The Real Makeup of the Columbus Economy

Over the years, there have been endless claims about how the Columbus economy is dominated by jobs related to state government and OSU. These claims are usually made from other Ohioans complaining that Columbus has an unfair advantage and is mooching public dollars from the rest of the state to prop up the economy.

Let’s first address two points made: 1. That the number of government jobs is far above what they are in all other major Ohio cities, and 2. That overall, government jobs are becoming a larger slice of the metro economy.

The first claim is easy to look into. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, produces numbers every single month on job industry numbers by metro area. The most recent numbers are from June 2016.
Here are the total government jobs for Ohio’s largest cities.

Columbus: 162,600
Cleveland: 138,800
Cincinnati: 124,200
Dayton: 62,300
Toledo: 44,800
Akron: 40,600

So as to the first claim, that the total of government jobs in Columbus is higher than the other cities, that is true. As the state capital, this is no surprise. However, how dependent on government jobs is Columbus really versus those other cities? To find out, you have to divide government jobs by all total jobs within the metro. In June 2016, here was the percentage of the total.

Dayton: 16.17%
Columbus: 15.30%
Toledo: 14.21%
Cleveland: 12.90%
Akron: 11.84%
Cincinnati: 11.43%

Interestingly enough, Columbus is not the top government-dependent city. That spot goes to Dayton.

Now onto the 2nd claim- that Columbus is increasingly reliant on those government jobs. Let’s look at the % of total jobs that government jobs made up going back to 1990. The figures are for June of each year given.

1990: 17.97%
1995: 17.25%
2000: 15.97%
2005: 17.18%
2010: 17.81%
2015: 15.34%
2016: 15.30%

So it does not appear that Columbus has become more or less dependent on government jobs over the last 26 years. Indeed, if there is any pattern at all, it appears that during economic downturns, the number of government jobs increase, and during periods of stability/recovery, government jobs decline. The early 1990s and late 2000s had high levels of governments jobs, both periods of recession. In June 2016, nearly 85% of the local economy was not government-related, not statistically much different than other Ohio cities.

Finally, let’s look at how total government jobs have changed since the beginning of this decade, 2010, by Ohio city. The figures are for June 2010 and June 2016.

Toledo: +2.75%
Columbus: -0.91%
Cleveland: -1.56%
Cincinnati: -3.72%
Dayton: -4.30%
Akron: -10.38%

All cities except Toledo have seen declines.

So that brings us to the actual makeup of the Columbus metro economy. What are the industries that most people work for? What are the industries that have the greatest % of the total jobs? Let’s compare June 1990 and June 2016.

1990
Trade/Transportation/Utilities: 20.51%
Government: 17.97%
Manufacturing: 13.49%
Professional and Business Services: 11.46%
Health and Education: 9.41%
Leisure and Hospitality: 8.63%
Financial Activities: 8.26%
Mining/Logging/Construction: 4.30%
Other Services: 3.46%
Information: 2.51%

2016
Trade/Transportation/Utilities: 18.37%
Professional and Business Services: 17.11%
Government: 15.30%
Health and Education: 14.43%
Leisure and Hospitality: 10.89%
Financial Activities: 7.63%
Manufacturing: 6.84%
Other Services: 4.10%
Mining/Logging/Construction: 3.75%
Information: 1.57%

If anything, Columbus’ economy is actually more diverse in 2016 than it was in 1990, not less.




Summer of Rain 2015

This summer has been wet… very wet. Rain has fallen on far more days than not, and cloud cover has hung thick and heavy in what are historically much sunnier months. To top it all off, temperatures have been somewhat below normal.

How wet has summer 2015 been up through today? Meteorological summer runs June 1st-August 31st, and today makes the midpoint of that period, so I thought it would be a good time to check in and answer that question.

Here are the top 10 wettest summers through yesterday.

1. 1958: 12.54″
2. 2008: 11.68″
3. 1990: 10.93″
4. 2015: 10.66″
5. 1949: 10.40″
6. 1973: 10.23″
7. 1917: 10.06″
8. 1928: 10.02″
9. 1937: 9.75″
10. 1969: 9.38″

So 2015 is running the 4th wettest. It looks to be dry the next few days before more thunderstorms and rain return, so 2015’s position may end up rising.

What are the wettest full summers of all time? A few of the above years went on to be in the top 10, but not all.

1. 1958: 22.02″
2. 1979: 20.92″
3. 1995: 19.85″
4. 2003: 19.39″
5. 1969: 19.09″
6. 1915: 18.92″
7. 1992: 18.44″
8. 1973: 17.81″
9. 1989: 17.45″
10. 1949: 16.54″

Summer 2015 needs about 6″ more to reach into the top 10 wettest summers, which at the current pace is more than possible.

Columbus Housing Market Update- June 2014

June’s housing data for the Columbus region was just released. The month continued the same story as the previous 5 months, with home sales down due to a lack of inventory. Prices continued to rise and the number of days to sell a home continued to fall in relation to this problem. As always, I looked at 21 major areas of the Columbus region, both urban and suburban. Here is how those areas performed.

Top 10 June 2014 Sales Totals
1. Columbus: 1,045
2. Upper Arlington: 109
3. Dublin: 108
4. Clintonville: 83
5. Westerville: 77
6. Gahanna: 63
7. Grove City: 62
8. Reynoldsburg: 59
9. New Albany: 38

Top 10 June 2014 Sales Increases over June 2013
1. Downtown: +72.0%
2. Grove City: +14.5%
3. Gahanna: +12.7%
4. German Village: +10.5%
5. Grandview Heights: +6.3%
6. Canal Winchester: +3.8%
7. Hilliard: 0.0%
8. Minerva Park: 0.0%
9. Columbus: -1.8%
10. Reynoldsburg: -5.1%

Top 10 Year-to-Date Sales Through June 2014
1. Columbus: 4,803
2. Dublin: 362
3. Grove City: 332
4. Clintonville: 323
5. Westerville: 299
6. Upper Arlington: 294
7. Reynoldsburg: 265
8. Hilliard: 258
9. Gahanna: 221
10. Pickerington: 136

Top 10 Year-to-Date Increases Through June 2014 Over 2013
1. Obetz: +42.1%
2. Downtown: +13.4%
3. Grove City: +11.0%
4. New Albany: +2.8%
5. Reynoldsburg: -0.4%
6. Westerville: -3.2%
7. Pataskala: -3.4%
8. German Village: -3.9%
9. Columbus: -5.3%
10. Clintonville: -5.8%

Average Sales June 2014
Urban: 122.3
Suburban: 55.1
Urban without Columbus: 30

Average % Change June 2014 vs. June 2013
Urban: -5.8%
Suburban: -5.1%
Urban without Columbus: -6.0%

Average YTD Sales Through June 2014
Urban: 545
Suburban: 222.6
Urban without Columbus: 119.2

Average YTD % Change YTD Through June 2014
Urban: -4.8%
Suburban: -5.3%
Urban without Columbus: -4.7%

Top 10 Average Sales Price June 2014
1. New Albany: $659,186
2. Upper Arlington: $389,575
3. Bexley: $382,496
4. Dublin: $377,541
5. German Village: $307,753
6. Downtown: $300,582
7. Worthington: $283,209
8. Grandview Heights: $246,271
9. Hilliard: $230,396
10. Gahanna: $229,845

Top 10 Average Sales Price % Change June 2014 vs. June 2013
1. Whitehall: +55.6%
2. Worthington: +17.7%
3. New Albany: +15.8%
4. Bexley: +15.6%
5. Columbus: +12.2%
6. Clintonville: +9.3%
7. Hilliard: +8.5%
8. Canal Winchester: +7.4%
9. Pickerington: +6.7%
10. Gahanna: +6.4%

Top 10 Average Sales Prices YTD Through June 2014
1. New Albany: $541,077
2. Dublin: $360,202
3. Upper Arlington: $348,160
4. Bexley: $334,491
5. Downtown: $305,215
6. German Village: $302,117
7. Worthington: $261,659
8. Grandview Heights: $245,946
9. Hilliard: $225,849
10. Gahanna: $213,782

Top 10 Average YTD Sales Price % Change Through June 2014 vs. 2013
1. Obetz: +24.7%
2. Grandview Heights: +15.5%
3. Worthington: +11.3%
4. Pataskala: +10.8%
5. Columbus: +10.6%
6. Pickerington: +9.9%
7. Canal Winchester: +9.5%
8. Downtown: +9.5%
9. Dublin: +9.2%
10. Westerville: +8.5%

Average Sales Price June 2014
Urban: $232,965
Suburban: $253,488
Urban without Columbus: $240,917

Average Sales Price Change June 2014 vs. June 2013
Urban: +7.6%
Suburban: +5.0%
Urban without Columbus: +7.1%

Average Sales Price YTD Through June 2014
Urban: $220,893
Suburban: $234,492
Urban without Columbus: $229,327

Average Sales Price % Change YTD Through June 2014
Urban: +6.6%
Suburban: +7.5%
Urban without Columbus: +6.2%

Top 10 Fastest Selling Markets June 2014 (Based on Average # of Days for Listings to Sell)
1. Worthington: 21
2. Upper Arlington: 36
3. Clintonville: 38
4. Gahanna: 39
5. Hilliard: 39
6. Dublin: 40
7. German Village: 42
8. Obetz: 45
9. Bexley: 46
10. Pataskala, Westerville: 47

Top 10 Fastest Selling Markets YTD Through June 2014
1. Worthington: 39
2. Minerva Park: 44
3. Upper Arlington: 44
4. Obetz: 46
5. Hilliard: 47
6. Clintonville: 52
7. Westerville: 53
8. Grandview Heights: 54
9. Dublin: 57
10. Bexley: 59

Average # of Days Before Sale, June 2014
Urban: 47.8
Suburban: 54.3
Urban without Columbus: 47.3

Average # of Days Before Sale YTD Through June 2014
Urban: 58.6
Suburban: 67.8
Urban without Columbus: 57.4

Top 10 Lowest Market Housing Supplies June 2014 (Based on # of Months to Sell all Listings)
1. Grandview Heights: 1.0
2. Worthington: 1.4
3. Westerville: 2.0
4. Clintonville: 2.1
5. German Village: 2.1
6. Gahanna: 2.3
7. Hilliard: 2.5
8. Minerva Park: 2.7
9. Obetz: 2.7
10. Upper Arlington: 2.7

A healthy housing supply is considered to be around 5-6 months. Anything less than 3 months is considered very low. Grandview’s 1 month is ridiculously low and the lowest reading I’ve seen for any area.

Average # of Months to Sell All Listings, June 2014
Urban: 2.7
Suburban: 3.5
Urban without Columbus: 2.6

Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales June 2014 vs. June 2013
Urban: +33.2%
Suburban: -5.4%
Urban without Columbus: +36.8%

Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales YTD Through June 2014 vs. YTD 2013
Urban: -8.8%
Suburban: -5.4%
Urban without Columbus: -8.9%


Average % Change of Condo Sales June 2014 vs. June 2013

Urban: -4.0%
Suburban: +41.0%
Urban without Columbus: -5.0%

Average % Change of Condo Sales YTD Through June 2014 vs. YTD 2013
Urban: +19.3%
Suburban: +7.0%
Urban without Columbus: +21.0%

June Precipitation Records: 1879-2012

Top 20 Wettest Junes
1. 2008: 10.39
2. 1958: 9.74
3. 1973: 8.77
4. 1902: 8.52
5. 1969: 8.19
6. 1949: 7.75
7. 1946: 7.25
8. 1998: 6.99
9. 1928: 6.94
10. 1937: 6.71
11. 1989: 6.36
12. 1901: 6.31
13. 1917: 6.29
14. 1941: 6.20
15. 1997: 6.19
16. 1939: 6.06
17. 1882: 6.01
18. 1981: 5.73
19. 1964: 5.71
20. 1970: 5.65

Top 20 Driest Junes
1. 1999: 0.65
2. 1984: 0.71
3. 1926: 0.96
4. 1894: 1.12
5. 1918, 1930, 1963: 1.25
6. 1899: 1.26
7. 1966: 1.28
8. 1988: 1.34
9. 1985: 1.41
10. 1906: 1.44
11. 1912: 1.48
12. 1959: 1.55
13. 1913: 1.56
14. 1888: 1.62
15. 1898: 1.63
16. 1925: 1.67
17. 1933: 1.71
18. 1919: 1.76
19. 1953: 1.79
20. 1994: 1.90

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*1870s include 1879 only, while the 2010s include 2010-2012.

Top 20 Largest Daily Rainfalls
1. 6/27/1932: 2.90
2. 6/11/2004: 2.89
3. 6/13/2003: 2.71
4. 6/3/1941: 2.66
5. 6/13/1981: 2.55
6. 6/28/1902, 6/10/1986: 2.50
7. 6/21/1885, 6/14/1964: 2.49
8. 6/26/2008: 2.31
9. 6/23/1901: 2.30
10. 6/25/1882: 2.26
11. 6/13/1958: 2.23
12. 6/8/1924: 2.13
13. 6/14/1990: 2.12
14. 6/2/1980: 2.09
15. 6/25/1937: 2.06
15. 6/9/1972: 1.98
16. 6/14/1970, 6/19/1973: 1.94
17. 6/19/1983: 1.88
18. 6/27/1946, 6/24/1969: 1.83
19. 6/12/2000: 1.76
20. 6/13/1881: 1.75

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June Temperature Records: 1879-2012

Top 20 Coldest Junes
1. 1972: 63.6
2. 1927: 65.6
3. 1928: 65.7
4. 1982: 65.8
5. 1916: 65.9
6. 1903: 66.0
7. 1955, 1985: 66.9
8. 1907, 1958, 1961: 67.2
9. 1992, 2003: 67.3
10. 1886, 1926, 1977, 1980: 67.4
11. 1969: 67.6
12. 1889, 1974: 67.7
13. 1917, 1989: 67.8
14. 1915: 68.0
15. 1902, 1912: 68.2
16. 1910, 1950: 68.4
17. 1979: 68.6
18. 1924: 69.0
19. 1885, 1935: 69.1
20. 1920, 2006: 69.2

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*The 1870s include 1879 only, while the 2010s include 2010-2012 only. This goes for all graphs.

Top 5 Coldest June Highs
1. 1972: 51
2. 1889, 1917: 52
3. 1907: 54
4. 1945, 1956, 1985: 55
5. 1903: 56

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Top 5 Coldest June Lows
1. 1972: 35
2. 1913, 1966, 1977, 1990: 39
3, 1894, 1910, 1929, 1980, 1988, 1992: 41
4. 1889, 1969: 42
5. 1912, 1917, 1945, 1948, 1979, 1993: 43

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Top 20 Warmest Junes
1. 1934: 77.9
2. 1943: 76.9
3. 1933: 76.1
4. 1919: 75.6
5. 1944: 75.5
6. 1991: 75.0
7. 1895: 74.9
8. 1890, 1925: 74.6
9. 1952, 1999: 74.5
10. 1921, 1939, 1949, 2005: 74.4
11. 2010: 74.3
12. 1892: 74.2
13. 1898, 1994: 73.9
14. 1899, 1971, 2002: 73.5
15. 1901: 73.4
16. 1942: 73.3
17. 2008, 2012: 73.2
18. 1940, 1984, 2007: 73.1
19. 1941, 1995: 73.0
20. 1880, 1884, 1954: 72.9

Top 5 Warmest June Highs

1. 1944: 102
2. 1934, 1988: 101
3. 1952, 2012: 100
4. 1895, 1901: 99
5. 1911, 1913, 1933, 1953, 1994: 98

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Top 5 Warmest June Lows
1. 1914, 1934, 1944: 77
2. 1879, 1880, 1927, 1943, 2008: 76
3. 1913, 1925, 1933, 1969: 75
4. 1890, 1891, 1901, 1921, 1930, 1941, 1959, 1998, 1999: 74
5. 1881, 1882, 1884, 1887, 1888, 1895, 1897, 1899, 1923, 1931, 1942, 1981, 1994, 1996, 1997, 2005: 73

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Top 10 Junes with the Most 90+ Highs
1. 1934: 17
2. 1943: 15
3. 1933, 1953: 14
4. 1952: 13
5. 1914, 1944, 1999: 12
6. 1894, 1913, 1966, 1988, 1994: 11
7. 1895, 1954, 1956, 1991: 10
8. 1925, 1941, 1949, 1963, 2005, 2012: 9
9. 1899, 1901, 1923, 1959: 8
10. 1888, 1890, 1930, 1931, 1936, 1942, 1968, 1984, 2008: 7

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