Suburban vs. Urban Growth in U.S. Metros




Now that we have the full set of 2017 population estimates, I wanted to examine a popular claim a little more closely. The claim is that suburban growth far exceeds that of core cities/counties, and it’s often repeated in media throughout the country. One of the things that always bothered me about this was the constant use of basing this claim largely on % change. This has a major flaw, one that I will go into more below.

For this little study, I will look at the top 50 largest metro areas.

First, let’s look at the total change in the whole metro area, the core county and the core city between the 2010 Census and July 1, 2017. They will be ranked here by total metro change.
1. Dallas, TX: +973,431
2. Houston, TX: +971,941
3. New York, NY: +754,396
4. Atlanta, GA: +597,993
5. Miami, FL: +592,525
6. Washington, DC: +580,228
7. Phoenix, AZ: +544,141
8. Los Angeles, CA: +524,946
9. Seattle, WA: +427,240
10. Austin, TX: +399,507
11. San Francisco, Ca: +391,784
12. Orlando, FL: +375,432
13. Riverside, CA: +355,705
14. Denver, CO: +344,635
15. San Antonio, TX: +331,458
16. Charlotte, NC: +308,313
17. Tampa, FL: +307,930
18. Boston, MA: +283,935
19. Las Vegas, NV: +252,810
20. Minneapolis, MN: +251,760
21. San Diego, CA: +242,343
22. Nashville, TN: +232,162
23. Portland, OR: +227,167
24. Raleigh, NC: +204,590
25. Columbus: +176,724
26. Sacramento, CA: +175,740
27. San Jose, CA: +161,523
28. Jacksonville, FL: +159,382
29. Indianapolis, IN: +140,524
30. Oklahoma City, OK: +130,746
31. Philadelphia, PA: +130,427
32. Kansas City, MO: +119,574
33. Salt Lake City, UT: +115,297
34. Baltimore, MD: +97,572
35. Richmond, VA: +86,117
36. New Orleans, LA: +85,903
37. Chicago: +71,499
38. Cincinnati: +64,396
39. Louisville, KY: +58,247
40. Virginia Beach, VA: +48,429
41. Memphis, TN: +23,433
42. Birmingham, AL: +21,751
43. Milwaukee, WI: +20,282
44. Providence, RI: +19,912
45. St. Louis, MO: +19,575
46. Detroit: +16,685
47. Buffalo, NY: +1,239
48. Hartford, CT: -2,139
49. Cleveland: -18,427
50. Pittsburgh, PA: -22,924

Now that we have the total growth, let’s break it down a bit more.

How much of the total metro change occurred in the core county of each metro? This will be ranked by the highest to lowest % occurring in the core county.

Core County Change—————-Core County % of Total Metro
1. Las Vegas: +252,810———————-100.00%
2. San Diego: +242,343———————-100.00%
3. San Jose: +161,523**———————100.00%
4. Buffalo: +6,488——————————100.00%
5. Salt Lake City: +105,994——————91.93%
6. Phoenix: +489,916————————–90.03%
7. Raleigh: +171,210————————–83.68%
8. San Antonio: +243,805——————–73.56%
9. Columbus: +128,567———————–72.75%
10. Los Angeles: +344,902——————65.70%
11. Sacramento: +111,827——————63.63%
12. Seattle: +257,400————————-60.25%
13. New York: +447,565*——————–59.33%
14. Tampa: +179,340————————-58.24%
15. Houston: +560,521———————–57.67%
16. New Orleans: +49,463——————-57.58%
17. Jacksonville: +88,902——————–55.78%
18. Riverside: +198,100———————-55.69%
19. Providence: +10,870———————54.59%
20. Orlando: +203,019————————54.08%
21. Oklahoma City: +69,325—————-53.02%
22. Louisville: +30,052———————–51.59%
23. Charlotte: +157,209———————50.99%
24. Austin: +202,432————————-50.67%
25. Miami: +255,361————————-43.10%
26. Memphis: +9,317————————39.76%
27. Minneapolis: +99,599——————-39.56%
28. Indianapolis: +46,689——————33.22%
29. Philadelphia: +41,866——————32.10%
30. Portland: +72,221———————–31.79%
31. Denver: +104,463**———————30.31%
32. Nashville: +64,663———————-27.85%
33. Boston: +75,916————————-26.74%
34. Richmond: +22,818**——————26.50%
35. Virginia Beach: +12,441**————25.69%
36. Dallas: +250,009————————25.68%
37. Chicago: +16,588———————–23.20%
38. Milwaukee: +4,350———————21.45%
39. Kansas City: +24,737—————–20.69%
40. Atlanta: +120,843———————-20.21%
41. San Francisco: +79,128**————20.20%
42. Cincinnati: +11,448——————–17.78%
43. Washington, DC: +92,249**———15.90%
44. Birmingham: +731———————-3.36%
45. Hartford: +1,374————————-0.0%
46. Baltimore: -9,313**———————-0.0%
47. St. Louis: -10,668**———————0.0%
48. Detroit: -66,968————————–0.0%
49. Pittsburgh: -300———————– -1.31%
50. Cleveland: -31,608——————- -100.00%

*New York includes all 5 main boroughs, so it is different than core county, but still represents the urban center of the metro area.
**Core County and City are consolidated, or city exists as separate entity.

Going down even further, let’s compare the core city to the total metro, again ranked by %.

Core City Change————————Core City % of Total Metro
1. New York: +447,565————————-59.33%
2. New Orleans: +49,463———————–57.58%
3. San Antonio: +184,539———————-55.67%
4. San Jose: +89,375—————————55.33%
5. Columbus: +92,137————————–52.14%
6. Oklahoma City: +63,649——————–48.68%
7. San Diego: +112,114————————46.26%
8. Jacksonville: +70,278———————–44.09%
9. Philadelphia: +54,857———————–42.06%
10. Charlotte: +127,611————————41.39%
11. Louisville: +24,012————————-41.22%
12. Austin: +160,325—————————40.13%
13. Los Angeles: +207,138——————-39.46%
14. Las Vegas: +64,468———————–36.68%
15. Phoenix: +180,446————————-33.16%
16. Raleigh: +65,098—————————31.82%
17. Denver: +104,463————————–30.31%
18. Indianapolis: +42,557———————30.28%
19. Chicago: +20,852————————–29.16%
20. Portland: +64,029————————–28.19%
21. Nashville: +64,562————————-27.81%
22. Seattle: +116,085————————–27.17%
23. Richmond: +22,818**———————26.50%
24. Virginia Beach: +12,441**—————25.69%
25. Kansas City: +29,156———————24.38%
26. Boston: +67,500—————————23.77%
27. Memphis: +5,347————————–22.82%
28. Houston: +212,454————————21.86%
29. San Francisco**: +79,128—————20.20%
30. Sacramento: +35,413———————20.15%
31. Minneapolis: +41,412———————16.45%
32. Tampa: +49,721—————————-16.15%
33. Washington, DC: +92,249**————-15.90%
34. Dallas: +143,259—————————14.72%
35. Salt Lake City: +14,104——————-12.23%
36. Providence: +2,351————————11.81%
37. Orlando: +41,957—————————11.18%
38. Atlanta: +66,287—————————-11.08%
39. Miami: +54,122——————————9.13%
40. Cincinnati: +4,356————————–6.76%
41. Riverside: +23,857————————-6.71%
42. Milwaukee: +518—————————2.55%
43. Birmingham: -1,527———————–0.0%
44. Buffalo: -5,218——————————0.0%
45. Baltimore: -9,313**————————0.0%
46. St. Louis: -10,668**———————–0.0%
47. Detroit: -40,673—————————-0.0%
48. Pittsburgh: -3,297———————– -14.38%
49. Cleveland: -10,889——————— -59.09%
50. Hartford: -1,375————————- -64.28%

*Again, I used the 5 boroughs of New York here, so the numbers don’t change.
**See above.

Finally, because core counties and cities can be absolutely huge, like in Phoenix, I wanted to take see the ratio of people moving vs. the area size. To do this, I divided the growth by the land area of each core county and city.

So basically, how many people moved there per each square mile.

Core County Ratio——————————-Core City Ratio
1. San Francisco: 1,687.52————————-1,687.52
2. Washington, DC: 1,511.04———————-1,511.04
3. New York: 1,475.51——————————-1,475.51
4. Boston: 1,308.90———————————–1,394.05
5. Denver: 681.30————————————–681.30
6. Richmond: 379.67———————————-379.67
7. Houston: 329.14————————————354.33
8. Philadelphia: 312.43——————————-408.83
9. Charlotte: 300.02———————————–428.66
10. New Orleans: 291.95—————————-291.95
11. Dallas: 286.38————————————-420.73
12. Columbus: 241.67——————————-424.26
13. Atlanta: 229.30———————————–497.65
14. Orlando: 224.83———————————-398.75
15. Raleigh: 205.04———————————-455.87
16. Austin: 204.48————————————538.18
17. San Antonio: 196.62—————————-400.36
18. Minneapolis: 179.78—————————–754.32
19. Tampa: 175.82————————————438.38
20. Portland: 167.57———————————-481.42
21. Salt Lake City: 142.85—————————129.28
22. Miami: 134.54————————————-1,503.81
23. Nashville: 128.30———————————128.01
24. San Jose: 125.21———————————503.49
25. Seattle: 121.64————————————1,384.11
26. Indianapolis: 117.81——————————117.72
27. Jacksonville: 116.67——————————94.02
28. Sacramento: 115.88——————————361.65
29. Oklahoma City: 97.78—————————-105.89
30. Los Angeles: 84.99——————————-441.90
31. Louisville: 79.08———————————–63.11
32. San Diego: 57.84———————————344.76
33. Phoenix: 53.25————————————348.59
34. Virginia Beach: 49.96—————————-49.96
35. Kansas City: 40.96——————————-92.57
36. Las Vegas: 32.04———————————474.73
37. Cincinnati: 28.20———————————-55.89
38. Riverside: 27.49———————————–293.70
39. Providence: 26.51——————————–127.08
40. Milwaukee: 18.05———————————5.39
41. Chicago: 17.5————————————–91.72
42. Memphis: 12.21———————————–16.97
43. Buffalo: 6.22————————————– -128.52
44. Harford: 1.87————————————- -79.02
45. Birmingham: 0.66——————————- -10.46
46. Pittsburgh: -0.41——————————— -59.53
47. Cleveland: -69.16——————————- -140.14
48. Detroit: -109.42———————————- -293.14
49. Baltimore: -115.12—————————— -115.12
50. St. Louis: -172.34——————————- -172.34

So what’s all this mean? Columbus performs particularly well here. Franklin County attracts a high percentage of the total metro population, and Columbus itself is one of only 5 cities with more than 50% of the metro growth entering the city limits. Even accounting for area size, Columbus does fairly well. This suggests that urban growth there is stronger than in most cities.




Columbus Area and Ohio City 2017 Population Estimates




So once again, city estimates came out today. As has been the case for a long time now, Columbus is rocketing upward at record pace. The 2016 comparison numbers have been adjusted by the Census for the 2017 update.

First, let’s take a look at the top 25 largest cities in Ohio on July 1, 2017.

Census 2010—————————-July 1, 2016——————-July 1, 2017
1. Columbus: 787,033——–1. Columbus: 863,741———–1. Columbus: 879,170
2. Cleveland: 396,815———2. Cleveland: 387,451———-2. Cleveland: 385,525
3. Cincinnati: 296,943———3. Cincinnati: 299,127———-3. Cincinnati: 301,301
4. Toledo: 287,208————-4. Toledo: 278,06—————4. Toledo: 276,491
5. Akron: 199,110————–5. Akron: 197,711—————5. Akron: 197,846
6. Dayton: 141,527————6. Dayton: 140,743————–6. Dayton: 140,371
7. Parma: 81,601————–7. Parma: 79,591—————–7. Parma: 79,167
8. Canton: 73,007————-8. Canton: 71,294—————-8. Canton: 70,909
9. Youngstown: 66,982——9. Youngstown: 64,360———9. Youngstown: 64,604
10. Lorain: 64,097————10. Lorain: 63,700—————-10. Lorain: 63,841
11. Hamilton: 62,477———11. Hamilton: 62,157————11. Hamilton: 62,092
12. Springfield: 60,608——-12. Springfield: 58,902———12. Springfield: 59,208
13. Kettering: 56,163———13. Kettering: 55,218————13. Kettering: 55,175
14. Elyria: 54,533————-14. Elyria: 53,880—————–14. Elyria: 53,883
15. Lakewood: 52,131——-15. Lakewood: 50,500———-15. Lakewood: 50,249
16. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,652–16. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,197–16. Newark: 49,423
17. Euclid: 48,920————-17. Newark: 48,899———-17. Cuyahoga Falls: 49,247
18. Middletown: 48,694——18. Middletown: 48,819——–18. Middletown: 48,823
19. Mansfield: 47,821——–19. Euclid: 47,464—————19. Dublin: 47,619
20. Newark: 47,573———–20. Mentor: 46,823————-20. Euclid: 47,201
21. Mentor: 47,159————21. Mansfield: 46,671———-21. Mentor: 47,121
22. Cleveland Heights: 46,121–22. Beavercreek: 46,393–22. Beavercreek: 46,948
23. Beavercreek: 45,193—–23. Dublin: 45,673————-23. Mansfield: 46,160
24. Strongsville: 44.750—–24. Cleveland Heights: 44,805–24. Strongsville: 44,744
25. Fairfield: 42,510———25. Strongsville: 44,713———25. Cleveland Heights: 44,562

So Columbus easily maintained #1, and Dublin and Newark are rapidly climbing the list.

Here are all of the Columbus Metro’s cities, towns and villages on July 1, 2017, and the total change from July 1, 2016.

1. Columbus: 879,170 +15,429
2. Newark: 49,423 +534
3. Dublin: 47,619 +1,937
4. Grove City: 41,022 +1,128
5. Lancaster: 40,280 +431
6. Westerville: 39,737 +671
7. Delaware: 39,267 +506
8. Reynoldsburg: 37,847 +345
9. Hilliard: 35,939 +938
10. Upper Arlington: 35,337 +217
11. Gahanna: 35,297 +241
12. Marysville: 23,912 +462
13. Pickerington: 20,402 +350
14. Whitehall: 18,913 +89
15. Pataskala: 15,566 +147
16. Worthington: 14,646 +71
17. Circleville: 13,930 +80
18. Bexley: 13,786 +48
19. Powell: 13,204 +400
20. New Albany: 10,718 +301
21. Heath: 10,713 +100
22. London: 10,138 +143
23. Canal Winchester: 8,294 +349
24. Grandview Heights: 7,778 +116
25. Logan: 7,069 +25
26. Granville: 5,773 +11
27. Groveport: 5,621 +26
28. Sunbury: 5,293 +57
29. Johnstown: 5,002 +43
30. Obetz: 4,967 +99
31. New Lexington: 4,704 -12
32. Plain City: 4,379 +32
33. West Jefferson: 4,355 +59
34. Ashville: 4,147 +29
35. Mount Gilead: 3,655 +1
36. Baltimore: 2,989 +15
37. Buckeye Lake: 2,816 +18
38. Crooksville: 2,491 -6
39. Hebron: 2,435 +23
40. Richwood: 2,372 +56
41. Utica: 2,211 +17
42. Cardington: 2,048 +2
43. South Bloomfield: 1,972 +19
44. Roseville: 1,839 -4
45. Mount Sterling: 1,767 +10
46. Commercial Point: 1,629 +13
47. Lithopolis: 1,573 +128
48. Ashley: 1,537 +26
49. Somerset: 1,462 -1
50. Bremen: 1,441 +6
51. Minerva Park: 1,321 +6
52. Hanover: 1,178 +15
53. Williamsport: 1,065 +6
54. Millersport: 1,055 +7
55. Urbancrest: 1,001 +6
56. Thornville: 999 +5
57. Pleasantville: 964 +3
58. Milford Center: 860 +20
59. New Holland: 840 +5
60. Junction City: 808 -2
61. Shawnee Hills: 787 +14
62. Amanda: 747 +4
63. Ostrander: 713 +13
64. New Straitsville: 711 -1
65. Marble Cliff: 683 +10
66. Galena: 682 +1
67. Shawnee: 643 -1
68. Valleyview: 638 +1
69. Thurston: 609 +4
70. Corning: 571 -1
71. Butchel: 568 +5
72. Stoutsville: 567 +3
73. Riverlea: 566 +2
74. Carroll: 560 +33
75. Kirkersville: 542 +3
76. Alexandria: 534 +3
77. Laurelville: 511 +2
78. Murray City: 441 +1
79. Edison: 438 +0
80. Sugar Grove: 426 +0
81. Hartford: 404 +2
82. St. Louisville: 380 +4
83. South Solon: 357 -1
84. Marengo: 338 -1
85. Harrisburg: 335 +4
86. Midway: 326 +1
87. Rushville: 310 +2
88. Magnetic Springs: 285 +8
89. Tarlton: 282 +1
90. Orient: 278 +1
91. Fulton: 258 +0
92. Lockbourne: 246 +0
93. Darbyville: 234 +1
94. Unionville Center: 232 -1
95. Chesterville: 227 +0
96. Gratiot: 222 +1
97. Glenford: 172 +0
98. Sparta: 158 -3
99. Hemlock: 152 +0
100. West Rushville: 135 +1
101. Brice: 119 +1
102. Rendville: 36 +0

Some milestones include Grove City and Lancaster passing 40,000 for the first time and Johnstown passing the 5,000 mark. 11 places lost population, 8 stayed the same and 83 gained population. The growing portions of the Columbus metro continue to encompass the vast majority of incorporated places.

Nationally, here were the top 20 fastest-growing cities by numerical change between July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017

1. San Antonio, Texas: +24,208
2. Phoenix, Arizona: 24,036
3. Dallas, Texas: +18,935
4. Fort Worth, Texas: +18,664
5. Los Angeles: 18,643
6. Seattle, Washington: +17,490
7. Charlotte, North Carolina: +15,551
8. Columbus: +15,429
9. Frisco, Texas: +13,470
10. Atlanta, Georgia: +13,323
11. San Diego, California: +12,834
12. Austin, Texas: +12,515
13. Jacksonville, Florida: +11,169
14. Irvine, California: +11,068
15. Henderson, Nevada: +10,534
16. Las Vegas, Nevada: 9,966
17. Denver, Colorado: 9,844
18. Washington, DC: 9,636
19. Tampa, Florida: 9,383
20. Mesa, Arizona: 9,025

Columbus may in fact be an official boomtown now.




2017 County/Metro Population Estimates Part 2




In part 2, I am going to examine metro areas, not only in Ohio, but also Columbus’ peer group that includes Midwest and national metro areas. Midwest peers (outside Ohio) used would be any metro with a population greater than 500,000. National peers would be metros that either started or ended the period 2010-2017 with a population between 1.5-2.5 Million.

As with counties, I am going to start this look with a comparison of overall population.

Total Metro Area Population Census 2010, July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017

Census 2010——————————-July 1, 2016————————July 1, 2017
1. Chicago, IL: 9,461,104————-1. Chicago: 9,546,326———–1. Chicago: 9,533,040
2. Detroit, MI: 4,296,250—————2. Detroit: 4,305,869————-2. Detroit: 9,313,002
3. Minneapolis, MN: 3,348,8459—3. Minneapolis: 3,557,276–3. Minneapolis: 3,600,618
4. St. Louis, MO: 2,787,701———4. St. Louis: 2,806,782———4. St. Louis: 2,807,338
5. Pittsburgh, PA: 2,356,285——–5. Charlotte: 2,475,519———5. Charlotte: 2,525,305
6. Portland, OR: 2,226,009———-6. Orlando: 2,453,333———-6. Orlando: 2,509,831
7. Charlotte: 2,217,012———–7. San Antonio: 2,426,211—–7. San Antonio: 2,473,974
8. Sacramento, CA: 2,149,127—–8. Portland: 2,423,102——–8. Portland: 2,453,168
9. San Antonio, TX: 2,142,516—–9. Pittsburgh: 2,341,536——9. Pittsburgh: 2,333,367
10. Orlando, FL: 2,134,411—–10. Sacramento: 2,295,233—10. Sacramento: 2,324,884
11. Cincinnati: 2,114,580———-11. Cincinnati: 2,166,029—–11. Las Vegas: 2,204,079
12. Cleveland: 2,077,240————12. Las Vegas: 2,156,724—-12. Cincinnati: 2,179,082
13. Kansas City, MO: 2,009,342-13. Kansas City: 2,106,382-13. Kansas City: 2,128,912
14. Las Vegas, NV: 1,951,269——–14. Austin: 2,060,558——–14. Austin: 2,115,827
15. Columbus: 1,901,974———-15. Cleveland: 2,060,065——15. Columbus: 2,078,725
16. Indianapolis, IN: 1,887,877——16. Columbus: 2,046,977—16. Cleveland: 2,058,844
17. San Jose, CA: 1,836,911—17. Indianapolis: 2,005,612—17. Indianapolis: 2,028,614
18. Austin, TX: 1,716,289————18. San Jose: 1,990,910—-18. San Jose: 1,998,463
19. Virginia Beach, VA: 1,676,822—19. Nashville: 1,868,855—-19. Nashville: 1,903,045
20. Nashville: 1,670,890—20. Virginia Beach: 1,722,766–20. Virginia Beach: 1,725,246
21. Providence, RI: 1,600,852—-21. Providence: 1,615,878—21. Providence: 1,621,122
22. Milwaukee, WI: 1,555,908—–22. Milwaukee: 1,576,143—22. Milwaukee: 1,576,236
23. Jacksonville, FL: 1,345,596-23. Jacksonville: 1,476,503–23. Jacksonville: 1,504,980
24. Grand Rapids: 988,938–24. Grand Rapids: 1,048,826-24. Grand Rapids: 1,059,113
25. Omaha, NE: 865,350————–25. Omaha: 924,003—-25. Omaha: 933,316
26. Dayton: 799,232——————–26. Dayton: 800,886—–26. Dayton: 803,416
27. Akron: 703,200———————27. Akron: 702,556——–27. Akron: 703,505
28. Wichita, KS: 630,919————-28. Madison: 647,432—28. Madison: 654,230
29. Toledo: 610,001——————29. Wichita: 644,680——29. Des Moines: 645,911
30. Madison, WI: 605,435———–30. Des Moines: 634,740—-30. Wichita: 645,628
31. Des Moines, IA: 569,633——-31. Toledo: 604,591——31. Toledo: 603,668
32. Youngstown: 565,773——32. Youngstown: 544,543—32. Youngstown: 541,926
33. Canton: 404,422——————33. Canton: 401,165—-33. Canton: 399,927

Columbus passed up Cleveland to become Ohio’s 2nd largest metro.

Metro Area Total Growth Census 2010-July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

Census 2010-July 1, 2017—————————–July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

1. Austin, TX: +399,507———————————–1. Orlando: +56,498
2. Orlando, FL: +375,432———————————2. Austin: +55,269
3. San Antonio, TX: +331,458—————————3. Charlotte: +49,786
4. Charlotte, NC: +308,313——————————-4. San Antonio: +47,763
5. Las Vegas, NV: +252,810—————————–5. Las Vegas: +47,355
6. Minneapolis, MN: +251,760————————–6. Minneapolis: +43,342
7. Nashville, TN: +232,162——————————-7. Nashville: +34,190
8. Portland, OR: +227,167——————————-8. Columbus: +31,748
9. Columbus: +176,724———————————–9. Portland: +30,066
10. Sacramento, CA: +175,740————————10. Sacramento: +29,651
11. San Jose, CA: +161,523—————————-11. Jacksonville: +28,477
12. Jacksonville, FL: +159,382————————-12. Indianapolis: +23,002
13. Indianapolis, IN: +140,524————————-13. Kansas City: +22,530
14. Kansas City, MO: +119,574————————14. Cincinnati: +13,053
15. Des Moines, IA: +76,278—————————15. Des Moines: +11,171
16. Chicago, IL: +71,499——————————–16. Grand Rapids: +10,287
17. Grand Rapids, MI: +70,173————————17. Omaha: +9,313
18. Omaha, NE: +67,960——————————–18. San Jose: +7,533
19. Cincinnati: +64,396———————————–19. Detroit: +7,133
20. Madison, WI: +48,802——————————-20. Madison: +6,798
21. Virginia Beach, VA: +48,429———————-21. Providence: +5,244
22. Milwaukee, WI: +20,282—————————22. Dayton: +2,530
23. Providence, RI: +19,912————————–23. Virginia Beach: +2,480
24. St. Louis, MO: +19,575—————————24. Akron: +949
25. Detroit, MI: +16,685——————————-25. Wichita: +948
26. Wichita, KS: +14,704——————————26. St. Louis: +556
27. Dayton: +4,165————————————-27. Milwaukee: +93
28. Akron: +302—————————————–28. Toledo: -923
29. Canton: -4,501————————————-29. Cleveland: -1,221
30. Toledo: -6,334————————————-30. Canton: -1,238
31. Cleveland: -18,427——————————-31. Youngstown: -2,617
32. Pittsburgh, PA: -22,924————————-32. Pittsburgh: -8,169
33. Youngstown: -23,873—————————-33. Chicago: -13,286

Now, as done with counties, let’s look at the components of population change for metro areas.

Total Births By Metro Census 2010-July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

Census 2010-July 1, 2017———————————July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017
1. Chicago: +869,178—————————————-1. Chicago: +115,915
2. Detroit: +364,121———————————————-2. Detroit: +49,940
3. Minneapolis: +331,430————————————–3. Minneapolis: +45,810
4. St. Louis: +246,280——————————————4. San Antonio: +34,318
5. San Antonio: +236,348————————————–5. St. Louis: +33,143
6. Charlotte: +217,525——————————————6. Charlotte: +31,315
7. Portland: +201,872——————————————-7. Orlando: +29,173
8. Orlando: +200,843——————————————-8. Portland: +28,220
9. Kansas City: +200,535————————————–9. Columbus: +27,663
10. Sacramento: +198,466————————————10. Kansas City: +27,565
11. Columbus: +197,185—————————————11. Las Vegas: +27,449
12. Cincinnati: +196,146—————————————12. Austin: +27,400
13. Las Vegas: +194,083————————————–13. Sacramento: +27,148
14. Indianapolis: +193,599————————————14. Cincinnati: +26,855
15. Austin: +188,961——————————————–15. Indianapolis: +26,769
16. San Jose: +176,224—————————————-16. Nashville: +24,690
17. Pittsburgh: +173,472—————————————17. San Jose: +23,826
18. Nashville: +170,824—————————————–18. Pittsburgh: +23,614
19. Cleveland: +168,361—————————————19. Cleveland: +22,873
20. Virginia Beach: +163,787———————————20. Milwaukee: +19,474
21. Milwaukee: +144,429————————————–21. Jacksonville: +18,748
22. Jacksonville: +130,339————————————22. Providence: +16,542
23. Providence: +120,526————————————-23. Grand Rapids: +13,548
24. Grand Rapids: +98,214———————————–24. Omaha: +13,421
25. Omaha: +96,558——————————————-25. Dayton: +9,615
26. Dayton: +69,855——————————————-26. Des Moines: +9,172
27. Wichita: +65,873——————————————27. Wichita: +8,694
28. Des Moines: +63,958————————————28. Madison: +7,400
29. Akron: +54,644——————————————–29. Toledo: +7,345
30. Toledo: +54,309——————————————-30. Akron: +7,342
31. Madison: +53,718—————————————-31. Virginia Beach: +5,935
32. Youngstown: +40,696———————————–32. Youngstown: +5,551
33. Canton: +32,199——————————————33. Canton: +4,434

Total Deaths By Metro Census 2010-July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

Census 2010-July 1, 2017———————————July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017
1. Chicago: -501,469—————————————1. Chicago: -72,491
2. Detroit: -293,091—————————————–2. Detroit: -41,075
3. Pittsburgh: -197,572————————————3. Pittsburgh: -27,439
4. St. Louis: -186,111————————————–4. St. Louis: -26,755
5. Minneapolis: -161,913———————————5. Minneapolis: -23,527
6. Cleveland: -153,138———————————–6. Cleveland: -21,068
7. Cincinnati: -135,975———————————–7. Cincinnati: -19,515
8. Charlotte: -127,523————————————-8. Charlotte: -19,009
9. Portland: -120,590————————————–9. Orlando: -18,268
10. Sacramento: -120,429——————————10. Sacramento: -18,081
11. Kansas City: -119,748——————————11. Portland: -17,875
12. Orlando: -117,771———————————–12. San Antonio: -17,679
13. San Antonio: -117,289——————————13. Kansas City: -17,106
14. Indianapolis: -113,742——————————14. Las Vegas: -16,867
15. Columbus: -108,704——————————–15. Indianapolis: -16,081
16. Las Vegas: -108,003——————————–16. Columbus: -15,833
17. Providence: -107,920——————————-17. Providence: -15,031
18. Nashville: -99,415———————————–18. Nashville: -14,723
19. Virginia Beach: -97,935—————————-19. Milwaukee: -13,399
20. Milwaukee: -95,601———————————20. Jacksonville: -13,288
21. Jacksonville: -86,920——————————-21. San Jose: -11,360
22. San Jose: -73,507———————————–22. Austin: -10,609
23. Austin: -67,704—————————————23. Dayton: -8,359
24. Dayton: -59,736————————————-24. Grand Rapids: -7,674
25. Grand Rapids: -53,725—————————-25. Akron: -7,138
26. Akron: -50,948—————————————26. Youngstown: -6,821
27. Youngstown: -50,302——————————27. Omaha: -6,667
28. Omaha: -47,763————————————-28. Toledo: -5,968
29. Toledo: -42,313————————————-29. Wichita: -5,686
30. Wichita: -40,647————————————30. Des Moines: -4,631
31. Canton: -31,722————————————31. Canton: -4,366
32. Des Moines: -31,563——————————32. Madison: -4,252
33. Madison: -30,385———————————-33. Virginia Beach: -3,280

Total Net Natural Change (Births vs. Deaths) By Metro Census 2010-July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

Census 2010-July 1, 2017———————————July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017
1. Chicago: +367,709—————————————1. Chicago: +43,424
2. Minneapolis: +169,517———————————–2. Minneapolis: +22,283
3. Austin: +121,257——————————————3. Austin: +16,791
4. San Antonio: +119,059———————————-4. San Antonio: +16,639
5. San Jose: +102,717————————————–5. San Jose: +12,466
6. Charlotte: +90,002—————————————-6. Charlotte: +12,306
7. Columbus: +88,481————————————–7. Columbus: +11,830
8. Las Vegas: +86,080————————————-8. Orlando: +10,905
9. Orlando: +83,072—————————————-9. Indianapolis: +10,688
10. Portland: +81,282————————————-10. Las Vegas: +10,582
11. Kansas City: +80,787———————————11. Kansas City: +10,459
12. Indianapolis: +79,857——————————–12. Portland: +10,345
13. Sacramento: +78,037——————————–13. Nashville: +9,967
14. Nashville: +71,409————————————14. Sacramento: +9,067
15. Detroit: +71,030—————————————15. Detroit: +8,865
16. Virginia Beach: +65,852—————————–16. Virginia Beach: +7,762
17. Cincinnati: +60,171———————————–17. Cincinnati: +7,340
18. St. Louis: +60,169————————————-18. Omaha: +6,754
19. Milwaukee: +48,828———————————-19. St. Louis: +6,388
20. Omaha: +48,795————————————–20. Grand Rapids: +5,874
21. Grand Rapids: +44,489—————————–21. Jacksonville: +5,460
22. Jacksonville: +43,419——————————-22. Des Moines: +4,541
23. Des Moines: +32,395——————————-23. Madison: +3,148
24. Wichita: +25,226————————————-24. Milwaukee: +6,075
25. Madison: +23,333———————————–25. Wichita: +3,008
26. Cleveland: +15,223——————————–26. Cleveland: +1,805
27. Providence: +12,606——————————27. Providence: +1,511
28. Toledo: +11,996———————————–28. Toledo: +1,377
29. Dayton: +10,119———————————-29. Dayton: +1,256
30. Akron: +3,696————————————–30. Akron: +204
31. Canton: +477—————————————31. Canton: +68
32. Youngstown: -9,606——————————-32. Youngstown: -1,270
33. Pittsburgh: -24,100——————————–33. Pittsburgh: -3,825

Total Domestic Migration By Metro Census 2010-July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

Census 2010-July 1, 2017———————————July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017
1. Austin: +224,351—————————————–1. Charlotte: +31,102
2. Charlotte: +177,484————————————-2. Austin: +30,120
3. San Antonio: +169,684——————————–3. Las Vegas: +29,414
4. Orlando: +155,498————————————–4. San Antonio: +24,891
5. Nashville: +126,142————————————-5. Orlando: +23,321
6. Las Vegas: +119,742———————————-6. Jacksonville: +18,921
7. Portland: +106,839————————————-7. Nashville: +18,708
8. Jacksonville: +87,040———————————8. Portland: +13,384
9. Sacramento: +49,262———————————9. Sacramento: +12,888
10. Columbus: +42,932———————————10. Columbus: +12,562
11. Des Moines: +32,042——————————-11. Kansas City: +8,531
12. Indianapolis: +30,772——————————-12. Minneapolis: +8,095
13. Kansas City: +16,802——————————-13. Indianapolis: +7,763
14. Madison: +13,224————————————14. Des Moines: +4,812
15. Grand Rapids: +12,355—————————-15. Grand Rapids: +2,217
16. Omaha: +5,265—————————————16. Madison: +1,706
17. Minneapolis: +432———————————–17. Cincinnati: +1,541
18. Canton: -5,797—————————————-18. Omaha: +383
19. Akron: -13,427—————————————-19. Dayton: -346
20. Youngstown: -16,228——————————-20. Akron: -877
21. Dayton: -16,864————————————–21. Canton: -1,469
22. Wichita: -18,452————————————–22. Youngstown: -1,711
23. Cincinnati: -21,259———————————-23. Providence: -2,588
24. Toledo: -23,102————————————–24. Toledo: -3,070
25. Pittsburgh: -24,397———————————25. Wichita: -3,235
26. Providence: -33,335——————————-26. Virginia Beach: -4,706
27. Milwaukee: -50,575——————————–27. Cleveland: -8,008
28. Virginia Beach: -51,916—————————28. Pittsburgh: -8,633
29. Cleveland: -64,353——————————–29. Milwaukee: -9,635
30. St. Louis: -67,560———————————30. St. Louis: -8,828
31. San Jose: -73,026——————————–31. Detroit: -14,863
32. Detroit: -141,006———————————-32. San Jose: -25,729
33. Chicago: -479,482——————————–33. Chicago: -85,177

Total International Migration By Metro Census 2010-July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

Census 2010-July 1, 2017———————————July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017
1. Chicago: +183,162—————————————1. Chicago: +28,302
2. Orlando: +135,860—————————————2. Orlando: +22,207
3. San Jose: +132,938————————————-3. San Jose: +20,747
4. Detroit: +86,366——————————————4. Detroit: +13,214
5. Minneapolis: +83,552———————————-5. Minneapolis: +13,107
6. Sacramento: +49,560———————————-6. Austin: +8,185
7. Austin: +49,311——————————————7. Sacramento: +7,722
8. Las Vegas: +46,411————————————8. Columbus: +7,350
9. Columbus: +45,744————————————9. Las Vegas: +7,221
10. Providence: +41,325——————————–10. Providence: +6,381
11. San Antonio: +40,953——————————-11. Portland: +6,335
12. Charlotte: +39,380———————————–12. Charlotte: +6,279
13. Portland: +38,542————————————13. San Antonio: +6,173
14. Virginia Beach: +34,619—————————-14. Nashville: +5,510
15. Nashville: +33,169———————————–15. Cleveland: +5,045
16. Cleveland: +31,236———————————-16. Indianapolis: +4,603
17. Indianapolis: +30,329——————————-17. Pittsburgh: +4,359
18. Jacksonville: +28,593——————————-18. Cincinnati: +4,285
19. St. Louis: +27,666————————————19. Jacksonville: +4,043
20. Pittsburgh: +27,300———————————20. St. Louis: +4,032
21. Cincinnati: +26,502———————————21. Milwaukee: +3,689
22. Kansas City: +23,098——————————22. Kansas City: +3,572
23. Milwaukee: +22,616——————————–23. Grand Rapids: +2,233
24. Omaha: +14,383————————————24. Omaha: +2,213
25. Grand Rapids: +13,800—————————25. Madison: +1,949
26. Madison: +12,367———————————-26. Des Moines: +1,807
27. Des Moines: +11,592—————————–27. Dayton: +1,654
28. Dayton: +11,230———————————–28. Akron: +1,647
29. Akron: +10,413————————————-29. Wichita: +1,187
30. Wichita: +8,117————————————-30. Virginia Beach: +1,077
31. Toledo: +4,627————————————-31. Toledo: +769
32. Youngstown: +2,171——————————32. Youngstown: +381
33. Canton: +1,118————————————33. Canton: +174

Total Net Migration By Metro Census 2010-July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017

Census 2010-July 1, 2017———————————July 1, 2016-July 1, 2017
1. Orlando: +291,358————————————–1. Orlando: +45,528
2. Austin: +273,662—————————————-2. Austin: +38,305
3. Charlotte: +216,864————————————3. Charlotte: +37,381
4. San Antonio: +210,637——————————–4. Las Vegas: +36,635
5. Las Vegas: +166,153———————————-5. San Antonio: +31,064
6. Nashville: +159,311————————————6. Nashville: +24,218
7. Portland: +145,381————————————7. Jacksonville: +22,964
8. Jacksonville: +115,633——————————-8. Minneapolis: +21,202
9. Sacramento: +98,822——————————–9. Sacramento: +20,610
10. Columbus: +88,676——————————–10. Columbus: +19,912
11. Minneapolis: +83,984——————————11. Portland: +19,719
12. Indianapolis: +61,101——————————12. Indianapolis: +12,366
13. San Jose: +59,912———————————-13. Kansas City: +12,103
14. Des Moines: +43,634——————————14. Des Moines: +6,619
15. Kansas City: +39,900——————————15. Cincinnati: +5,826
16. Grand Rapids: +26,155—————————16. Grand Rapids: +4,450
17. Madison: +25,591———————————-17. Providence: +3,793
18. Omaha: +19,648————————————18. Madison: +3,655
19. Providence: +7,990———————————19. Omaha: +2,596
20. Cincinnati: +5,243———————————-20. Dayton: +1,308
21. Pittsburgh: +2,903———————————-21. Akron: +770
22. Akron: -3,014—————————————-22. Canton: -1,295
23. Canton: -4,679————————————–23. Youngstown: -1,330
24. Dayton: -5,634————————————–24. Detroit: -1,649
25. Wichita: -10,335————————————25. Wichita: -2,048
26. Youngstown: -14,057—————————–26. Toledo: -2,301
27. Virginia Beach: -17,297————————–27. Cleveland: -2,963
28. Toledo: -18,475————————————28. Virginia Beach: -3,629
29. Milwaukee: -27,959——————————29. Pittsburgh: -4,274
30. Cleveland: -33,117——————————-30. San Jose: -4,982
31. St. Louis: -39,894———————————31. St. Louis: -5,796
32. Detroit: -54,640————————————32. Milwaukee: -5,946
33. Chicago: -296,320——————————-33. Chicago: -56,875




The Origins of the Columbus Metro’s Domestic Migration




Top 30 Largest Net Domestic In-Migration Origins (Ohio Counties and States)

Numbers are based on estimates. Updated 1/24/2018 with 2011-2015 data.

2006-2010————————2009-2013—————————-2011-2015
1. Cuyahoga: 1602———-1. Cuyahoga: 1905————–1. Cuyahoga: 1842
2. Montgomery: 1020——-2. Michigan: 1425—————-2. Michigan: 1239
3. Michigan: 893————-3. Montgomery: 1123————3. Montgomery: 1088
4. Maryland: 745————-4. Summit: 744——————–4. Summit: 764
5. Lorain: 740—————–5. Lorain: 715———————-5. Lucas: 626
6. Virginia: 636—————6. Indiana: 694———————6. New Jersey: 608
7. Mahoning: 603————7. Lucas: 569———————–7. New York: 575
8. Stark: 584——————8. Maryland: 512——————-8. Medina: 572
9. Lucas: 554—————–9. Hamilton: 504——————–9. Stark: 484
10. Summit: 531————-10. Clermont: 466—————–10. Trumbull: 465
11. Highland: 499———–11. Stark: 466———————–11. Maryland: 464
12. New Jersey: 497——-12. Arizona: 463——————–12. Allen: 406
13. Hamilton: 483———–13. Alabama: 431——————-13. Washington (state): 399
14. New York: 419———-14. Trumbull: 401——————-14. Erie: 386
15. Allen: 384—————-15. Mahoning: 387——————15. Indiana: 386
16. Tennessee: 375——–16. Fayette: 354———————16. Massachusetts: 384
17. Logan: 328—————17. Washington (state): 353—–17. Pennsylvania: 371
18. Trumbull: 325————18. Coshocton: 346—————-18. Kentucky: 368
19. Coshocton: 310———19. Medina: 322——————–19. W. Virginia: 339
20. Jefferson: 290———–20. Allen: 302————————20. Lake: 316
21. Scioto: 259—————21. Erie: 290————————-21. Belmont: 314
22. Belmont: 254————22. Highland: 270——————-22. Wayne: 298
23. Huron: 245—————23. Puerto Rico: 265—————23. Fayette: 290
24. Darke: 217—————24. Adams: 260———————24. Mahoning: 289
25. Lake: 212—————-25. Warren: 260———————25. New Hampshire: 288
26. Tuscarawas: 202——-26. Massachusetts: 259———-26. Alaska: 282
27. Iowa: 200—————–27. Wayne: 259———————27. Alabama: 280
28. Shelby: 199————–28. Morgan: 255——————–28. Lorain: 277
29. Medina: 196————-29. Tuscarawas: 253————–29. Tuscarawas: 277
30. Massachusetts: 192—30. Ashtabula: 244—————–30. Geauga: 261

Top 30 Largest Net Domestic Out-Migration Destinations (Ohio counties and States)

2006-2010——————————-2009-2013—————————-2011-2015
1. Texas: -1371———————-1. Georgia: -1024—————-1. Florida: -1333
2. Knox: -942————————-2. Florida: -1013——————2. Missouri: -703
3. North Carolina: -782————3. Greene: -524——————-3. Georgia: -680
4. Georgia: -718———————4. Missouri: -516——————4. Athens: -607
5. Athens: -679———————-5. Colorado: -448—————–5. Knox: -506
6. Kentucky: -516——————-6. California: -436—————–6. Tennessee: -442
7. South Carolina: -499———–7. South Carolina: -431———-7. Colorado: -435
8. California: -364——————-8. Knox: -418———————-8. California: -391
9. Florida: -360———————-9. North Carolina: -417———-9. Greene: -388
10. Wood: -351———————10. Wisconsin: -395————–10. South Carolina: -362
11. Richland: -344——————11. Athens: -336——————11. Marion: -329
12. Greene: -239——————–12. Minnesota: -308————-12. Hamilton: -312
13. West Virginia: -236————13. Utah: -290———————13. Logan: -306
14. Missouri: -219——————-14. Richland: -266—————14. Utah: -300
15. Crawford: -209——————15. Portage: -265—————–15. Wood: -282
16. Hardin: -179———————16. Kentucky: -257—————16. Scioto: -249
17. Noble: -177———————-17. Logan: -242——————-17. Seneca: -183
18. Muskingum: -175—————18. Pennsylvania: -242———18. Champaign: -174
19. Butler: -173———————-19. Tennessee: -200————19. Oregon: -158
20. Holmes: -163——————–20. Oregon: -187—————-20. New Mexico: -157
21. Marion: -138———————21. Wood: -166——————21. Meigs: -150
22. Portage: -134——————-22. Sandusky: -157————–22. Mississippi: -146
23. Ottawa: -131——————–23. Mississippi: -151————-23. Portage: -142
24. Sandusky: -124—————-24. Jefferson: -127—————24. Idaho: -137
25. Oregon: -120——————-25. Kansas: -98——————-25. Minnesota: -125
26. Indiana: -116——————-26. Delaware (state): -88——-26. North Dakota: -112
27. Idaho: -115———————27. Idaho: -74———————-27. Wisconsin: -111
28. Utah: -103———————- 28. Crawford: -73—————–28. Darke: -103
29. Fayette: -93———————29. Hardin: -68——————–29. Texas: -95
30. Kansas: -90———————30. Seneca: -66——————-30. Hardin: -87

Top 25 Largest Positive Swings Between 2006-2010 and 2011-2015
1. Texas: +1276
2. North Carolina: +982
3. Kentucky: +884
4. West Virginia: +575
5. Indiana: +502
6. Washington (state): +466
7. Knox: +436
8. Richland: +406
9. Butler: +395
10. Fayette: +383
11. Medina: +376
12. Alaska: +364
13. Michigan: +346
14. Alabama: +298
15. Clinton: +282
16. Erie: +263
17. New Hampshire: +261
18. Lawrence: +241
19. Cuyahoga: +240
20. Summit: +233
21. Wayne: +226
22. Crawford: +221
23. Muskingum: +211
24. Clermont: +198
25. Nevada: +197

Top 25 Largest Negative Swings Between 2006-2010 and 2011-2015
1. Florida: -973
2. Tennessee: -817
3. Hamilton: -795
4. Logan: -634
5. Colorado: -598
6. Scioto: -508
7. Highland: -491
8. Missouri: -484
9. Lorain: -463
10. Virginia: -437
11. Darke: -320
12. Mahoning: -314
13. Champaign: -310
14. Jefferson: -301
15. Maryland: -281
16. New Mexico: -261
17. Minnesota: -249
19. Coshocton: -233
20. Washington (county): -208
21. Ashland: -202
22. Utah: -197
23. Marion: -191
24. Seneca: -181
25. Iowa: -158

Total Counts By Period
Positive Ohio Counties
2006-2010: 53
2009-2013: 57
2011-2015: 50

Positive States, including DC and Puerto Rico
2006-2010: 21
2009-2013: 24
2011-2015: 28

Total Net In-Migration
Ohio
2006-2010: +8,008
2009-2013: +11,366
2011-2015: +7,895

Outside Ohio
2006-2010: -1,158
2009-2013: -466
2011-2015: +1,598

Ohio and Outside Ohio
2006-2010: +6,850
2009-2013: +10,900
2011-2015: +9,493

All these figures show that the Columbus metro has net positive domestic migration. While the majority of that comes from within the state, Columbus’ previously negative net total from outside the state has more recently become positive as well. For a long time, Columbus’ relative success was not well-known outside of the state, but perhaps word is finally getting out.

For a lot more Columbus demographic information, check out: Columbus Demographics




Where Racial Groups are Growing Fastest in Franklin County




The US Census recently released updated estimates for 2016 for smaller-area designations like tracts and blocks. Looking at them, I wanted to see where individual racial groups were growing the fastest at that level.
The first map is based on the % change from 2010 to 2016.

What’s interesting about this map is that it is such a hodgepodge. No single part of the county is dominated by growth in any specific racial group. However, a few things can be generally determined. For example, almost all of the tracts where the White population is growing the fastest are within I-270, and the majority of those within the eastern half of the Columbus in what have long been dominated by Black majority populations. These areas include parts of Linden, the Near South and Near East sides. That said, the White population was growing the fastest in just 30 census tracts by % change. This compared to 53 for the Black population, 83 for the Asian population and 107 for the Hispanic population.

The next map takes a slightly different approach, measuring the TOTAL change in population, rather than by %.

Again, a hodgepodge, but much less so than before. Instead of being the fastest-growing in just 30 tracts, the White population rockets up to 108 tracts. This shows that, while Asian and Hispanic populations have respectable % growth, this is largely based on comparatively small population bases. Still, non-White populations are clearly making inroads throughout Franklin County.

For more information on demographics, go to: Columbus Demographics
And for Franklin County racial and economic maps, go to: Census Tract and Zip Code Maps