————————————538.18
17. San Antonio: 196.62—————————-400.36
18. Minneapolis: 179.78—————————–754.32
19. Tampa: 175.82————————————438.38
20. Portland: 167.57———————————-481.42
21. Salt Lake City: 142.85—————————129.28
22. Miami: 134.54————————————-1,503.81
23. Nashville: 128.30———————————128.01
24. San Jose: 125.21———————————503.49
25. Seattle: 121.64————————————1,384.11
26. Indianapolis: 117.81——————————117.72
27. Jacksonville: 116.67——————————94.02
28. Sacramento: 115.88——————————361.65
29. Oklahoma City: 97.78—————————-105.89
30. Los Angeles: 84.99——————————-441.90
31. Louisville: 79.08———————————–63.11
32. San Diego: 57.84———————————344.76
33. Phoenix: 53.25————————————348.59
34. Virginia Beach: 49.96—————————-49.96
35. Kansas City: 40.96——————————-92.57
36. Las Vegas: 32.04———————————474.73
37. Cincinnati: 28.20———————————-55.89
38. Riverside: 27.49———————————–293.70
39. Providence: 26.51——————————–127.08
40. Milwaukee: 18.05———————————5.39
41. Chicago: 17.5————————————–91.72
42. Memphis: 12.21———————————–16.97
43. Buffalo: 6.22————————————– -128.52
44. Harford: 1.87————————————- -79.02
45. Birmingham: 0.66——————————- -10.46
46. Pittsburgh: -0.41——————————— -59.53
47. Cleveland: -69.16——————————- -140.14
48. Detroit: -109.42———————————- -293.14
49. Baltimore: -115.12—————————— -115.12
50. St. Louis: -172.34——————————- -172.34

So what’s all this mean? Columbus performs particularly well here. Franklin County attracts a high percentage of the total metro population, and Columbus itself is one of only 5 cities with more than 50% of the metro growth entering the city limits. Even accounting for area size, Columbus does fairly well. This suggests that urban growth there is stronger than in most cities.




Columbus Area and Ohio City 2017 Population Estimates




So once again, city estimates came out today. As has been the case for a long time now, Columbus is rocketing upward at record pace. The 2016 comparison numbers have been adjusted by the Census for the 2017 update.

First, let’s take a look at the top 25 largest cities in Ohio on July 1, 2017.

Census 2010—————————-July 1, 2016——————-July 1, 2017
1. Columbus: 787,033——–1. Columbus: 863,741———–1. Columbus: 879,170
2. Cleveland: 396,815———2. Cleveland: 387,451———-2. Cleveland: 385,525
3. Cincinnati: 296,943———3. Cincinnati: 299,127———-3. Cincinnati: 301,301
4. Toledo: 287,208————-4. Toledo: 278,06—————4. Toledo: 276,491
5. Akron: 199,110————–5. Akron: 197,711—————5. Akron: 197,846
6. Dayton: 141,527————6. Dayton: 140,743————–6. Dayton: 140,371
7. Parma: 81,601————–7. Parma: 79,591—————–7. Parma: 79,167
8. Canton: 73,007————-8. Canton: 71,294—————-8. Canton: 70,909
9. Youngstown: 66,982——9. Youngstown: 64,360———9. Youngstown: 64,604
10. Lorain: 64,097————10. Lorain: 63,700—————-10. Lorain: 63,841
11. Hamilton: 62,477———11. Hamilton: 62,157————11. Hamilton: 62,092
12. Springfield: 60,608——-12. Springfield: 58,902———12. Springfield: 59,208
13. Kettering: 56,163———13. Kettering: 55,218————13. Kettering: 55,175
14. Elyria: 54,533————-14. Elyria: 53,880—————–14. Elyria: 53,883
15. Lakewood: 52,131——-15. Lakewood: 50,500———-15. Lakewood: 50,249
16. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,652–16. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,197–16. Newark: 49,423
17. Euclid: 48,920————-17. Newark: 48,899———-17. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,247
18. Middletown: 48,694——18. Middletown: 48,819——–18. Middletown: 48,823
19. Mansfield: 47,821——–19. Euclid: 47,464—————19. Dublin: 47,619
20. Newark: 47,573———–20. Mentor: 46,823————-20. Euclid: 47,201
21. Mentor: 47,159————21. Mansfield: 46,671———-21. Mentor: 47,121
22. Cleveland Heights: 46,121–22. Beavercreek: 46,393–22. Beavercreek: 46,948
23. Beavercreek: 45,193—–23. Dublin: 45,673————-23. Mansfield: 46,160
24. Strongsville: 44.750—–24. Cleveland Heights: 44,805–24. Strongsville: 44,744
25. Fairfield: 42,510———25. Strongsville: 44,713———25. Cleveland Heights: 44,562

So Columbus easily maintained #1, and Dublin and Newark are rapidly climbing the list.

Here are all of the Columbus Metro’s cities, towns and villages on July 1, 2017, and the total change from July 1, 2016.

1. Columbus: 879,170 +15,429
2. Newark: 49,423 +534
3. Dublin: 47,619 +1,937
4. Grove City: 41,022 +1,128
5. Lancaster: 40,280 +431
6. Westerville: 39,737 +671
7. Delaware: 39,267 +506
8. Reynoldsburg: 37,847 +345
9. Hilliard: 35,939 +938
10. Upper Arlington: 35,337 +217
11. Gahanna: 35,297 +241
12. Marysville: 23,912 +462
13. Pickerington: 20,402 +350
14. Whitehall: 18,913 +89
15. Pataskala: 15,566 +147
16. Worthington: 14,646 +71
17. Circleville: 13,930 +80
18. Bexley: 13,786 +48
19. Powell: 13,204 +400
20. New Albany: 10,718 +301
21. Heath: 10,713 +100
22. London: 10,138 +143
23. Canal Winchester: 8,294 +349
24. Grandview Heights: 7,778 +116
25. Logan: 7,069 +25
26. Granville: 5,773 +11
27. Groveport: 5,621 +26
28. Sunbury: 5,293 +57
29. Johnstown: 5,002 +43
30. Obetz: 4,967 +99
31. New Lexington: 4,704 -12
32. Plain City: 4,379 +32
33. West Jefferson: 4,355 +59
34. Ashville: 4,147 +29
35. Mount Gilead: 3,655 +1
36. Baltimore: 2,989 +15
37. Buckeye Lake: 2,816 +18
38. Crooksville: 2,491 -6
39. Hebron: 2,435 +23
40. Richwood: 2,372 +56
41. Utica: 2,211 +17
42. Cardington: 2,048 +2
43. South Bloomfield: 1,972 +19
44. Roseville: 1,839 -4
45. Mount Sterling: 1,767 +10
46. Commercial Point: 1,629 +13
47. Lithopolis: 1,573 +128
48. Ashley: 1,537 +26
49. Somerset: 1,462 -1
50. Bremen: 1,441 +6
51. Minerva Park: 1,321 +6
52. Hanover: 1,178 +15
53. Williamsport: 1,065 +6
54. Millersport: 1,055 +7
55. Urbancrest: 1,001 +6
56. Thornville: 999 +5
57. Pleasantville: 964 +3
58. Milford Center: 860 +20
59. New Holland: 840 +5
60. Junction City: 808 -2
61. Shawnee Hills: 787 +14
62. Amanda: 747 +4
63. Ostrander: 713 +13
64. New Straitsville: 711 -1
65. Marble Cliff: 683 +10
66. Galena: 682 +1
67. Shawnee: 643 -1
68. Valleyview: 638 +1
69. Thurston: 609 +4
70. Corning: 571 -1
71. Butchel: 568 +5
72. Stoutsville: 567 +3
73. Riverlea: 566 +2
74. Carroll: 560 +33
75. Kirkersville: 542 +3
76. Alexandria: 534 +3
77. Laurelville: 511 +2
78. Murray City: 441 +1
79. Edison: 438 +0
80. Sugar Grove: 426 +0
81. Hartford: 404 +2
82. St. Louisville: 380 +4
83. South Solon: 357 -1
84. Marengo: 338 -1
85. Harrisburg: 335 +4
86. Midway: 326 +1
87. Rushville: 310 +2
88. Magnetic Springs: 285 +8
89. Tarlton: 282 +1
90. Orient: 278 +1
91. Fulton: 258 +0
92. Lockbourne: 246 +0
93. Darbyville: 234 +1
94. Unionville Center: 232 -1
95. Chesterville: 227 +0
96. Gratiot: 222 +1
97. Glenford: 172 +0
98. Sparta: 158 -3
99. Hemlock: 152 +0
100. West Rushville: 135 +1
101. Brice: 119 +1
102. Rendville: 36 +0

Some milestones include Grove City and Lancaster passing 40,000 for the first time and Johnstown passing the 5,000 mark. 11 places lost population, 8 stayed the same and 83 gained population. The growing portions of the Columbus metro continue to encompass the vast majority of incorporated places.

Nationally, here were the top 20 fastest-growing cities by numerical change between July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017

1. San Antonio, Texas: +24,208
2. Phoenix, Arizona: 24,036
3. Dallas, Texas: +18,935
4. Fort Worth, Texas: +18,664
5. Los Angeles: 18,643
6. Seattle, Washington: +17,490
7. Charlotte, North Carolina: +15,551
8. Columbus: +15,429
9. Frisco, Texas: +13,470
10. Atlanta, Georgia: +13,323
11. San Diego, California: +12,834
12. Austin, Texas: +12,515
13. Jacksonville, Florida: +11,169
14. Irvine, California: +11,068
15. Henderson, Nevada: +10,534
16. Las Vegas, Nevada: 9,966
17. Denver, Colorado: 9,844
18. Washington, DC: 9,636
19. Tampa, Florida: 9,383
20. Mesa, Arizona: 9,025

Columbus may in fact be an official boomtown now.




2014 Metro Area Population Estimates

Along with county estimates, metropolitan areas were also released.

Here is where Columbus stands along with all peers in the 1.5-2.5 million range, along with the Midwest’s largest.

Metro Area Population Ranking, Census 2010, July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014

2010                                             2013                                   2014
1. Chicago, IL: 9,461,105 ——–1. Chicago: 9,544,796———–1. Chicago, IL: 9,554,598
2. Detroit, MI: 4,296,250———-2. Detroit, MI: 4,295,394——-2. Detroit, MI: 4,296,611
3. Minneapolis, MN: 3,348,859–3. Minneapolis: 3,461,434—3. Minneapolis: 3,495,176
4. St. Louis, MO: 2,787,701——4. St. Louis: 2,801,587——-4. St. Louis, MO: 2,806,207
5. Pittsburgh, PA: 2,356,285—–5. Pittsburgh: 2,360,565—–5. Charlotte, NC: 2,380,314
6. Portland, OR: 2,226,009—–6. Charlotte, NC: 2,337,339–6. Pittsburgh, PA: 2,355,968
7. Charlotte, NC: 2,217,012—-7. Portland, OR: 2,314,747—7. Portland, OR: 2,348,247
8. Sacramento, CA: 2,149,127-8. San Antonio: 2,282,201—8. San Antonio: 2,328,652
9. San Antonio, TX: 2,142,508-9. Orlando, FL: 2,271,083—-9. Orlando, FL: 2,321,418
10. Orlando, FL: 2,134,411-10. Sacramento: 2,217,515-10. Sacramento, CA: 2,244,397
11. Cincinnati: 2,114,580—11. Cincinnati: 2,138,536——–11. Cincinnati: 2,149,449
12. Cleveland: 2,077,240—-12. Cleveland: 2,065,328—12. Kansas City, MO: 2,071,133
13. Kansas City: 2,009,342–13. Kansas City: 2,055,351–13. Las Vegas, NV: 2,069,681
14. Las Vegas: 1,951,269–14. Las Vegas, NV: 2,029,316—14. Cleveland: 2,063,598
15. Columbus: 1,901,974—-15. Columbus: 1,969,032——-15. Columbus: 1,994,536
16. Indianapolis, IN: 1,887,877–16. Indianapolis: 1,953,146–16. Indianapolis: 1,971,274
17. San Jose, CA: 1,836,911–17. San Jose, CA: 1,928,701–17. San Jose: 1,952,872
18. Austin, TX: 1,716,289—–18. Austin, TX: 1,885,803——18. Austin, TX: 1,943,299
19. Virginia Beach: 1,676,822–19. Nashville, TN: 1,758,577–19. Nashville: 1,792,649
20. Nashville: 1,670,890–20. Virginia Beach: 1,707,385–20. Virginia Beach: 1,716,624
21. Providence, RI: 1,600,852–21. Providence: 1,605,521–21. Providence: 1,609,367
22. Milwaukee, WI: 1,555,908–22. Milwaukee: 1,570,167—22. Milwaukee: 1,572,245
23. Grand Rapids: 988,938-23. Grand Rapids: 1,017,247-23. Grand Rapids: 1,027,703
24. Omaha, NE: 865,350—-24. Omaha, NE: 895,573——24. Omaha, NE: 904,421
25. Dayton: 799,232———-25. Dayton: 801,645————-25. Dayton: 800,836
26. Akron: 703,200———–26. Akron: 703,210—————26. Akron: 703,825
27. Wichita, KS: 630,919—-27. Wichita, KS: 638,259——27. Wichita, KS: 641,076
28. Toledo: 610,001———-28. Madison, WI: 627,466—–28. Madison, WI: 633,787
29. Madison, WI: 605,435–29. Toledo, OH: 608,430——29. Des Moines, IA: 611,549
30. Des Moines, IA: 569,633–30. Des Moines, IA: 600,086–30. Toledo, OH: 607,456
31. Youngstown: 565,773–31. Youngstown: 556,129—–31. Youngstown: 553,263

Total Births Census 2010 to July 1, 2014
Chicago, IL: 516,295
Detroit, MI: 212,571
Minneapolis, MN: 192,866
Charlotte, NC: 125,143
Kansas City, MO: 117,872
Portland, OR: 117,482
Cincinnati: 117,072
Sacramento, CA: 116,893
Orlando, FL: 114,387
Columbus: 113,392
Indianapolis, IN: 113,127
Las Vegas, NV: 111,857
Austin, TX: 107,591
San Jose, CA: 105,447
Pittsburgh, PA: 100,888
Cleveland: 98,504
Virginia Beach, VA: 96,734
Nashville, TN: 96,440
Milwaukee, WI: 84,990
Providence, RI: 70,850
Grand Rapids, MI: 57,551
Omaha, NE: 55,860
Dayton: 40,683
Wichita, KS: 40,276
Des Moines, IA: 36,423
Akron: 32,228
Toledo: 32,024
Madison, WI: 31,280
Youngstown: 23,686

Total Deaths Census 2010 to July 1, 2014
Chicago, IL: 289,440
Detroit, MI: 166,387
Pittsburgh, PA: 114,531
Minneapolis, MN: 90,773
Cleveland: 88,446
Cincinnati: 77,345
Charlotte, NC: 71,315
Kansas City, MO: 68,102
Sacramento, CA: 67,943
Portland, OR: 67,820
Orlando, FL: 65,979
Indianapolis, IN: 64,207
Columbus: 62,011
Providence, RI: 61,604
Las Vegas, NV: 60,256
Nashville, TN: 55,846
Virginia Beach, VA: 55,425
Milwaukee, WI: 55,123
San Jose, CA: 41,927
Austin, TX: 36,873
Dayton: 33,636
Grand Rapids, MI: 30,324
Youngstown: 29,196
Akron: 29,040
Omaha, NE: 26,829
Toledo: 24,226
Wichita, KS: 23,025
Des Moines, IA: 17,602
Madison, WI: 17,069

Total Natural Change Census 2010 to July 1, 2014
Chicago, IL: 226,855
Minneapolis, MN: 102,093
Austin, TX: 70,718
San Jose, CA: 63,520
Charlotte, NC: 53,828
Las Vegas, NV: 51,601
Columbus: 51,381
Kansas City, MO: 49,770
Portland, OR: 49,662
Sacramento, CA: 48,950
Indianapolis, IN: 48,920
Orlando, FL: 48,708
Detroit, MI: 46,184
Virginia Beach, VA: 41,309
Nashville, TN: 40,594
Cincinnati: 39,727
Milwaukee, WI: 29,867
Omaha, NE: 29,031
Grand Rapids, MI: 27,227
Des Moines, IA: 18,821
Wichita, KS: 17,251
Madison, WI: 14,211
Cleveland: 10,058
Providence, RI: 9,246
Toledo: 7,798
Dayton: 7,047
Akron: 3,188
Youngstown: -5,510
Pittsburgh, PA: -13,643

Total Domestic Migration Census 2010 to July 1, 2014
Austin, TX: 126,296
Charlotte, NC: 83,305
Orlando, FL: 72,735
Nashville, TN: 63,477
Portland, OR: 48,793
Las Vegas, NV: 35,289
Columbus: 20,083
Indianapolis, IN: 16,744
Des Moines, IA: 16,559
Sacramento, CA: 15,658
Madison, WI: 6,901
Grand Rapids, MI: 5,372
Pittsburgh, PA: 4,053
Omaha, NE: 2,869
Minneapolis, MN: -934
Kansas City, MO: -1,948
Akron: -6,490
Youngstown: -7,347
Dayton: -10,873
Wichita, KS: -11,148
Toledo: -13,337
San Jose, CA: -15,335
Cincinnati: -18,334
Providence, RI: -21,325
Milwaukee, WI: -22,597
Virginia Beach, VA: -24,374
Cleveland: -38,424
Detroit, MI: -89,649
Chicago, IL: -237,666

Total International Migration Census 2010 to July 1, 2014
Chicago, IL: 108,320
San Jose, CA: 69,894
Orlando, FL: 63,215
Minneapolis, MN: 46,328
Detroit, MI: 44,614
Las Vegas, NV: 29,440
Sacramento, CA: 29,435
Austin, TX: 25,762
Charlotte, NC: 23,114
Virginia Beach, VA: 23,092
Portland, OR: 22,042
Columbus: 21,574
Providence, RI: 21,170
Indianapolis, IN: 17,623
Nashville, TN: 16,204
Cleveland: 16,010
Kansas City, MO: 14,569
Cincinnati: 14,567
Pittsburgh, PA: 12,887
Milwaukee, WI: 9,968
Omaha, NE: 7,897
Madison, WI: 6,706
Grand Rapids, MI: 6,232
Dayton: 6,200
Des Moines, IA: 6,159
Akron: 4,599
Wichita, KS: 4,006
Toledo: 2,971
Youngstown: 1,088

Total Migration Census 2010 to July 1, 2014
Austin, TX: 152,058
Orlando, FL: 135,950
Charlotte, NC: 106,419
Nashville, TN: 79,681
Portland, OR: 70,835
Las Vegas, NV: 64,729
San Jose, CA: 54,559
Minneapolis, MN: 45,394
Sacramento, CA: 45,093
Columbus: 41,657
Indianapolis, IN: 34,367
Des Moines, IA: 22,718
Pittsburgh, PA: 16,940
Madison, WI: 13,607
Kansas City, MO: 12,621
Grand Rapids, MI: 11,604
Omaha, NE: 10,766
Providence, RI: -155
Virginia Beach, VA: -1,282
Akron: -1,891
Cincinnati: -3,767
Dayton: -4,673
Youngstown: -6,259
Wichita, KS: -7,142
Toledo: -10,366
Milwaukee, WI: -12,629
Cleveland: -22,414
Detroit, MI: -45,035
Chicago, IL: -129,346

Total Population Change Census 2010 to July 1, 2014
Austin, TX: 226,996
Orlando, FL: 187,012
Charlotte, NC: 163,066
Minneapolis, MN: 146,319
Portland, OR: 122,236
Nashville, TN: 121,749
Las Vegas, NV: 118,412
San Jose, CA: 115,931
Sacramento, CA: 95,254
Chicago, IL: 93,061
Columbus: 92,521
Indianapolis, IN: 83,192
Kansas City, MO: 61,795
Des Moines, IA: 41,916
Virginia Beach, VA: 39,807
Omaha, NE: 39,071
Grand Rapids, MI: 38,763
Cincinnati: 34,694
Madison, WI: 28,350
Milwaukee, WI: 16,291
Wichita, KS: 10,157
Providence, RI: 8,151
Dayton: 1,620
Akron: 618
Detroit, MI: 298
Pittsburgh, PA: -317
Toledo: -2,545
Youngstown: -12,541
Cleveland: -13,648

Out of the 31 peer and Midwest metros, Columbus had the 7th highest natural growth, the 10th highest migration rate and the 11th highest overall growth rate.

Report on Domestic Migration by State

Over the last few decades, much attention has been given to the fact that domestic migration has heavily favored the “Sun Belt”, states made up of the Southeast west to the West Coast. While Northern states weren’t all losing people, the region as a whole sent far more people to the Sun Belt than they retained. This helped fuel the respective Southern boom, and media story after media story over the years have made sweeping predictions of this growing powerhouse region, often centered around the idea that the boom had no foreseeable end. The irony with these predictions is that they ignored history. For more than 2 centuries, the North was where people moved. Its states and cities saw massive influxes of population. As recently as the decade of the 1950s, Ohio grew by nearly 2 million alone. Economic conditions in decline, job losses, particularly in the manufacturing industry, increases in the cost of living and other factors ended the boom and helped to bring about the rise of the South, so to speak. Since at least the 1960s, the story has been about the Sun Belt/West.

The US Census does state migration estimates every year, and there are some interesting things going on in the data that may indicate that the boom in the South is faltering while the North’s fortunes are not looking as grim as they once did.

First, what are the regions?
South: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.
North: Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D.C., Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wisconsin.
West: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Let’s next look at the states by rank of domestic migration in 2005, the earliest available year for the state data, and compared it to 2012, the most recent year available. This period covers the period just before and just after the Great Recession.

Domestic Migration Rank, 2005 vs. 2012, by Total
2005___________________________________2012
1. Florida: +188,035__________________________1. Florida: +108,823
2. Arizona: +131,501_________________________2. Texas: +105,565
3. Texas: +124,522__________________________3. Colorado: +43,530
4. Georgia: +88,250__________________________4. Washington: +37,187
5. North Carolina: +51,575_____________________5. North Carolina: +34,846
6. Tennessee: +43,901________________________6. South Carolina: +34,149
7. Oregon: +43,360___________________________7. Nevada: +25,835
8. Washington: +38,093________________________8. Arizona: +25,615
9. South Carolina: +32,312______________________9. Georgia: +25,204
10. Arkansas: +30,765_________________________10. Missouri: +20,176
11. Nevada: +26,839__________________________11. North Dakota: +14,254
12. Idaho: +20,308____________________________12. Tennessee: +13,255
13. Colorado: +16,963_________________________13. Virginia: +12,110
14. Oklahoma: +16,372_________________________14. Arkansas: +11,981
15. Alabama: +14,501__________________________15. Oregon: +10,742
16. New Mexico: +13,714_______________________16. New Hampshire: +10,711
17. Delaware: +12,561_________________________17. Delaware: +10,610
18. Virginia: +11,121___________________________18. Kentucky: +8,899
19. Kentucky: +7,451___________________________19. Mississippi: +6,569
20. Missouri: +6,338____________________________20. Oklahoma: +6,402
21. Iowa: +5,406_______________________________21. Utah: +5,717
22. Montana: +4,185____________________________22. Vermont: +4,375
23. Pennsylvania: +2,868________________________23. South Dakota: +3,578
24. Maine: +2,447______________________________24. Montana: +3,410
25. Hawaii: +2,388______________________________25. Idaho: +3,400
26. West Virginia: +998__________________________26. Wisconsin: +1,468
27. New Hampshire: +497________________________27. Iowa: +275
28. South Dakota: +360__________________________28. Ohio: -105
29. Wyoming: -366______________________________29. West Virginia: -300
30. Minnesota: -1,154____________________________30. Wyoming: -639
31. Kansas: -2,244______________________________31. Maryland: -2,821
32. North Dakota: -2,553__________________________32. Rhode Island: -2,948
33. Wisconsin: -2,756____________________________33. Louisiana: -4,741
34. Vermont: -3,580_____________________________34. Kansas: -4,850
35. Nebraska: -5,128____________________________35. Nebraska: -5,174
36. Utah: -5,639________________________________36. Hawaii: -6,364
37. Connecticut: -6,536__________________________37. Connecticut: -6,712
38. Mississippi: -7,120___________________________38. Washington D.C.: -7,470
39. Indiana: -9,222______________________________39. New Mexico: -9,228
40. Maryland: -9,718____________________________40. Alabama: -9,431
41. Washington D.C.: -12,872_____________________41. Indiana: -10,460
42. Rhode Island: -15,037________________________42. Maine: -11,025
43. New Jersey: -22,051_________________________43. Minnesota: -14,904
44. Alaska: -23,567_____________________________44. Massachusetts: -15,579
45. Ohio: -40,841______________________________45. Pennsylvania: -21,656
46. Massachusetts: -52,726______________________46. Michigan: -41,761
47. Michigan: -53,852___________________________47. Alaska: -49,250
48. Illinois: -55,932_____________________________48. Illinois: -68,356
49. Louisiana: -99,684__________________________49. California: -73,345
50. New York: -239,848_________________________50. New Jersey: -89,666
51. California: -266,243_________________________51. New York: -135,149

So in 2005, the breakdown was as follows:
12 of 14 Southern states had positive domestic migration. The only 2 that did not, Louisiana and Mississippi, were heavily influenced in 2005 by Hurricane Katrina, which caused large numbers of displaced residents to leave the states entirely.
7 of 24 Northern states has positive domestic migration. The 7 states were mixed between the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Just one Great Lakes State had positive domestic migration in 2005.
9 of 13 Western states had positive domestic migration. Only California and a few Mountain West states had negative numbers.

The 2005 numbers show the overall domestic migration picture as it had been for at least the last few decades, if not much longer. The South and West were the dominant net gainers of domestic migration, while most of the North sent people to those regions.

In 2012, the breakdown was as follows:
11 of 14 Southern states had positive domestic migration. Even with Katrina-hit state Mississippi having net gains in 2012, the overall number of states with positive gains declined.
8 of 24 Northern states had positive domestic migration, a slight improvement over 2005.
8 of 13 Western states had positive domestic migration, a slight decline over 2005.

But the breakdowns don’t tell us the whole story. When trying to compare the two years, trends are very important, and the trends are far more revealing.

Total Change 2005-2012 By Rank
1. California: +192,898
2. New York: +104,699
3. Louisiana: +94,943
4. Ohio: +40,736
5. Massachusetts: +37,147
6. Colorado: +26,567
7. North Dakota: +16,807
8. Missouri: +13,838
9. Mississippi: +13,689
10. Michigan: +12,091
11. Rhode Island: +12,089
12. Utah: +11,356
13. New Hampshire: +10,214
14. Vermont: +7,955
15. Maryland: +6,897
16.Washington, D.C.: +5,402
17. Wisconsin: +4,224
18. South Dakota: +3,218
19. South Carolina: +1,837
20. Kentucky: +1,448
21. Virginia: +989
22. Nebraska: -46
23. Connecticut: -176
24. Wyoming: -273
25. Montana: -775
26. Washington: -906
27. Nevada: -1,004
28. Indiana: -1,238
29. West Virginia: -1,298
30. Delaware: -1,951
31. Kansas: -2,606
32. Iowa: -5,131
33. Hawaii: -8,752
34. Oklahoma: -9,970
35. Illinois: -12,424
36. Maine: -13,472
37. Minnesota: -13,750
38. North Carolina: -16,729
39. Idaho: -16,908
40. Arkansas: -18,784
41. Texas: -18,957
42. New Mexico: -22,942
43. Alabama: -23,932
44. Pennsylvania: -24,524
45. Alaska: -25,683
46. Tennessee: -30,646
47. Oregon: -32,618
48. Georgia: -63,046
49. New Jersey: -67,615
50. Florida: -79,212
51. Arizona: -105,886

5 of 14 Southern states improved their domestic migration rates 2005-2012.
13 of 24 Northern states improved their domestic migration rates 2005-2012.
3 of 13 Western states improved their domestic migration rates 2005-2012.

Ohio had the 4th best improvement over the period, a huge change. But some might ask, is it really a change when the rates may still be positive or negative like they were before? Well, yes and no. 7 years is not that long, and we’re talking about decades-long patterns here. Those won’t change like flipping a switch. It will take time. The point is more that for many states that have faced negative numbers for a long time, there is positive momentum now that they did not have before. Another question some may ask, however, is if the recession during the period reduced mobility. In some cases, I’m sure that it did, but if so, that reduction seems to have been centered on the South. A reduction in mobility would only indicate that migration rates would reduce to levels around 0, neither particularly positive nor negative. That reduction would NOT necessarily support switches from positive to negative or increases in negative or positive rates that already exist. Meaning that reduced mobility would mean that positive would become less positive as fewer people moved in, and negative would become less negative as fewer people left. On a state and regional basis, there is a wide range of results that do not support that geographic mobility alone is the culprit, or even a primary factor.

In Part 2, we’ll look more closely at how regions and individual states are performing relative to each other.

Colorado Springs Envies Columbus

Well, at least in this article they do, from the Colorado Springs Business Journal: http://csbj.com/2013/01/03/columbus-success-defines-an-opportunity-lost-here/

Reading the article, the intro certainly catches some attention as to the impression of the city to outsiders. Columbus is still seen by some as having the Rust-Belt stereotypes that other Midwestern/Great Lakes cities do, but the author goes on to say that the opposite is true and the city is thriving with public/private investment in projects throughout the urban center. The article offers a look on how Columbus is increasingly making a name for itself nationally. It’s not the first article about the city from an outside source the last year and certainly won’t be the last. More and more people seem to be discovering that Columbus is not mired in failed industry and crippling depression, but is rather an economically vibrant, rapidly diversifying city that is increasingly rivaling these “destination” cities in the South and West which seem to grow almost exclusively on the number of sunny days rather than impressive works of urban living. Columbus has much to be proud of, not only for maintaining itself during much rougher years of previous decades, but by seemingly reaching its social and cultural peak each and every day.