Cool Link of the Day: Mapping Commuting Patterns

Curious to know how people get to work in every county in the United States? Use the following link to find out.
http://flowingdata.com/2015/01/20/how-americans-get-to-work/

The map was constructed using 2013 data, so it’s fairly recent. As for Franklin County? Here’s the breakdown:

Drive Alone: 82%
Carpool: 8%
Public Transit: 2%
Walk: 2%
Bicycle: 1%
Taxi or Other: 1%
Work from Home: 4%

The numbers are overwhelmingly auto-centric, as they are nearly everywhere, but what the numbers don’t show are any trends.

2013 Census Tract Estimates

The Census released updated tract estimates for 2013, and they showed some interesting things. There are 285 census tracts that make up Franklin County.

First, let’s take a look at the Franklin County trends 2000-2013.

In regards to the above map, it’s a mix of both the 2013 official estimates and some that I did. For example, the official estimates had the Downtown tracts 30 and 40 losing population, as well as most of the Short North. That’s rather absurd considering the level of residential construction in these areas, as well as population estimates the city has done in the last few years for Downtown. In fact, the 2013 official estimates have Downtown tract population BELOW 2010. That’s just not the reality. So I looked over the tracts and adjusted them according to their long-term growth/decline trends. Most of them I left alone, but some adjustments had to be made. However, I was very conservative with any changes, and several tracts that the official estimates showed gains, I actually had losses.

Here are all the tracts that grew by at least 300 people between 2010 and 2013 in Franklin County, as well as their locations.

Blacklick #7395: +1,609
Dublin #6230: +1,214
Columbus-West Side #7951: +1,002
Columbus-Northwest #6372: +966
Columbus Northeast #6931: +963
Hilliard #7921: +955
Columbus-East Side #9361: +952
Columbus-West Side #8350: +951
Columbus-Northwest: #6384: +949
Dublin #6220: +933
Columbus-West Side #8141: +921
Columbus-Easton #7551: +793
Columbus-Southeast #9373: +749
Hilliard #7933: +688
Minerva Park #7112: +675
Columbus-South Side #8340: +652
Hilliard #7954: +643
Columbus North Side #7044: +636
Columbus Northeast #7132: +615
Columbus Northwest #6396: +557
Dublin #6386: +549
Columbus North Side #6921: +540
Columbus Northwest #6393: +492
Columbus-West Side: +489
Gahanna #7492: +473
New Albany #7209: +472
Columbus-Hilltop #8321: +466
Columbus-Southeast #9374: +455
Grove City #9740: +441
Columbus Northeast #6945: +438
Hillard #7931: +432
Columbus-West Side #7812: +427
Columbus-South Side #9590: +411
Columbus-South Side #8710: +407
Hilliard #10602: +407
Columbus-South Side #8822: +403
Whitehall #9230: +398
Columbus-West Side #8163: +397
Columbus-East Side #9362: +389
Columbus-Downtown #30: +387
Hilliard #7953: +382
Columbus-West Side #6330: +371
Columbus-Northwest #6387: +361
Columbus-East Side #9322: +352
Columbus-South Side #8825: +349
Columbus-Southwest #8161: +346
West Side-Marble Cliff #43: +345
Columbus-Southwest #8370: +340
Grandview #85: +332
Columbus-Downtown #40: +321
Hilliard #7922: +320
Dublin #6371: +312
Grove City #9751: +304
Columbus-Campus Area #13: +303

As far as the core of the city, the 1950 boundaries, here are the results.

There are 78 tracts that make up the original 1950 city boundary. Using the official estimates, 38 of the 78 tracts grew between 2010-2013, yet had a total loss of 3,229. However, again, it had all the Downtown and adjacent tracts inexplicably losing population, yet the opposite is occurring in these areas. For Downtown, the combined loss was about 370, and for the Short North, it had the loss at more than 700.

Using my adjusted estimates, 35 tracts are growing, adding 1,166 people 2010-2013. Most of the gains were made in the Downtown and adjacent tracts, and some of the losses were simply not as steep. For example, the official estimates had tract #10, in the Campus area, losing nearly 1,300 people since 2010, which is a ridiculous loss, especially considering it grew by almost 8% 2000-2010. In fact, most of the largest losses from the official estimates were around Campus and the Short North. Nonsense.

Columbus Housing Market Update- August 2014

For this update, I’m going to do things a bit differently. In previous updates, I have done long ranking lists and it got to be a bit overwhelming. So starting with this update, I’m going to do more charts instead.

In any case, August continued the year-long trend of home sales being down, with the month coming in at more than 11% off from the same time last year. Prices, however, were up more than 6% to reach a monthly record. There continues to be a supply problem, which is the main mechanism driving both lower sales and higher prices.

Now on to the charts!

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Columbus Housing Market Update- June 2014

June’s housing data for the Columbus region was just released. The month continued the same story as the previous 5 months, with home sales down due to a lack of inventory. Prices continued to rise and the number of days to sell a home continued to fall in relation to this problem. As always, I looked at 21 major areas of the Columbus region, both urban and suburban. Here is how those areas performed.

Top 10 June 2014 Sales Totals
1. Columbus: 1,045
2. Upper Arlington: 109
3. Dublin: 108
4. Clintonville: 83
5. Westerville: 77
6. Gahanna: 63
7. Grove City: 62
8. Reynoldsburg: 59
9. New Albany: 38

Top 10 June 2014 Sales Increases over June 2013
1. Downtown: +72.0%
2. Grove City: +14.5%
3. Gahanna: +12.7%
4. German Village: +10.5%
5. Grandview Heights: +6.3%
6. Canal Winchester: +3.8%
7. Hilliard: 0.0%
8. Minerva Park: 0.0%
9. Columbus: -1.8%
10. Reynoldsburg: -5.1%

Top 10 Year-to-Date Sales Through June 2014
1. Columbus: 4,803
2. Dublin: 362
3. Grove City: 332
4. Clintonville: 323
5. Westerville: 299
6. Upper Arlington: 294
7. Reynoldsburg: 265
8. Hilliard: 258
9. Gahanna: 221
10. Pickerington: 136

Top 10 Year-to-Date Increases Through June 2014 Over 2013
1. Obetz: +42.1%
2. Downtown: +13.4%
3. Grove City: +11.0%
4. New Albany: +2.8%
5. Reynoldsburg: -0.4%
6. Westerville: -3.2%
7. Pataskala: -3.4%
8. German Village: -3.9%
9. Columbus: -5.3%
10. Clintonville: -5.8%

Average Sales June 2014
Urban: 122.3
Suburban: 55.1
Urban without Columbus: 30

Average % Change June 2014 vs. June 2013
Urban: -5.8%
Suburban: -5.1%
Urban without Columbus: -6.0%

Average YTD Sales Through June 2014
Urban: 545
Suburban: 222.6
Urban without Columbus: 119.2

Average YTD % Change YTD Through June 2014
Urban: -4.8%
Suburban: -5.3%
Urban without Columbus: -4.7%

Top 10 Average Sales Price June 2014
1. New Albany: $659,186
2. Upper Arlington: $389,575
3. Bexley: $382,496
4. Dublin: $377,541
5. German Village: $307,753
6. Downtown: $300,582
7. Worthington: $283,209
8. Grandview Heights: $246,271
9. Hilliard: $230,396
10. Gahanna: $229,845

Top 10 Average Sales Price % Change June 2014 vs. June 2013
1. Whitehall: +55.6%
2. Worthington: +17.7%
3. New Albany: +15.8%
4. Bexley: +15.6%
5. Columbus: +12.2%
6. Clintonville: +9.3%
7. Hilliard: +8.5%
8. Canal Winchester: +7.4%
9. Pickerington: +6.7%
10. Gahanna: +6.4%

Top 10 Average Sales Prices YTD Through June 2014
1. New Albany: $541,077
2. Dublin: $360,202
3. Upper Arlington: $348,160
4. Bexley: $334,491
5. Downtown: $305,215
6. German Village: $302,117
7. Worthington: $261,659
8. Grandview Heights: $245,946
9. Hilliard: $225,849
10. Gahanna: $213,782

Top 10 Average YTD Sales Price % Change Through June 2014 vs. 2013
1. Obetz: +24.7%
2. Grandview Heights: +15.5%
3. Worthington: +11.3%
4. Pataskala: +10.8%
5. Columbus: +10.6%
6. Pickerington: +9.9%
7. Canal Winchester: +9.5%
8. Downtown: +9.5%
9. Dublin: +9.2%
10. Westerville: +8.5%

Average Sales Price June 2014
Urban: $232,965
Suburban: $253,488
Urban without Columbus: $240,917

Average Sales Price Change June 2014 vs. June 2013
Urban: +7.6%
Suburban: +5.0%
Urban without Columbus: +7.1%

Average Sales Price YTD Through June 2014
Urban: $220,893
Suburban: $234,492
Urban without Columbus: $229,327

Average Sales Price % Change YTD Through June 2014
Urban: +6.6%
Suburban: +7.5%
Urban without Columbus: +6.2%

Top 10 Fastest Selling Markets June 2014 (Based on Average # of Days for Listings to Sell)
1. Worthington: 21
2. Upper Arlington: 36
3. Clintonville: 38
4. Gahanna: 39
5. Hilliard: 39
6. Dublin: 40
7. German Village: 42
8. Obetz: 45
9. Bexley: 46
10. Pataskala, Westerville: 47

Top 10 Fastest Selling Markets YTD Through June 2014
1. Worthington: 39
2. Minerva Park: 44
3. Upper Arlington: 44
4. Obetz: 46
5. Hilliard: 47
6. Clintonville: 52
7. Westerville: 53
8. Grandview Heights: 54
9. Dublin: 57
10. Bexley: 59

Average # of Days Before Sale, June 2014
Urban: 47.8
Suburban: 54.3
Urban without Columbus: 47.3

Average # of Days Before Sale YTD Through June 2014
Urban: 58.6
Suburban: 67.8
Urban without Columbus: 57.4

Top 10 Lowest Market Housing Supplies June 2014 (Based on # of Months to Sell all Listings)
1. Grandview Heights: 1.0
2. Worthington: 1.4
3. Westerville: 2.0
4. Clintonville: 2.1
5. German Village: 2.1
6. Gahanna: 2.3
7. Hilliard: 2.5
8. Minerva Park: 2.7
9. Obetz: 2.7
10. Upper Arlington: 2.7

A healthy housing supply is considered to be around 5-6 months. Anything less than 3 months is considered very low. Grandview’s 1 month is ridiculously low and the lowest reading I’ve seen for any area.

Average # of Months to Sell All Listings, June 2014
Urban: 2.7
Suburban: 3.5
Urban without Columbus: 2.6

Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales June 2014 vs. June 2013
Urban: +33.2%
Suburban: -5.4%
Urban without Columbus: +36.8%

Average % Change of Single-Family Home Sales YTD Through June 2014 vs. YTD 2013
Urban: -8.8%
Suburban: -5.4%
Urban without Columbus: -8.9%


Average % Change of Condo Sales June 2014 vs. June 2013

Urban: -4.0%
Suburban: +41.0%
Urban without Columbus: -5.0%

Average % Change of Condo Sales YTD Through June 2014 vs. YTD 2013
Urban: +19.3%
Suburban: +7.0%
Urban without Columbus: +21.0%

May 2014 Jobs Data

May was generally a positive month for Columbus and Ohio. Unemployment rates did creep up a bit, but largely because more people came onto the market looking for jobs, which is considered a positive sign.

Also positive is that almost every industry saw decent growth in the metro.

Columbus City
Unemployment Rate: 4.4%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2013: -1.7%
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2014: -1.4%
Civilian Labor Force: 435,500
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2013: -2,000
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2014: +1,800
Employment: 416,400
Employment Change since May 2013: +5,600
Employment Change since January 2014: +8,000
Unemployment: 19,100
Unemployment Change since May 2013: -7,500
Unemployment Change since January 2014: -6,300

Franklin County
Unemployment Rate: 4.4%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2013: -1.7%
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2014: -1.5%
Civilian Labor Force: 636,400
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2013: -2,600
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2014: +2,800
Employment: 608,300
Employment Change since May 2013: +6,100
Employment Change since January 2014: +11,800
Unemployment: 28,100
Unemployment Change since May 2013: -10,700
Unemployment Change since January 2014: -9,000

Columbus Metro Area
Unemployment Rate: 4.4%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2013: -1.6%
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2014: -1.6%
Civilian Labor Force: 982,412
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2013: -4,512
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2014: +2,216
Employment: 939,332
Employment Change since May 2013: +12,108
Employment Change since January 2014: +17,688
Unemployment: 43,080
Unemployment Change since May 2013: -16,620
Unemployment Change since January 2014: -15,472

Ohio Overall
Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Unemployment Rate Change since May 2013: -1.9%
Unemployment Rate Change since January 2014 : -1.4%
Civilian Labor Force: 5,721,891
Civilian Labor Force Change since May 2013: -48,893
Civilian Labor Force Change since January 2014: -41,237
Employment: 5,406,014
Employment Change since May 2013: +60,405
Employment Change since January 2014: +38,259
Unemployment: 315,877
Unemployment Change since May 2013: -109,298
Unemployment Change since January 2014: -79,496

Metro Non-Farm Jobs
Total: 995,600
Change from May 2013: +11,100
Change from January 2014: +29,800

By Industry
Mining/Logging/Construction Total: 33,700
Change from May 2013: +1,900
Change from January 2014: +4,400

Manufacturing Total: 67,700
Change from May 2013: -100
Change from January 2014: +1,700

Trade/Transportation/Utilities Total: 187,900
Change from May, 2013: +3,900
Change from January 2014: +1,500

Information Total: 18,100
Change from May 2013: +100
Change from January 2014: +0

Financial Activities Total: 73,500
Change from May 2013: -2,000
Change from January 2014: -300

Professional and Business Services Total: 162,500
Change from May 2013: -700
Change from January 2014: +4,100

Education and Health Services Total: 142,500
Change from May 2013: +2,800
Change from January 2014: +5,300

Leisure and Hospitality Total: 103,00
Change from May 2013: +1,800
Change from January 2014: +9,100

Other Services Total: 38,900
Change from May 2013: +900
Change from January 2014: +600

Government Total: 167,800
Change from May 2013: +2,500
Change from January 2014: +3,400