2015 Metro Area Population Estimates and Peer Comparison

As promised, here is the information for the Columbus metro, its national peers and major Midwest metros.

2015 Metro Population Estimates
Chicago, IL: 9,551,031
Detroit, MI: 4,302,043
Minneapolis, MN: 3,524,583
St. Louis, MO: 2,811,588
Charlotte, NC: 2,426,363
Portland, OR: 2,389,228
Orlando, FL: 2,387,138
San Antonio, TX: 2,384,075
Pittsburgh, PA: 2,353,045
Sacramento, CA: 2,274,194
Cincinnati: 2,157,719
Las Vegas, NV: 2,114,801
Kansas City, MO: 2,087,471
Cleveland: 2,060,810
Columbus: 2,021,632
Austin, TX: 2,000,860
Indianapolis: 1,988,817
San Jose, CA: 1,976,836
Nashville, TN: 1,830,345
Virginia Beach, VA: 1,724,876
Providence, RI: 1,613,070
Milwaukee, WI: 1,575,747
Grand Rapids, MI: 1,038,583
Omaha, NE: 915,312
Dayton: 800,909
Akron: 704,243
Toledo: 605,956
Youngstown: 549,885


Components of Metro Area Population Change

As you can see, while Columbus has a middle of the road birth rate for its peers, its relatively low death rate means that it manages to be near the top of the its peer group in natural growth.

It seems that while international migration is competitive with peers in the Columbus metro, domestic migration would need to improve to truly be at the upper peer level. At the very least, it is positive.

2015 County Population Estimates Report

The US Census has released its population estimates for both counties and metros for the year ending July 1, 2015. Here is a detailed look at Ohio’s counties.

Ohio’s Top 25 Largest Counties

2010……………………………….2014………………………………..2015
1. Cuyahoga: 1,280,109….1. Cuyahoga: 1,263,796……1. Cuyahoga: 1,255,921
2. Franklin: 1,163,545……..2. Franklin: 1,234,126………2. Franklin: 1,251,722
3. Hamilton: 802,270……….3. Hamilton: 806,332……….3. Hamilton: 807,598
4. Summit: 541,671………..4. Summit: 542,600………….4. Summit: 541,968
5. Montgomery: 536,216….5. Montgomery: 532,515…..5. Montgomery: 532,258
6. Lucas: 441,575…………..6. Lucas: 434,615…………….6. Lucas: 433,689
7. Stark: 375,461…………….7. Stark: 375,638…………….7. Butler: 376,353
8. Butler: 369,064…………..8. Butler: 373,948…………….8. Stark: 375,165
9. Lorain: 301,471…………..9. Lorain: 304,187……………9. Lorain:305,147
10. Mahoning: 238,398……10. Mahoning: 233,398…….10. Mahoning: 231,900
11. Lake: 230,004…………..11. Lake: 229,220……………11. Lake: 229,245
12. Warren: 213,524………..12. Warren: 221,816………..12. Warren: 224,469
13. Trumbull: 209,854………13. Trumbull: 205,255……..13. Trumbull: 203,751
14. Clermont: 197,795……..14. Clermont: 201,375……..14. Clermont: 201,973
15. Delaware: 175,146……..15. Delaware: 189,237…….15. Delaware: 193,0134
16. Medina: 172,542………..16. Medina: 175,963………..16. Medina: 176,395
17. Licking: 166,480…………17. Licking: 169,407………..17. Licking: 170,570
18. Greene: 161,608………..18. Greene: 164,660………..18. Greene: 164,427
19. Portage: 161,448……….19. Portage: 162,235………..19. Porage: 162,275
20. Fairfield: 146,385……….20. Fairfield: 150,432………..20. Fairfield: 151,408
21. Clark: 148,246…………..21. Clark: 136,482……………21. Clark: 135,959
22. Wood: 125,940………….22. Wood: 129,575…………..22. Wood: 129,730
23. Richland: 124,173……..23. Richland: 121,914……….23. Richland: 121,707
24. Wayne: 114,439………..24. Wayne: 115,572………….24. Wayne: 116,063
25. Columbiana: 107,863…25. Columbiana: 105,597…..25. Columbiana: 104,806

From the numbers above, Columbus’ Franklin County was just below Cuyahoga last year. It is likely that, given each county’s growth rates, Franklin has now passed up Cuyahoga to become Ohio’s most populated county.

Top 25 Total Growth Counties 2010-2015

1. Franklin: +88,177
2. Delaware: +18,824
3. Warren: +11,601
4. Butler: +8,223
5. Fairfield: +5,256
6. Hamilton: +5,224
7. Clermont: +4,610
8. Wood: +4,242
9. Licking: +4,090
10. Medina: +4,062
11. Lorain: +3,791
12. Greene: +2,858
13. Union: +2,010
14. Miami: +1,718
15. Wayne: +1,549
16. Holmes: +1,543
17. Pickaway: +1,300
18. Athens: +1,113
19. Portage: +854
20. Hancock: +791
21. Geauga: +692
22. Madison: +664
23. Tuscarawas: +334
24. Morrow: +247
25. Muskingum: +216



Components of County Population Change

Top 25 Counties for Natural Growth (Births vs. Deaths) 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +50,736
2. Hamilton: +17,256
3. Butler: +7,785
4. Cuyahoga: +7,409
5. Lucas: +7,053
6. Delaware: +6,260
7. Montgomery: +5,007
8. Warren: +4,688
9. Clermont: +3,987
10. Summit: +3,194
11. Fairfield: +2,676
12. Lorain: +2,630
13. Holmes: +2,613
14. Wayne: +2,554
15. Licking: +2,482
16. Greene: +2,309
17. Medina: +2,040
18. Wood: +1,824
19. Union: +1,475
20. Hancock: +1,196
21. Allen: +1,115
22. Shelby: +1,038
23. Miami: +902
24. Putnam: +849
25. Huron: +815

Franklin County’s natural growth rate destroys every other county in the state. It gains almost 7x that of Cuyahoga County, despite Cuyahoga having a larger population during this period, and nearly 3x that of Hamilton County.

Top 25 Counties for Domestic Migration 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +11,715
2. Delaware: +10,532
3. Warren: +4,496
4. Fairfield: +1,691
5. Licking: +1,249
6. Medina: +1,234
7. Wood: +1,120
8. Pickaway: +711
9. Miami: +475
10. Union: +249
11. Madison: +246
12. Ottawa: +5
13. Clermont: -39
14. Morrow: -159
15. Morgan: -162
16. Monroe: -167
17. Washington: -177
18. Harrison: -198
19. Belmont: -221
20. Geauga: -320
21. Vinton: -361
22. Meigs: -401
23. Noble: -421
24. Van Wert: -431
25. Perry: -464

Again, Franklin County leads the pack, with Columbus metro counties performing the best statewide, as shown in the map below.

Top 25 Counties for International Migration 2010-2015
1. Franklin: +26,977
2. Cuyahoga: +16,926
3. Hamilton: +9,016
4. Montgomery: +5,380
5. Summit: +5,307
6. Butler: +4,066
7. Greene: +2,400
8. Lorain: +2,303
9. Warren: +2,198
10. Lucas: +2,194
11. Portage: +1,991
12. Delaware: +1,610
13. Athens: +1,586
14. Mahoning: +1,383
15. Wood: +1,026
16. Stark: +881
17. Lake: +729
18. Fairfield: +658
19. Clermont: +612
20. Medina: +578
21. Tuscarawas: +468
22. Wayne: +408
23. Licking: +404
24. Allen: +375
25. Miami: +359

Most Ohio counties saw increases in international migration, but once again, none came close to Franklin County’s total.

So there you have it, the updated numbers for Ohio’s counties.

March 7-8, 2008- Columbus’ Greatest Snowstorm

**Originally posted on 12/29/12.
On the eve of the anniversary of Columbus’ biggest snowstorm, I thought I would repost this. Makes you appreciate just how mild and uneventful Winter 2015-2016 has been, doesn’t it?

More than one week prior to the Blizzard of 2008, models had been hinting at a significant storm somewhere in the eastern US. Initially, models took the storm up the East Coast, but as the storm neared, models moved it further and further west and settled upon a track just west/just along the spine of the Appalachians. The track waffled for days, but never strayed far from the Appalachian track. Because the storm was originating near the Gulf of Mexico, models were showing the storm pulling vast amounts of moisture north into cold air over the Ohio Valley. Simply put, the track and conditions were being forecast to be perfect for a significant Ohio snowstorm.

Local forecasters, however, weren’t buying it… at least not at first. Four days before the storm, neither the NWS nor the television forecasters were calling for a significant event. The winter of 2007-08 had brought several storm busts, and none of them seemed ready to buy into another one. So right up to 24-36 hours before the event began, forecasters were calling for 6″ maximum north and west of the I-71 corridor with a mix along the corridor and mostly rain to the south and east. So, right up until the end, many Ohioans were led to believe that this would be a large, but still a run-of-the-mill, snow event.

My personal account of the storm:

On Thursday, March 6th, I worked a 12-hour day at my store. Customers were talking about forecasts of 4-8″, which in central Ohio is significant in and of itself. We typically get one or two 6″ storms, but rarely up to 8″ and almost never more than that. In fact, in all of Columbus history, there have been less than a dozen snow events that broke double digits. Still, in the talking there were whispers that the storm would be more significant. By Thursday night when I arrived home, I discovered the radar was lit up over the South with a growing area of precipitation heading north. Temperatures had already cooled into the low 30s as a cold front had moved through during the day. Forecasts had changed late in the afternoon, and there were many calls of 6-10″ along I-71 by Sunday.

Friday, March 7th was my day off, and I woke up before 8am in the excitement and inticipation of the impending snow. The radar was showing returns north of the Ohio River then and it was already snowing in Cincinnati. Finally, at 9:05am, flurries began to fall and quickly intensified to a steady, windblown snow. A 9:30, I left the house to go to the store. By the time I reached it, the snow had turned heavy and was accumulating quickly. Visibility had dropped to a 1/4 mile at times and many roads were already snowcovered by the time I reached home.

The snow continued throughout the day and forecasts kept changing, finally settling on 10-15″ along the I-71 corridor with little to no mixing. Meanwhile, the snow continued into the evening and overnight hours of the 7th. Although it did lighten somewhat towards midnight, it never completely stopped. By midnight, in any case, 5-7″ had fallen throughout Columbus and central Ohio, which set a daily record.

Saturday, March 8th dawned very wintry. By dawn, no less than 10″ was on the ground and the snow was continuing to fall heavily. Overnight, blizzard warnings had gone up for all of the NWS Wilmington forecast zone as winds were expected to increase during the day. Winds were generally sustained near 20mph in the morning and increased during the late morning/early afternoon. Heavy snow and winds combined to create total whiteout conditions at times, and every county along I-71 from Cincinatti to Cleveland went under a level 2 or level 3 snow emergency.

At 11am, I went for a walk in the snow. It was still falling heavily and roads were nearly impassable with deep snow. Cars in some cases were buried in snow.

By 2pm, a break in the snowfall came as the low moved to the east of Ohio. When it moved into New York, wraparound snow moved back into the area for 3-4 more hours before ending by 6:30pm Saturday afternoon. The sun even poked through the clouds as it set, producing a very picturesque and beautiful winter scene. A fitting end to the day.

All in all, it was a record setting snowstorm all across the state. Columbus’ 20.5″ of snowfall, including 15.5″ on Saturday alone, was the greatest snowstorm of all time for the city. It also established the greatest 24-hour snowfall and the greatest snow depth ever recorded at 18″. No part of the state was spared, as all major cities except Toledo had 10″ or more. Drifts of 5-7 feet deep were reported in many areas.

The storm also brought some areas of the state to record territory in total seasonal snowfall.

Incidentally, 30 years and 2 months prior, the Great Blizzard of 1978 struck. It is somewhat of note that Ohio’s greatest blizzards on record occurred during the “8” years. 1918, 1978, and now 2008.

The first image below is a model snow depth forecast ending on March 9th. The second is a photo of the heavy snow in Columbus during the evening of the 7th.
Forecasted snowfall-March 5, 2008
382008_1.gif

Here are some videos during the storm.
Dayton Area
https://youtu.be/sEJ5diRfP88
Cleveland Area
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxS60SYXn24
Columbus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpgKmawafwk