Where Racial Groups are Growing Fastest in Franklin County




The US Census recently released updated estimates for 2016 for smaller-area designations like tracts and blocks. Looking at them, I wanted to see where individual racial groups were growing the fastest at that level.
The first map is based on the % change from 2010 to 2016.

What’s interesting about this map is that it is such a hodgepodge. No single part of the county is dominated by growth in any specific racial group. However, a few things can be generally determined. For example, almost all of the tracts where the White population is growing the fastest are within I-270, and the majority of those within the eastern half of the Columbus in what have long been dominated by Black majority populations. These areas include parts of Linden, the Near South and Near East sides. That said, the White population was growing the fastest in just 30 census tracts by % change. This compared to 53 for the Black population, 83 for the Asian population and 107 for the Hispanic population.

The next map takes a slightly different approach, measuring the TOTAL change in population, rather than by %.

Again, a hodgepodge, but much less so than before. Instead of being the fastest-growing in just 30 tracts, the White population rockets up to 108 tracts. This shows that, while Asian and Hispanic populations have respectable % growth, this is largely based on comparatively small population bases. Still, non-White populations are clearly making inroads throughout Franklin County.

For more information on demographics, go to: Columbus Demographics
And for Franklin County racial and economic maps, go to: Census Tract and Zip Code Maps




Young Professionals: A Comparison

**Updated 11/22/2017.

Millennials and Young Professionals are big news these days. Millennials are the largest generation ever in terms of total numbers (exceeding 76 million), and their choices are already having big impacts on everything from housing to the economy, and Young Professionals have long been an important urban demographic. I wanted to look at Columbus and its peers to see where it ranks in terms of attracting the 25-34 age group that include these demographics.

For the comparison, I looked at metro areas of 1.5-2.5 million as well as major Midwest metros and then used their core cities to get the numbers.

Rank of Total Population Aged 25-34

2005_______________________2010___________________2016

1. Chicago: 463,236_______1. Chicago: 510,042________1. Chicago: 532,349
2. San Antonio: 180,981_____2. San Antonio: 200,645____2. San Antonio: 241,783
3. Austin: 137,523_________3. Austin: 162,247_________3. Austin: 214,687
4. San Jose, CA: 133,144___4. Columbus: 147,584______4. Columbus: 180,685
5. Columbus: 131,641______5. San Jose, CA: 142,551___5. San Jose, CA: 165,408
6. Indianapolis: 114,532_____6. Indianapolis: 133,088____6. Charlotte, NC: 149,024
7. Detroit: 110,759_________7. Charlotte, NC: 127,539___7. Indianapolis: 143,328
8. Charlotte, NC: 100,025____8. Portland, OR: 113,210___8. Nashville: 130,593
9. Portland, OR: 90,023_____9. Nashville: 110,882______9. Portland: 127,557
10. Las Vegas: 84,418______10. Milwaukee: 97,359____10. Milwaukee: 101,449
11. Milwaukee: 82,060______11. Detroit: 85,023_______11. Detroit: 101,246
12. Sacramento, CA: 75,497___12. Minneapolis: 81,532__12. Sacramento: 92,883
13. Minneapolis: 74,208___13. Las Vegas: 81,212______13. Minneapolis: 90,022
14. Kansas City, MO: 68,060__14. Sacramento: 78,527__14. Las Vegas: 84,756
15. Virginia Beach: 60,749__15. Kansas City: 73,872____15. Kansas City: 81,532
16. Omaha, NE: 56,248____16. Virginia Beach: 67,614__16. Virginia Beach: 75,365
17. Wichita, KS: 52,426____17. Omaha: 62,396________17. Omaha: 72,055
18. Cleveland: 50,558_____18. St. Louis: 57,627_______18. Orlando: 63,947
19. St. Louis: 48,137______19. Wichita: 56,737________19. Pittsburgh: 62,515
20. Cincinnati: 44,945_____20. Cleveland: 54,428______20. St. Louis: 61,777
21. Toledo: 43,134_______21. Pittsburgh: 51,109______21. Cleveland: 58,773
22. Orlando: 40,846______22. St. Paul: 50,107________22. Wichita: 57,869
23. St. Paul, MN: 39,676__23. Cincinnati: 49,067_______23. St. Paul: 55,306
24. Lincoln, NE: 38,893___24. Orlando: 48,102________24. Cincinnati: 54,754
25. Madison, WI: 38,826___25. Madison: 44,662_______25. Madison: 48,759
26. Pittsburgh: 38,744____26. Lincoln: 42,034_________26. Lincoln: 43,882
27. Grand Rapids: 35,287__27. Toledo: 41,580________27: Toledo: 42,888
28. Des Moines: 32,640__28. Fort Wayne: 35,193______28. Grand Rapids: 39,829
29. Fort Wayne, IN: 31,738__29. Providence: 31,044____29. Fort Wayne: 37,372
30. Akron: 30,436_______30. Grand Rapids: 30,963____30. Des Moines: 34,961
31. Providence, RI: 29,307__31. Des Moines: 30,376____31. Providence: 30,630
32. Dayton: 18,591_______32. Akron: 27,446_________32. Akron: 29,786
33. Youngstown: 8,505____33. Dayton: 20,278________33. Dayton: 22,930
34. Nashville, TN: N/A___34. Youngtown: 8,484_______34. Youngstown: 7,621

So Columbus ranks highly among total population in the 25-34 age group. But what about growth?

Total Growth Rank in 25-34 Population 2005-2016

1. Austin, TX: 77,164
2. Chicago: 69,113
3. San Antonio, TX: 60,802
4. Columbus: 49,044
5. Charlotte, NC: 48,999
6. Portland, OR: 37,534
7. San Jose, CA: 32,264
8. Indianapolis, IN: 28,796
9. Pittsburgh, PA: 23,771
10. Orlando, FL: 23,101
11. Milwaukee, WI: 19,389
12. Sacramento, CA: 17,386
13. Minneapolis, MN: 15,814
14. Omaha, NE: 15,807
15. St. Paul, MN: 15,630
16. Virginia Beach, VA: 14,616
17. St. Louis, MO: 13,642
18. Kansas City, MO: 13,472
19. Madison, WI: 9,933
20. Cincinnati: 9,809
21. Cleveland: 8,215
22. Fort Wayne, IN: 5,634
23. Wichita, KS: 5,443
24. Lincoln, NE: 4,989
25. Grand Rapids, MI: 4,542
26. Dayton: 4,339
27. Des Moines, IA: 2,321
28. Providence, RI: 1,323
29. Las Vegas, NV: 338
30. Toledo: -246
31. Akron: -650
32. Youngstown: -884
33. Detroit, MI: -9,513
34. Nashville: N/A

Again, Columbus ranks near the top during this period. What about more recently, since 2010?

Total Growth Rank of 25-34 Population 2010-2016

1. Austin: 52,440
2. San Antonio: 41,138
3. Columbus: 33,101
4. San Jose: 22,857
5. Chicago: 22,307
6. Charlotte: 21,485
7. Nashville: 19,711
8. Detroit: 16,223
9. Orlando: 15,845
10. Sacramento: 14,356
11. Portland: 14,347
12. Pittsburgh: 11,406
13. Indianapolis: 10,240
14. Omaha: 9,659
15. Grand Rapids: 8,866
16. Minneapolis: 8,490
17. Virginia Beach: 7,751
18. Kansas City: 7,660
19. Cincinnati: 5,687
20. St. Paul: 5,199
21. Des Moines: 4,585
22. Cleveland: 4,345
23. St. Louis: 4,152
24. Madison: 4,097
25. Milwaukee: 4,090
26. Las Vegas: 3,544
27. Dayton: 2,652
28. Akron: 2,340
29. Fort Wayne: 2,179
30. Lincoln: 1,848
31. Toledo: 1,308
32. Wichita: 1,132
33. Providence: -414
34. Youngstown: -863

So Columbus is also doing well since 2010 and attracts significantly more people in the 25-34 age group than cities often cited for this very metric.

Finally, now that we know the totals and the growth, what is the % of total city population that the 25-34 age group makes up?

25-34 % of Total City Population 2016

1. Orlando: 23.1%
2. Austin: 22.6%
3. Minneapolis: 21.8%
4. Columbus: 20.9%
5. Pittsburgh: 20.6%
6. Grand Rapids: 20.3%
7. Portland: 19.9%
8. Nashville: 19.8%
9. St. Louis: 19.8%
10. Chicago: 19.7%
11. Madison: 19.3%
12. Sacramento: 18.8%
13. Cincinnati: 18.3%
14. St. Paul: 18.3%
15. Charlotte: 17.7%
16. Providence: 17.1%
17. Milwaukee: 17.0%
18. Kansas City: 16.9%
19. Indianapolis: 16.8%
20. Virginia Beach: 16.7%
21. Des Moines: 16.2%
22. San Antonio: 16.2%
23. Omaha: 16.1%
24. San Jose: 16.1%
25. Lincoln: 15.7%
26. Toledo: 15.4%
27. Cleveland: 15.2%
28. Akron: 15.1%
29. Detroit: 15.0%
30. Wichita: 14.8%
31. Fort Wayne: 14.3%
32. Las Vegas: 13.4%
33. Youngstown: 11.9%
34. Dayton: 8.2%

Columbus has an existing large population of the 25-34 age demographic, and looks to be one of the strongest performers into the near future.
Some would ask why that would be considering that Columbus transit is woefully lacking and has a reputation (very undeservedly, in my opinion) of being suburban- characteristics that Millennials/YPers supposedly almost universally reject. Perhaps the bottom line is that economics trump all other desires. Cost of living and employment tend to be higher up the list than rail lines, and Columbus has both a strong economy and relatively low COL. Whatever the case may be, Columbus seems to be doing something right.

For more information on demographics, go to: Columbus Demographics
And for Franklin County racial and economic maps, go to: Census Tract and Zip Code Maps

The Midwest Beat the South in Regional Domestic Migration in 2016

For years, if not decades, we’ve been hearing a familiar tale- that anyone and everyone is moving from the Midwest and Northeast to the South and West. This trend began during and after the collapse of Northern manufacturing, and as higher cost of living began to make the lower-cost South more attractive in particular. However, a lot of the South’s growth over the years- indeed a majority- never had anything to do with region-to-region migration. Instead, it was due largely to natural growth (births vs. deaths) and international migration, particularly from Central America. What received all the attention, though, was the belief that people were packing up and moving to the South from places like Ohio and other struggling Northern states. While that may have been true for a while, that is increasingly looking like it is no longer the case.

The Midwest, especially, has been derided as the region no one wants to live in. Despite its growing population approaching 66 million people, the common refrain was that its colder winters, flailing economies and questionable demographic future meant that it was simply a region being left behind by the booming Southern states.

Recently, the US Census released estimates for 2015-2016 geographic mobility, and they tell a very different story altogether.

First, let’s look at the total domestic migration moving to the Midwest from other regions.
South to Midwest: +309,000
West to Midwest: +72,000
Northeast to Midwest: +61,000
Total to Midwest: +442,000

And then compare that to the total that the Midwest sends to other regions.
Midwest to South: -254,000
Midwest to West: -224,000
Midwest to Northeast: -34,000
Total from Midwest: -512,000

Net difference by region.
Midwest vs. South: +55,000
Midwest vs. West: -152,000
Midwest vs. Northeast: +27,000
Total Net: -70,000

So while the Midwest is seeing and overall net domestic migration loss, it is entirely to the Western states.

This could just be an off year, as almost all recent years showed losses to the South, but then again, maybe not. The South has been in a boom for several decades now, and in that time, the region still lags the other 3 in almost every quality of life metric used. All booms end eventually, and the South’s 2 biggest perceived advantages, low cost of living and business-friendly climate, have been gradually eroding over time. As Census surveys show, people don’t actually move for a change in weather, so it’s the economic factors that are going to make the biggest impacts long-term. The Midwest now has many cities and several states that are doing well economically, including Columbus, and perhaps they are becoming more attractive than they have in many years. Time will tell, but last year, the narrative of an unattractive Midwest vs. South was at least temporarily shelved.

Metro Population Density Comparison- 2016 Update




I originally posted some data on this subject back in March 2013, which included this information for 2011 and 2012. I have updated to include new information.

The Columbus Metropolitan Area resides within a group of metros between 1.5 and 2.5 million people. I wanted to take a look at population densities between that group of metros to see how different they really are and where Columbus might fall within them.

Metro Area Size in Square Miles (Land Only) in 2016
1. Las Vegas, NV: 7,891
2. San Antonio, TX: 7,340
3. Kansas City, MO: 7,255
4. Portland, OR: 6,683
5. Nashville, TN: 6,300
6. Pittsburgh, PA: 5,282
7. Sacramento, CA: 5,096
8. Charlotte, NC: 5,068
9. Columbus: 4,796
10. Cincinnati: 4,391
11. Indianapolis, IN: 4,306
12. Austin, TX: 4,219
13. Orlando, FL: 3,477
14. San Jose, CA: 2,679
15. Virginia Beach, VA: 2,089
16. Cleveland: 1,996
17. Providence, RI: 1,587
18. Milwaukee, WI: 1,455

Metro Area Population Census 2010 and July 1, 2016 (using 2013 updated boundaries)
2010———————————————————-2016
1. Pittsburgh: 2,356,285————————–1. Charlotte: 2,474,314
2. Portland: 2,226,009—————————-2. Orlando: 2,441,257
3. Charlotte: 2,217,012—————————3. San Antonio: 2,429,609
4. Sacramento: 2,149,127———————–4. Portland: 2,424,955
5. San Antonio: 2,142,508———————–5. Pittsburgh: 2,342,299
6. Orlando: 2,134,411—————————–6. Sacramento: 2,296,418
7. Cincinnati: 2,114,580————————–7. Cincinnati: 2,165,139
8. Cleveland: 2,077,240————————–8. Las Vegas: 2,155,664
9. Kansas City: 2,009,342———————–9. Kansas City: 2,104,509
10. Las Vegas: 1,951,269———————–10. Austin: 2,056,405
11. Columbus: 1,901,974————————11. Cleveland: 2,055,612
12. Indianapolis: 1,887,877———————-12. Columbus: 2,041,520
13. San Jose: 1,836,911————————-13. Indianapolis: 2,004,230
14. Austin: 1,716,289—————————–14. San Jose: 1,978,816
15. Virginia Beach: 1,676,822——————15. Nashville: 1,865,298
16. Nashville: 1,670,890————————-16. Virginia Beach: 1,726,907
17. Providence: 1,600,852———————-17. Providence: 1,614,750
18. Milwaukee: 1,555,908———————–18. Milwaukee: 1,572,482

Metro Area Population Density by Square Mile Census 2010 and July 1, 2016
2010—————————————–2016
1. Milwaukee: 1069.4—————1. Milwaukee: 1080.7
2. Cleveland: 1040.5—————-2. Cleveland: 1029.7
3. Providence: 1008.7—————3. Providence: 1017.5
4. Virginia Beach: 802.7———–4. Virginia Beach: 826.7
5. San Jose: 685.7——————5. San Jose: 738.6
6. Orlando: 613.9——————–6. Orlando: 702.1
7. Cincinnati: 481.6—————–7. Cincinnati: 493.1
8. Pittsburgh: 446.1—————–8. Charlotte: 488.2
9. Indianapolis: 438.4—————9. Austin: 487.4
10. Charlotte: 437.5—————-10. Indianapolis: 465.4
11. Sacramento: 421.7————11. Sacramento: 450.6
12. Austin: 406.8——————–12. Pittsburgh: 443.4
13. Columbus: 396.6—————13. Columbus: 425.7
14. Portland: 333.1—————–14. Portland: 362.9
15. San Antonio: 291.9————15. San Antonio: 331.0
16. Kansas City: 277.0————16. Nashville: 296.1
17. Nashville: 265.2—————-17. Kansas City: 290.1
18. Las Vegas: 247.3————–18. Las Vegas: 273.2

Density Change Rank 2010-2016
1. Orlando: 88.3
2. Austin: 80.6
3. San Jose: 53.0
4. Charlotte: 50.8
5. San Antonio: 39.1
6. Nashville: 30.9
7. Portland: 29.8
8. Columbus: 29.1
9. Sacramento: 28.9
10. Indianapolis: 27.0
11. Las Vegas: 25.9
12. Virginia Beach: 24.0
13. Kansas City: 13.1
14. Cincinnati: 11.5
15. Milwaukee: 11.4
16. Providence: 8.8
17. Pittsburgh: -2.6
18. Cleveland: -10.8

Core County Population Census 2010 and July 1, 2016 by Rank
2010————————————————————-2016
1. Clark (Las Vegas): 1,951,269———————1. Clark: 2,155,664
2. Santa Clara (San Jose): 1,781,642————–2. Bexar: 1,928,680
3. Bexar (San Antonio): 1,714,773——————3. Santa Clara: 1,919,402
4. Sacramento (Sacramento): 1,418,788———-4. Sacramento: 1,514,460
5. Cuyahoga: 1,280,122——————————-5. Orange: 1,314,367
6. Allegheny (Pittsburgh): 1,223,348—————6. Franklin: 1,264,518
7. Franklin: 1,163,414———————————-7. Cuyahoga: 1,249,352
8. Orange (Orlando): 1,145,956———————8. Allegheny: 1,225,365
9. Travis: (Austin): 1,024,266————————9. Travis: 1,199,323
10. Milwaukee (Milwaukee): 947,735————–10. Mecklenburg: 1,054,835
11. Mecklenburg (Charlotte): 919,628————-11. Milwaukee: 951,448
12. Marion (Indianapolis): 903,393—————–12. Marion: 941,229
13. Hamilton: 802,374———————————13. Hamilton: 809,099
14. Multnomah (Portland): 735,334—————-14. Multnomah: 799,766
15. Jackson (Kansas City): 674,158—————15. Jackson: 691,801
16. Davidson (Nashville): 626,681——————16. Davidson: 684,410
17. Providence (Providence): 626,667————17. Providence: 633,473
18. Virginia Beach (Virginia Beach): 437,994—18. Virginia Beach: 452,602

Core County Population Density Per Square Mile Census 2010 and July 1, 2016 by Rank
2010———————————————————————— 2016
1. Milwaukee: 3932.5————————–1. Milwaukee: 3947.9
2. Cuyahoga: 2801.1————————–2. Franklin: 2376.9
3. Marion: 2279.6——————————3. Marion: 2375.0
4. Franklin: 2186.9—————————–4. Cuyahoga: 2733.8
5. Hamilton: 1976.3—————————-5. Mecklenburg: 2013.0
6. Virginia Beach: 1759.0——————–6. Hamilton: 1992.9
7. Mecklenburg: 1755.0———————–7. Multnomah: 1855.6
8. Multnomah: 1706.1————————8. Virginia Beach: 1817.7
9. Allegheny: 1675.8————————–9. Allegheny: 1678.6
10. Providence: 1528.5———————-10. Sacramento: 1569.4
11. Sacramento: 1470.2———————11. Bexar: 1555.4
12. Bexar: 1382.9—————————–12. Providence: 1545.1
13. Santa Clara: 1381.1———————13. Santa Clara: 1487.9
14. Orange: 1269.1—————————14. Orange: 1455.6
15. Davidson: 1243.4————————15. Davidson: 1358.0
16. Jackson: 1116.2————————–16. Travis: 1211.4
17. Travis: 1034.6—————————–17. Jackson: 1145.4
18. Clark: 247.3——————————–18. Clark: 273.2

The core counties of metros within the Midwest are clearly the most dense, with most hovering between 1500-2500 people per square mile. Columbus’ Franklin County moved up to 2nd most dense in 2016.

Core County Population Density Change 2010-2016
1. Mecklenburg: 258.0
2. Franklin: 190.0
3. Orange: 186.5
4. Travis: 176.8
5. Bexar: 172.5
6. Multnomah: 149.5
7. Davidson: 114.5
8. Santa Clara: 106.8
9. Sacramento: 99.1
10. Marion: 95.5
11. Virginia Beach: 58.7
12. Jackson: 29.2
13. Clark: 25.9
14. Providence: 16.6
15. Hamilton: 16.6
16. Milwaukee: 15.4
17. Allegheny: 2.8
18. Cuyahoga: -67.3

Columbus’ Franklin County densified at the 2nd fastest rate 2010-2016 of any of its metro peers, indicating that it’s receiving a large portion of the total metro population growth.

To see other metro population data, go to http://allcolumbusdata.com/?p=6139




Before and After April 2017

I haven’t done a Before and After installment for a while. This time around, I chose to not focus on any single neighborhood.

First up is a photo of the construction of the Columbus Interurban Terminal, looking northwest from 3rd. The photo was taken on October 5, 1911, about 3 months before the building opened. The interurban system was relatively short-lived in the city, and the terminal closed after only 26 years in 1938. The building survived as a grocery store through the mid-1960s before the building was demolished in 1967 as part of the construction of the Greyhound Bus Terminal across the street. The actual location of the building was not on the Greyhound site, but was used as an overflow parking lot. It remained a parking lot until the mid-1980s, when it became part of the City Centre Mall site. Today, plans are for the site to become the location for the 12-story, Two25 mixed-use project.

Here is the same place in September 2016.

And the near future.

The second historic photo is of the #57 streetcar on Kelton Avenue just south of the Oak Street intersection. The photo, which looks north, was taken on June 30, 1915 and includes 3 separate visible buildings as well. The house on the left actually survived until 1977, when it and the rest of the east half of the block was demolished. The building visible on the right is the surviving streetcar barn. Today, it is in bad shape, and while many would like to see it renovated and saved, time seems to be running out. The other surviving building, barely visible in the 1915 photo, is the tenement building on the northwest corner of Oak and Kelton.

And in November 2015.

Third in this list is a photo of the demolition of the old Franklin County Jail, once located at 36 E. Fulton Street in Downtown. Built in 1889, the structure survived until the fall of 1971, when the building, which by then had become outdated for its intended purpose, was torn down to make way for- what else- a parking garage. The parking garage remains to the present day. Columbus leaders at the time should’ve been flogged for such short-sighted thinking, something that was repeated over and over and over again during that era. Today, such a very cool, gothic building would’ve made an excellent candidate for mixed-use conversion.

And in August 2016.

Finally, this next photo isn’t really historic. It was taken a mere 15 years ago in February, 2002, looking northwest from the corner of N. High Street and 10th Avenue. At the time, this area had been made up of low-rise historic buildings that had long held bars for OSU students. All these buildings in the photo, and many more, were demolished not long after the photo was taken in order to make room for the South Campus Gateway, now more or less just called the Gateway. Similar large-scale demolitions are taking place to the north and south as the entirety of the High Street corridor around Campus is transformed. Whether that is good or bad depends on who you ask. What can be agreed upon, however, is that the corridor will be almost unrecognizable in the end.

And in October, 2016.