El Niño and Columbus Winter History




Columbus winter history El Niño

A small snow event should affect the Columbus area today into tomorrow morning, with forecasts calling for up to 2″ of snow when all’s said and done. While by no means a significant event, it could end up being one of the largest snowfalls of the entire 2023-2024 winter season. The reason- El Niño.

El Niño winters in Ohio tend to be much warmer than normal with much below normal snowfall. This is especially true when the El Niño is moderate to strong, as it is now. Let’s take a look back at how different ENSO states (or El Nino Southern Oscillation) produced different results in Columbus winter history.

ENSO conditions come in 3 different forms- El Niño, which is when the Equatorial Pacific is warmer than normal, Neutral, when the waters are neither cold nor warm, and La Niña, which features colder than normal Equatorial Pacific waters.
Since the 1950-1951 season, there have been 24 Neutral seasons, 25 La Niña seasons and 25 El Niño seasons, so the breakdown has been very even. Because there is a lag because Pacific water temperatures and atmospheric response, the conditions that affect winter weather can typically be traced back to Fall water temperatures rather than winter. To see how 2023-2024 might shape up, we have to look at the September-October-November Pacific water temperature anomalies. During that time, the anomaly was +1.8. Which seasons had an anomaly of +1.5 to +2 during September-October-November? As it turns out, not very many- only 1965, 1972, 1982 and 1987.

How were those 4 subsequent winters in terms of temperature and snowfall?
Mean Temperature
1965-1966: 29.4
1972-1973: 32.8
1982-1983: 34.7
1987-1988: 30.5
Avg: 31.9
Temperatures overall were somewhat split, with 2 winters being slightly below normal and 2 winters with well-above normal temperatures, with the average of the 4 being slightly above.
Snowfall
1965-1966: 17.5″
1972-1973: 24.5″
1982-1983: 11.5″
1987-1988: 23.9″
Avg: 19.4″
Snowfall was well below normal in all 4 seasons, with an average of about 8″ below normal.
The snowfall that did fall typically came in 1-2 moderate events with very little otherwise.
1965-1966
5.9″ 1/22/66
3.7″ 2/1/66
1.2″ 1/29/66
1965-1966 had a few moderate events, but the 3 days here were the only 3 days during the entire winter that featured an inch or more of daily snowfall. This winter also occurred during a generally snowier, colder decade.
1972-1973
6.3″ 4/12/1973
4.0″ 11/30/1972
2.1″ 3/17/1973
1972-1973 again featured a few moderate events as well that contained the bulk of the season’s snow. The interesting thing about this winter is that those events occurred outside of the main December-January-February heart of winter.
1982-1983
1.9″ 2/6/1983, 3/11/1983
1.1″ 1/15/1983
1.0″ 12/10/1982
1982-1983 ended up being what’s called a Super ENSO event, with a very strong El Niño. Temperatures were very warm the entire winter, and snowfall was less than 50% of normal.
1987-1988
4.7″ 1/25/1988
1.8″ 12/3/1987
1.6″ 2/11/1988
1987-1988 only had a single moderate event, with most other snowfalls during the season amounting to a few tenths.

Bottom line: Don’t expect major snowfalls this winter.

Now, these are just 4 seasons. Other slightly stronger or weaker El Niño seasons produced very different results. Furthermore, the orientation of where the warmest water is in the Pacific can have very different outcomes. For example, if the warmer water is hugging the coast of South America, winters tend to be warmer and snowless, but if that warmer water is centered further west in the Pacific, winters can be very cold and snowy. For example, both the winters of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were west-based El Niño seasons, and they were historically snowy and cold winters. 2023-2024 is decidedly an east-based Niño, however, so it’s unlikely we will see anything but a rather boring winter with warmer than normal temperatures and below average snowfall. Obviously, depending on your viewpoint, that could be a very good thing.

Winter 2022-2023 Review




Winter 2022-2023 Review

A scene largely absent from the 2022-2023 winter.

The Winter 2022-2023 Review shows that the season was one of the warmest ever recorded for Columbus, with near consistent above average- and sometimes record-breaking temperatures. Snow, as a consequence, was well below average.

The rankings below are good through the 2022-2023 season.

December-February Only
Average High: 45.8 4th Warmest
Average Low: 29.4 7th Warmest
Mean: 37.6 5th Warmest
Precipitation: 7.80″ 62nd Wettest
Snowfall: 11.2″ 30th Least Snowy
Average Daily Snow Depth: 0.3″ Tied for 4th Lowest
Largest Snowstorm: 4.9″ on 12/23/2022
# of 32 or Below Highs: 10 5th Fewest
# of 32 or Below Lows: 51 Tied for 4th Fewest
# of Measurable Precipitation Days: 40 Tied for 13th Most
# of Measurable Snowfall Days: 10 Tied for 6th Fewest
Highest Average Daily Wind Speed in MPH: 23.3 on 12/23/2022
Highest Wind Gust in MPH: 54 on 1/19/2023
# of Clear Days: 6 6.67%
# of Partly Cloudy Days: 38 42.22%
# of Cloudy Days: 46 51.11%

Early winter ended up being the coldest and snowiest part of the season, with every subsequent month getting warmer. There were very few freezing days during the heart of the winter, and despite a somewhat stormy pattern with seemingly endless windy days, there was relatively little precipitation.

The biggest snowstorm was on December 23rd, when a very strong low pressure system and cold front brought heavy snow and very cold temperatures, making for one of the coldest Christmas Eves and Days in many years.

Entire Cold Season: October-April
Average High: 53.8 3rd Warmest
Average Low: 34.5 Tied for 14th Warmest
Mean: 44.1 Tied for 6th Warmest
Precipitation: 19.13″ 63rd Driest
Snowfall: 14.5″ Tied for 21st Least Snowy
Average Snow Depth: 0.1″ Tied for 2nd Lowest
Largest Snowstorm: 4.9″ on 12/23/2022
# of 32 or Below Highs: 11 Tied for 2nd Fewest
# of 32 or Below Lows: 83 6th Fewest
# of Measurable Precipitation Days: 79 Tied for 14th Fewest
# of Measurable Snowfall Days: 15 Tied for 6th Fewest
Highest Average Daily Wind Speed in MPH: 23.3 on 12/23/2022
Highest Wind Gust in MPH: 59 on 3/3/2023
# of Clear Days: 30 14.15%
# of Partly Cloudy Days: 95 44.81%
# of Cloudy Days: 87 41.04%

The entire cold season didn’t really live up to its name. All months except October ended up above normal. Now let’s break down those months individually.

Average High By Month
October 2022: 65.6 44th Warmest
November 2022: 54.6 Tied for 19th Warmest
December 2022: 41.8 Tied for 36th Warmest
January 2023: 43.8 13th Warmest
February 2023: 52.3 1st Warmest
March 2023: 52.6 33rd Warmest
April 2023: 65.7 20th Warmest

February, 2023 had the warmest average high mean on record, beating the next closest year- 2017- by 0.5 degrees.

Average Low By Month
October 2022: 42.7 Tied for 28th Coldest
November 2022: 36.0 29th Warmest
December 2022: 27.4 Tied for 40th Warmest
January 2023: 31.0 6th Warmest
February 2023: 30.0 10th Warmest
March 2023: 32.1 Tied for 45th Warmest
April 2023: 42.0 Tied for 35th Warmest

Mean By Month
October 2022: 54.1 Tied for 33rd Coldest
November 2022: 45.3 Tied for 18th Warmest
December 2022: 34.6 Tied for 37th Warmest
January 2023: 37.4 10th Warmest
February 2023: 41.1 3rd Warmest
March 2023: 42.4 Tied for 40th Warmest
April 2023: 53.9 Tied for 23rd Warmest

Precipitation By Month
October 2022: 0.60″ 11th Driest
November 2022: 2.34″ 58th Driest
December 2022: 2.02″ 39th Driest
January 2023: 4.16″ 28th Wettest
February 2023: 1.62″ Tied for 41st Driest
March 2023: 5.22″ 17th Wettest
April 2023: 3.17″ Tied for 64th Wettest

Snowfall By Month
October 2022: Trace Tied for 2nd Least Snowy
November 2022: 0.3″ Tied for 5th Least Snowy
December 2022: 5.8″ 38th Snowiest
January 2023: 5.4″ Tied for 39th Least Snowy
February 2023: Trace 1st Least Snowy
March 2023: 1.0″ Tied for 10th Least Snowy
April 2023: Trace Tied for 2nd Least Snowy

February’s Trace was the lowest ever recorded for the month.

Average Snow Depth By Month
October 2022: 0.0″
November 2022: 0.0″
December 2022: 0.7″
January 2023: 0.1″
February 2023: 0.0″
March 2023: 0.0″
April 2023: 0.0″



Maximum High By Month
October 2022: 77 on the 6th, 23rd and 24th
November 2022: 77 on the 5th
December 2022: 65 on the 30th
January 2023: 62 on the 3rd
February 2023: 73 on the 23rd
March 2023: 75 on the 1st
April 2023: 84 on the 20th

Maximum High Records
-The 77 on November 5th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 76 set in 1977.
– The 65 on December 30th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 63 set in 1964.
-The 72 on February 9th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 66 set in 2001.
-The 72 on February 15th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 70 set in 1954.
-The 73 on February 23rd was a record for the date, beating the old record of 72 set in 2017.
-The 75 on March 1st was a record for the date, beating the old record of 65 set in 1972 and 1997.

Minimum High By Month
October 2022: 45 on the 18th
November 2022: 30 on the 20th
December 2022: 14 on the 24th
January 2023: 26 on the 31st
February 2023: 30 on the 1st
March 2023: 33 on the 14th
April 2023: 46 on the 2nd and 17th

Maximum Low By Month
October 2022: 57 on the 31st
November 2022: 62 on the 5th
December 2022: 54 on the 30th
January 2023: 56 on the 3rd
February 2023: 47 on the 15th
March 2023: 47 on the 23rd
April 2023: 60 on the 5th

Maximum Low Records
-The 62 on November 6th was a record for the date, beating the old record of 61 set in 1977.
-The 49 on January 2nd tied the record for the date, matching 1997, 2000 and 2005.
-The 56 on January 3rd was a record for the date, beating the old record of 55 set in 1997.

Minimum Low By Month
October 2022: 32 on the 20th
November 2022: 17 on the 20th
December 2022: -7 on the 23rd
January 2023: 16 on the 15th
February 2023: 12 on the 4th
March 2023: 18 on the 19th
April 2023: 29 on the 25th

Highest Daily Precipitation by Month
October 2022: 0.15″ on the 12th and 30th
November 2022: 1.14″ on the 11th
December 2022: 0.44″ on the 15th
January 2023: 0.73″ on the 12th
February 2023: 0.73″ on the 27th
March 2023: 1.6″ on the 3rd
April 2023: 0.91″ on the 5th

Precipitation Records
-The 1.14″ on November 11th set a record for the date, beating the old record of 1.03″ set in 1995.
-The 1.60″ on March 3rd set a record for the date, beating the old record of 1.31″ set in 2020.

Highest Daily Snowfall By Month
October 2022: Trace on the 18th
November 2022: 0.2″ on the 12th
December 2022: 4.9″ on the 23rd
January 2023: 3.0″ on the 22nd
February 2023: Trace on the 3rd and 17th
March 2023: 0.4″ on the 12th and 13th
April 2023: Trace on the 17th

Deepest Snow Depth By Month
October 2022: 0.0″
November 2022: Trace on the 13th
December 2022: 4″ on the 23rd, 24th, 25th and 27th
January 2023: 2″ on the 23rd
February 2023: Trace on the 1st
March 2023: 1″ on the 14th
April 2023: 0.0″

Average Daily Wind Speed by Month in MPH
October 2022: 7.9
November 2022: 8.2
December 2022: 8.0
January 2023: 8.4
February 2023: 9.7
March 2023: 10.0
April 2023: 8.1

Highest Wind Gust by Month in MPH
October 2022: 38 on the 26th
November 2022: 44 on the 27th and 30th
December 2022: 46 on the 23rd
January 2023: 54 on the 19th
February 2023: 49 on the 9th
March 2023: 59 on the 3rd
April 2023: 50 on the 1st

Clear Days by Month
October 2022: 8 25.81%
November 2022: 6 20.0%
December 2022: 2 6.45%
January 2023: 0 0.0%
February 2023: 4 14.29%
March 2023: 5 16.13%
April 2023: 5 16.67%

Partly Cloudy Days by Month
October 2022: 17 54.84%
November 2022: 13 43.33%
December 2022: 10 32.26%
January 2023: 13 41.94%
February 2023: 15 53.57%
March 2023: 15 48.39%
April 2023: 12 40.0%

Cloudy Days by Month
October 2022: 6 19.35%
November 2022: 11 36.67%
December 2022: 19 61.29%
January 2023: 18 58.06%
February 2023: 9 32.14%
March 2023: 11 35.48%
April 2023: 13 43.33%