Worst Heatwaves in History





The next week looks to be very warm and humid, with heat advisories popping up all over the region.  While this heatwave looks bad, it’s definitely not the worst Columbus has ever had.  Let’s take a look at some of the worst.

To find out what the worst heatwaves were, I looked at average temperatures for different consecutive time periods- 3 days, 7 days, 10 days and 30 days. Unsurprisingly, some historically hot summers popped up, particularly from the 1930s.

Top 5 3-Day Periods with the Warmest Average High Temperature
1. 7/20-7/22/1934, 7/9-7/11/1936, 7/12-7/14/1936: 103.3
2. 7/24-7/26/1934, 7/8-7/10/1936, 7/10-7/12/1936, 7/11-7/13/1936: 102.7
3. 7/8-7/10/1881: 101.3
4. 7/2-7/4/1911, 8/5-8/7/1918, 7/21-7/23/1934, 7/7-7/9/1936: 101.0
5. 7/3-7/5/1911, 7/13-7/15/1936: 100.7

Top 5 7-Day Periods with the Warmest Average High Temperature
1. 7/8-7/14/1936: 103.1
2. 7/9-7/15/1936: 102.1
3. 7/20-7/26/1934, 7/7-7/13/1936: 101.7
4. 7/10-7/16/1936: 100.7
5. 7/19-7/25/1934, 7/11-7/17/1936: 100.3

Top 5 10-Day Periods with the Warmest Average High Temperature
1. 7/8-7/17/1936: 101.0
2. 7/7-7/16/1936: 100.8
3. 7/6-7/15/1936: 100.2
4. 7/9-7/18/196: 99.8
5. 7/5-7/14/1936: 99.2

Top 5 30-Day Periods with the Warmest Average High Temperature
1. 6/29-7/28/1936: 92.7
2. 6/28-7/27/1936: 92.6
3. 6/27-7/26/1934: 92.5
4. 6/26-7/25/1934, 6/30-7/29/1936: 92.3
5. 6/28-7/27/1934: 92.2

So with a few exceptions, the heat waves in 1934 and 1936 dominated for high temperatures. The top 5 highest individual temperatures ever are:
1. 7/21/1934, 7/14/1936: 106
2. 7/9/1936: 105
3. 7/22/1901, 7/4/1911, 7/25/1934, 7/11/1936, 7/14/1954: 104
4. 7/10/1881, 8/5/1918, 7/22/1934, 7/12/1936: 103
5. 7/12/1881, 7/4/1897, 8/6/1918, 7/24/1934, 7/26/1934, 7/8/1936, 7/27/1936, 6/28/1944: 102

High temperatures in the upcoming heatwave should only reach the mid-90s.

Now that we’ve see the worst periods for high temperature, let’s look at the worst for the mean temperature, which is the average between the high and low. This details those periods that provided little relief even at night.

Top 5 3-Days Periods with the Warmest Average Temperature
1. 7/20-7/22/1934: 90.5
2. 7/8-7/10/1881: 90.3
3. 7/9-7/11/1881: 90.0
4. 7/10-7/12/1881, 7/9-7/11/1936: 89.8
5. 7/12-7/14/1936: 89.5

Top 5 7-Day Periods with the Warmest Average Temperature
1. 7/8-7/14/1936, 7/9-7/15/1936: 89.1
2. 7/6-7/12/1881: 89.0
3. 7/20-7/26/1934: 88.9
4. 7/7-7/13/1881: 88.6
5. 7/5-7/11/1881, 7/10-7/16/1936: 87.9

Top 5 10-Day Periods with the Warmest Average Temperature
1. 7/8-7/17/1936: 87.4
2. 7/7-7/16/1936: 87.2
3. 7/5-7/14/1881, 7/6-7/15/1881, 7/9-7/18/1936: 87.1
4. 7/4-7/13/1881: 86.9
5. 7/6-7/15/1936, 7/7-7/16/1881: 86.6

Top 5 30-Day Periods with the Warmest Average Temperature
1. 6/27-7/26/1934: 81.4
2. 6/28-7/27/1934: 81.3
3. 6/26-7/25/1934: 81.2
4. 6/29-7/28/1934, 7/19-8/17/1940, 7/20-8/18/1940, 6/28-7/27/2012: 81.0
5. 7/18-8/16/1940, 6/29-7/28/2012: 80.8

1934 and 1936 still dominate, but 1881 makes a strong showing. Only 2012 shows up with anything in the last 60 years, and that year also saw one of the worst wind events in Ohio history, partially fueled by the heat of that summer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho

Finally, let’s look at periods that featured consecutive days with highs of 90 degrees or higher. What are the longest?

# of Consecutive Days with Highs 90 or Above
1. 7/3-7/16/1881: 14
2. 7/18-7/30/1940: 13
3. 6/24-7/5/1934, 7/7-7/18/1936, 6/28-7/9/1949, 7/21-8/1/1999: 12
4. 7/20-7/30/1901, 8/4-8/14/1918, 8/25-9/4/1953, 8/8-8/18/1988, 6/28-7/8/2012: 11
5. 7/27-8/5/1887, 9/7-9/16/1897, 7/29-8/7/1955, 6/13-6/22/1994: 10

A short video and article from 2016 about the 1936 heatwave, still the hottest in history.
https://www.nbc4i.com/local-news/columbus-resident-remembers-1936-heat-wave/1114607375

Election 2016

I’m not going to get into any debate on the candidates themselves or what I personally thought/think of them. That’s not the point of this post, and frankly, there’s already plenty of opinions all over the internet on this.

First, here is a map of total Democratic votes within Ohio’s counties.

As is typical, Democratic votes were most concentrated in counties with large cities.

Here are the metro areas that provided the most Democratic votes.

1. Cleveland: 561,368
2. Columbus: 450,146
3. Cincinnati: 339,159
4. Akron: 166,653
5. Dayton: 164,079
6. Toledo: 152,505
7. Youngstown: 100,395

And the top 10 counties with the most Democratic votes.
1. Cuyahoga: 398,271
2. Franklin: 351,198
3. Hamilton: 215,719
4. Summit: 134,256
5. Montgomery: 122,016
6. Lucas: 110,833
7. Stark: 68,146
8. Lorain: 66,949
9. Butler: 58,642
10. Mahoning: 57,381

Here is how Democratic votes changed by county between 2012 and 2016.

As you can see, only a handful of counties saw Democratic votes increase in 2016 over 2012, Franklin County being one of them. Some of the biggest losses were in traditionally blue areas like Northeast Ohio.

And the map for total Republican votes.

Republican votes by metro area.
1. Cincinnati: 440,375
2. Columbus: 429,930
3. Cleveland: 400,321
4. Dayton: 210,807
5. Akron: 151,997
6. Toledo: 134,558
7. Youngstown: 102,640

Top 10 counties for Republican votes.
1. Franklin: 199,331
2. Cuyahoga: 184,211
3. Hamilton: 173,665
4. Montgomery: 123,909
5. Summit: 112,026
6. Butler: 106,976
7. Stark: 98,388
8. Warren: 77,643
9. Lucas: 75,698
10. Clermont: 67,518

And here is the change of Republican votes in 2016 vs. 2012.

Most of Ohio’s counties saw increased Republican turnout, though again, Franklin County bucked the trend and actually saw declines.

Finally, a map of the net % change for each county and whether it trended more Republican or more Democratic vs. the net of the 2012 election.

Almost all counties saw a net decrease of Democratic votes/increase in Republican votes. Only 3 counties of 88- Franklin, Delaware and Hamilton- trended more Democratic in 2016 over 2012. All the other 85 trended Republican.

Summer 2016

Now that Summer 2016 is but a memory, let’s take a quick look back at where it stands in the record books.

Temperature

Summer 2016 Means
June-August Mean High: 85.5
June-August Mean Rank since 1878: 26th Warmest
While the average high for Summer 2016 was certainly warm, it fell just outside of the top 25. By comparison to recent years, 2010 (85.6), 2011 (85.7) and 2012 (87.7) all had warmer average highs.

June-August Mean Low: 66.1
June-August Mean Low Rank since 1878: 4th Warmest
The average low for the summer is what made 2016 much more exceptional. No recent years (last decade) were warmer, although 2010 did tie.

June-August Mean: 75.8
June-August Mean Rank since 1878: 10th
So if you thought this summer was hot, well you were right. Only 2010 (75.9) and 2012 (76.4) were warmer of any recent years.

Monthly Means
June Mean: 73.2
June Mean Rank since 1878: 17th Warmest
July Mean: 76.6
July Mean Rank since 1878: 20th Warmest
August Mean: 77.6
August Mean Rank since 1878: 6th Warmest
The summer gradually became hotter as it went on.

Summer 2016 Misc. Temperature Stats
# of 90+ Days: 18
90+ Days Rank: 22nd
Warmest High: 95
Warmest Low: 77
Coldest High: 72
Coldest Low: 48

Daily Temperature Records
June 11th: Record Warm Maximum Tie: 95: Tied with 1914 and 1933.
August 10th: Record Warm Minimum Tie: 75: Tied with 2001.
August 11th: Record Warm Minimum Tie: 76: Tied with 1918.
August 12th: Record Warm Minimum: 76: Beat record from 1947.
August 13th: Record Warm Minimum Tie: 75: Tied with 1995.

Precipitation

June-July Precipitation Total: 13.53″
June-July Precipitation Rank since 1878: 29th Wettest
Besides being warm, Summer 2016 was also fairly wet.

Monthly Precipitation Stats
June Precipitation: 5.22″
June Precipitation Rank since 1878: 29th
July Precipitation: 2.49″
July Precipitation Rank since 1878: 27th Driest
August Precipitation: 5.82″
August Precipitation Rank since 1878: 13th Wettest
So the summer was bookended by wet months with July being fairly dry.

Summer 2016 Misc. Precipitation Stats
Total Precipitation Days (including Trace): 45
Total Measurable Precipitation Days: 30
Measurable Precipitation Days Rank since 1878: 16th Highest
Days with 0.25″ or Higher: 16
Days with 0.50″ or Higher: 10
Days with 1.00″ or Higher: 4

Daily Precipitation Records
June 23rd: 2.75″: Beat the old record in 1901.

Columbus Area Murders by Zip Code 2008-2015

*Originally posted in 2013, reposted on 3/4/2015 and again on 1/28/2016, with updated maps.

I have been wanting to do these maps for awhile now, as there have been several searches on the site for them and they weren’t available. It took a lot of work, but here they are!

2008

In 2008, almost all murders were contained within the I-270 boundaries. The East and South Sides were the worst areas.

2009

In 2009, there began to be a bit of diffusion on where murder was taking place. While parts of the urban core remained the worst areas, suburban areas also saw the occasional murder.

2010

The diffusion continued in 2010.

2011

And in 2011.

2012

2012 was the most diffuse of all the years, with no heavily concentrated areas, even in the urban core as much. Meanwhile, most of the suburban zip codes within Franklin County saw at least 1 murder.

2013

2014

2015 saw most activity on the eastern side of the city, particular South Linden and the Far East Side around Whitehall and Reynoldsburg, but all areas along the 270 area on the Far East Side had the highest levels of murder in the county. The central core generally stayed a lot lower.

How Big is the Columbus Police Force?

Police departments nationally have been in the news quite a bit lately, but usually not for positive reasons. Excessive force, racism and even murder charges have been levied against police. While it is difficult to measure such incidents within individual departments, we can at least look at how big police departments are relative to a city’s population, and that’s what this post is about.

I looked at Columbus and its peers and Midwest counterparts to see where it ranked in terms of police presence within the city limits. Here is what I found.

Total Law Enforcement Officers, 2012

Chicago, IL: 12,766
Las Vegas, NV: 4,814
Jacksonville, FL: 2,972
Detroit, MI: 2,883
San Antonio, TX: 2,883
Milwaukee, WI: 2,577
Austin, TX: 2,252
Charlotte, NC: 2,196
Columbus: 2,138
Kansas City, MO: 1,869
St. Louis, MO: 1,866
Indianapolis, IN: 1,813
Cleveland: 1,709
Nashville, TN: 1,637
San Jose, CA: 1,435
Portland, OR: 1,195
Cincinnati: 1,113
Minneapolis, MN: 983
Virginia Beach, VA: 955
Pittsburgh, PA: 947
Omaha, NE: 943
Orlando, FL: 931
Sacramento, CA: 861
Wichita, KS: 821
Toledo: 674
Madison, WI: 555
Providence, RI: 517
Akron: 461
Dayton: 415
Youngstown: 196
Canton: 163

Law Enforcement per 10,000 Residents, 2012
1. St. Louis: 58.6
2. Chicago: 47.1
3. Cleveland: 43.4
4. Milwaukee: 43.0
5. Detroit: 40.8
6. Kansas City: 40.3
7. Orlando: 37.8
8. Cincinnati: 37.6
9. Jacksonville: 35.4
10. Las Vegas: 32.5
11. Pittsburgh: 30.3
12. Youngstown: 29.4
13. Dayton: 29.2
14. Providence: 29.1
15. Charlotte: 27.2
16. Austin: 27.0
17. Columbus: 26.8
18. Nashville: 26.4
19. Minneapolis: 25.2
20. Toledo: 23.6
21. Madison: 23.4
22. Akron: 23.2
23. Omaha: 22.6
24. Canton: 22.4
25. Indianapolis: 21.6
26. Virginia Beach: 21.3
27. Wichita: 21.2
28. San Antonio: 20.9
29. Portland: 20.0
30. Sacramento: 18.1
31. San Jose: 14.7

So now that we know the size of the police force in these places, does the size have a correlation to crime rates?

Here is the violent crime rate for the same year as these stats, 2012. The rank for police force per 10K people is listed beside the violent crime ranking.

Violent Crime Rate per 100K People and Law Enforcement Rank per 10K People
1. Detroit: 2,122.9 #5
2. St. Louis: 1,776.5 #1
3. Cleveland: 1,383.8 #3
4. Milwaukee: 1,294.5 #4
5. Kansas City: 1,263.2 #6
6. Nashville: 1,216 #18
7. Indianapolis: 1,185.5 #25
8. Toledo: 1,171.9 #20
9. Orlando: 1,017.4 #7
10. Minneapolis: 992.2 #19
11. Cincinnati: 974.7 #8
12. Dayton: 973.7 #13
13. Akron: 886.6 #22
14. Youngstown: 809.2 #12
15. Las Vegas: 784 #10
16. Pittsburgh: 752 #11
17. Wichita: 742.5 #27
18. Sacramento: 738.6 #30
19. Charlotte: 647.9 #15
20. Providence: 636.9 #14
21. Columbus: 630 #17
22. Jacksonville: 617.3 #9
23. Omaha: 594.5 #23
24. Portland: 517.2 #29
25. San Antonio: 503.1 #28
26. Austin: 408.8 #16
27. Madison: 377.7 #21
28. San Jose: 363.3 #31
29. Virginia Beach: 169.4 #26
30. Canton: 28.6 #24
Chicago: N/A

Based on the ranking above, which cities are getting the best bang for their police force? That would be cities with a larger police force ranking (by at least 2 spots) than violent crime ranking. These would include: Orlando, Cincinnati, Youngstown, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Providence, Columbus, Jacksonville, Austin, Madison, Virginia Beach and Canton.

On the opposite end, the cities with failing police levels vs. violent crime include those places with a higher violent crime ranking than police ranking (by at least 2 spots). Those are: Detroit, Nashville, Indianapolis, Toledo, Minneapolis, Akron, Wichita, Sacramento, Portland, San Antonio and San Jose.

Finally, the cities with violent crime ranked about where their police size is include St. Louis, Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dayton and Omaha.

So Columbus is in the best category. Its violent crime ranking is 4 spots lower than its law enforcement ranking size, meaning that police in Columbus are performing better than average. Let’s just hope they’re doing the right, legal thing when policing.

For more information and other cities, large and small, check out this link: http://www.governing.com/topics/public-justice-safety/gov-cities-with-the-greatest-police-presence-most-officers-per-capita.html