Historic Halloween Weather

1981-2010 Halloween Averages
High: 61
Low: 41
Mean: 51
Precipitation: 0.09″
Snowfall: 0.0″

Top 20 Warmest Halloween Highs
1. 1950: 83
2. 1974: 80
3. 1900: 79
4. 1927, 1933: 78
5. 1979, 2003: 75
6. 1882, 1901, 1982, 1999: 74
7. 1909, 1990: 73
8. 1888, 1935, 1944, 1987: 72
9. 1915, 1971: 71
10. 1919: 70
11. 1891, 1986, 2001, 2008: 69
12. 1929, 1956, 1978, 1981, 1985, 2005, 2007: 68
13. 1903, 1943, 1946, 1952, 1991, 2013: 67
14. 1902, 1916, 1953, 1965, 1984: 66
15. 1942, 1958, 1961, 1968, 1969, 2009: 65
16. 1896, 1897, 1912, 1921, 1922, 1940, 1945, 1964, 1997, 2004: 64
17. 1914, 1941, 1970, 2000, 2006: 63
18. 1886, 1924, 1934, 1959, 1977, 1983, 1998: 62
19. 1892, 1938, 1989, 1995: 61
20. 1963, 1966, 1994: 60

Top 20 Coldest Halloween Highs
1. 1906: 38
2. 1993: 39
4. 1878, 1895: 40
5. 1913, 1923, 1954: 41
6. 1885, 1917, 2012: 42
7. 1890: 43
8. 1908, 1925, 1926: 44
9. 1898, 1905: 45
10. 1930, 1976: 46
11. 1879, 1931, 2002: 47
12. 1894, 1918, 1939: 48
13. 1955, 1962, 1996, 2014: 49
14. 1880, 1972: 50
15. 1973, 2010, 2011: 52
16. 1907, 1951, 1988: 53
17. 1887, 1893, 1932, 2015: 54
18. 1883, 1928, 1949, 1975: 55
19. 1899, 1967: 56
20. 1884, 1911, 1937, 1957, 1980, 1992: 57

Top 20 Warmest Halloween Lows
1. 1919: 61
2. 1882: 60
3. 2003: 59
4. 1927, 1929: 58
5. 1900, 1956, 2013: 57
6. 1921, 1941, 1982: 56
7. 1950: 55
8. 1959, 1979: 54
9. 1971: 53
10. 1881, 1891, 1933, 1946, 1974, 1991: 52
11. 1901, 1984, 1998: 51
12. 1947: 50
13. 1961, 2001: 49
14. 1935, 1948, 1960, 1967, 1985, 1995, 1999: 48
15. 1889, 1896, 1909, 1943, 1977: 47
16. 1924, 1945, 2004, 2016: 46
17. 1899, 1911, 1916: 45
18. 1903, 1940, 2015: 44
19. 1965, 1970, 1973, 1981, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1997, 2009: 43
20. 1888, 1942, 1957, 1994, 2006: 42

Top 20 Coldest Halloween Lows
1. 1887: 20
2. 1962, 1988: 25
3. 1923: 27
4. 1908, 1925: 28
5. 1885, 1893, 1913, 1917, 1953, 1975: 29
6. 1904, 1906: 30
7. 1878, 1938, 1954, 1968: 31
8. 1928, 1934, 1949, 1958, 1964, 1976, 1980, 2000: 32
9. 1879, 1926, 1930: 33
10. 1890, 1936, 1951, 1966, 1969, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2008, 2010: 34
11. 1892, 1920: 35
12. 1894, 1895, 1932, 1955, 1978: 36
13. 1910, 1983: 37
14. 1886, 1898, 1914, 1939, 1944, 1963, 2007, 2012, 2014: 38
15. 1884, 1905, 1918, 1937, 2005, 2011: 39
16. 1880, 1883, 1907, 1952, 1972, 1986, 1987: 40
17. 1897, 1902, 1912, 1915, 1922, 1931: 41
18. 1888, 1942, 1957, 1994, 2006: 42
19. 1965, 1970, 1973, 1981, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1997, 2009: 43
20. 1903, 1940, 2015: 44

Top 20 Wettest Halloweens
1. 1932: 1.44″
2. 2009: 1.21″
3. 2013: 0.98″
4. 1941: 0.97″
5. 1919: 0.91″
6. 1942: 0.51″
7. 1960: 0.45″
8. 1905, 1973: 0.43″
9. 2006: 0.36″
10. 1989: 0.34″
11. 1976: 0.32″
12. 1993: 0.31″
13. 1972: 0.29″
14. 1994: 0.26″
15. 1895: 0.23″
16. 1959: 0.20″
17. 1948: 0.18″
18. 1889: 0.17″
19. 1921, 1951: 0.15″
20. 1963, 1967, 2012, 2014: 0.11″

Snowiest Halloweens
1. 1993: 1.0″
2. 1954: 0.2″
3. 1906, 1917, 1926, 1930, 1951, 2012: Trace

Greatest Snow Depth
1. 1954: Trace

Fall Weather Correlation to Winter Severity?

As we go into the winter season, it’s time to talk about how this one might end up. There’s a belief that fall weather is a good sign of how cold or warm winter will be. How true is that for Columbus? Also, what might any correlation mean for the winter of 2017-2018?

First, let’s just look at October temperatures.
The October normal mean temperature for Columbus is 55 degrees.

Between 1878 and 2016, there have been 47 Octobers that featured a mean temperature of 53.9 degrees or lower, what we’re considering a Cold October for the purposes of this comparison.
Of those 47 Octobers, 27 of the 47 had following winters that were colder than normal, or 57.4%, 13 had average temperature winters, or 27.7%, and the remaining 7 were warmer than normal, or 14.9%.
Interestingly, this category contains both the warmest winter on record- 1889-1890 and the coldest on record- 1976-1977- as shown by the chart below.

Next, we look at Normal Octobers, which are +/- 1 degree of the 1981-2010 Average of 55 degrees.
Between 1878 and 2016, there were 45 normal Octobers. Of those, 21 had colder than normal following winters, or 46.7%. 11 were followed by normal winters, or 24.4%, and 13 had warmer than normal winters, or 28.9%.

Finally, let’s look at warm Octobers, which are those with means of 56.1 degrees or higher. There were 46 Octobers with warmer than normal means since 1878. Of those, 18 featured following winters that were colder than normal, or 39.1%. Another 18, or 39.1%, were followed by average winters. The final 10 winters were warmer than normal. Here’s the graph.

So just based on the October mean temperature, Octobers that are colder than normal have a 47% higher chance of having a colder than normal winter than warmer than normal Octobers do. But is October a better indicator than November, a month that is closer to actual winter?

Colder than normal Novembers- 43.3 degrees or lower- included 78 Novembers since 1878. Of those, 38 or 48.7% had colder than normal winters. 21 (26.9%) had normal winters and 19 (24.4) had warmer than normal winters.

With the 38 normal Novembers, 43.4 to 45.4 degrees, there were 18 that had colder than normal winters, or 47.4%, with 11 normal winters (28.9%) and 9 warmer than normal winters (23.7%).

Finally, there were 24 warmer than normal Novembers since 1878- 45.5 degrees or higher. Only 6, or 25%, were followed by cold winters. An additional 9 (37.5%) were normal, while the last 9 (37.5%) were warmer than normal.

To reiterate, here are the ranked percentages of cold winters by the preceding October or November.
1. Cold Octobers: 57.4%
2. Cold Novembers: 48.7%
3. Normal Novembers: 47.4%
4. Normal Octobers: 46.7%
5. Warm Octobers: 39.1%
6. Warm Novembers: 25.0%

It should be no surprise that cold Octobers and Novembers have a stronger correlation to the following winters also being colder, with colder winters becoming increasingly unlikely as those months warm. Cold Octobers have a higher correlation than Cold Novembers, as well as Warm Octobers, but Normal Novembers have a slight advantage over Normal Octobers. Based on this, October actually has a stronger correlation to the following winter’s temperature mean than does November.

Going further, though, what about bi-monthly combinations?

Rank of Bi-Monthly Combinations and the percentage of colder than normal following winters, along with total years in sample:
Normal October/Normal November: 87.5% 8 Years
Cold October/Warm November: 57.1% 7 Years
Cold October/Cold November: 53.8% 26 Years
Normal October/Cold November: 48.1% 27 Years
Warm October/Cold November: 44.0% 25 Years
Cold October/Normal November: 38.5% 13 Years
Warm October/Warm November: 28.6% 7 Years
Warm October/Normal November: 26.7% 15 Years
Normal October/Warm November: 0.0% 8 Years

So a normal fall is clearly the best, but the sample size is not particularly high. Normal to Warm is unanimously warm, but again, it has a small sample size.

October 2017 has been overwhelmingly warm. While this wouldn’t normally bode well for a cold winter, each year is influenced by a multitude of factors.

1950s Ohio Severe Weather Reports Map

Interested in knowing where severe weather took place in Ohio during the 1950s? Here is a map for all the listed reports during that era. Click on the pins for more information.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1rAbADeNyKlqLT_7qvxUpURKXlHA&usp=sharing

The map incudes information for tornadoes, high wind and hail reports.

June 8, 1953 tornado damage.

Columbus Tornado History



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**Originally posted 5/8/2013. Updated 6/18/2017.

Now that spring is in full swing, I thought it would be a good time to highlight Columbus’ history with tornadoes. The city has been very lucky over the years and has yet to see a truly significant event. While western and southwestern parts of the state seem to get hit nearly every year, tornadic storms have either tended to miss Columbus or weaken before reaching there.

Before 1950, good records were not kept, but I’ve found at least one example.
On May 2, 1929, a tornado hit parts of Franklinton. The strength of this tornado is unknown, but 2 men were reported killed in a Franklinton jail, pictured below.

515 Sullivant Avenue, Franklinton. May 2, 1929

 

515 Sullivant Avenue, Franklinton. May 2, 1929

 

515 Sullivant Avenue, Franklinton. May 2, 1929

Since 1950, there have been 31 tornados that touched down in the Columbus area, the majority of them small and weak.

EF0 Tornadoes Since 1950
Total: 15

Most Significant EF0 Events
Widest: 500 yards on July 28, 1961. This tornado touched down near the intersection of Scioto Darby/Alton Darby Creek Roads on the Far West Side. It travelled about 1 mile and caused less than $50,000 in damage.
Longest Track: 1.76 miles on May 11, 2008. This 20 yard wide tornado touched down near I-70 and 142 and lifted at County Highway 12, causing less than $10,000 in damage.

EF0 Tornado Count By Decade
1950s: 1 on 6/26/1954
1960s: 2 on 7/28/1961 and 9/12/1963
1970s: 0
1980s: 1 on 6/13/1981
1990s: 4 on 6/2/1991, 8/27/1992, 7/1/1993 and 7/2/1997
2000s: 3, with 2 on 8/28/2006 and 1 on 5/11/2008
2010s*: 3 on 9/22/2010, 10/26/2010, 4/20/2011 and 6/4/2016.
*Through 7/18/2017.

There have been no injuries or deaths from EF0 tornadoes in Columbus.

EF1 Tornadoes Since 1950
Total: 9

Most Significant EF1 Events
Widest: 100 yards on 4/20/2011. This tornado touched down at Township Highway 12 and travelled 2.54 miles to Richardson Road, moving west to east.
Longest Track: 15 miles on 6/10/1986. This 73 yard wide tornado travelled from just east of Rt. 38 to just west of Galloway Road moving west to east.

EF1 Tornado Count by Decade
1950s: 3 on 10/11/1954, 4/28/1958 and 7/5/1959
1960s: 0
1970s: 3 on 7/26/1973, 6/17/1975 and 9/11/1975
1980s: 2 on 8/7/1984 and 6/10/1986
1990s: 0
2000s: 0
2010s*: 1 on 4/20/2011
*2010s through 6/18/2017.

Damage from the 6/17/1975 tornado.

There have been no injuries or deaths from EF1 tornadoes in Columbus.

EF2 Tornadoes Since 1950
Total: 6

Most Significant EF2 Events
Widest: 440 yards on 4/2/1970. This tornado touched down at the southeast corner of Walnut Street and S. Otterbein Avenue and travelled about 2 miles. It caused less than $500,000 in damage.
Longest Track: 17 Miles on 5/8/1973. This 67 yard wide tornado travelled from just north of W. Bridge Street at N. Fork Indian Run to Greenbriar Road just south of Rt. 36 in Sunbury.

EF2 Tornado Count by Decade
1950s: 0
1960s: 0
1970s: 4 on 5/8/1973, 5/25/1973, 5/30/1973 and 4/3/1974
1980s: 0
1990s: 0
2000s: 1 on 10/11/2006
2010s*: 0
*2010s through 6/18/2017.

1 injury was caused by an EF2 tornado in Columbus on 5/30/1973. No deaths have been caused.

EF3 Tornadoes Since 1950
Total: 2

Most Significant EF3 Events
Widest: 300 yards on 5/10/1973. The tract length and location of this tornado are not listed.
Longest Tract: 6 miles on 2/22/1971. This 100 yard wide tornado travelled from E. Broad at Cassingham Road to the corner of Mann Road and Howard Street in Howard Estates.

EF3 Tornado Count by Decade
1950s: 0
1960s: 0
1970s: 2 on 2/22/1971 and 5/10/1973
1980s: 0
1990s: 0
2000s: 0
2010s*: 0
*2010s through 6/18/2017.

Columbus Tornado of May 10, 1973

7 injuries occurred with the 2/22/1971 tornado. No deaths have occurred from an EF3 in Columbus.

No EF4s or EF5s have occurred in or near Columbus since 1950.

Most Tornadoes in 1 Day: 2 on 8/28/2006.
Most Tornadoes in 1 Month: 4 in May, 1973.
Most Tornadoes in 1 Year: 5 in 1973.

And a related article:
http://www.thelantern.com/campus/major-tornado-in-columbus-is-inevitable-1.2256497#.UYrfpWwo7IU

And see other Ohio severe weather reports here:
1950-1959
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1rAbADeNyKlqLT_7qvxUpURKXlHA&usp=sharing
1960-1969
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ZXOBycqe49RiIESSJjAlRiJ7BgM&usp=sharing