The Recovery of Ohio’s 3-C Downtowns: Revisit

A little more than 4 years ago, I posted numbers on how Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland were recovering in their urban cores. See that post here: http://allcolumbusdata.com/?p=289 and here: http://allcolumbusdata.com/?p=312 That post has proven to be one of the site’s most popular. I figured it was time to take a look at their continuing changes.

You can see by the chart for the 1950 Boundary population, the urban core of each city, that all 3-Cs suffered population losses post-1950. However, the rate of losses gradually declined, and 2 of the cities, Columbus and Cincinnati, appear to be growing in this boundary since at least 2010. Cleveland continues to lose.

This is shown further by the chart below.

As far as the actual Downtowns of each, here are the population trends.

For the most part, population declines in the 3-Cs peaked around 1980, give or take a decade. Since then, all of them have seen increases, with Cleveland seeing the most rapid increase and Cincinnati the least. Columbus has seen steady, but increasingly rapid growth with each subsequent decade since 1980.

Here is the chart for Downtown growth by decade.

2015 County Population Estimates Report

The US Census has released its population estimates for both counties and metros for the year ending July 1, 2015. Here is a detailed look at Ohio’s counties.

Ohio’s Top 25 Largest Counties

2010……………………………….2014………………………………..2015
1. Cuyahoga: 1,280,109….1. Cuyahoga: 1,263,796……1. Cuyahoga: 1,255,921
2. Franklin: 1,163,545……..2. Franklin: 1,234,126………2. Franklin: 1,251,722
3. Hamilton: 802,270……….3. Hamilton: 806,332……….3. Hamilton: 807,598
4. Summit: 541,671………..4. Summit: 542,600………….4. Summit: 541,968
5. Montgomery: 536,216….5. Montgomery: 532,515…..5. Montgomery: 532,258
6. Lucas: 441,575…………..6. Lucas: 434,615…………….6. Lucas: 433,689
7. Stark: 375,461…………….7. Stark: 375,638…………….7. Butler: 376,353
8. Butler: 369,064…………..8. Butler: 373,948…………….8. Stark: 375,165
9. Lorain: 301,471…………..9. Lorain: 304,187……………9. Lorain:305,147
10. Mahoning: 238,398……10. Mahoning: 233,398…….10. Mahoning: 231,900
11. Lake: 230,004…………..11. Lake: 229,220……………11. Lake: 229,245
12. Warren: 213,524………..12. Warren: 221,816………..12. Warren: 224,469
13. Trumbull: 209,854………13. Trumbull: 205,255……..13. Trumbull: 203,751
14. Clermont: 197,795……..14. Clermont: 201,375……..14. Clermont: 201,973
15. Delaware: 175,146……..15. Delaware: 189,237…….15. Delaware: 193,0134
16. Medina: 172,542………..16. Medina: 175,963………..16. Medina: 176,395
17. Licking: 166,480…………17. Licking: 169,407………..17. Licking: 170,570
18. Greene: 161,608………..18. Greene: 164,660………..18. Greene: 164,427
19. Portage: 161,448……….19. Portage: 162,235………..19. Porage: 162,275
20. Fairfield: 146,385……….20. Fairfield: 150,432………..20. Fairfield: 151,408
21. Clark: 148,246…………..21. Clark: 136,482……………21. Clark: 135,959
22. Wood: 125,940………….22. Wood: 129,575…………..22. Wood: 129,730
23. Richland: 124,173……..23. Richland: 121,914……….23. Richland: 121,707
24. Wayne: 114,439………..24. Wayne: 115,572………….24. Wayne: 116,063
25. Columbiana: 107,863…25. Columbiana: 105,597…..25. Columbiana: 104,806

From the numbers above, Columbus’ Franklin County was just below Cuyahoga last year. It is likely that, given each county’s growth rates, Franklin has now passed up Cuyahoga to become Ohio’s most populated county.

Top 25 Total Growth Counties 2010-2015

1. Franklin: +88,177
2. Delaware: +18,824
3. Warren: +11,601
4. Butler: +8,223
5. Fairfield: +5,256
6. Hamilton: +5,224
7. Clermont: +4,610
8. Wood: +4,242
9. Licking: +4,090
10. Medina: +4,062
11. Lorain: +3,791
12. Greene: +2,858
13. Union: +2,010
14. Miami: +1,718
15. Wayne: +1,549
16. Holmes: +1,543
17. Pickaway: +1,300
18. Athens: +1,113
19. Portage: +854
20. Hancock: +791
21. Geauga: +692
22. Madison: +664
23. Tuscarawas: +334
24. Morrow: +247
25. Muskingum: +216



Components of County Population Change

Top 25 Counties for Natural Growth (Births vs. Deaths) 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +50,736
2. Hamilton: +17,256
3. Butler: +7,785
4. Cuyahoga: +7,409
5. Lucas: +7,053
6. Delaware: +6,260
7. Montgomery: +5,007
8. Warren: +4,688
9. Clermont: +3,987
10. Summit: +3,194
11. Fairfield: +2,676
12. Lorain: +2,630
13. Holmes: +2,613
14. Wayne: +2,554
15. Licking: +2,482
16. Greene: +2,309
17. Medina: +2,040
18. Wood: +1,824
19. Union: +1,475
20. Hancock: +1,196
21. Allen: +1,115
22. Shelby: +1,038
23. Miami: +902
24. Putnam: +849
25. Huron: +815

Franklin County’s natural growth rate destroys every other county in the state. It gains almost 7x that of Cuyahoga County, despite Cuyahoga having a larger population during this period, and nearly 3x that of Hamilton County.

Top 25 Counties for Domestic Migration 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +11,715
2. Delaware: +10,532
3. Warren: +4,496
4. Fairfield: +1,691
5. Licking: +1,249
6. Medina: +1,234
7. Wood: +1,120
8. Pickaway: +711
9. Miami: +475
10. Union: +249
11. Madison: +246
12. Ottawa: +5
13. Clermont: -39
14. Morrow: -159
15. Morgan: -162
16. Monroe: -167
17. Washington: -177
18. Harrison: -198
19. Belmont: -221
20. Geauga: -320
21. Vinton: -361
22. Meigs: -401
23. Noble: -421
24. Van Wert: -431
25. Perry: -464

Again, Franklin County leads the pack, with Columbus metro counties performing the best statewide, as shown in the map below.

Top 25 Counties for International Migration 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +26,977
2. Cuyahoga: +16,926
3. Hamilton: +9,016
4. Montgomery: +5,380
5. Summit: +5,307
6. Butler: +4,066
7. Greene: +2,400
8. Lorain: +2,303
9. Warren: +2,198
10. Lucas: +2,194
11. Portage: +1,991
12. Delaware: +1,610
13. Athens: +1,586
14. Mahoning: +1,383
15. Wood: +1,026
16. Stark: +881
17. Lake: +729
18. Fairfield: +658
19. Clermont: +612
20. Medina: +578
21. Tuscarawas: +468
22. Wayne: +408
23. Licking: +404
24. Allen: +375
25. Miami: +359

Most Ohio counties saw increases in international migration, but once again, none came close to Franklin County’s total.

So there you have it, the updated numbers for Ohio’s counties.

Columbus’ Shrinking Annexation

Ever wonder how Columbus got so big in area? Its city limits stretch into parts of other counties and include about a third of Franklin County. Today, it has a reputation for annexing its way to growth, but how true is this?

Well, 50 years ago, it was more or less true. Today, not so much. Aggressive annexation began in Columbus in 1953, when Mayor Maynard “Jack” Sensenbrenner began his policy of requiring annexation into the city if communities wanted city water service. Between 1953 and 1960, the area size of the city more than doubled, and that rate continued through the 1960s and 1970s, even after Sensenbrenner was no longer mayor. After 1980, annexation rates gradually began to decline.

As the chart above shows, you can see the rapid rate of growth during the 1950s-1970s and the decline in more recent decades. Through the first 5 years of the 2010s, Columbus is on pace to add fewer than 3 square miles by 2020. Despite that fact, the city’s annual population growth since 2010 is exceeding the average annual growth of any decade during the mass annexation years. This strongly supports that the dynamic, and indeed, the story of Columbus’ growth is no longer about “fake” growth through the addition of existing land and population, but rather though the influx of new residents from outside of the city limits altogether. This is helping to gradually raise the city’s population density, which exceeded Cincinnati’s last year, as the chart below shows, along with a few other Columbus peers.

2014 City Population Estimates

The Census has released new estimates for July 1, 2013-July 1, 2014 for all 100 incorporated places of the metro area.

Total Population July 1, 2014
1. Columbus: 835,957
2. Newark (Licking): 47,839
3. Dublin: 44,214
4. Lancaster (Fairfield): 39,595
5. Grove City: 38,519
6. Westerville: 37,667
7. Delaware (Delaware): 37,372
8. Reynoldsburg: 36,711
9. Upper Arlington: 34,609
10. Gahanna: 34,257
11. Hilliard: 32,465
12. Marysville (Union): 22,708
13. Pickerington (Fairfield): 19,408
14. Whitehall: 18,558
15. Pataskala (Licking): 15,192
16. Worthington: 14,384
17. Bexley: 13,517
18. Circleville (Pickaway): 13,455
19. Powell (Delaware): 12,511
20. Heath (Licking): 10,456
21. London (Madison): 10,056
22. New Albany: 9,202
23. Canal Winchester: 7,704
24. Grandview Heights: 7,244
25. Logan (Hocking): 7,154
26. Granville (Licking): 5,723
27. Groveport: 5,672
28. Sunbury (Delaware): 4,909
29. Johnstown (Licking): 4,870
30. New Lexington (Perry): 4,717
31. Obetz: 4,706
32. Plain City (Madison): 4,295
33. West Jefferson (Madison): 4,272
34. Ashville (Pickaway): 4,149
35. Mount Gilead (Morrow): 3,662
36. Baltimore (Fairfield): 2,962
37. Buckeye Lake (Licking): 2,737
38. Crooksville (Perry): 2,493
39. Hebron (Licking): 2,386
40. Richwood (Union): 2,251
41. Utica (Licking): 2,176
42. Cardington (Morrow): 2,054
43. South Bloomfield (Pickaway): 1,812
44. Mount Sterling (Madison): 1,748
45. Commercial Point (Pickaway): 1,599
46. Somerset (Perry): 1,461
47. Bremen (Fairfield): 1,436
48. Ashley (Delaware): 1,354
49. Minerva Park: 1,306
50. Lithopolis (Fairfield): 1,290
51. Hanover (Licking): 1,103
52. Millersport (Fairfield): 1,048
53. Williamsport (Pickaway): 1,043
54. Urbancrest: 1,011
55. Thornville (Perry): 992
56. Pleasantville (Fairfield): 958
57. New Holland (Pickaway): 832
58. Milford Center (Union): 813
59. Junction City (Perry): 809
60. Amanda (Fairfield): 748
61. Shawnee Hills (Delaware): 729
62. New Straitsville (Perry): 713
63. Galena (Delaware): 684
64. Ostrander (Delaware): 674
65. Shawnee (Perry): 645
66. Valleyview: 630
67. Thurston (Fairfield): 609
68. Marble Cliff: 581
69. Corning (Perry): 573
70. Riverlea: 564
71. Stoutsville (Fairfield): 564
72. Kirkersville (Licking): 536
73. Carroll (Fairfield): 521
74. Laurelville (Hocking): 521
75. Alexandria (Licking): 518
76. Murray City (Hocking): 440
77. Edison (Morrow): 438
78. Sugar Grove (Fairfield): 429
79. Hartford (Licking): 400
80. St. Louisville (Licking): 374
81. South Solon (Madison): 361
82. Marengo (Morrow): 346
83. Harrisburg: 331
84. Midway (Madison): 327
85. Rushville (Fairfield): 304
86. Orient (Pickaway): 275
87. Magnetic Springs (Union): 273
88. Fulton (Morrow): 261
89. Lockbourne: 245
90. Unionville Center (Union): 236
91. Chesterville (Morrow): 231
92. Tarlton (Pickaway): 288
93. Darbyville (Pickaway): 226
94. Gratiot (Licking): 223
95. Glenford (Perry): 176
96. Sparta (Morrow): 163
97. Hemlock (Perry): 155
98. West Rushville (Fairfield): 135
99. Brice: 120
100. Rendville (Perry): 36

Total Change July 1st 2013-July 1, 2014 and Census 2010-July 1, 2014 in ()

1. Columbus: +12,241 (+48,924)
2. Hilliard: +1,458 (+4,030)
3. Grove City: +1,000 (+2,944)
4. Delaware: +764 (+2,619)
5. Dublin: +585 (+2,463)
6. Worthington: +522(+809)
7. New Albany: +373 (+1,478)
8. Pickerington: +356 (+1,117)
9. Powell: +279 (+1,011)
10. Lancaster: +279 (+815)
11. Grandview Heights: +273 (+708)
12. Marysville: +262 (+614)
13. Gahanna: +190 (+1,009)
14. Reynoldsburg: +186 (+818)
15. Sunbury: +179 (+520)
16. Canal Winchester: +162 (+603)
17. Upper Arlington: +141 (+838)
18. Westeville: +115 (+1,547)
19. London: +90 (+152)
20. Circleville: +84 (+141)
21. Lithopolis: +68 (+184)
22. Newark: +65 (+266)
23. Plain City: +51 (+70)
24. Whitehall: +48 (+496)
25. Bexley: +46 (+460)
26. Logan: +42 (+2)
27. Johnstown: +41 (+238)
28. Hanover: +41 (+182)
29. West Jefferson: +41 (+50)
30. Groveport: +34 (+309)
31. Ashville: +31 (+52)
32. Pataskala: +26 (+230)
33. South Bloomfield: +26 (+68)
34. Urbancrest: +26 (+51)
35. Obetz: +25 (+174)
36. Hebron: +20 (+50)
37. Buckeye Lake: +19 (-9)
38. Utica: +17 (+44)
39. Mount Sterling: +17 (-34)
40. Heath: +16 (+146)
41. Galena: +15 (+31)
42. Ostrander: +15 (+31)
43. Commercial Point: +11 (+17)
44. Richwood: +9 (+22)
45. Williamsport: +9 (+20)
46. Baltimore: +8 (-4)
47. Cardington: +7 (+7)
48. Amanda: +6 (+11)
49. Millersport: +5 (+4)
50. New Holland: +4 (+31)
51. Milford Center: +4 (+21)
52. Bremen: +4 (+11)
53. Kirkersville: +4 (+11)
54. South Solon: +4 (+6)
55. Alexandria: +4 (+1)
56. Shawnee Hills: +3 (+48)
57. Minverva Park: +3 (+34)
58. Riverlea: +3 (+19)
59. Marble Cliff: +3 (+8)
60. Tarlton: +3 (+6)
61. Midway: +3 (+5)
62. Thurston: +3 (+5)
63. Ashley: +2 (+24)
64. Harrisburg: +2 (+11)
65. Magnetic Springs: +2 (+5)
66. Orient: +2 (+5)
67. Darbyville: +2 (+4)
68. Stoutsville: +2 (+4)
69. Sugar Grove: +2 (+3)
70. Pleasantville: +2 (-2)
71. Lockbourne: +1 (+8)
72. Brice: +1 (+6)
73. Marengo: +1 (+4)
74. Chesterville: +1 (+3)
75. Fulton: +1 (+3)
76. Hartford: +1 (+3)
77. Unionville Center: +1 (+3)
78. Gratiot: +1 (+2)
79. Mount Gilead: +1 (+2)
80. Rushville: +1 (+2)
81. St. Louisville: +1 (+1)
82. West Rushville: +1 (+1)
83. Laurelville: +1 (-6)
84. Valleyview: 0 (+10)
85. Glenford: 0 (+3)
86. Sparta: 0 (+2)
87. Thornville: 0 (+1)
88. Hemlock: 0 (0)
89. Rendville: 0 (0)
90. Carroll: 0 (-3)
91. Murray City: 0 (-9)
92. Edison: -1 (+1)
93. Granville: -2 (+77)
94. Corning: -3 (-10)
95. New Straitsville: -3 (-9)
96. Junction City: -4 (-10)
97. Shawnee: -4 (-10)
98. Somerset: -7 (-20)
99. Crooksville: -14 (-41)
100. New Lexington: -24 (-14)

Places growing 2013-2014: 83 of 100 or 83%.
Places growing 2010-2014: 84 of 100 or 84%.

Places that grew 2000-2010: 70 of 100 or 70%.

Columbus Slowly Becoming Ohio’s Largest Job Market- In One Graph

The Columbus metro has long been Ohio’s 3rd largest labor market, but that seems to be changing over time.

The January 2015 labor force jumped to a record high, and if trends hold, may pass the other 2 Cs by the end of the year.